Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the federal government will start mining Bitcoin before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Based on the chart data, the prediction market for "Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin?" has demonstrated a stable and sideways trend. The probability has been confined to a very narrow trading range, fluctuating between a low of 5.2% and a high of 8.0%. The market opened at 7.5% and is currently at its peak of 8.0%, indicating a marginal increase in perceived probability over the observed period. There have been no significant price spikes or drops, and the price action suggests a consistent, low-probability assessment from traders. Lacking any specific news or developments in the provided context, the minor fluctuations appear to be driven by normal market activity rather than a reaction to any particular event.
The total trading volume of 1,819 contracts is relatively light, and the sample data points show periods of zero volume, which suggests that trading activity is infrequent. This low volume could indicate a lack of strong conviction or broad market participation. The price floor around 5.2% has served as a support level, while the 8.0% mark has acted as resistance, defining the tight channel in which the price has moved. Overall, the chart indicates a strong and stable market sentiment that views the federal government starting to mine Bitcoin in 2025 as a highly improbable outcome. The consensus has remained firmly below the 10% probability level throughout the market's history.
  • No explicit US policy proposals detail federal government Bitcoin mining.
  • Conservative legal circles explore executive orders for federal Bitcoin mining.
  • DOE's LPO is designated to operate a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve program.
  • Treasury's FY 2026 budget funds strategic digital asset acquisition initiatives.
  • Private energy firms' lobbying positions on Bitcoin mining remain undisclosed.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2027 8.0% 5.5% A potential Trump administration could promote federal Bitcoin mining for energy independence.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or an entity announces or begins Bitcoin mining operations before January 1, 2027, confirmed by a specified list of government and major news sources. Otherwise, it resolves to "No". The market closes early if the "Yes" event occurs, or by January 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST, with "Bitcoin mining" defined as using computer systems or specialized hardware to validate transactions and add blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain for newly issued bitcoins.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before 2027 $0.08 $0.94 8%

Market Discussion

The market indicates a strong consensus that the federal government will not start mining Bitcoin before 2027, with the "Yes" outcome currently priced at only 8%. Arguments for "Yes" are largely speculative, suggesting a future administration might initiate it as part of a broader financial system overhaul involving the collapse of traditional banks and a shift to gold, silver, and Bitcoin. While explicit arguments for "No" are minimal in the discussion, the market's overwhelming probability reflects a widespread belief that this event is highly unlikely.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 74 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score32High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score74Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
40Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract

Before 202740
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Before 2027—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Before 2027100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
32High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 40 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 3.0c slippage (~79% of a 3.8c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before 202740Market scoreLiquidity40Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 40
Liquidity
40 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. Do US Policy Proposals Detail Federal Government Bitcoin Mining?

Federal Mining ProposalsNot explicitly detailed by David Bailey, Scaramucci, or Project 2025 personnel [1].
Trump's StancePledged to support Bitcoin mining initiatives generally [2].
Primary Policy FocusCreating a supportive environment for private sector mining and exploring strategic reserves [3].
No explicit proposals exist for federal government Bitcoin mining from prominent pro-crypto figures or organizations in the available research. While there is significant advocacy for the United States to establish leadership in the Bitcoin ecosystem, the provided information does not explicitly detail specific policy proposals or transition memos for the federal government itself to start mining Bitcoin from individuals like David Bailey, Anthony Scaramucci, or personnel associated with the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025. Instead, existing proposals typically concentrate on fostering a supportive environment for private sector mining operations and exploring the concept of strategic reserves.
Pro-crypto figures champion private sector growth and strategic reserves to advance U.S. leadership. David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine and an advisor to Donald Trump, advocates for active U.S. leadership within the Bitcoin ecosystem [1], with Trump pledging general support for Bitcoin mining initiatives [2]. The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) has drafted comprehensive policy frameworks aimed at U.S. leadership on Bitcoin [3] and provided recommendations for "Bitcoin Policy Under the Trump Administration: The First Thirty Days" [4]. BPI has also evaluated the concept of establishing a "Digital Gold: Evaluating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the United States" [5], intending to integrate Bitcoin into national strategy by fostering a robust domestic industry.
Project 2025 and Scaramucci do not explicitly detail federal mining in their reviewed proposals. Despite engagement with the crypto community by Project 2025 [6] and the publication of their extensive "Mandate for Leadership" [7], specific details regarding federal Bitcoin mining initiatives are not explicitly outlined in their proposals within the provided context. The overarching focus of the pro-crypto movement and related policy discussions, as reflected in these sources, appears to be on regulatory clarity and incentivizing private sector growth, rather than the federal government directly initiating mining operations. Anthony Scaramucci is not linked to specific policy drafting in the available information.
Sources (7)
  1. 1'Liking Bitcoin' Is Not Enough For US Government: David Baileycointelegraph.com
  2. 2Trump Pledges To Support Bitcoin Mining Initiativesbtctimes.com
  3. 3A Comprehensive Policy Framework for U.S. Leadership on Bitcoin | Bitcoin Policy Institutebtcpolicy.org
  4. 4Bitcoin Policy Under the Trump Administration: The First Thirty Days | Bitcoin Policy Institutebtcpolicy.org
  5. 5Digital Gold: Evaluating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the United States | Bitcoin Policy Institutebtcpolicy.org
  6. 6How Crypto Embraced Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Project 2025time.com
  7. 7https://static.heritage.org/project2025/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdfstatic.heritage.org

