Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Trump trying to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor "Before 2027" (15.4% model vs. 26.0% market). This divergence is driven by the shifted relevance from Chair to Governor, where removal requires a high 'for cause' legal standard and Trump's prior leverage from a criminal probe was removed after its official closure on April 27, 2026.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has seen its price decline by half, moving from a starting probability of 6.0% to its current level of 3.0%. The initial 6.0% price appears to have been set following reports in mid-April 2026 that Trump threatened to fire Powell if he remained on the board past a mid-May date. However, the price began to drop shortly after that date passed, falling to 4.0% and then 3.0% by late May. This downward movement suggests traders discounted the likelihood of an attempted firing once the explicit deadline passed without incident and as Powell signaled his intention to stay until a successor is confirmed. The market also appears to have priced in legal analyses emphasizing that a Fed official can only be removed "for cause," a high legal bar that policy disagreements do not meet.
The overall trend has been a gradual decline followed by sideways movement within a very narrow range of 1.0% to 6.0%. The initial price of 6.0% has acted as a firm resistance level that has not been retested. The current price area around 3.0% and the market low of 1.0% may be forming a new support level. The total trading volume of 13,187 contracts indicates a notable level of interest and participation in the market, suggesting conviction among traders despite the low probabilities. Overall, the price action reflects a shift in market sentiment from viewing an attempted firing as a small but credible risk to seeing it as a highly improbable event. The market is now pricing this outcome as a remote possibility.
  • Powell's role shifted from Fed Chair to Governor by May 15, 2026.
  • Removing a Fed Governor requires a high 'for cause' legal standard.
  • Trump's criminal probe leverage was removed as of April 27, 2026.
  • Federal law appears to restrict a President's authority to remove governors.
  • Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Fed Chair on May 20, 2026.
  • The market probability rose by 9.0pp on May 20, 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2027 26.0% 15.4% Removal as Governor requires a high 'for cause' legal standard, and criminal probe leverage ended April 27, 2026.

Current Context

Trump threatened to fire Powell, but legal hurdles remained. In mid-April 2026, Donald Trump publicly threatened to remove Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve if he remained on the Board past May 15, stating, “then I’ll have to fire him” [1][2]. Powell, however, signaled his intention to stay until his successor, Kevin Warsh, was confirmed [3]. Legal analyses consistently emphasize that the Federal Reserve Act permits removal of a Fed official only "for cause," such as inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance, rather than for policy disagreements [4][5][6]. Should an attempt be made to remove Powell without such a basis, court involvement would be a likely outcome [4][5][6].
Market odds predicted a firing attempt, but Powell shifted roles. Before 2027, an April 16, 2026 market report indicated the probability of an attempt to fire Powell was consistently in the 40s, with odds for an attempt before June 1, 2026, approaching approximately 30% [7]. However, a May 26, 2026 report from Brookings confirmed that Kevin Warsh took office as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, succeeding Powell in that position [3]. While Powell’s term as chair concluded, his term as a Federal Reserve governor runs until January 2028, meaning any potential future "firing" would pertain to his role as a governor, still necessitating a "for cause" justification [3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Trump threatens to fire Fed chair as criminal probe dims outlook of his departurenbcnews.com
  2. 2Trump threatens to fire Fed chair Powell if he doesn't leave in Maybbc.com
  3. 3Who has to leave the Federal Reserve next? | Brookingsbrookings.edu
  4. 4What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? | Brookingsbrookings.edu
  5. 5Can Donald Trump Legally Fire Jerome Powell?news.northeastern.edu
  6. 6FAQ: Here’s what would happen if Trump actually tries to fire Powell | CNN Businesscnn.com
  7. 7Latest Odds for Trump to Fire Jerome Powellfederalnewsnetwork.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 20, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 18.0% to 27.0%

