Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Mamdani to tax incomes over $1M before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market has followed a distinct downward trend, with the perceived probability of the tax being implemented falling from a starting point of 15.0% to its current level of 9.0%. The market saw a brief spike to 17.0% around May 2 before experiencing a significant drop to 9.0% by May 8. This sharp decrease in price likely reflects the market's assessment of the political realities surrounding the proposal. While Mayor Mamdani has proposed the tax, its implementation requires state legislative approval. The market's sharp reversal from its peak suggests that traders may have quickly priced in the difficulty of securing that approval before the 2027 deadline, viewing it as a major obstacle.
The price action suggests the market has established a support level near the all-time low of 8.4%, with the current price hovering just above it. Resistance appears to be in the 17-20% range, a level the market has been unable to sustain. Although the provided sample data points show zero volume, the total traded volume of over 7,300 contracts indicates significant overall participation. The sharp price movements suggest that when trading does occur, it reflects strong conviction. Overall, the chart indicates a persistent bearish sentiment, with market participants assigning a low probability to the successful passage and implementation of this specific tax on incomes over $1 million within the specified timeframe.
- Governor Hochul consistently opposes new New York City income tax authority.
- The proposed millionaire's tax needs state legislative approval for FY2027 budget.
- Mamdani's FY2027 preliminary budget identifies increased income tax as preferred revenue.
- Policy groups argue a millionaire tax risks high-income earner mobility.
- The millionaire's tax significantly outperforms pied-à-terre in projected FY2027 revenue.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9.0% | 7.8% | Mamdani is expected to tax incomes over $1M before 2027. |
Current Context
Mayor Mamdani proposes new taxes requiring state legislative approval. Zohran Mamdani, who was elected NYC Mayor in 2025 and took office in January 2026 [1], has put forward several significant tax proposals aimed at generating revenue for the city. These include a 2% city income tax surcharge on all earnings exceeding $1 million, which is estimated to generate $4 billion [2][3][4]. He also proposed a corporate tax hike, aiming for a combined $5 billion in new revenue [3][4]. Additionally, in April 2026, a pied-à-terre tax was suggested, which would levy $500 million annually on second homes valued at $5 million or more [5][6]. All these proposals are contingent on New York State law changes and crucially require the assent of Governor Hochul, with the income and corporate tax plans tied to the Fiscal Year 2027 budget [7][4].
NYC faces budget shortfalls; tax proposals have low market odds. The city's Fiscal Year 2027 preliminary budget totals $127 billion, but it projects a $5.4 billion gap even after accounting for various savings [4][8]. Should the proposed tax increases not be implemented, a fallback option of a 9.5% property tax hike is available [4][8]. As of May 8, 2026, there is no evidence of the proposed income tax law having been enacted, and active prediction markets suggest it has not yet passed [9][8]. Polymarket shows a 14% "Yes" probability, Solflare indicates 18% "Yes," and Kalshi reports low odds for Mamdani taxing incomes over $1 million before 2027, based on data from April-May 2026 [10][11][12][9].
Sources (12)
- 1Mamdani’s NYC: Vote for hope, inherit the debtamericanbazaaronline.com
- 2Mamdani wants to change the tax code. Here’s what that could look like. - Gothamistbeta.gothamist.com
- 3Parsing the Impact of Mamdani's Tax Hike Plans - Empire Center for Public Policyempirecenter.org
- 4Mayor Mamdani Releases Balanced Fiscal Year 2027 Preliminary Budget - NYC Mayor's Officenyc.gov
- 5NYC's plan to tax luxury second homes, explainedbusinessinsider.com
- 6‘We’re taxing the rich’: NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani announces $500M luxury home levynews.meaww.com
- 7The Tax Question: Would Mamdani’s Proposed Super-Tax on Millionaires and Corporate Rate Increases Reshape NYC Economic Competitiveness? – The Mamdani Postmamdanipost.com
- 8NYC Budget 2026-27 — $127B Budget Tracker | ReviewMamdani.comreviewmamdani.com
- 9Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M 2026? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 10Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? | Politics Prediction Markets | Solflaresolflare.com
- 11Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? Pre... | Polymarketworldcoin.polymarket.com
- 12Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? Pre... | Polymarketpolymarket.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if a law authorizing a new personal income tax bracket or surcharge on incomes over $1 million for New York City residents becomes binding law in New York City before January 1, 2027. Enactment requires the completion of all constitutional and legal requirements, including executive approval and any waiting periods; New York State laws applying to NYC are also included. The market resolves to NO if this condition is not met by the deadline, closing by December 31, 2026, if the outcome has not occurred earlier.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | $0.09 | $0.91 | 9% |
Market Discussion
Traders are primarily discussing the legislative efforts to tax incomes over $1 million in New York City. The main argument for "Yes" centers on the recent introduction of the "Fair Share Act" by New York State Senators John Liu and Phara Souffrant Forrest, which proposes this type of tax. While a "No" argument incorrectly claimed the mayor cannot change taxes, this was countered by pointing out the cited legislation comes from state senators, and the market rules confirm that New York State laws applying to NYC would resolve the market to "Yes." Despite specific legislation being introduced, current market odds heavily favor "No," indicating low confidence in the tax passing before 2027.
4. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score50Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score78Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What is Governor Hochul's public stance in 2026 on granting New York City new income tax authority?
| Governor's Stance on Income Tax | Not entertaining income or corporate taxes (2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Pied-à-terre Tax Threshold | $5 million or more for luxury second homes [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] |
| Finalized State Budget | $268 billion (May 2026) [3][4][7] |
Governor Hochul consistently opposes granting New York City new income tax authority. Her primary objective is to maintain affordability and prevent taxpayers from leaving the state [3][4][1][6][7][10]. She explicitly stated in 2026, "As I've said, I'm clearly not entertaining income taxes or corporate taxes, full stop," reinforcing her firm stance despite ongoing pressure for increased taxation on wealthier residents [1].
Hochul has resisted broad income tax increases despite calls for them. Despite calls from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and various progressive groups for higher income taxes on the wealthy to address the city's budget deficit, Governor Hochul has repeatedly rejected such measures [3][4][1][6][7][10]. Further demonstrating her disinclination towards increasing tax burdens on individuals, she proposed eliminating New York State income taxes on up to $25,000 of tipped income [11][3][7][10][12].
A "pied-à-terre" tax on luxury second homes was the only exception. While resisting broad income tax hikes, Governor Hochul did propose and reach an agreement on a specific "pied-à-terre" tax for luxury second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. This particular tax was supported to assist Mayor Mamdani's budget efforts, aiming to generate revenue without affecting everyday New Yorkers [2][3][4][5][8]. The finalized $268 billion state budget, announced in May 2026, incorporates this pied-à-terre tax but notably excludes any provisions for raising other taxes on the state's wealthiest individuals or corporations, confirming "There's not an income tax" in this budget [3][4][7].
6. What are the primary economic arguments against the millionaire tax from policy groups like the Empire Center?
| Increased out-migration | High-income earners (over $25 million) in New York increased out-migration following tax rate increases [1] |
|---|---|
| Millionaire growth rate | New York added millionaire earners at a slower rate than the national average [2] |
| Existing tax code progression | Existing tax codes, like New York's, are already progressive, with lower and middle-income families often paying little to no income tax or a lower effective rate [3][4] |
Policy groups, such as the Empire Center, primarily argue against a millionaire tax due to concerns about high-income earner mobility. This "footloose" nature of wealthy individuals can lead to out-migration from a state, subsequently eroding its tax base [5][6][1][7][8]. Such a dynamic creates an unstable revenue stream and can impede overall economic growth [5][6][1][9][2].
New York's experience suggests a link between tax policies and millionaire migration patterns. The Empire Center highlights this by citing data indicating an increase in out-migration by high-income earners in New York, particularly those earning over $25 million, following tax rate increases [1]. Additionally, New York has added millionaire earners at a slower rate than the national average, suggesting a potential connection to its tax policies [2]. This contributes to a "top-heavy" and unstable revenue base, making state budgeting more precarious as it becomes highly susceptible to significant negative swings during economic downturns [5][6][1][9]. Furthermore, such tax policies are believed to hinder overall economic growth and wealth creation, as businesses and individuals may choose to locate or expand in states with more favorable tax environments [5][6][2].
Current tax codes are already progressive, and spending controls offer an alternative to new taxes. The Empire Center asserts that existing tax codes, including New York's, are already progressive. They note that lower and middle-income families often pay little to no income tax or a lower effective rate than high-income earners due to more generous exemptions, credits, and deductions [3][4]. Instead of imposing additional taxes, they suggest that budget gaps could alternatively be addressed by constraining spending growth [5][6].
