Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect 22–23 Republican governors after the 2026 midterm elections, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has been static, trading sideways within an exceptionally narrow 100-basis-point range between 2.9% and 3.9%. The current price of 3.8% is near the high of this range and slightly above its 3.6% starting point. There have been no significant price movements or identifiable trends. Technical levels of support and resistance are not meaningful given the tight range and complete lack of trading activity.
The most critical data point is the trade volume, which is zero. This indicates an entirely illiquid market where the price reflects a theoretical probability set by a market maker, not a consensus formed through active trading. The lack of price fluctuation corresponds to the absence of any market-moving news or shifts in the broader political environment that would justify a re-pricing of the outcome. Market conviction is non-existent, as no capital has been committed to either side of the proposition.
The stable, low probability assigned to a "YES" vote suggests the market sees a Republican drop to fewer than 22 governorships as a remote possibility. Republicans currently hold 26 governorships, meaning a net loss of five or more seats would be required for the contract to resolve as YES. The pricing reflects that this is considered a high bar. Without any trading volume, the chart simply represents a baseline assessment that has not been challenged or confirmed by market participants.
  • 22–23 Republican governors appear likely from historical midterm losses for the President's party.
  • President Trump's low approval rating points to a likely net loss of 3–4 Republican governorships.
  • Fewer than 22 Republican governors remain possible given strong national headwinds.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
28–29 3.0% 2.3% Unforeseen state dynamics or Democratic missteps could theoretically lead to unexpected Republican gains.
<22 18.0% 24.1% President Trump's low approval rating and Democratic polling lead suggest potential for significant losses.
24–25 28.0% 27.2% A 1-2 seat loss is consistent with the president's party facing expected midterm headwinds.
26–27 18.0% 12.7% State-level factors and strong candidates may insulate Republicans from national headwinds.
32+ 0.8% 0.7% A sudden shift in voter sentiment or highly favorable state outcomes could lead to significant gains.

Current Context

As of August 6, 2026, Republicans hold a majority of governorships. There are currently 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors in the United States [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will feature 36 gubernatorial races [10][1][2][11][12]. These elections involve 18 seats presently held by Republicans and 18 seats held by Democrats [10][1][2][11][12].
Prediction markets offer early indications, but the final count remains uncertain. As of late July 2026, prediction markets estimated a post-election distribution of 25 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors, with one seat classified as a toss-up [6]. The 2026 midterm elections have not yet occurred, so the total number of Republican governors post-election is undetermined as of today's date, August 6, 2026 [2][13][8][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 12026 Governors and Legislatures | MultiStatemultistate.us
  2. 2Gubernatorial elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Current U.S. governors | List, Names, Parties, States, & Mapbritannica.com
  4. 4Governor – Inside Electionsinsideelections.com
  5. 52026 Governorsmultistate.us
  6. 62026 Governor Elections Map270towin.com
  7. 7A look at this year's gubernatorial battlegrounds - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8State executive offices - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  9. 9Daily Brew: February 18, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  10. 102026 Midterm Election Results: Senate, House and Governor Races | AP Newsapnews.com
  11. 11Gubernatorial Elections - Governorsnga.org
  12. 122026 Governor's Chairs by Statethegreenpapers.com
  13. 13State executive official elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  14. 14State executive officials - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For this Kalshi prediction market, a "YES" resolution for a specific range of Republican governors occurs if the final count, following the November 3, 2026 midterm elections and all necessary runoffs, falls within that range; otherwise, it resolves "NO". The count includes all gubernatorial and special elections scheduled by October 31, 2026, with vacant seats without a 2026 election attributed to the most recent incumbent's party. Resolution is based on the consensus of the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification if consensus is not reached.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
22–23 $0.31 $0.70 31%
24–25 $0.30 $0.72 28%
<22 $0.22 $0.81 18%
26–27 $0.19 $0.82 18%
28–29 $0.04 $0.97 3%
32+ $0.01 $1.00 1%
30–31 $0.01 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

The market currently predicts Republicans will hold between 22 and 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections, a slight decrease from their current 26. Traders anticipating fewer Republican governors argue that Trump-aligned candidates will be vulnerable due to negative national conditions and a suburban swing against "MAGA extremism," boosted by high youth turnout. Conversely, the leading market probabilities reflect an expectation of modest net changes, driven by a mix of toss-up races and solid Republican holds balancing out potential shifts.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 72 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good

Resolution quality is low (60), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score46High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score72Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 4 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Screened clean
Participant influenceNo conflicted participant detected. Clear
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
58Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