Outcome: Before 2027

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike was a traditional news report on May 13, 2026, from NBC News, stating "Trump threatens to fire Fed chair as criminal probe dims outlook of his departure" [1]. This report, appearing seven days before the market movement, directly increased the perceived likelihood of Trump attempting to remove Jerome Powell. Even though the Department of Justice closed its criminal investigation into Powell in April 2026 [1][2][3][4] and he was replaced as Fed Chair by Kevin Warsh on May 22, 2026 [2][5][6], Powell asserted he would remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors [2][6][7]. Trump's sustained threat to fire Powell, despite the resolution of the probe and the change in chairmanship, made it more probable that he would try to remove Powell from his Governor position. Based on the provided information, social media was not a primary driver.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Trump threatens to fire Fed chair as criminal probe dims outlook of his departurenbcnews.com
  2. 2Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Fed chair at White House, replacing Powell - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  3. 3US federal judge quashes subpoenas in Fed chair investigation | National | ashleynewsobserver.comashleynewsobserver.com
  4. 4Why the Decision Not to Prosecute Jerome Powell Damages Democracythefulcrum.us
  5. 5New Fed Reserve chair Kevin Warsh choked up as Trump slams agency for 'losing its way' - Politics - News - Daily Express USthe-express.com
  6. 6Who has to leave the Federal Reserve next? | Brookingsbrookings.edu
  7. 7"I'm literally staying because of... - Things You Don't Know | Facebookfacebook.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if the President attempts to fire Jerome Powell as Fed Chair or Governor before January 1, 2027. An attempt is defined by actions such as signing official termination documents, publicly stating a firing, directing an official to terminate, or initiating legal proceedings, but explicitly excludes calls for resignation or expressions of dissatisfaction. The market resolves to "No" if no such attempt is made by the deadline, focusing solely on the attempt regardless of its legal validity or success, and may close early upon an attempt.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before 2027 $0.25 $0.78 26%

Market Discussion

Traders are discussing whether former President Trump's impulsive behavior and public statements will lead him to attempt to fire Jerome Powell, with many emphasizing the market's broad definition of "try to fire." Arguments for "Yes" focus on Trump's history of public declarations and a perceived disregard for legal authority, noting the market resolves on the attempt, not success. Those leaning "No" primarily cite Trump's lack of legal authority, though this is often countered by the specific market rules that define "try to fire" broadly enough to include various official or public presidential actions.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 74 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score35High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score74Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
43Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract

Before 202743
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 39% vs realized 9%
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Before 2027—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Before 202795
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
35High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 43 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 8.1c slippage (~147% of a 5.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before 202743Market scoreLiquidity43Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 43
Liquidity
43 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 39% vs realized 9%
Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. What actions by Jerome Powell could Donald Trump legally frame as "cause" for removal from the Federal Reserve Board before 2027?

Removal Standard for Fed GovernorsRemovable only 'for cause' by the President [1][2]
Trump's Proposed Cause for RemovalFed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, cost overruns, misconduct allegations [3][4][5][6]
Legal Standard for Powell's RemovalSerious misconduct required; policy disagreement is insufficient [7][8][6]
The President can only remove Federal Reserve leaders for specified cause. Federal Reserve Board governors, including the Chair, can only be removed by the President "unless sooner removed for cause by the President" [1][2]. The legal framework for Federal Reserve independence supports Congress's ability to restrict presidential removal of independent commissioners to statutory "causes," a principle established by controlling precedent such as Humphrey’s Executor v. United States [9]. Donald Trump has publicly stated he would consider removing the Fed Chair "for cause" in relation to the Federal Reserve Board’s headquarters renovation, citing alleged cost overruns and misconduct [3][4][5][6].
Trump's specific allegations target the Fed's headquarters renovation. His claims regarding the renovation specifically focused on alleged cost overruns and misconduct, including misrepresentation in congressional testimony [3][4][5][6]. Trump would likely try to characterize these issues as "neglect of duty" or similar misconduct to justify a removal [3][4][5][6]. Legal analysis, however, indicates that serious misconduct would be necessary for Powell's removal, and policy disagreements alone are not sufficient grounds [6][7][8]. An expert has been quoted stating that it is not legal for a president to remove Powell unless there is "cause," and that Powell has not engaged in such misconduct [6][7][8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Federal Reserve Board - Section 10. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systemfederalreserve.gov
  2. 212 USC 242: Ineligibility to hold office in member banks; qualifications and terms of office of members; chairman and vice chairman; oath of officeuscode.house.gov
  3. 3How Trump could use a building renovation to oust Jerome Powellbnnbloomberg.ca
  4. 4How Trump could use a building renovation to oust Jerome Powell | AP Newsapnews.com
  5. 5Why Trump’s Fight Over the Fed’s HQ Renovation Mattersinvestopedia.com
  6. 6Can Donald Trump Legally Fire Jerome Powell?news.northeastern.edu
  7. 7Why Jerome Powell — not Trump — will decide when the Federal Reserve chief exits the scene - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  8. 8What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? | Brookingsbrookings.edu
  9. 9U.S. Reports: Humphrey's Executor v. U.S., 295 U.S. 602 (1935).tile.loc.gov

7. What are the procedural differences between replacing Powell as Fed Chair versus removing him as a Fed Governor before his term ends in 2028?

