Short Answer

Clear+ membership is not expected to exceed 8.7 million in Q1 2027. This level would require sequential member additions above Q3's pace amid significant deceleration since Q1 2026 and persistent churn concerns from March 2026 renewals, priced at 0.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Q1 2027 member count below 8.7M appears likely due to decelerated sequential growth.
  • Strong churn risks from March 2026 surge renewals constrain Q1 2027 additions.
  • Member count above 8.9M is improbable given observed growth deceleration and churn.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 8.7 million 0.0% 0.1% Achieving 8.7M requires moderate growth above Q3's pace amid deceleration and churn risks.
Above 8.9 million 0.0% 0.1% Reaching 8.9M needs over 400K new members, improbable due to decelerating growth and strong churn risks.
Above 9.1 million 0.0% 0.0% Attaining 9.1M implies an unlikely 600K+ member surge, contrary to declining growth and renewal headwinds.
Above 9.3 million 0.0% 0.0% This level implies an extremely unlikely membership surge, contrary to decelerating growth and churn risks.
Above 9.5 million 0.0% 0.0% This level implies an extremely unlikely membership surge, contrary to decelerating growth and churn risks.

Current Context

Clear+ active member growth decelerated, with the market expecting Q1 2027 below 8.7M. Active CLEAR+ members grew from 7.616M in Q4 2025 to 8.474M in Q3 2026, as of September 30, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Year-over-year growth accelerated from 13.0% in Q1 2026 to 14.5% in Q3 2026, but sequential growth slowed from 7.2% in Q1 2026 to 1.7% in Q3 2026 [1][3][4][5]. The Kalshi prediction market for Q1 2027 active members shows probabilities below 1% for thresholds above 8.7M, suggesting market expectations for active members below 8.7 million [6]. A significant investor debate, noted by CapRelay, questions whether the March 2026 DHS government shutdown-induced sign-up surge was a one-time pull-forward, potentially leading to churn in FY27Q1 as annual renewals come due under normalized airport wait times [5]. The Kalshi market for Q3 2026 active members closed accurately, with reported figures of 8.474M resolving above 8.4M and 8.45M, consistent with pre-earnings probabilities [7][1].
Clear Secure beat Q3 estimates, increased prices, and expanded enterprise offerings. CLEAR Secure reported Q3 2026 results on November 4, 2026, exceeding consensus expectations [1][8]. Revenue reached $292.9M, a 27.8% year-over-year increase, surpassing the $286.7M consensus, and EPS was $0.52, beating the $0.48 consensus [1][8]. Adjusted EBITDA was $103.9M, representing a 35.5% margin and a 490bps year-over-year increase [1][8]. Q4 guidance projects revenue between $299M and $302M [1]. Free cash flow guidance for FY2026 was raised to at least $490M, despite Q3 2026 free cash flow being negative $103.8M due to a ~$315M partnership liability settlement [8][9]. Quarterly payments on this liability are expected to resume in Q1 2027 [8][9]. Analysts project Q1 2027 EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $297.61M [10]. The standard membership price increased by $10 to $219 effective July 1, 2026; management indicated healthy early retention [11]. Operational efficiency improved as direct salaries and benefits decreased to 17.3% of revenue, aligning with eGates covering over 70% of the airport network across 53 airports [4]. CLEAR1 enterprise platform bookings nearly tripled year-over-year in Q3 2026, driven by an expanded CMS partnership, a VA pilot, and nine new health-system partners, with its pipeline growing over 50% quarter-over-quarter [8][12][4].
Sources (12)
  1. 1CLEAR Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsprnewswire.com
  2. 2Clear Secure delivers strong Q2 2026 profit growth | YOU Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  3. 3CLEAR Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results – 1045 Capital Rocklifestyle.capitalcityrock.com
  4. 4Clear Secure (YOU) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5CLEAR - Questions for Management - CapRelaycaprelay.com
  6. 6Clear+ members next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  7. 7Clear+ members in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  8. 8CLEAR Secure (NYSE:YOU) Posts Quarterly Earnings...marketbeat.com
  9. 9Clear Secure (YOU) Stock News & Updates | StockTitanstocktitan.net
  10. 10YOU Forecast, Price Target & Analyst Ratings | CLEAR SECURE INC -CLASS A (NYSE:YOU) | ChartMill.comchartmill.com
  11. 11CLEAR Heads Into Q3 With Margins Proven And A 29% Stock Slide To Explainfinviz.com
  12. 12Clear Secure's Membership Machine Keeps Humming but Profit Per Member Is Already Shrinkingbarchart.com

2. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the number of Clear+ members next quarter is above 8.7 million. It resolves NO if the number of Clear+ members next quarter is 8.7 million or less. The market ends on May 5, 6:00 AM EDT, and trading will commence once the market officially opens.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 8.7 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 8.9 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 9.1 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 9.3 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 9.5 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 9.8 million $0.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets suggest Active Clear+ members are likely to be below 8.7 million in Q1 2027, with all higher thresholds priced at less than 1% Yes [1]. This conservative outlook is driven by recently decelerated sequential growth from 8.5 million members in Q3 2026, and concerns from analysts and investors that a Q1 2026 surge in sign-ups, linked to a March 2026 government shutdown, could lead to elevated churn entering 2027 [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Clear+ members next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  2. 2CLEAR Secure (NYSE:YOU) Announces Quarterly Earnings Results - Zolmaxzolmax.com

3. How will the Q1 2027 renewal cycle for members who signed up during the March 2026 DHS shutdown surge impact CLEAR+'s total active member count?

App Downloads Since Early March289,000 (more than triple prior year) [1][2]
Historical Annual ChurnApproximately 13-19% annually [3][4][5]
Q4 2024 Net Member Retention81.4% [4][6][5]
The Q1 2027 renewal cycle for members who signed up during the March 2026 DHS shutdown surge is a critical factor for the total active member count. Analysts are questioning whether this specific cohort will maintain membership or contribute to elevated churn [7][8]. The shutdown itself led to a significant surge in sign-ups, with app downloads reaching 289,000 since early March, representing more than triple the prior year's figures [1][2]. The core investor concern is whether this group, acquired during a three-week shutdown that caused strained TSA lines, will churn when their annual renewals come due in FY27Q1 under normalized airport wait times, potentially indicating a one-time pull-forward of membership [7]. This sentiment is echoed by DA Davidson, who warned that elevated active member churn could impact the company's growth entering 2027 [8].
Conversely, management expresses confidence, though historical churn and price increases pose risks. CFO Jennifer Hsu conveyed confidence during the Q1 2026 earnings call regarding the company's ability to retain these shutdown-era members for the long term, citing a clear value proposition at the time of their enrollment [9][10][11]. However, the Q1 2027 renewal cycle will ultimately test if this shutdown-driven acquisition translates into durable membership or if these members revert to historical annual churn rates, typically around 13-19% [3][4][5]. The recent increase in the standard pricing to $219, effective July 1, 2026, is also identified as an additional churn risk for this cohort upon renewal [12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Clear Secure: The One Winner From the Long TSA Wait Times at Airports - WSJwsj.com
  2. 2Travelers flock to Clear security app to bypass TSA lines amid US airport chaos | US news | The Guardiantheguardian.com
  3. 3Clear+ members in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4Clear Secure (YOU) Business Metrics & Revenue Breakdownstockanalysis.com
  5. 5clear_shareholderletterxsec.gov
  6. 6Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) Business & Moat Analysis (2026)koalagains.com
  7. 7CLEAR - Questions for Management - CapRelaycaprelay.com
  8. 8Clear Secure downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  9. 9CLEAR (YOU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  10. 10Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - Equiblesequibles.com
  11. 11Earnings call transcript: Clear Secure Q1 2026 earnings beat expectations By Investing.comuk.investing.com
  12. 12Telsey raises Clear Secure stock price target on strong membership trends By Investing.cominvesting.com