7 contracts · worst first

32+29
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

30–3141
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

22–2352
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

<2252
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 10% vs realized 2%
28–2954
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 61% vs realized 3%
24–2560
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

26–27—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

7 contracts · worst first

22–23—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

<22—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

24–25—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

26–27—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

28–29—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

30–31—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

32+—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

7 contracts · worst first

22–23100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
<22100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
24–25100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
26–27100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
28–29100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
30–31100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
32+100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
46High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 58 (notional-weighted across 6 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.3c slippage (~6% of a 21c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

22–2352Market scoreLiquidity52Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 52
Liquidity
52 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
<2252Market scoreLiquidity52Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 52
Liquidity
52 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 10% vs realized 2%
Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
24–2560Market scoreLiquidity60Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 60
Liquidity
60 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
26–27–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
28–2954Market scoreLiquidity54Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 54
Liquidity
54 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 61% vs realized 3%
Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
30–3141Market scoreLiquidity41Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 41
Liquidity
41 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
32+29Market scoreLiquidity29Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 29
Liquidity
29 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 20, 2026

5. How might the national political climate and the President's approval rating in mid-2026 influence voter sentiment in key gubernatorial swing states like Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania?

President Trump Approval32%-39% (late July 2026) [1][2][3]
President Trump Disapprovalup to 66% (early August 2026) [1][2][3]
Democratic Congressional Leadup to 8% (May 2026) [4][5]
President Trump's historically low approval rating creates significant midterm challenges. As of early August 2026, the President's job approval rating is historically low, with recent polling in late July 2026 showing approval between 32% and 39% and disapproval as high as 66% [1][2][3]. This approval level, hovering around 40% in June 2026, is consistent with historically difficult midterm environments for a sitting president's party [4][6][7][8]. Voter sentiment is heavily influenced by dissatisfaction concerning the handling of the war in Iran, stagnating economic conditions, and a perception that the President is not focused on the country's most pressing problems [2][9].
The national political environment favors Democrats in generic congressional polling. In mid-2026, the national political landscape indicates Democrats are leading in generic congressional ballot polling, with lead margins reaching up to 8% in May 2026 [4][5]. This dynamic typically generates electoral headwinds for the incumbent party's gubernatorial candidates in key swing states such as Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania [4][5]. These national headwinds contribute to highly competitive environments for gubernatorial races in these states, where control of state election infrastructure ahead of the 2028 presidential cycle is a primary point of contention [10][11][12][13].
Gubernatorial races show varied competitiveness, with prediction markets signaling uncertainty. Within these key swing states, gubernatorial races exhibit differing levels of competitiveness, with Arizona polls leaning Democratic, Pennsylvania showing a strong lead for the Democratic incumbent, and Wisconsin considered a toss-up [14][15][16][17]. Prediction markets currently signal uncertainty regarding the post-midterm count of Republican governors [18][19][20]. The most probable outcomes for the number of Republican governors are currently signaling ranges of "24–25" and "22–23," which suggests a potential net loss from the current 27 seats [18][19][20]. Furthermore, prediction market data from late July 2026 indicates Democrats are favored in 266 congressional and gubernatorial races, while Republicans are favored in 236, highlighting a competitive environment where neither party holds a guaranteed majority across all races [21][22].
Sources (22)
  1. 1Donald Trump's approval ratingeconomist.com
  2. 2CNN Poll: Americans doubt Trump is paying enough attention to the country’s most important problems | CNN Politicscnn.com
  3. 3CNN Poll Tracking: President Trump's approval ratingscnn.com
  4. 4Decision Desk HQ Releases 2026 Congressional Forecast Model | DDHQdecisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Democrats have the second-highest generic ballot lead in May of any midterm year - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Trump's approval on economy falls in AP-NORC poll, showing new warning signs for president | The Associated Pressap.org
  7. 7Trump ends June with 40% approval rating, same as Biden's at this point in his term - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Trump saw lowest average approval rating of his second term in May - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Analysis: As he wrestles with the monumental and the absurd, Trump forgets what voters want | CNN Politicscnn.com
  10. 10Top 2026 governor races to watch: toss-ups, lean R and lean D now | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  11. 11Six Gubernatorial Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans May Still Come Out Ahead - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
  12. 122026 Governor Races: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania Are the Big Three | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com
  13. 132026 Arizona gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
  14. 14Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  15. 15Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  16. 16Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  17. 17Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  18. 18How Many Republican Governors After the 2026 Midterms?lines.com
  19. 19How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elec... | Polymarketpolymarket.copilot.markets
  20. 20PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
  21. 21Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  22. 22Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

6. Which 10 gubernatorial races are rated as most competitive by Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report for the 2026 cycle?