Powell's Fed Chair term concludedMay 2026 [1]
Powell's Fed Governor term endsJanuary 2028 [1][2]
Standard for removing a Fed Governor"for cause" [3][4][5][6]
Replacing a Federal Reserve Chair is a routine political appointment, whereas removing a Governor is extraordinary. Replacing a Fed Chair requires a presidential nomination and Senate confirmation [7]. Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair concluded in May 2026, and a new Chair was subsequently sworn in, meaning President Trump cannot "fire" him from that specific position [1][8][9][10]. In contrast, removing a Fed Governor mid-term is an extraordinary action that necessitates the President demonstrating "for cause" [3][4][5][6]. This "for cause" standard is a high legal bar, typically meaning serious misconduct, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office, and is almost certain to face significant legal challenges [3][4][5][6]. Nonetheless, Powell continues to serve as a Fed Governor until January 2028 [1][2].
Removing a Fed Governor requires a legally stringent "for cause" standard. Federal Reserve Governors are appointed to staggered 14-year terms and can only be removed from office "for cause" [11][12][13][1][3][4][14][5]. The United States (1935) Supreme Court case reinforced this standard, affirming Congress's power to protect officials of independent agencies from at-will presidential removal [4][6]. Therefore, any presidential attempt to remove Governor Powell from his current position would require proving "for cause" and would likely involve substantial legal hurdles [1][4][14][5][6]. This situation is similar to a recent attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook for alleged mortgage fraud, a case currently before the Supreme Court, with lower courts having temporarily blocked her removal [1][4][14][15][16][10][6].
Sources (16)
  1. 1brookings.edu
  2. 2youtube.com
  3. 3researchgate.net
  4. 4zandersonlaw.com
  5. 5brookings.edu
  6. 6morganlegalny.com
  7. 7chase.com
  8. 8wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9cato.org
  10. 10consumerfinancemonitor.com
  11. 11wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  12. 12stlouisfed.org
  13. 13federalreserve.gov
  14. 14marketplace.org
  15. 15mayerbrown.com
  16. 16epi.org

8. How do the monetary policy stances of Jerome Powell and potential successor Kevin Warsh differ, particularly on inflation and interest rates?

Powell's monetary stanceCautions, maintained higher rates due to sticky inflation and supply shocks [1][2][3]
Warsh's historical policyMonetary hawk with a focus on inflation [1][3][4][2]
Warsh's recent view on ratesAI-driven productivity may allow for lower interest rates without igniting inflation [1][4][2][3]
Jerome Powell favored cautious interest rate adjustments, contrasting with Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance. Powell's monetary policy was characterized by a traditional approach to interest rate adjustments, often citing sticky inflation and external supply shocks as reasons for maintaining higher rates [1][2][3]. Kevin Warsh, who assumed the role of Federal Reserve Chair shortly after May 15, 2026, has historically been perceived as a monetary hawk, primarily focused on controlling inflation [1][3][4][2].
Their differing views center on achieving lower interest rates without inflation. A significant divergence between Powell and Warsh lies in their outlook on achieving reduced interest rates without triggering inflationary pressures. Powell's tenure prioritized sustaining higher rates due to ongoing concerns about persistent inflation [1][2][3]. Conversely, Warsh has recently expressed more conditional views, suggesting that artificial intelligence-driven productivity gains could potentially allow for reduced interest rates without reigniting inflation [1][4][2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Prediction: It's Only a Matter of Time Before President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Are Butting Heads -- and Wall Street May Be the Big Loser | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2How much sway will newly sworn-in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh really have over interest rates? - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  3. 3Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Fed chair at White House, replacing Powell - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  4. 4Is Kevin Warsh a Hawk, a Dove, or the Next Volcker? Markets Are About to Find Outnews.bitcoin.com

9. What legal precedents govern a U.S. President's attempt to fire a Federal Reserve governor, and how might they apply to a potential Trump action against Powell?

