Short Answer

The US government is expected to rescind the Anthropic ban before January 1, 2027. This follows Anthropic's CEO signing the White House Accord and a court reportedly blocking the administration’s broader government-wide designation, strongly indicating White House action to permit federal government use; the market prices this outcome at 98.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market probability of the US government rescinding its Anthropic ban jumped 71 percentage points to 98.0% on September 29, 2026. This repricing followed the news that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei signed President Trump's voluntary White House Accord on Super Intelligence. The market interpreted this act as a political thaw that makes a policy reversal highly probable.
The initial ban was ordered by President Trump on February 27, 2026, after the Pentagon classified Anthropic as a supply-chain risk. The market's sharp move indicates that the perceived political reconciliation from the White House accord now outweighs the original national security rationale for the ban.
  • US government appears likely to permit Anthropic federal use before January 1, 2027.
  • Broad rescission before June 2, 2026 appears unlikely due to the D.C. Circuit ruling.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Jan 1, 2027 98.0% 97.7% Anthropic's CEO signed the White House Accord, and a court reportedly blocked broader government designation.

Current Context

The US government initially banned Anthropic technology over military use disputes. On February 27, 2026, President Trump directed federal agencies to cease using Anthropic technology after the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply-chain risk [1][2][3]. The Pentagon allowed a six-month phase-out for existing Defense Department use [1]. This dispute arose from Anthropic's refusal of unrestricted military applications, specifically mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons [2]. By April 29, 2026, the White House considered guidance to soften or work around the supply-chain-risk designation and OMB restrictions, though resolution of the Pentagon dispute remained uncertain [4]. Former Pentagon deputy assistant secretary Michael Horowitz characterized the dispute as unnecessary and driven by theoretical use cases, noting agreement on currently realistic applications [2]. Court filings described the government's rationale as a slim four-page memorandum, and the government retreated from concerns about alleged Anthropic backdoor access, adding pressure against a permanent ban [5].
The ban saw a partial reversal through June 2026 Commerce Department actions. The Commerce Department first allowed Mythos 5 access for selected trusted U.S. organizations on June 26 [6]. It then lifted export controls on both Mythos 5 and Fable 5 on June 30, 2026, with Anthropic restoring access beginning July 1 [7][8]. Prediction markets reflected these developments; Polymarket's Fable 5 foreigner-ban market and related Mythos/Fable access markets resolved Yes after the June 30 Commerce decision [9][10][11]. The Fable market recorded approximately $257,000 in volume [9]. While the rescission factually occurred on June 30, it happened after any "before June 2" forecast cutoff [12][6][7][8]. Kalshi's broader Anthropic market, which required official action permitting federal government or Defense Department use, held a 49% probability of rescission before January 1, 2027, as of September 8, 2026 [13]. This series of actions pointed towards a softening of the broader government ban, though permanent unrestricted Pentagon access remained unsettled [12].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Trump directs US agencies to toss Anthropic's AI as Pentagon calls startup a supply risk | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Trump Moves to Ban Anthropic From the US Government | WIREDwired.com
  3. 3Trump orders all US agencies to stop using Anthropic's AI | AP Newsapnews.com
  4. 4Scoop: White House workshops plan to bring back Anthropicaxios.com
  5. 5ORDER ON CROSS MOTIONS FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT; GRANTING MOTION TO SUPPLEMENT THE ADMINISTRATIVE RECORD Re: Dkt. Nos. 166, 169, 215storage.courtlistener.com
  6. 6US allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to 'trusted' US organizations | Reutersreuters.com
  7. 7White House lifts export control on Anthropic that froze its most advanced models | CNN Businesscnn.com
  8. 8The Trump Administration Is Lifting Its Export Controls on Anthropic’s Mythos and Fable AI Models | WIREDwired.com
  9. 9Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30 Final Result & Prediction Market | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
  10. 10Claude Mythos 5 Access Restored: June 30 Outcome Wins | Lines.comlines.com
  11. 11Claude Fable 5 Ban Rescinded: US Lifts Export Controls by June 30lines.com
  12. 12US removes curbs on Anthropic's latest Fable and Mythos AI models | Reutersreuters.com
  13. 13Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 September 29, 2026: 71.0pp spike