4. What does CLEAR+'s sequential membership growth deceleration from Q1 2026 to Q3 2026 imply for the Q1 2027 forecast?

Q1 2027 Forecast Active MembersBelow 8.7 million [1]
Q1 2027 Sequential Member Additions+100K to +250K [2][3]
FY2025 Annual Gross Dollar Retention86.4% [4][5]
CLEAR+'s sequential growth deceleration impacts its Q1 2027 forecast significantly. Sequential membership growth for CLEAR+ decelerated from Q1 2026 to Q3 2026, contributing to a cautious outlook for the Q1 2027 forecast, where market consensus anticipates active CLEAR+ members will be below 8.7 million [1]. This deceleration, alongside typical seasonal dynamics, suggests that Q1 2027 will experience continued modest sequential member additions, likely in the range of +100K to +250K [2][3]. Prediction markets previously overestimated Q3 2026 sequential growth, indicating that this pattern of overestimation might extend to Q1 2027 forecasts [6][7].
A previous surge and churn risk explain the deceleration. The slowdown follows a Q1 2026 surge in active CLEAR+ members, primarily driven by a 3-week DHS government shutdown in March 2026 that strained standard TSA lines [8][9]. Investors are debating whether these surge sign-ups represent a one-time pull-forward, potentially leading to churn when annual renewals come due in Q1 2027 under normalized airport wait times [8][9]. The churn risk is considerable, evidenced by an annual CLEAR+ gross dollar retention of 86.4% in FY2025, which was a decrease from 88.5% in FY2024. This retention rate falls below the 90-95% sub-industry benchmark for Data, Security & Risk platform companies, pointing to meaningful churn risk for the Q1 2027 renewal cohort [4][5][10].
Year-over-year growth stabilizes, and management explores new pricing models. Despite the sequential deceleration, year-over-year Active CLEAR+ member growth has stabilized in the mid-teens [7][3][11][12][13]. This stabilization is attributed to the base effect from the 2025 shutdown-free quarters, which is offsetting the sequential slowdown. Management is also transitioning to testing personalized, tiered, and a la carte pricing models [14][11][9]. These initiatives include a July 2026 price increase to $219 (from $189) and the introduction of CLEAR Concierge, starting at $99, which may support member retention through the Q1 2027 renewal period [14][11][9].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Clear+ members next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  2. 2Clear Secure (YOU) Q2 2025 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3CLEAR - Earnings Review - CapRelaycaprelay.com
  4. 4Documentsec.gov
  5. 5Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) Business & Moat Analysis (2026)koalagains.com
  6. 6Clear Secure (YOU) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
  7. 7CLEAR Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results:: Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)ir.clearme.com
  8. 8CLEAR - Questions for Management - CapRelaycaprelay.com
  9. 9Clear Secure (YOU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  10. 10Clear Secure (YOU) Business Metrics & Revenue Breakdownstockanalysis.com
  11. 11https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/clear-secure-nyseyou-posts-quarterly-earnings-results-beats-estimates-by-009-eps-2026-08-05/marketbeat.com
  12. 12CLEAR Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results:: Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)ir.clearme.com
  13. 13Documentir.clearme.com
  14. 14Clear Secure, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com

5. How does CLEAR Secure's Q4 2026 guidance compare against Wall Street analyst consensus forecasts for full-year 2027 revenue and bookings?

Full-year 2026 Revenue GuidanceApproximately $1.11B-$1.14B [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Full-year 2027 Revenue Forecast (Wall Street)Between $1.21B and $1.27B, representing 14.5%-17.2% year-over-year growth [8][9][10][11]
Expected Q1 2027 Active CLEAR+ Members8.6M-8.7M [12][13][14][15]
CLEAR Secure's 2026 guidance reveals strong financial projections. For full-year 2026, the company projects revenue between approximately $1.11 billion and $1.14 billion, with total bookings estimated at $1.23 billion to $1.27 billion [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Additionally, CLEAR Secure increased its full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance to at least $490 million, indicating a minimum of 42.8% year-over-year growth [1][16][2]. Looking at the fourth quarter of 2026, the company's revenue guidance of $299 million to $302 million exceeds Wall Street's consensus estimate of $293.62 million by about 1.8% at the midpoint [1][17][16][2].
Analysts anticipate continued revenue growth and strong member expansion. Wall Street's consensus forecasts for full-year 2027 revenue range from $1.21 billion to $1.27 billion, reflecting expected year-over-year growth of 14.5% to 17.2% from the projected 2026 revenue [8][9][10][11]. As of the third quarter of 2026, CLEAR Secure reported 8.474 million active CLEAR+ members, marking a 14.5% year-over-year increase, and 46.741 million total CLEAR members, a 30.7% year-over-year increase [2]. Prediction markets for 'Clear+ members in Q1 2027' suggest an active member count in the range of 8.6 million to 8.7 million [12][13][14][15].
Sources (17)
  1. 1CLEAR Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsir.clearme.com
  2. 2Clear Secure (YOU) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlookquartr.com
  3. 3Earnings Whispers | Clear Secure Beat Consensus Estimates, Guides Above Estimates - Earningsbeta.earningswhispers.com
  4. 4CLEAR Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  5. 5CLEAR Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsprnewswire.com
  6. 6CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results – 1045 Capital Rocklifestyle.capitalcityrock.com
  7. 7CLEAR Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | lifestyle.inspiredn.comlifestyle.inspiredn.com
  8. 8Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) Analyst Estimates - Revenue & EPSbusinessquant.com
  9. 9Clear Secure (YOU) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
  10. 10YOU Stock — Clear Secure, Inc.: Analyst Estimates - Equiblesequibles.com
  11. 11Clear Secure (YOU)trefis.com
  12. 12Clear+ members next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  13. 13Clear active clear+ members this year Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  14. 14Clear active clear+ members in 2026 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  15. 15Clear+ members in Q3: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
  16. 16Clear Secure beats Q3 2026 estimates, shares rise...investing.com
  17. 17Clear Secure sees Q4 revenue $299M-$302M, consensus $293.62M - TipRanks.comtipranks.com