Fed Governor Removal StandardOnly "for cause" (inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance) [1][2][3][4]
Status of Governor Lisa Cook's RemovalU.S. Supreme Court considering legality as of May 2026 [1][5][4]
Historical Precedent for RemovalNo President has successfully removed a Fed governor for cause [6][7]
Federal law restricts presidential authority to remove Federal Reserve governors. The Federal Reserve Act mandates that a governor may only be removed "for cause," a standard traditionally defined as inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance, rather than disagreements over policy [1][2][3][4]. This legal constraint has historically prevented any President from successfully removing a Fed governor [6][7].
The ongoing Trump v. Cook case tests removal authority limits. In 2025, former President Trump sought to remove Governor Lisa Cook, alleging pre-tenure mortgage fraud, which initiated the landmark litigation 'Trump v. Cook' [2][6][5][3]. This case centers on whether the President's actions met the "for cause" standard and the permissible scope of judicial review over such executive removals [2][6][5][3]. As of May 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court is deliberating the legality of Governor Cook's removal, having previously issued a stay or injunction to prevent her removal during the proceedings [1][5][4]. This intervention by the Supreme Court indicates significant skepticism regarding the administration's interpretation of presidential removal authority [1][5][4].
Demoting the Fed Chair is possible, but full removal difficult. While a President could theoretically demote the Fed Chair to a standard governor position, legal consensus suggests that their complete removal from the Board of Governors would still be subject to the "for cause" requirement [6][7]. Former President Trump has publicly stated, as of April 2026, his intent to fire current Fed Chair Jerome Powell if Powell does not resign when his term concludes [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Supreme Court considers validity of Trump's firing of Lisa Cook – Deseret Newsdeseret.com
  2. 2Trump v. Cooken.wikipedia.org
  3. 3The Fed-firing case in three steps | SCOTUSblogscotusblog.com
  4. 4Firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook | Economic Policy Instituteepi.org
  5. 5Supreme Court appears likely to prevent Trump from firing Fed governor | SCOTUSblogscotusblog.com
  6. 6What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? | Brookingsbrookings.edu
  7. 7Will Anybody Save Federal Reserve Independence?verdict.justia.com
  8. 8Trump: I'll fire Fed Chair Powell if he stays past termyoutube.com

10. What would be the expected judicial process and timeline if a Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell were legally challenged before 2027?

Removal Standard"for cause" (ethical violations or neglect of duty, not policy disagreements) [1][2]
Judicial ProcessWould almost certainly reach the Supreme Court [3][4][5][6]
Historical PrecedentDirect firing would be unprecedented [7][8]
Firing a Fed Chair requires specific legal justification. The Federal Reserve Act mandates that any removal of a Board of Governors member, including the Chair, can only occur "for cause" [1][7][2][9][10][11][12]. This standard typically necessitates reasons like ethical violations or neglect of duty, rather than disagreements over monetary policy [1][2]. Such a direct dismissal of the Fed Chair would be an unprecedented action [7][8].
Legal challenges to a firing would likely reach the Supreme Court. The judicial process for contesting such a removal would almost certainly advance to the Supreme Court [3][4][5][6]. The Court is presently reviewing cases that could further clarify presidential removal powers concerning independent agency heads, and it has recently expressed interest in the Humphrey's Executor precedent [3][4][5][6]. While certain rulings have supported the "unitary executive theory," implying broad presidential authority [13][9][3][4][6], the Federal Reserve's multi-member board structure might provide greater protection against at-will removal [3][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1quora.com
  2. 2conference-board.org
  3. 3klgates.com
  4. 4syr.edulawreview.syr.edu
  5. 5democracyforward.org
  6. 6campaignlegal.org
  7. 7pbs.org
  8. 8youtube.com
  9. 9harvard.edunews.harvard.edu
  10. 10brookings.edu
  11. 11wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  12. 12brookings.edu
  13. 13wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  14. 14gibsondunn.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The leadership of the Federal Reserve saw a change as Jerome Powell's term as Chair ended on May 15, 2026, and Kevin Warsh was confirmed as his successor on May 20, 2026 [1][2][3]. Despite this, Powell remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, with his term extending until 2028 [1][2][3].
Previously, President Trump had threatened to fire Jerome Powell due to policy disagreements and a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project [4][5][6][7]. Legal consensus and precedent suggested a President cannot fire a Fed governor or chair without 'cause,' which Trump failed to demonstrate [4][5][6][7]. Adding to the shift, a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell was officially closed by U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro on April 27, 2026, removing a major point of political leverage used by the Trump administration to pressure Powell's departure [3]. With Powell no longer serving as Fed Chair and the criminal investigation closed, the relevance of prediction markets tracking Trump's attempts to fire Powell has largely diminished [8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 15, 2026
  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1Prediction: It's Only a Matter of Time Before President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Are Butting Heads -- and Wall Street May Be the Big Loser | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Trump finally got the Fed boss he wanted but Wall Street experts say Kevin Warsh may be walking straight into a trap | Daily Mail Onlinedailymail.com
  3. 3Why the Decision Not to Prosecute Jerome Powell Damages Democracythefulcrum.us
  4. 4Trump threatens to fire Fed chair as criminal probe dims outlook of his departurenbcnews.com
  5. 5Latest Odds for Trump to Fire Jerome Powellfederalnewsnetwork.com
  6. 6Realtor.com - President Trump renewed his threat to fire... | Facebookfacebook.com
  7. 7Trump: I'll fire Fed Chair Powell if he stays past termyoutube.com
  8. 8Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12-GOV1: NO (May 15, 2026)