Price increased from 27.0% to 98.0%

Outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027

What happened: The primary driver for the 71.0 percentage point spike on September 29, 2026, was likely the traditional news that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei signed Trump's voluntary White House Accord on Super Intelligence on September 29-30 [1][2][3][4]. This event signaled a political thawing and renewed direct engagement between Trump and Anthropic, appearing to coincide with the market price movement [1]. Despite the accord being nonbinding and not lifting the Pentagon designation, and a recent D.C. Circuit ruling upholding the ban, the market likely interpreted this engagement as increasing the probability of a future rescission or accommodation [5][6][7][1]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, with the available information pointing to traditional news and political engagement.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Trump says top tech firms have signed accord to 'self-police' AI: NPRnpr.org
  2. 2After Trump meeting with tech leaders, AI safety in more chaotic statecnbc.com
  3. 3Top AI and tech firms sign 'morally binding' accord to 'self-police' development after meeting at White House | Euronewseuronews.com
  4. 4Unlike the EU, Trump's new AI pact lets tech companies police themselves | Euronewseuronews.com
  5. 526-1049media.cadc.uscourts.gov
  6. 6D.C. Circuit Upholds Exclusion of Anthropic from DOW Supply Chain Under FASCSA | Insights | Holland & Knighthklaw.com
  7. 7DC Circuit Upholds Pentagon’s Anthropic Supply Chain Risk Designation – MeriTalkmeritalk.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the US government rescinds the Anthropic ban before January 1, 2027. If the ban is not rescinded by December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO. The maximum payout date for this market is December 31, 2026.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 $0.97 $0.87 98%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets, as of September 12, 2026, priced the rescission of the Anthropic ban at 47%-49% before January 1, 2027, reflecting a near coin flip despite a D.C. Circuit ruling on September 25, 2026, that upheld the Pentagon's ability to blacklist Anthropic for refusing to enable certain features [1][2][3][4][5][6]. While this decision strengthens the current institutional momentum favoring continuation of the ban, Anthropic may still pursue further appeals, or a negotiated settlement or executive policy reversal could provide a path to rescission, maintaining significant political optionality [7][6][8][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 1Live odds: Will the US government rescind th… | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  2. 2Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3U.S. appeals court upholds Pentagon designation of...cnbc.com
  4. 4Court rules Trump can blacklist Anthropic for refusing to enable Claude features - Ars Technicaarstechnica.com
  5. 5DC Circuit Upholds Pentagon’s Anthropic Supply Chain Risk Designation – MeriTalkmeritalk.com
  6. 6D.C. Circuit Upholds the Anthropic Ban: What It Means for Federal Contractors - Government Contracts Navigatorgovernmentcontractsnavigator.com
  7. 7D.C. Circuit Upholds Exclusion of Anthropic from DOW Supply Chain Under FASCSA | Insights | Holland & Knighthklaw.com
  8. 8DC CIrcuit Upholds DOW Exclusion of Anthropic's AI From Supply Chnatlawreview.com
  9. 9Will Pentagon reverse course on Anthropic before September 2, 2026 deadline? | Manifoldmanifold.markets

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 76 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score42High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score76Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
53Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Jan 1, 202753
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
71Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

1 contract · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Jan 1, 202771
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Jan 1, 2027100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
42High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 53 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 42.8c slippage (~78% of a 55c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Jan 1, 2027Primary53Market scoreLiquidity53Move quality71Rule clarity100
Why 53
Liquidity
53 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
71 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 30, 2026

6. How could potential litigation from Anthropic influence the Trump administration's timeline for rescinding the federal agency ban?

Market price for rescission before July 127–28 cents [1][2]
Market price for rescission before August 166–69 cents [1][2]
Market price for rescission before January 1, 202783–85 cents [1][2]
Potential litigation from Anthropic could influence the federal agency ban's rescission timeline. Such legal action might prompt an earlier, legally defensible resolution from the Trump administration to mitigate potential legal risks, or it could delay action if officials decide to defend the existing designation [3][1]. However, the market's resolution standard for this specific context requires an official Department of Defense or White House action, meaning litigation alone would not satisfy this standard [3][1].
Official action, not litigation, determines contract resolution before June 2, 2026. For a contract resolving by this specific deadline, the primary analytical question is whether an official rescission or a qualifying modification occurred by that date, rather than whether Anthropic initiated a lawsuit or gained leverage [3][1][2]. Current evidence does not confirm that such an action took place by that specific date, making a definitive Yes/No resolution based solely on litigation risk impossible to infer [3][1][2].
Market contracts on June 1–2, 2026, reflected significant near-term uncertainty regarding rescission. Prices indicated substantial near-term uncertainty, with contract prices at approximately 27–28 cents for rescission before July 1, 66–69 cents before August 1, and about 83–85 cents for the broader outcome before January 1, 2027 [1][2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1New Kalshi Markets: Earthquake Prediction, Trump Kennedy Center, GOP Convention — Past 24 Hours (as of 6:30:14 PM ET, Jun 01)predictionnewsnetwork.com
  2. 2New Kalshi Markets: Drake Billboard, SpaceX Launch, Charli XCX Features — Past 24 Hours (as of 8:30:47 AM ET, Jun 02)predictionnewsnetwork.com
  3. 3Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