6. What Legal Theories Support Federal Bitcoin Mining Initiatives?

Executive Order AuthorityStrategic Bitcoin Reserve could be initiated by presidential executive order [1]
Defense Production Act (DPA)Invoked for critical grid infrastructure, equipment, and baseload power generation [2]
Congressional ActionNew legislation, such as the "Mined in America Act," proposed for U.S. digital asset mining [3]
Conservative legal circles explore executive orders and the DPA for federal Bitcoin mining. Executive authority to initiate Bitcoin mining is being considered through avenues such as establishing a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" via executive order, drawing on broad presidential powers related to national security or economic stability [1]. Although the Defense Production Act (DPA) is not explicitly cited for direct federal initiation of Bitcoin mining, it has been used by presidential determination to secure capacity and supply chains for critical grid infrastructure, equipment, and baseload power generation, including coal [2]. This suggests that if federal Bitcoin mining were deemed critical for national energy resilience or grid stability, arguments could be made for DPA application to secure necessary infrastructure and energy resources.
Congressional action is essential for sustained federal Bitcoin mining efforts. The prevailing legal theory also strongly indicates that comprehensive and prolonged federal involvement in Bitcoin mining would require statutory backing from Congress. Republican senators have introduced legislation, such as the "Mined in America Act," which aims to boost U.S. digital asset mining and formally "cement" a proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve [3]. This legislative push underscores the view that while an executive order might initiate such a reserve, extensive, long-term federal engagement, particularly its expansion, requires a more robust and less legally vulnerable foundation provided by Congress. Discussions within the Federalist Society on topics like "Crypto, Data Centers, and Climate" likely delve into these jurisdictional boundaries and the necessity of legislative frameworks for novel economic activities involving digital assets and energy infrastructure [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Trump Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Assenatlawreview.com
  2. 2Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 303 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as Amended, on Grid Infrastructure, Equipment, and Supply Chain Capacity – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  3. 3GOP senators unveil 'Mined in America Act' to expand crypto mining, cement strategic bitcoin reserve | The Blocktheblock.co
  4. 4Crypto, Data Centers, and Climatefedsoc.org

7. What is the Department of Energy's role in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve?

Designated OperatorDOE's Loan Programs Office (LPO) [1]
Targeted Energy Capacity10 gigawatts (GW) by Q4 2025 [1]
Domestic ASIC Sourcing80% by Q3 2025 [1]
The Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office (LPO) has been designated to operate the federal mining program known as the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve [1]. This initiative, established by former President Donald J. Trump, aims to create a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. The LPO was selected for this role due to its extensive experience in financing significant energy infrastructure projects [2].
The LPO actively seeks 10 GW of energy by Q4 2025. In its operational capacity, the office is engaging with major energy providers, initiating discussions and preliminary negotiations to secure energy contracts. The program's objective is to secure approximately 10 gigawatts (GW) of committed baseload and renewable energy capacity by the conclusion of fiscal year 2025 (Q4 2025). Efforts are specifically focused on obtaining preferential rates for renewable energy to power the bitcoin mining operations [1].
ASIC hardware supply chains nearing completion by mid-2025. Initial assessments project that 80% of the required application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) hardware can be sourced from manufacturers in the United States and allied nations. The establishment of these supply chains is anticipated to be largely finalized by mid-2025 or Q3 2025, with ongoing diversification efforts for the remaining 20% [1].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Federal Register, Volume 90 Issue 46 (Tuesday, March 11, 2025)govinfo.gov
  2. 2Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Establishes the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile – ]whitehouse.gov