6. When will CLEAR Secure release its Q4 2026 earnings report, and what specific metrics will provide the final data points for projecting Q1 2027 membership?

Q4 2026 Earnings Report ReleaseFebruary 24, 2027, at 6:00 a.m. ET [1][2][3]
Prediction Market Resolution MetricActive CLEAR+ Members as of December 31, 2026 [4][5][6][7]
Q4 2026 Projected Revenue Guidance$299 million to $302 million [8][9]
CLEAR Secure is scheduled to release its Q4 2026 and full-year 2026 earnings report on February 24, 2027, at approximately 6:00 a.m. ET. The company will hold an accompanying earnings call at 8:00 a.m. ET [1][2][3].
Key membership data and financial projections will be disclosed. The critical data point for projecting Q1 2027 membership, particularly for prediction markets such as 'Clear+ members in Q1 2027', is the Active CLEAR+ Members figure as of December 31, 2026 [4][5][6][7]. This metric is expected to be released within the upcoming Q4 2026 earnings report [4][5][6][7]. Beyond membership figures, CLEAR Secure's Q4 2026 guidance includes projected revenue of $299 million to $302 million and total bookings between $335 million and $340 million [8][9]. Additionally, the full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance was raised to at least $490 million [8][10][9].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Clear Secure [YOU] Surges 24% on Q3 Beat and Raised...koalagains.com
  2. 2YOU | Clear Secure Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatchmarketwatch.com
  3. 3Clear Secure (YOU) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financialspublic.com
  4. 4Clear+ members next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  5. 5Clear active clear+ members this year Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  6. 6Clear active clear+ members in 2026 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  7. 7Clear+ members in Q3: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
  8. 8Clear Secure (YOU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  9. 9Clear Secure forecasts Q4 revenue of $299M-$302M while...seekingalpha.com
  10. 10Clear Secure raises 2026 free cash flow floor to $490Mstocktitan.net

7. What has been the observable impact of the July 2026 price increase on CLEAR+'s member retention and new acquisition rates in Q3 and Q4 2026?

