EU has a new member before 2030?

France and Germany advocate fundamental EU reforms for new accessions. A joint paper outlines several mandatory internal EU reforms that must be met before approving a final accession treaty for new members ^[1]. Key among these is the extension of qualified majority voting (QMV) to policy areas such as foreign policy and taxation, aimed at preventing paralysis within an enlarged Union ^[1]. Additionally, they propose significant changes to the European Commission's composition and functioning, alongside substantial adaptations to the EU budget and cohesion funds ^[1]. To facilitate this, a 'staged approach' to accession is recommended, enabling aspiring members to integrate gradually into specific EU policies prior to achieving full membership ^[1].

Both nations' leaders emphasize reform must precede enlargement. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz specifically champions linking EU enlargement to internal reforms, advocating for the abolition of national vetoes and the expansion of QMV in foreign and tax policy ^[2]. French President Emmanuel Macron supports a 'political union first' approach, stressing that deeper institutional reform is essential to precede enlargement to ensure the Union's effectiveness, even suggesting the possibility of a multi-speed Europe ^[3]. The shared position between France and Germany underscores their belief that current EU governance structures require profound changes to effectively manage future expansion ^[1].

Montenegro is demonstrably closest to completing 'Fundamentals' chapters among candidates. This Western Balkan state has opened all 33 negotiation chapters, which include the crucial 'Fundamentals' cluster, encompassing Chapter 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and Chapter 24 (Justice, Freedom, and Security) ^[2]. While these specific chapters are open, they have not yet been provisionally closed ^[2]. In contrast, Ukraine and Moldova, having received candidate status in June 2022, are at earlier stages, currently focusing on reforms and screening processes, and have not yet opened or closed any negotiation chapters ^[4].

Montenegro has provisionally closed 14 chapters over its negotiation period. The country officially commenced its accession negotiations with the European Union in June 2012 ^[2]. As of March 2026, Montenegro has provisionally closed a total of 14 out of its 33 negotiating chapters ^[3]. Over the approximate period of 13.75 years since the start of negotiations, Montenegro's historical average chapter closure rate has been approximately 1.02 chapters per year.

Three EU member states would likely trigger a binding accession referendum. France has a direct constitutional requirement under Article 88-5 of its Constitution, mandating a referendum for any state's accession to the European Union ^[1]. Ireland demonstrates a strong historical precedent, having consistently put major EU treaties involving significant transfers of sovereignty or constitutional amendments to a national vote ^[3]. Similarly, Denmark, while not always constitutionally obliged for every treaty, possesses a robust political tradition and historical pattern of holding national referendums on significant EU treaties and matters impacting sovereignty, which makes a referendum on an accession treaty highly probable ^[3].

Public polling in these states shows varied support for further EU enlargement. A Eurobarometer report from May-June 2025 indicates that in France, 44% of citizens support further EU enlargement, while 53% are opposed ^[4]. Conversely, Ireland shows strong support, with 72% of citizens in favor and 21% opposed ^[4]. Public opinion in Denmark is more divided, with 46% of citizens supporting further enlargement and 48% opposing it ^[4]. While the overall EU sentiment reports 56% of citizens generally support enlargement, these national sentiments in states with potential referendum requirements highlight significant differences ^[5].

Montenegro provisionally closed all EU accession chapters, meeting interim benchmarks. As of April 2026, Montenegro has provisionally closed all 35 negotiating chapters in its EU accession process ^[1]. This includes Chapters 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) and 24 (Justice, Freedom, and Security), which are considered central to the rule of law and fundamental rights ^[3]. The "interim benchmarks" specifically required for the provisional closure of these chapters have been successfully met ^[2]. However, Montenegro must now meet "final closing benchmarks" for all chapters to definitively conclude negotiations ^[4]. These final requirements necessitate significant and irreversible reforms, especially in strengthening the rule of law, the judiciary, the fight against corruption and organized crime, and ensuring media freedom ^[5].

Montenegro is a frontrunner, poised for EU accession by 2026. A credible "regatta principle" scenario could fast-track Montenegro's accession ahead of other candidates, as it is explicitly recognized as the frontrunner among Western Balkan candidates due to its sustained progress ^[5]. The European Union has reiterated its commitment to the "regatta principle," which emphasizes that the pace of accession is determined by an individual candidate's own merits and concrete reform achievements ^[5]. With all 35 chapters provisionally closed, Montenegro's significant advancement positions it uniquely ^[1]. The drafting of Montenegro's EU Accession Treaty has already commenced, signaling a tangible step towards membership ^[1]. This progress aligns with the ambition for Montenegro to be ready for accession by the end of 2026, driven by its individual performance within the enlargement process ^[3].

EU accession requires treaty ratification after negotiations conclude. The European Union accession process concludes with the formal signing of an Accession Treaty once negotiations are complete ^[2]. This treaty subsequently requires ratification by the candidate country and all 27 existing EU Member States, each adhering to their specific constitutional requirements ^[2]. Historically, the post-negotiation phase, encompassing treaty drafting, translation, and the entire ratification process, typically spans a period of 18 to 24 months. For instance, the Treaty of Accession for Croatia took approximately 19.5 months to enter into force following its signing ^[1], while for Bulgaria and Romania, this phase extended to about 20.5 months ^[3].

June 30, 2028, is the latest plausible negotiation closure. To facilitate a new member country's entry into the European Union before the end of 2029, accession negotiations must formally conclude by this date. This specific deadline is calculated based on the minimum 18-month period required for treaty drafting, translation, signing, and the comprehensive ratification procedures by both the candidate country and all current member states. Any conclusion of negotiations later than June 30, 2028, would likely result in the ratification processes extending beyond the target year-end 2029 deadline.