7. How does the proposed millionaire's tax compare to the pied-à-terre tax in terms of projected FY2027 revenue and political viability in Albany?
| Millionaire's Tax Revenue (FY2027) | $1.5 billion to $4 billion (or $2.5-3 billion with corporate) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Pied-à-terre Tax Revenue (FY2027) | $340-510 million [5][6][7][8][9] |
| NYC FY2027 Budget Gap | $5.4 billion [10][4] |
The proposed millionaire's tax significantly outperforms the pied-à-terre tax in projected FY2027 revenue. The millionaire's tax, which would impose a 2% surcharge on incomes exceeding $1 million and affect approximately 85,000 households, is estimated to generate between $1.5 billion and $4 billion. When combined with corporate tax adjustments, revenue projections narrow to $2.5-3 billion [1][2][3][4]. In contrast, the pied-à-terre tax, a surcharge on non-primary residences valued over $5 million impacting around 11,200 properties, has official revenue estimates ranging from $500-510 million. However, adjusted figures suggest a lower yield of $340-380 million [5][6][7][8][9]. These proposals emerge as New York City faces an FY2027 budget gap of approximately $5.4 billion after aid [10][4].
The pied-à-terre tax demonstrates greater political momentum in Albany, having advanced further in the legislative process. Governor Hochul announced and began advancing this proposal in April 2026 [8][11]. Both tax proposals require state approval to be enacted [1]. Conversely, Governor Hochul has voiced opposition to the income tax components of the millionaire's tax [1][12][13], despite its inclusion in Democratic one-house bills in March 2026 [11]. As of May 8, 2026, there is no indication that the millionaire's tax has been enacted [14].
Sources (14)
- 1Mamdani pushes tax proposal aimed at the city’s wealthiest residentswheninyourstate.com
- 2The Tax Question: Would Mamdani’s Proposed Super-Tax on Millionaires and Corporate Rate Increases Reshape NYC Economic Competitiveness? – The Mamdani Postmamdanipost.com
- 3Mamdani wants to change the tax code. Here’s what that could look like. - Gothamistbeta.gothamist.com
- 4MAMDANI’S FIRST 100 DAYS: Mayor tells Albany budget gap shrunk by $5 billion, pushes wealth tax to further close it | amNewYorkamny.com
- 5Pied-à-terre, hit or miss? Comptroller says NYC second-home tax could score $500M — or fall short | amNewYorkamny.com
- 6NYC pied-à-terre tax could raise less than Hochul's $500M estimate, report finds6sqft.com
- 7NYC Comptroller Mark Levine Releases Comprehensive Estimation of a Potential Pied-à-Terre Tax and Highlights Key Variables - Office of the New York City Comptroller Mark Levinecomptroller.nyc.gov
- 8Governor Hochul Announces Pied-à-terre Tax Proposal for Luxury Second Homes Valued at $5 Million or More | Governor Kathy Hochul | New York Stategovernor.ny.gov
- 9The Pied-à-Terre Tax and Its Potential Revenues - Office of the New York City Comptroller Mark Levinecomptroller.nyc.gov
- 10Mayor Mamdani Releases Balanced Fiscal Year 2027 Preliminary Budget - NYC Mayor's Officenyc.gov
- 11NY Gov. Hochul backs pied-a-terre tax in partial concession to Mamdanieu.usatoday.com
- 12WXXI Newswxxinews.org
- 13NY lawmakers back Mamdani push to tax the rich, setting up clash with Hochul | NCPR Newsnorthcountrypublicradio.org
- 14Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? Pre... | Polymarketpolymarket.com
8. What is the official legislative calendar for the New York State FY2027 budget, including key deadlines for passage in 2026?
| Fiscal Year Start Date | April 1 [1] |
|---|---|
| Budget Submission Deadline (Typical) | Mid-January or Feb. 1 in election years [2] |
| FY2027 Budget Agreement Date | May 7, 2026 [3] |
New York's budget process follows a structured annual legislative calendar. The Governor typically submits the executive budget, along with associated appropriation, revenue, and budget bills, by mid-January, or by February 1 in election years [2]. The state's fiscal year spans from April 1 to March 31, designating April 1 as the key deadline for budget enactment [1]. Additionally, a consensus economic and revenue forecasting report is due by March 1; if no consensus is reached, the Comptroller must provide a binding revenue forecast by March 5 [2].
