Which G7 leader will leave next?

No direct evidence shows LDP factions demanded Kishida's resignation before July 4th. While Prime Minister Fumio Kishida faced considerable pressure and a growing divide within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) prior to the UK's July 4th election, available research does not detail specific private discussions where the LDP's Aso and Motegi factions explicitly demanded his resignation by that date to preempt further damage from the ongoing fundraising scandal. Reports before July 4th did indicate mounting pressure on Kishida within the LDP to forgo re-election, with discontent spreading even among his supporters ^[1]. Despite this general discontent, including calls from local LDP chapters for Kishida to step down, there were "no open calls from within the LDP leadership for Kishida to resign" as of mid-June 2024 ^[2].

Disagreements primarily centered on political reforms and fund regulation, rather than a resignation demand. Instead, a rift emerged within the LDP leadership, with LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi and Vice President Taro Aso reportedly dissatisfied with compromises on political reforms and fund regulation ^[3]. These disagreements between Kishida, Motegi, and Aso over revising the political funds control law were seen as potentially undermining both the party and the prime minister’s leadership ^[4]. Therefore, while dissatisfaction among key allies and general pressure for change were present, the sources do not confirm private discussions by the Aso and Motegi factions explicitly demanding Kishida's resignation before the UK's July 4th election as a pre-emptive measure for the fundraising scandal.

Jordan Bardella has established an absolute majority as a non-negotiable condition for governance. The leader of the National Rally has explicitly stated he will decline the role of Prime Minister or the formation of a government without securing an absolute majority in the National Assembly following the elections ^[1]. He contends that a relative majority would impede effective action, declaring, "To act, we need an absolute majority. An absolute majority will allow us to govern. If tomorrow the French give us a relative majority, we will not be able to act" ^[1]. This demand presents a direct challenge to forming a stable government in a hung parliament scenario, potentially leading to political paralysis if an absolute majority is not achieved.

Beyond numerical strength, Bardella insists on controlling key government portfolios. He seeks authority over critical domains such as finances, security, and notably, foreign and defense policy ^[2]. Bardella has publicly affirmed that he would not function as a mere implementer of the President's agenda, stating, "If the president of the republic considers that he is the one who sets the course and I am the one who executes it, then the French will not be able to count on me" ^[2]. Regarding Ukraine, while acknowledging that France would not "directly call into question the commitments made by France on the international level" concerning overall support, Bardella stated he would refuse to deploy long-range missiles or French troops. His aim is to prevent an escalation of the conflict, as he maintains that Russia poses no "existential threat" to France ^[3]. Such fundamental disagreements on critical foreign policy matters, especially combined with Bardella's demand for control over foreign policy, could render cohabitation untenable and potentially trigger a resignation crisis ^[2].

Credit Default Swaps do not quantify government collapse probability from defections. It is not possible to derive a precise probability of a "government collapse scenario" before October 2024, specifically linked to party defections, directly from Credit Default Swaps (CDS) data ^[1]. CDS primarily reflect the market's perception of a sovereign's risk of defaulting on its debt, rather than the probability of specific political events like coalition breakdowns. However, the current CDS levels indicate the relative perceived financial stability of both governments. As of May 17, 2024, Italy's 5-year CDS stood at 62.72 points, while Germany's 5-year CDS were significantly lower at 14.12 points on the same date ^[1].

Market indicators show improved sovereign risk perception for both nations. Recent trends show Italy's default risk is at its lowest since 2011, and its bond spread over Germany dropped below 100 basis points in early 2024, reflecting improved market sentiment towards Italian debt ^[4]. Similarly, Germany's 10-year swap spread reached a 20-year low in late 2024, signaling robust market confidence in its sovereign stability ^[5]. Regarding specific party defection risks, available information indicates Italy's Prime Minister Meloni's coalition faces "risks and challenges" and Matteo Salvini's Lega party leader is weakened ^[6]. However, the sources do not provide quantifiable probabilities of defection or a direct link to CDS movements. Overall, while CDS offer an indication of perceived sovereign credit risk, they do not directly assess specific coalition stability issues, though current financial market indicators generally point to reduced perceived sovereign risk for both nations in the immediate term ^[5].

Based on current prediction market data, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces a substantially higher quantifiable risk of early removal from office before his scheduled July 4 election departure. Prediction markets currently indicate a 27% probability that he will face a Conservative Vote of No Confidence before the next general election ^[1]. Related betting odds further suggest he is odds-on to be replaced as Tory leader this year ^[3].

Conversely, US prediction market data suggests President Joe Biden faces a considerably lower quantifiable risk of premature departure before his scheduled January 20 exit. This is evidenced by a 4% probability of him being removed from office via the 25th Amendment before the 2024 election ^[2]. Therefore, considering these specific mechanisms—a Vote of No Confidence for Sunak versus the 25th Amendment for Biden—Rishi Sunak's probability of facing a no-confidence vote (27%) is more than six times higher than the probability of Biden being removed via the 25th Amendment (4%) ^[1].

The Liberal-NDP confidence-and-supply agreement officially concluded September 4, 2024. The confidence-and-supply agreement between Canada's Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP) officially concluded on September 4, 2024 ^[1]. This termination marked the NDP's withdrawal of support, effectively ending the arrangement that had previously bolstered Justin Trudeau's minority government ^[2].

No specific legislative votes serve as triggers after the agreement's end. As a direct result of the agreement's conclusion in September 2024, there are no specific upcoming legislative votes that NDP leader Jagmeet Singh could designate as triggers for withdrawing support or collapsing the government under the framework of that particular agreement. The provided research confirms the dissolution of the agreement but does not identify any specific legislation, such as budget bills or pharmacare, as the direct cause for its conclusion ^[1].