Total Competitive RacesNine gubernatorial races for 2026 cycle (July 2026) [1]
Cook Political Report Toss-UpsGeorgia (Open), Michigan (Open), New Hampshire (Ayotte), Ohio (Open), Wisconsin (Evers) (July 10, 2026) [1][2]
Sabato's Crystal Ball Toss-UpsGeorgia, Iowa, Ohio (July 23, 2026) [3][4][5]
Nine gubernatorial races are rated highly competitive for the 2026 cycle. As of July 2026, a combined analysis from major forecasters, including Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, indicates nine highly competitive races, with insufficient data to identify a full top ten. The Cook Political Report, in its July 10, 2026 assessment, categorized Georgia (Open), Michigan (Open), New Hampshire (Ayotte), Ohio (Open), and Wisconsin (Evers) as "Toss Up" races [1][2]. Similarly, Sabato's Crystal Ball, in its July 23, 2026 assessment, designated Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio as "Toss-up" races [3][4][5].
Broader analyses expand the list of highly contested gubernatorial races for 2026. Beyond the direct "Toss Up" classifications, other major forecasters consistently identify Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, and Nevada as highly contested battlegrounds [6][7][8]. Furthermore, predictive data and polling aggregates collected in August 2026 highlight significant competitiveness in Ohio, Nevada, Oregon, and Wisconsin [9]. Through consolidation of these various assessments, the nine gubernatorial races identified as most competitive for the 2026 cycle are Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, and Wisconsin.
Sources (9)
  1. 12026 CPR Governor Race ratingscookpolitical.com
  2. 2Five Governors’ Race Ratings Shift, All But One in Democrats’ Direction | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  3. 32026 Governor - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
  4. 4Three Gubernatorial Rating Changes: Michigan to Leans Democratic, New Mexico to Safe Democratic, Florida to Likely Republican - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
  5. 52026 Rating Changes - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
  6. 6A look at gubernatorial battlegrounds in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  7. 7A look at this year's gubernatorial battlegrounds - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Rob Sand (D), Zach Lahn (R), and Nicholas Gluba (L) are running in the general election for governor of Iowa on November 3, 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org

7. How do the fundraising totals and cash-on-hand of the Republican Governors Association (RGA) and the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) compare as of the Q3 2026 filing deadline?

DGA Q1 2026 Contributions$25.7 million (Jan 1 - Mar 31, 2026) [1]
DGA 2025 Total RaisedOver $112 million (2025 calendar year) [2][3]
RGA Q3 2026 DataNot specified in available research [1]
A complete fundraising comparison is challenging due to limited RGA data. A comprehensive assessment of the fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for the Republican Governors Association (RGA) and the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) as of the Q3 2026 filing deadline cannot be fully made given the incomplete information available. The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) reported $25.7 million in contributions for the period spanning January 1 to March 31, 2026 [1]. Additionally, the DGA raised more than $112 million across all its entities during the 2025 calendar year, demonstrating significant momentum leading into the 2026 election cycle [2][3].
The Republican Governors Association's specific figures are unavailable for 2026. The research provided does not include specific fundraising totals or cash-on-hand figures for the RGA for Q3 2026 or any other period within that year. Both the RGA and the DGA operate as 527 political organizations, which primarily report their financial activities to the IRS rather than the Federal Election Commission (FEC) [4][5]. This reporting structure differs from candidate or national party committees and can consequently restrict the availability of direct comparative data from standard public quarterly filings.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Democratic Governors Association — 527 Explorer — ProPublicaprojects.propublica.org
  2. 2Over $112 Million: DGA Announces Record-Shattering 2025 Fundraising - DGAdemocraticgovernors.org
  3. 3The Washington Post: DGA Uses Record Fundraising Haul to Invest in Staff Across the Country, Go on Offense in 2026 - DGAdemocraticgovernors.org
  4. 4Republican Governors Association - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Democratic Governors Associationballotpedia.org

8. Which specific Republican-held and Democrat-held seats face the highest probability of flipping in 2026, according to election model aggregates?