The FY2027 budget enactment significantly exceeded the April 1 deadline. For the FY2027 budget process in 2026, the legislative deadline was missed [3]. Governor Kathy Hochul confirmed by May 7, 2026, that an agreement had been reached with legislative leaders, and a vote on the budget was expected in the days immediately following [3][4]. Reports indicate that the April 1 deadline is frequently not met, often necessitating multiple budget extenders before final action is taken [5].
No official FY2027 budget source confirms a new state income tax. An authoritative official source was not found to confirm whether the enacted FY2027 budget definitively includes or excludes a state-level income tax on "incomes over $1M" that would apply before 2027 [6]. Instead, search results highlighted ongoing negotiations and specific tax proposals, such as those from Mamdani concerning taxing wealthy residents or absentee owners, which are distinct from an enacted FY2027 state law for a general "tax incomes over $1M" [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1The Budget Processbudget.ny.gov
- 2Legislative Action (January – March)budget.ny.gov
- 3Agreement reached to move ahead and pass New York’s FY 2027 budgetwbng.com
- 4Hochul reaches budget deal with New York lawmakers, ending 5-week deadlock - syracuse.comsyracuse.com
- 5State Budget | NY State of Politicsnystateofpolitics.com
- 6Mamdani, Hochul's Proposed Tax on the Rich to Address Budget Gap - Business Insiderbusinessinsider.com
- 7NY lawmakers back Mamdani push to tax the rich, setting up clash with Hochul - Gothamistgothamist.com
- 8Zohran Mamdani's wish to tax NYC super-rich gets a partial winmsn.com
9. What legislative hurdles must the millionaire tax clear in Albany to be included in the FY2027 state budget?
| Proposed Surcharge | 2-3% city income tax surcharge on earners over $1 million (estimated $1.5-3 billion revenue) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| FY2027 State Budget | $268 billion [4] |
| Budget Agreement Date | May 7, 2026 [4] |
New York City's proposed millionaire tax requires state legislative approval. The proposal involves a 2-3% city income tax surcharge on earners over $1 million, estimated to generate $1.5-3 billion. This measure cannot be enacted without a state law change in Albany because New York State's tax code prevents New York City from implementing new income taxes without explicit authorization from the New York State Legislature [1][2][3].
Governor Hochul opposes the tax, which is absent from the FY2027 budget. The proposal faces strong opposition from Governor Hochul, who has consistently rejected such measures since 2021, despite the Democratic-controlled Legislature supporting one-house bills for it in March 2026 [5][6]. Furthermore, the FY2027 state budget, totaling $268 billion, was agreed upon on May 7, 2026, with an explicit statement confirming it "won't raise income or statewide business taxes" [4]. This agreement, which is awaiting a final vote, thus excludes the millionaire tax from the current budget deal [4][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Mamdani pushes tax proposal aimed at the city’s wealthiest residentswheninyourstate.com
- 2The Tax Question: Would Mamdani’s Proposed Super-Tax on Millionaires and Corporate Rate Increases Reshape NYC Economic Competitiveness? – The Mamdani Postmamdanipost.com
- 3Mamdani’s New Albany Asks: Smaller Corporate Tax Hike, Fees on Pricey…nysfocus.com
- 4Agreement reached to move ahead and pass New York’s FY 2027 budgetwbng.com
- 5NY lawmakers back Mamdani push to tax the rich, setting up clash with Hochul - Gothamistgothamist.com
- 6WXXI Newswxxinews.org
- 7After weeks overdue, Gov. Hochul to make budget announcementcbs6albany.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Polymarket’s “Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?” currently shows an implied crowd probability of 14% for “Yes,” with resolution scheduled around Dec 31, 2026 [1].
NYC’s official FY2027 preliminary budget release states the Mamdani administration’s preferred solution to revenue gaps is recurring revenue via increasing personal income taxes on New Yorkers earning more than $1M annually and raising taxes on the most profitable corporations [2].
NYC’s FY2027 preliminary budget release also states that absent new revenue authority, the city will be forced to use tools like property taxes and reserves, indicating the $1M-income tax proposal faces implementation/authorization uncertainty [2].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