Price Increase$10 (from $209 to $219 effective July 1, 2026) [1]
Retention Post-Increase (Q2 2026)No impact to retention [1][2]
Active CLEAR+ Members (Q3 2026)8.5 million [3][4]
CLEAR's July 2026 price increase preceded Q3 member growth. Effective July 1, 2026, CLEAR increased its standard pricing by $10, moving from $209 to $219 [1]. Following this adjustment, management stated in the Q2 2026 earnings call that early retention rates remained healthy, observing no impact on retention [1][2]. In Q3 2026, Active CLEAR+ Members grew to 8.5 million, marking a sequential increase of 145 thousand members [3][5][6][7][4].
Q3 2026 saw significant member growth and strong retention rates. The CFO affirmed that both member retention and net new acquisition were strong during this period, describing retention rates as "incredibly strong at the moment" [3][7]. This positive trend occurred in the quarter immediately following the price adjustment.
Q4 2026 results are currently unavailable for assessment. As of November 5, 2026, Q4 2026 results are not yet publicly available, with earnings expected in early February 2027 [5][8][9]. Therefore, the observable impact of the July 2026 price increase on member retention and new acquisition rates for Q4 2026 cannot be assessed at this time.
Sources (9)
  1. 1Clear Secure (YOU) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/clear-secure-nyseyou-posts-quarterly-earnings-results-beats-estimates-by-009-eps-2026-08-05/marketbeat.com
  3. 3Clear Secure Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptbenzinga.com
  4. 4Clear Secure (YOU) Q3 2026 Summary | Quartrquartr.com
  5. 5CLEAR Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results:: Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)ir.clearme.com
  6. 6CLEAR - Earnings Review - CapRelaycaprelay.com
  7. 7YOU Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcriptstranscripts.platformaeronaut.com
  8. 8CLEAR Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results:: Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)ir.clearme.com
  9. 9Clear Secure Inc. Class A - YOU Stock Price Quote & News - M1pages.m1.com

8. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The retention of CLEAR+ members who signed up during the March 2026 DHS government shutdown is a key focus for Q1 2027. Active CLEAR+ members increased to 8.167M in Q1 2026, a 7.2% sequential rise, partly due to the three-week shutdown that strained TSA lines [1][2][3][4][5]. The primary investor debate centers on whether these sign-ups represent a one-time pull-forward, with potential for elevated churn when annual renewals come due in FY27Q1 under normalized airport wait times [1]. Management faces questions regarding post-shutdown cohort retention, engagement, and trial-to-paid conversion [1].
Competition from government-backed identity solutions presents another catalyst. TSA Touchless ID has expanded to 65 airports, directly challenging CLEAR's core value proposition [6][7][8]. This led DA Davidson to downgrade YOU to Neutral, citing concerns that pressure in TSA volumes or stronger TSA Touchless ID traction could elevate active CLEAR+ member churn entering 2027 [6]. Furthermore, eGates are operational across 53 airports as of November 4, 2026, with network-wide coverage expected by the end of 2026, covering over 70% of the network [2][3][9][7][8]. Spruce Point Capital Management's short thesis published in April 2025 also noted the potential for TSA Digital ID and eGate testing with IDEMIA to render CLEAR's service obsolete [10].
Other factors include the Q4 2026 bookings guidance of $335-340M, which represents 17.6% YoY growth at the midpoint, decelerating from Q3's 24.4% [11][3][12]. The standard CLEAR+ annual price increased from $209 to $219 effective July 1, 2026, though management reported early retention aligned with historical trends [13][9][7][8]. Positively, CLEAR1 (B2B identity) bookings nearly tripled their year-ago level in Q3 2026, driven by an expanded CMS partnership, a VA pilot, and new health-system partners [11][3][7][8]. Conversely, quarterly payments on the Amex partnership liability, totaling ~$315M, are expected to resume in Q1 2027, which will impact cash flow [11][3][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 02, 2027
  • Closes: September 02, 2027
Sources (13)
  1. 1CLEAR - Questions for Management - CapRelaycaprelay.com
  2. 2CLEAR Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsprnewswire.com
  3. 3Clear Secure Q3 earnings: revenue up 27.8% to $292.9M | YOU Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  4. 4Clear Secure (YOU) jumps after strong earnings beat and upbeat outlookfinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Documentir.clearme.com
  6. 6Clear Secure downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  7. 7Clear Secure's Identity Infrastructure Flywheel: Margin Expansion Meets B2B Breakout (NYSE:YOU) - YOU Analysis - EveryTickereveryticker.com
  8. 8Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) Stock Research Report | Flashflash.stocksentinel.ai
  9. 9https://finance.biggo.com/quote/YOU/earnings-call/US_YOU_2026-08-05finance.biggo.com
  10. 10Clear Secure, Inc. - Spruce Point Management - The Short Reportshortreport.fyi
  11. 11CLEAR Secure (NYSE:YOU) Posts Quarterly Earnings...marketbeat.com
  12. 12Clear Secure (YOU) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financialspublic.com
  13. 13CLEAR Heads Into Q3 With Margins Proven And A 29% Stock Slide To Explainfinviz.com