8. How Do Bitcoin Mining and Energy Companies Impact Grid Stability?

Lobbying Focus (Southern/Constellation)Broad energy policy, reliability, clean energy procurement; specific Bitcoin mining positions not detailed [1]
ERCOT Energy DemandStrong growth from cryptocurrency mining [2]
Bitcoin Miners' Grid RoleAct as "flexible load" by curtailing consumption, aiding reliability [3]
Private lobbying positions on Bitcoin mining remain undisclosed for major energy firms. The available research does not detail specific private lobbying stances of Southern Company or Constellation Energy regarding a large-scale, federally-backed Bitcoin mining initiative. Southern Company's policy engagement emphasizes responsible energy policy, balanced energy solutions, and ensuring grid reliability and affordability, with general lobbying efforts focused on energy, environment, utilities, and tax issues [1]. Constellation Energy primarily concentrates on clean nuclear energy procurement and baseload power development, such as the 835 MW Crane Clean Energy Center [4]. There is no information indicating that these companies are advocating for or against Bitcoin mining as a grid stabilization tool or due to energy demand concerns.
Bitcoin mining significantly drives Texas's power demand but also offers grid flexibility. In the ERCOT-managed Texas grid, cryptocurrency mining substantially contributes to increased power demand, prompting regulatory actions such as registration requirements for some miners [2]. Despite their role in driving demand, Bitcoin miners are also recognized for their capacity to participate in demand response programs. They can rapidly reduce their energy consumption during periods of high grid stress or peak demand, effectively functioning as "flexible load" or "interruptible load" [3]. This characteristic suggests that Bitcoin mining operations, when integrated with demand response, could potentially stabilize the grid by enabling quick reductions in overall demand [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Southern Company - Sustainability - Policy Engagement and Advocacyinvestor.southerncompany.com
  2. 2Data centers and cryptocurrency mining in Texas drive strong power demand growth - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  3. 3What the SEC spot-bitcoin ETF decision means for the Texas gridweb2.w.houstonchronicle.com
  4. 4Constellation Wins Record-Setting Federal Government Clean Nuclear Energy Procurementconstellationenergy.com

9. What Digital Asset and Grid Initiatives Are in the FY 2026 Budget?

Strategic Digital Asset AcquisitionIncluded in FY 2026 Presidential Budget Request (Department of the Treasury) [1]
Digital Asset Stockpile DirectiveFormal directive published March 2025 (Federal Register) [2]
Grid-Stabilizing Computational ActivitiesIncluded in FY 2026 Department of Energy budget [3]
Treasury's FY 2026 budget funds strategic digital asset acquisition initiatives. The first Presidential Budget Request for Fiscal Year 2026, released in 2025, includes specific line-item appropriations within the Department of the Treasury for 'strategic digital asset acquisition' [1]. This funding supports initiatives for national digital asset reserves, following a formal directive published in the Federal Register in March 2025 that established the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and United States Digital Asset Stockpile" [2]. The Treasury Department is designated as the lead agency for implementing and overseeing this national digital asset stockpile, which aims to bolster financial resilience and strategic reserves [2]. Further economic justifications for these initiatives are present in the Council of Economic Advisers' FY 2026 Congressional Justification [4].
DOE's FY 2026 budget allocates funds for grid-stabilizing computational activities. The Department of Energy's (DOE) FY 2026 budget request contains specific line-item appropriations and directive language for 'grid-stabilizing computational activities' [3]. Detailed within the DOE FY 2026 Budget Justification, these funds are earmarked for pilot programs [5]. These programs are designed to explore and implement the use of high-density computational infrastructure to balance electricity grids, specifically through demand response mechanisms and the efficient utilization of surplus renewable energy [5]. These activities are part of a broader strategy to enhance grid reliability and resilience, contributing to national energy security objectives [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1FY 2026 Budget in Brief | U.S. Department of the Treasuryhome.treasury.gov
  2. 2Establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and United States Digital Asset Stockpilefederalregister.gov
  3. 3DOE FY 2026 Budget in Briefenergy.gov
  4. 4https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/266/04.-CEA-FY-2026-CJ.pdfhome.treasury.gov
  5. 5FY 2026 Budget Justification | Department of Energyenergy.gov