Most Competitive U.S. House Seats IdentifiedAZ-01, AZ-06, CO-08, FL-25, IA-01, MI-07, NY-17, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, TX-34, VA-02, WA-03, WI-03 (as of August 2026) [1][2][3]
Additional Competitive U.S. House RacesFlorida 25, Michigan 10, New York 17, North Carolina 1, Pennsylvania 10, Florida 14, Iowa 3 (Decision Desk HQ, August 2026) [4]
Most Competitive U.S. Senate RacesMaine, Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Iowa (ranked by closeness) [4][5]
Election model aggregates identify numerous competitive U.S. House races for 2026. As of August 2026, several U.S. House seats are categorized as "Toss-up" or "most competitive" by major election models. These include AZ-01, AZ-06, CO-08, FL-25, IA-01, MI-07, NY-17, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, TX-34, VA-02, WA-03, and WI-03 [1][2][3]. Additionally, Decision Desk HQ's forecast for August 2026 also lists Florida 25, Michigan 10, New York 17, North Carolina 1, Pennsylvania 10, Florida 14, and Iowa 3 among the most competitive U.S. House races [4].
Several U.S. Senate races are also designated highly competitive. The most competitive "Toss-Up" races for the U.S. Senate, ranked by closeness, are Maine, Alaska, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa [4][5]. While election models track these House and Senate seats as crucial determinants of overall control, the provided information does not explicitly state the current party affiliation of the incumbents for any of these identified competitive seats [1][2][3][4][5]. Consequently, it is not possible to identify which specific Republican-held or Democrat-held seats have the highest probability of flipping based solely on the available facts.
Sources (5)
  1. 12026 CPR House Race ratingscookpolitical.com
  2. 2House Ratings | Inside Electionsinsideelections.com
  3. 3House Ratings | Inside Electionsinsideelections.com
  4. 42026 Election Forecast - DDHQ Votes - Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 U.S. Senate Forecast | Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

9. What does historical data on midterm gubernatorial seat changes since 2002 predict for the party holding the presidency in the 2026 elections?

Midterms with Presidential party losses16 of 20 since WWII [1][2][3]
Current Gubernatorial Split26 Republicans, 24 Democrats [4][5][6]
Predicted Republican Governors (2026)22-25 (prediction markets) [7][8][9]
Midterm elections often see the president's party lose gubernatorial seats. Historically, the political party holding the presidency frequently experiences losses in gubernatorial seats during midterm elections. This pattern has been observed in 16 out of 20 midterm elections since World War II [1][2][3]. Such trends commonly result in net losses for the president's party, with past instances including a 7-seat loss for Democrats in 2010 and a 7-seat gain for Democrats in 2018 [10][11].
Republicans currently hold more governorships, facing challenges in 2026. Heading into the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans currently hold 26 governorships, while Democrats hold 24 [4][5][6]. A total of 36 gubernatorial seats will be contested in the upcoming elections, with 18 currently held by Republicans and 18 by Democrats [4][5][6]. Prediction markets for the 2026 gubernatorial elections suggest a challenging environment for Republicans, forecasting their most likely outcome to be in the range of 22-25 governorships [7][8][9]. This indicates an expected net loss from a pre-election count of 27 Republican governors, reflecting a higher probability of Democratic gains according to market assessments [7][9][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Forecast Model Suggests Democratic Gains Likely in 2018 Gubernatorial Contests - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
  2. 2Six Gubernatorial Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans May Still Come Out Ahead - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
  3. 3Six Gubernatorial Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans May Still Come Out Ahead - Rasmussen Reports®rasmussenreports.com
  4. 4Gubernatorial elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections are happening in 26 states in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6State executive official elections - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7How Many Republican Governors After the 2026 Midterms?lines.com
  8. 8How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elec... | Polymarketpolymarket.copilot.markets
  9. 9PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
  10. 10Wave elections (1918-2016)/Full reportballotpedia.org
  11. 11An early look at gubernatorial elections in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  12. 12How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections? — Odds & Charts | Prescientprescient.markets

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 United States midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5], include gubernatorial races [1]. These midterm elections loom as a key event [6].
Gubernatorial elections are a specific focus. As of August 6, 2026, there are 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors in the United States [7][8]. A total of 36 gubernatorial seats (18 Republican-held and 18 Democratic-held) are up for election on November 3, 2026 [9][10][11]. Separately, 39 gubernatorial elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, involving 36 states and three territories [1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (11)
  1. 12026 United States gubernatorial electionsen.wikipedia.org
  2. 22026 Midterm Elections | Key Races, Historic Precedents, States to Watch, Gerrymandering, & Integrity | Britannicabritannica.com
  3. 3FEC | Election and voting informationfec.gov
  4. 42026 election and voting datesballotpedia.org
  5. 5United States Congress elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  6. 6How Earnings, Volatility, and AI Capex Are Affecting US Marketsyoutube.com
  7. 7State executive officials - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 8A look at this year's gubernatorial battlegrounds - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Both gubernatorial and U.S.Senate elections are happening in 26 states in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  10. 10A look at gubernatorial elections in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  11. 11Both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections are happening in 26 states in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org