Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the 2026 Midterm Elections will happen as scheduled, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has consistently priced a high probability that the 2026 midterm elections will occur as scheduled, with the price holding steady at 96.2%. The overall trend is flat, trading within an exceptionally narrow 140-basis-point range between 95.0% and 96.4%. This tight channel suggests well-defined support at 95.0% and resistance at 96.4%, though these levels are untested by any meaningful activity. There have been no significant price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze, as the price has remained stable since the market's inception.
The defining characteristic of this market is the complete absence of trading activity. Total volume stands at zero contracts. This indicates that the price chart reflects offered bids and asks rather than executed transactions based on new information or changing sentiment. The minor fluctuations observed are not material price discovery. The lack of volume signals a market with no conviction on either side of the baseline assumption.
The combination of a high, stable price and zero volume points to a strong and unchallenged consensus. The market reflects a default assumption that the elections will proceed normally, an outcome seen as too certain to attract speculative interest. There are currently no participants willing to bet against this high-probability event or to tie up capital on the long side for a marginal return.
  • Yes: Elections are statutorily set for November 3, 2026 by Congress.
  • Yes: FEC confirms extensive preparations, consistent with historical precedent.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Yes 96.2% 96.2% US midterm elections historically proceed as scheduled due to established legal frameworks and democratic processes.

Current Context

The 2026 Midterm Elections are set for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. These elections will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress, contesting all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats, and 39 gubernatorial seats [3][4][5]. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) maintains active records and reporting schedules for the 2026 cycle. Adjustments to primary dates in specific states, such as Alabama and Louisiana, are managed through standard administrative processes [6][7].
Political volatility and low approval shape the midterm outlook. These elections serve as a midpoint referendum on President Donald Trump's administration and policies [3][4]. President Trump's approval rating reached a historic low of 33% as of mid-August 2026 [8]. Significant voter concerns persist regarding the ongoing conflict with Iran, its impact on the economy, and gas prices [8]. This geopolitical tension, coupled with economic pressures and controversial executive actions regarding vaccines, contributes to high political volatility [3][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Some Republican lawmakers are distancing themselves from the administration to protect their electoral prospects [3]. Prediction markets indicate divided expectations, with current odds reflecting potential for split party control in the House and Senate [3]. As of August 18, 2026, Decision Desk HQ's predictive models forecast the U.S. House leaning Democratic and the Senate narrowly favoring Republicans [14][15][16].
Sources (16)
  1. 12026 United States electionsen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2United States Congress elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  3. 3When are the midterm elections 2026? Who is leading in midterms, pollsusatoday.com
  4. 4The 2026 Midterms: Key Dates and Eventsbipartisanpolicy.org
  5. 5United States House of Representatives elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing Deadlines for Ballot Accessfec.gov
  7. 7Congressional pre-election reporting dates (2026)fec.gov
  8. 8Donald Trump approval hits new low amid fears of prolonged Iran war | The Jerusalem Postjpost.com
  9. 9RFK Jr.'s quiet hunt for autism culprits stalls as Trump orders baseless changes to childhood shots - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  10. 10Marjorie Taylor Greene claims Trump considering using nukes in Iranusatoday.com
  11. 11US-Iran Strikes Extend to 10th Day; Trump Vows 50% Tariff on Canadian Goods | Bloomberg...youtube.com
  12. 12US Readies Isolation Plan for Iran; Trump Tariffs on Drones | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  13. 13Trump Reverts to Economic Squeeze of Iran; Colombia Quake Toll Tops 260 | Bloomberg Daybreak: US...youtube.com
  14. 142026 Election Forecast | Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  15. 152026 U.S. House Forecast | Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  16. 162026 U.S. Senate Forecast | Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections occur on November 3, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market's resolution will occur by December 31, 2026, relying primarily on official US government information and a consensus of credible reporting.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Yes $0.96 $0.04 96%

Market Discussion

The market shows a strong consensus (96% probability) that the 2026 Midterm Elections will happen as scheduled, largely due to constitutional requirements and historical precedent. Arguments for a "No" outcome primarily involve extreme scenarios such as potential interference by Donald Trump to postpone or nationalize voting, false flag events leading to martial law, or elections being rendered ineffective by a purposeful government shutdown. While some traders highlight voter suppression as a potential factor, the prevailing view suggests that such issues would not prevent the elections from procedurally occurring on the scheduled date.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 80 Good

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Integrity risk· Outcome control

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good

Resolution quality is low (60), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score85Strong

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses under 1% of the price to slippage.

Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 4 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Screened clean
Participant influenceNo conflicted participant detected. Clear
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
88Deep

Size fills near the screen price

1 contract

Yes88
Deep · medium confidence

Typical bar range 0.1% of price over 3 traded bars

24h traded notional $7,975 · 24h
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Yes—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Yes100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
85Strong

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 88 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.0c slippage (<1% of a 98c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.0c slippage (<1% of a 98c contract)

$10,000 order: 0.0c slippage (<1% of a 98c contract)

Yes88Market scoreLiquidity88Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 88
Liquidity
88 · Deep · medium confidence

Typical bar range 0.1% of price over 3 traded bars

24h traded notional $7,975 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 2, 2026

5. What is the timeline of key administrative and statutory deadlines leading up to November 2026 that would signal a potential postponement if missed?

2026 Midterm Election DateTuesday, November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Authority to Postpone Federal ElectionsOnly Congress has the authority [5][6][7][8]
Historical Precedent for PostponementNone for US federal general election [9][10][11]
The 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections are firmly set for November 3. These elections are statutorily scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Although various state-specific deadlines for candidate filing, primary elections, and reporting activities are scheduled to occur throughout the year, the provided research does not detail specific administrative or statutory deadlines whose omission would indicate a potential postponement of the federal general election itself [12][13][14].
Only Congress can modify the date of federal elections. There is no constitutional or federal statutory authority granting the U.S. President the power to unilaterally postpone, reschedule, or cancel federal elections [5][6][7][8]. Instead, Congress possesses the sole constitutional authority to modify the date of federal elections through legislative action [5][6][7][8]. Furthermore, there is no historical precedent for postponing a U.S. federal general election [9][10][11]. While states hold primary authority over election administration and may, under state law, reschedule local or state-level elections in extreme circumstances, this authority does not extend to changing the date of the federal election itself [5][15].
Sources (15)
  1. 1Election Day: Frequently Asked Questions | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  2. 2United States Congress elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  3. 3When are the midterm elections 2026? Who is leading in midterms, pollsusatoday.com
  4. 42 USC 7: Time of electionuscode.house.gov
  5. 5Postponement and Rescheduling of Elections to Federal Officesgp.fas.org
  6. 6PolitiFact | U.S. presidents can’t cancel or postpone federal electionspolitifact.com
  7. 7Does the Constitution allow for a delayed presidential...constitutioncenter.org
  8. 8The U.S. has never delayed a presidential election. Here's why it's so tricky. | National Geographicnationalgeographic.com
  9. 9STATE LAWS & PRACTICES FOR THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OF ELECTIONSnass.org
  10. 10State Laws & Practices for the Emergency Management of Electionsnass.org
  11. 11State Laws & Practices for the Emergency Management of Electionsnass.org
  12. 122026 Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing...fec.gov
  13. 13Congressional pre-election reporting dates (2026)fec.gov
  14. 14Federal Election Activity dates for 2026 electionsfec.gov
  15. 15Postponement and Rescheduling of Elections to Federal...everycrsreport.com

6. What official preparations by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and state election authorities confirm the 2026 midterms are proceeding as scheduled?