7. To what extent does the Trump administration's action against Anthropic align with its broader policy statements on AI regulation and Big Tech?

Anthropic Action DateFebruary 2026 [1][2][3][4]
AI Action Plan DateJuly 2025 [3][5][4]
Executive Order DateJune 2, 2026 [3][5][4]
The Trump administration's February 2026 action against Anthropic, ordering federal agencies to cease using its technology, strongly aligns with national security and procurement priorities [1][2][3][4]. This directive followed a dispute regarding military use demands for Anthropic's technology [1][2]. While the action aligns with these specific objectives, it only partially aligns with the administration's broader deregulatory and innovation-first AI policy, as it constitutes a targeted executive procurement sanction rather than a general AI licensing regime [1][2][3][4].
Administration AI policy emphasizes deregulation alongside selective government intervention. The administration's stated AI policy, articulated in the July 2025 AI Action Plan and the June 2, 2026 executive order, is broadly deregulatory, stressing the removal of burdensome regulations and explicitly rejecting mandatory federal licensing for frontier models [3][5][4]. Nevertheless, the administration supports targeted government intervention, particularly to address ideological bias in federally procured AI, to limit conflicting state AI rules, and to frame AI policy around national security, infrastructure protection, U.S. technological leadership, and competition with China [5][6]. The action against Anthropic, stemming from the company's resistance to military-use demands, directly aligns with these overarching national-security and procurement priorities [1][2][3][4].
The action signals executive willingness to use purchasing power against firms. This incident highlights an internal tension within the administration's broader approach to Big Tech: while deregulation and preferential government adoption can bolster large incumbent AI firms, the selective exclusion of a major provider demonstrates the administration's readiness to leverage state purchasing power and national-security authority to discipline companies whose policies conflict with executive priorities [7]. A plausible path to rescinding the action could involve policy accommodation, such as Anthropic accepting sufficiently broad lawful-use assurances. Alternatively, the action could be reversed if operational needs outweigh the dispute, especially as the administration’s June directives favor willing private-sector partnerships and reliable systems for warfighters [3][4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Trump Orders Government to Stop Using Anthropic After...nytimes.com
  2. 2Anthropic and the Pentagon are reportedly arguing over...techcrunch.com
  3. 3Promoting Advanced Artificial Intelligence Innovation and...whitehouse.gov
  4. 4President Donald J. Trump Signs Historic Directive on AI in...whitehouse.gov
  5. 5Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Promotes...whitehouse.gov
  6. 6Trump AI plan and orders aim to deregulate, police bias...fedscoop.com
  7. 7What to make of the Trump administration's AI Action Planbrookings.edu

8. How does the US government's handling of the Anthropic ban compare to its actions against Huawei regarding resolution timelines and stated national security claims?