2026 Midterm Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1][2]
Federal PreparationsFEC published detailed 2026 reporting dates and schedules [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
State and Local PreparationsEngaged in ballot construction, cybersecurity hardening, and staffing [10][11][12][13]
The Federal Election Commission confirms extensive preparations for 2026 midterms. The FEC has confirmed administrative and regulatory preparations for the 2026 midterm elections, publishing detailed reporting dates, filing schedules, federal election activity timelines, and congressional primary dates [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. These official actions confirm the midterm elections are scheduled to occur on November 3, 2026, as federally mandated [1][2].
State and local authorities are actively ensuring secure, accurate 2026 elections. Election officials across the U.S. are actively administering elections and report high confidence in their ability to conduct secure and accurate elections on November 3, 2026 [1][2][14][15][13]. Local authorities are engaged in standard operational preparations, including ballot construction, cybersecurity hardening, and staffing, to ensure the elections occur as scheduled [10][11][12][13]. Additionally, the National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS) actively manages election preparations through initiatives like #TrustedInfo2026 and intergovernmental communication efforts [16][17][18][19]. Legal experts and administrators agree the President lacks constitutional or statutory authority to cancel or postpone the midterm elections [1][2].
Sources (19)
  1. 1Why Trump can’t cancel the 2026 midterm elections - Votebeatvotebeat.org
  2. 22026 midterm election FAQsprotectdemocracy.org
  3. 3Dates and deadlinesfec.gov
  4. 4FEC | 2026 Congressional pre-election reporting datesfec.gov
  5. 5FEC | Dates and deadlines | 2026 Quarterly filersfec.gov
  6. 6FEC | Dates and Deadlines | 2026 Congressional Pre- and Post- General Election Reportsfec.gov
  7. 7Federal Election Activity dates for 2026 electionsfec.gov
  8. 82026 Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing...fec.gov
  9. 9Election Datesfec.gov
  10. 10Election Preparation Report - 2026 | Citrus County Elections, FLvotecitrus.gov
  11. 11Georgia passed on election upgrades. A Princeton researcher exploited weaknesses in system.ajc.com
  12. 12Georgia election officials strengthen cybersecurity ahead of November midterms | Blade Intelbladeintel.com
  13. 13Michigan’s local election officials are confident in voting integrity ahead of November’s midterm election | Billings News | kulr8.comkulr8.com
  14. 142026 United States electionsen.wikipedia.org
  15. 15No more 'hypothetical situations': States move to fortify elections against Trump • Statelinestateline.org
  16. 16Ahead of 2026 Midterms, NASS Relaunches #TrustedInfo...nass.org
  17. 17March 11, 2026nass.org
  18. 18STATE LAWS & PRACTICES FOR THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OF ELECTIONSnass.org
  19. 193. Modernize the voting process as necessary, including voting technologies and systems and implement well defined, consistent standards for what counts as a vote throughout the election process to ensure accurate vote counts and minimal voter error.nass.org

7. How does the legal authority to postpone federal elections compare between the U.S. Congress and the Executive Branch under President Trump?

Congress's authority to change federal election timingYes [1][2][3]
President's authority to postpone federal electionsNo express authority [4][1][3][5]
Probability 2026 midterms proceed as scheduledApproximately 96% [6][7][8][9]
Congress holds express constitutional authority to alter federal election timing. The U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to legislate changes to the schedule of federal elections through the normal legislative process [1][2][3]. In stark contrast, the Constitution does not provide any explicit authority for the President or the Executive Branch to postpone, cancel, or reschedule federal elections, meaning there is no comparable executive power for the President to independently undertake such actions [1][3][4][5][10][11][12].
Congress can legislate emergency rescheduling, but elections are state-administered. While Congress possesses the authority to enact federal laws establishing the times, places, and manner of federal elections, including provisions for rescheduling in emergency circumstances, the administration of these elections falls to individual states and is governed by a blend of federal and state laws [10][11][12]. Historically, no general election for federal office in U.S. history has ever been postponed or delayed due to catastrophic events [10][11][12][13][14]. Looking ahead, the 2026 midterm elections are officially slated for November 3, 2026, and prediction markets indicate a very high implied probability, approximately 96%, that these elections will proceed as scheduled on that date [13][14][15][6][7][8][9].
Sources (15)
  1. 1Postponement and Rescheduling of Elections to Federal...everycrsreport.com
  2. 2https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20040714_RL32471_d8fe3184ddced0b75e48d3cdc6a466f3ee5a3448.htmleverycrsreport.com
  3. 3PolitiFact | U.S. presidents can’t cancel or postpone federal electionspolitifact.com
  4. 4Postponement and Rescheduling of Elections to Federal Officesgp.fas.org
  5. 5Does the Constitution allow for a delayed presidential election? | Constitution Centerconstitutioncenter.org
  6. 6https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduledpolymarket.com
  7. 7Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Paritypredictparity.com
  8. 8Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?tomorrowodds.com
  9. 9Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? — 94% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me
  10. 10STATE LAWS & PRACTICES FOR THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OF ELECTIONSnass.org
  11. 11State Laws & Practices for the Emergency Management of Electionsnass.org
  12. 12State Laws & Practices for the Emergency Management of Electionsnass.org
  13. 13FEC | Election and voting informationfec.gov
  14. 14United States Congress elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  15. 152026 Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing...fec.gov

8. What historical precedents exist for U.S. federal elections proceeding on schedule during major conflicts or crises, such as the Civil War or World War II?

Federal Election Postponement HistoryNo historical precedent for delay (Civil War, WWII, 1918 pandemic included) [1][2][3][4][5]
Presidential Authority to PostponeNone for federal elections; authority rests with Congress [6][7][8]
2026 Midterm Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [9][10][11][12]
U.S. federal elections have consistently proceeded on schedule, even during major national crises. The United States maintains a consistent history of holding federal elections as planned, a practice that continued through significant national conflicts such as the Civil War and World War II [1][2][3][4][5]. There is no historical precedent for the postponement or delay of a U.S. general election for federal office [1][2][3][4][5]. While primary or local elections have occasionally been postponed under exigent circumstances, general elections for federal offices have invariably proceeded on their established dates [4][5].
No U.S. president possesses unilateral authority to postpone or cancel a federal election. There is no constitutional or statutory mechanism granting a U.S. president the power to unilaterally delay or cancel a federal election [6][7][8]. This authority resides exclusively with Congress, while individual states are responsible for the administration of elections [6][7][8]. Although federal law generally mandates a uniform election day, state election laws may allow for localized rescheduling or extensions in extreme, exigent circumstances, typically through state authority or court orders [8][13].
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. These elections are proceeding as scheduled, consistent with federal law and established democratic practices [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. State primary schedules, which are managed by individual states, are also subject to potential adjustments for local exigent circumstances [9][10][11][12].
Sources (13)
  1. 11864 United States presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Election of 1864 - Presidential Inauguration (U.S. National Park Service)nps.gov
  3. 3How the Union Pulled Off a Presidential Election During...history.com
  4. 4STATE LAWS & PRACTICES FOR THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OF ELECTIONSnass.org
  5. 5State Laws & Practices for the Emergency Management of Electionsnass.org
  6. 6PolitiFact | U.S. presidents can’t cancel or postpone federal electionspolitifact.com
  7. 7Does the Constitution allow for a delayed presidential election? | Constitution Centerconstitutioncenter.org
  8. 8Postponement and Rescheduling of Elections to Federal Officesgp.fas.org
  9. 92026 election and voting datesballotpedia.org
  10. 102026 Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing...fec.gov
  11. 11Congressional elections calendarballotpedia.org
  12. 12FEC | 2026 Congressional pre-election reporting datesfec.gov
  13. 13"Postponing Elections" by Michael T. Morleyscholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu

9. What specific national security events or constitutional crises could realistically trigger a delay of the November 2026 midterm elections?