Anthropic designation dateMarch 4, 2026 (Department of War) [1][2]
Anthropic prediction market deadlineJune 2, 2026 (for official government action) [1][3][4][5]
Huawei restrictions startMay 15, 2019 (Trump's national-security order) [6][7][8]
The US government handled Anthropic and Huawei distinctly regarding resolution and security claims. The approach to Anthropic involved a swift, contract-focused conflict with a firm prediction-market deadline, contrasting sharply with Huawei's restrictions, which formed a more extended campaign allowing for political adaptability [6][1]. These differences were particularly evident in the resolution timelines and the nature of the national security justifications provided.
Anthropic faced a rapid, contract-focused dispute with a tight deadline. Its conflict escalated quickly, culminating in the Department of War designating it a national-security supply-chain risk on March 4, 2026 [1][2]. This action followed an impasse in negotiations regarding safeguards against mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons [1][2]. Anthropic described the designation as legally narrow, primarily impacting its Claude AI on Department of War contracts [1][3][4][5]. This situation unfolded against a prediction market that required official government action before June 2, 2026 [1][3][4][5]. The government's national security rationale was internally contradictory, simultaneously demanding access for all lawful uses while threatening supply-chain-risk designation and Defense Production Act action [9][1]. The central issue in this case was controlling permissible AI applications [6][1].
Huawei's restrictions involved a prolonged geopolitical campaign without a fixed deadline. Huawei was treated as a foreign telecom and geopolitical threat, with restrictions initiated by a May 15, 2019 national-security order and subsequent measures [6][7][8]. Unlike Anthropic, Huawei's situation lacked a fixed near-term resolution deadline; then-President Trump even suggested in May 2019 that Huawei could be part of a US-China trade deal [6]. National security claims against Huawei alleged links to the Chinese government, potentially enabling espionage, backdoors, or critical network disruption [6][7][8]. This reflected a prolonged foreign-adversary campaign, justified by espionage and critical infrastructure concerns related to presumed Chinese state leverage over communications equipment, yet retaining political flexibility [6][1].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Where things stand with the Department of War \ Anthropicanthropic.com
  2. 2Statement on the comments from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth \ Anthropicanthropic.com
  3. 3Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4New Kalshi Markets: Drake Billboard, SpaceX Launch, Charli XCX Features — Past 24 Hours (as of 8:30:47 AM ET, Jun 02)predictionnewsnetwork.com
  5. 5New Kalshi Markets: Earthquake Prediction, Trump Kennedy Center, GOP Convention — Past 24 Hours (as of 6:30:14 PM ET, Jun 01)predictionnewsnetwork.com
  6. 6Dispute over 'dangerous' Huawei could be resolved in trade dealiol.co.za
  7. 7The political economy of the 5G-Huawei bans in the United...journals.sagepub.com
  8. 8Protecting Against National Security Threats to the...federalregister.gov
  9. 9Statement from Dario Amodei on our discussions with the Department of War \ Anthropicanthropic.com

9. What specific actions from the Pentagon or Commerce Department could signal a reversal of the Anthropic ban before June 2, 2026?

Pentagon primary signalFormal withdrawal of Anthropic’s supply-chain-risk designation by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or the Defense Department [1][2]
Commerce primary signalFormal decision to remove Anthropic from restrictions and explicitly permit federal or defense-related use [3][1][2]
Reversal timeframeBefore June 2, 2026 [1][2]
Pentagon actions could signal an Anthropic ban reversal by June 2, 2026. The clearest indication would involve Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or the Defense Department formally withdrawing Anthropic’s supply-chain-risk designation [1][2]. Such a move would materially modify Anthropic’s supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive [4][1][2], thereby making federal or Defense Department use permissible [4][1][2].
Both departments could signal reversal through other specific actions. From the Pentagon, strong signals would include an order stopping or extending the 180-day removal, authorizing Anthropic’s continued use in specified defense systems, reopening procurement or contract negotiations, or rescinding the directive requiring replacement of Claude [1][2][5]. The Commerce Department would signal a reversal through a formal decision to remove Anthropic from any applicable export, supply-chain, procurement, or national-security restriction [3][1][2], and by explicitly permitting federal or defense-related use [3][1][2]. However, ordinary Commerce statements or licensing activity alone would likely not qualify as a reversal signal [3][1][2].
Sources (5)
  1. 1OpenAI announces Pentagon deal after Trump bans...npr.org
  2. 2Trump orders all federal agencies to cease using Anthropicpolitico.com
  3. 3Deadline looms as Anthropic rejects Pentagon demands it...wrkf.org
  4. 4Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Internal Pentagon memo orders military commanders to...cbsnews.com

10. What evidence underpins the Pentagon's 'supply-chain risk' designation for Anthropic issued in February 2026?

Designation DateFebruary 2026 [1][2][3]
Authority Invoked10 U.S.C. §3252 [4]
Judicial Finding DateAugust 27, 2026 [5]
The Pentagon designated Anthropic as a 'supply-chain risk' in February 2026, publicly citing the company's refusal to remove product safeguards that prohibit mass domestic surveillance of Americans and fully autonomous weapons [1][2][3]. Anthropic indicated that negotiations reached an impasse when the Pentagon demanded "any lawful use" of its products, subsequently threatening the designation [1][2][3]. The Pentagon invoked 10 U.S.C. §3252, a rarely used authority intended to address risks of an adversary sabotaging or subverting a military information system [4].
Anthropic disputed the designation, which courts later undermined. The company argued that the designation did not reflect an evidence-based cybersecurity finding and that the statute was narrow, historically reserved for U.S. adversaries, and unprecedented for an American company [1][3]. Subsequent judicial findings, reported on August 27, 2026, significantly undercut the Pentagon’s stated security rationale [5]. Judge Rita Lin held the action unlawful retaliation for Anthropic’s AI-safety positions, finding no articulable basis to believe Anthropic would sabotage its model [5].
Evidence points to a policy dispute, lacking technical security basis. The overall evidentiary picture suggests the designation was primarily driven by a procurement-policy and control dispute over Anthropic’s refusal to permit two specific categories of use [6][4][5]. In the sources reviewed, the government did not publicly identify any technical incident, compromise, foreign ownership link, or demonstrated model-sabotage event to substantiate its claims [6][4][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Statement on the comments from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth \ Anthropicanthropic.com
  2. 2Statement from Dario Amodei on our discussions with the Department of War \ Anthropicanthropic.com
  3. 3Where things stand with the Department of War \ Anthropicanthropic.com
  4. 4Analysis-Anthropic has strong case against Pentagon...finance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Judge rules the Pentagon's supply chain risk label for...keyt.com
  6. 6Pentagon vs. Anthropic & OpenAIlodi411.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The D.C. Circuit’s September 25, 2026 2–1 ruling upheld Anthropic’s supply-chain-risk designation under FASCSA, strengthening the surviving Pentagon exclusion. This makes a broad rescission of the US government’s Anthropic ban unlikely before June 2, 2027 [1][2][3]. The appellate decision allows the Department of War/Pentagon to continue excluding Claude from its systems and defense-contract work [2][3][4]. The dispute began after Anthropic refused the Pentagon’s demand for unrestricted “all lawful uses,” leading to Secretary Hegseth’s formal supply-chain-risk determination on March 3, 2026, with an ordered removal and an outside 180-day timeline [5][6]. A separate Northern District of California ruling reportedly blocked the administration’s broader government-wide designation [2][3][4]. The outer removal deadline for Department of War Anthropic-related activities was approximately September 2026, with a reported final deadline of September 30 [2][5][6].
Potential bullish catalysts for rescission include Anthropic technical remediation accepted by Commerce or the Pentagon, or a negotiated compromise that preserves government safety/use restrictions while restoring procurement eligibility [1][7]. Further, a court stay, an en banc reversal, Supreme Court intervention, or a White House policy change could lead to rescission [1][2][3]. Contractor or national-security costs resulting from the exclusion of Claude may also serve as a catalyst [1]. A Kalshi-linked market snapshot from September 8 showed 49% for rescission by January 1, 2027, while a calibrated forecast suggests about 35–45% (roughly 40%) for rescission of the Pentagon/federal procurement ban by June 2, 2027, with a partial waiver or negotiated modification as the highest-probability path [1][2][3].
Conversely, bearish catalysts include the D.C. Circuit precedent broadening “supply-chain risk,” continued White House/Pentagon insistence on unrestricted lawful use, and failure of Anthropic’s legal appeals [2][3][4]. Renewed security incidents or jailbreak evidence, alongside the implementation of the 180-day removal/contractor-certification process, could also maintain or strengthen the ban [2][3][8]. A June 12, 2026 export-control episode concerning foreign-national access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, triggered by government concerns about a potential jailbreak, indicated remediation could lead to revocation, described as a technical/political negotiation rather than a clean reversal [8][7][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 09, 2026
  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2D.C. Circuit Upholds Exclusion of Anthropic from DOW Supply Chain Under FASCSA | Insights | Holland & Knighthklaw.com
  3. 3DC Circuit Upholds Pentagon’s Anthropic Supply Chain Risk Designation – MeriTalkmeritalk.com
  4. 4Court Upholds Pentagon’s Ban on Anthropic – What Comes Next?dealbreaker.com
  5. 5D.C. Circuit Upholds the Anthropic Ban: What It Means for Federal Contractors - Government Contracts Navigatorgovernmentcontractsnavigator.com
  6. 6Court upholds Pentagon’s Anthropic AI exclusion | TECHitechi.com
  7. 7How the US vs. Anthropic Standoff on Claude Fable Endedfuturesearch.ai
  8. 8Anthropic's safety warnings may have just backfired — the government has pulled the plug on its most powerful AI | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  9. 9US government AI export control hits Anthropic with its own safety playbooken.cryptonomist.ch

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXANTHROPICRESCIND-26JUN-26AUG01: NO (Aug 01, 2026)