Presidential AuthorityNo unilateral power to postpone federal elections [1][2][3][4][5]
Congressional AuthorityRequires an act of Congress to change national election date [2][4][6]
Historical PrecedentNever postponed or canceled a national election in U.S. history [5][7]
Delaying federal elections requires an act of Congress, not presidential decree. The U.S. Constitution and federal law do not authorize the President to unilaterally postpone, cancel, or reschedule federal midterm elections [1][2][3][4][5]. While states primarily administer federal elections, Congress holds the ultimate, superseding power to regulate the times, places, and manner of these elections, meaning any alteration to the national election date would necessitate specific legislation [2][4][6]. Congressional Research Service reports indicate that Congress likely possesses the authority to enact federal legislation for rescheduling elections during emergencies, provided such laws include clear standards and guidelines [8].
Despite crises, the U.S. has no history of postponing national elections. The United States has never delayed or canceled a national election, with federal elections proceeding as scheduled through significant historical crises, including the Civil War, both World Wars, and the 1918 influenza pandemic, establishing no precedent for such an action [5][7]. The research does not identify any specific national security events or constitutional crises that could realistically prompt Congress to delay the November 2026 midterm elections. While various state-level laws exist that allow state officials to suspend, delay, or postpone elections in emergency situations, these mechanisms are limited to state-level contests and do not authorize a federal-level cancellation of midterm elections [2][3][9][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Why Trump can't cancel the 2026 midterm electionsvotebeat.org
  2. 2Postponement and Rescheduling of Elections to Federal Officesgp.fas.org
  3. 3Postponement and Rescheduling of Elections to Federal...everycrsreport.com
  4. 42026 midterm election FAQsprotectdemocracy.org
  5. 5Have US midterm elections ever been postponed or cance...factually.co
  6. 6Postponement and Rescheduling of Elections to Federal Officecongressionalresearch.com
  7. 7Fearing midterm loss, Trump repeats call for canceling elections - Asia Timesasiatimes.com
  8. 8State Laws & Practices for the Emergency Management of Electionsnass.org
  9. 9Postponement and Rescheduling of Elections to Federal Officesgp.fas.org
  10. 10State Election Laws: Overview of Statutes Regarding Emergency Election Postponement Within the Statecongressionalresearch.com
  11. 11STATE LAWS & PRACTICES FOR THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OF ELECTIONSnass.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. This election cycle is currently in its final phase, with primary elections concluding in September 2026, leading up to the general election on November 3, 2026 [1][3]. The 120th Congress is scheduled to convene on January 3, 2027 [1][3]. Multiple states have conducted or scheduled primary elections and candidate filing deadlines throughout the spring and summer of 2026 [2][10]. Ongoing litigation regarding congressional redistricting in several states and legal challenges concerning Federal Election Commission authority have not suspended the scheduled federal elections [11][12].
Active prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, are offering real-money contracts on the outcomes of the 2026 midterm elections [13][14][15][16][17]. These contracts include predictions for control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives [13][14][15][16][17].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (17)
  1. 12026 Election Calendar: Primary and General Election Dates | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing Deadlines for Ballot Accessfec.gov
  3. 3The 2026 Midterms: Key Dates and Eventsbipartisanpolicy.org
  4. 4United States Congress elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Election Day: Frequently Asked Questions | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  6. 6When are the midterm elections 2026? Who is leading in midterms, pollsusatoday.com
  7. 72026 election and voting datesballotpedia.org
  8. 8Congressional elections calendarballotpedia.org
  9. 9Election Datesfec.gov
  10. 10Daily Brew: February 27, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Thirteen states could consider redrawing congressional boundaries before the 2026 midterms - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  12. 12Case 1:25-cv-00587-AHA Document 12-1 Filed 03/11/...fec.gov
  13. 132026 Midterm Elections predictions & odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  14. 14Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Predictions & Oddspolymarket.com
  15. 15Which party will win the U.S. House?kalshi.com
  16. 162026 Midterms Odds — Live Senate, House & Control Tracker | PredictionMarketsPickspredictionmarketspicks.com
  17. 172026 Midterms Prediction Markets — Senate, House & Balance of Power | PredictionMarketsPickspredictionmarketspicks.com