Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Charles Myers to visit Venezuela before May 1, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has exhibited a sideways trend, trading within a very narrow and low-probability range between 0.6% and 2.8%. The price for a "YES" outcome began at 1.1% and has since drifted down to its current level of 0.6%, which also represents the all-time low for the contract. The overall price action has been subdued, with no significant sustained movements, indicating a stable market outlook. The most notable recent price change was a drop from 1.0% to the current 0.6% support level around April 28.
The provided context does not offer a specific reason for any price movements, including the recent decline. Volume analysis shows that trading activity has generally been low, with only 206 contracts traded in total, suggesting limited market participation. However, a spike in volume of 22 contracts coincided with the price drop to 0.6%, which implies that this downward move was driven by a moment of relatively higher conviction among traders. The chart suggests that market sentiment has been consistently pessimistic about a "YES" outcome, never pricing the probability above 2.8%. The current price at the historical low of 0.6% indicates that this skepticism is currently at its peak.
  • Trump's Latin America advisors internally debate Venezuela policy options.
  • Oil majors actively pursue US licenses for Venezuelan operations.
  • Mediators have not detailed specific guarantor agreements for Machado's travel.
  • EU policy on Venezuela notably diverges from the US strategy.
  • International monitors assess a high risk of post-election crisis in Venezuela.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For Dinorah Figuera, the market resolves to "Yes" if she physically travels to and is present within Venezuela's geographic boundaries before May 1, 2026, with the visit commencing after the market opened on January 3, 2026. Conversely, it resolves to "No" if such a visit is not verifiably reported by the deadline. Physical presence is strictly defined, excluding layovers, virtual appearances, or presence solely within international waters or embassy grounds, and must be corroborated by at least one of the specified news or official sources. The market closes early if the visit occurs, otherwise, it closes on May 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT.

Market Discussion

The market shows a strong consensus that Dinorah Figuera (2.1%), María Corina Machado (1.1%), and Javier Milei (1%) are highly unlikely to visit Venezuela before May 2026, as indicated by their very low "Yes" probabilities. There are no explicit textual arguments provided in the discussion content for or against these listed individuals visiting. However, the "Activity" feed reveals some traders speculating about other figures not currently listed, such as Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, and Charles Myers, suggesting a broader interest in who might visit Venezuela.

4. What Are the Debates on Trump's Venezuela Policy Options?

Trump Advisory DivideInternal battle exists on Venezuela policy [1]
Direct Engagement ViewPolicy paper explores engagement with Maduro regime [2]
Pressure & Opposition SupportHeritage Foundation and Project 2025 advocate pressure on Maduro [3]
An internal debate exists within Donald Trump's Latin America advisory circles regarding optimal Venezuela policy. This ongoing "internal battle" centers on whether to pursue direct engagement with the Maduro regime or exclusively support the opposition Unitary Platform (PUD) [1]. While advisors are engaged in informal policy deliberations, specific details of any "back-channel communications" remain undisclosed to the public [1].
One perspective favors direct engagement to advance U.S. interests. This approach is highlighted in policy papers such as "Strategic Engagement in Venezuela: Advancing U.S. Interests Under an America-First Agenda v5," which explores the potential benefits of direct interaction with the Maduro regime [2]. This strategy aligns with a pragmatic, transactional foreign policy aimed at achieving specific U.S. objectives through direct talks or conditional interactions with Venezuela's current authorities [2].
Conversely, others advocate for sustained pressure and exclusive opposition support. Organizations linked to the Trump campaign, including the Heritage Foundation and those involved with Project 2025, generally champion this strategy. The Heritage Foundation's "Ten Steps for U.S. Policy on Venezuela" typically emphasizes sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and robust backing for democratic forces, often implicitly or explicitly arguing against direct engagement that could legitimize the Maduro regime [4]. Project 2025's "roadmap" for Trump's policy also calls for "re-hemisphering" in Latin America, signifying a firm stance against adversarial regimes like Maduro's [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1How a Battle Inside Trump's Team Could Decide Venezuela's Fate | Inkstickinkstickmedia.com
  2. 2Strategic Engagement in Venezuela: Advancing U.S. Interests Under an America-First Agenda v5gordoninstitute.fiu.edu
  3. 3From Venezuela to immigration, Project 2025 provided Trump's roadmapbbc.com
  4. 4Ten Steps for U.S. Policy on Venezuela | The Heritage Foundationheritage.org

5. Are Oil Majors Securing Venezuela Sanctions Relief Licenses?

Chevron License StatusIn talks for expanded Venezuela oil license; U.S. "moving fast" [1]
Other Companies ApplyingRepsol, ENI, Maurel & Prom are applying for U.S. licenses [2]
Sanctions Relief BasisLinked to electoral agreement between Venezuelan government and opposition [3]
Oil majors actively pursue US licenses for Venezuelan operations. Chevron is actively engaged in discussions with the U.S. government, seeking an expanded license for its operations in Venezuela, with the U.S. reportedly moving quickly to facilitate this [1]. Chevron was anticipated to receive an expanded license, which would enable broader operations in Venezuela [4]. Concurrently, other major European oil companies, including Repsol, ENI, and Maurel & Prom, are also pursuing U.S. licenses to permit the export of Venezuelan oil [2].
Sanctions relief for Venezuela stems from a political agreement. Significant sanctions relief granted to Venezuela's oil and gas sector by the United States, notably through the issuance of General License 41 by OFAC, was a direct consequence of an electoral agreement. This agreement was reached between the Unitary Platform and representatives of Nicolás Maduro in Barbados [3]. This broadly links the easing of sanctions to political concessions within the country [3].
No direct quid-pro-quo terms are specified for individual licenses. The available information does not specify additional quid-pro-quo terms negotiated directly between OFAC and these individual oil majors for their specific licenses, beyond the framework set by the broader political agreement [3]. Furthermore, the provided sources do not indicate that a high-level visit is a prerequisite for the finalization of these particular sanctions relief licenses [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Exclusive: US moving fast to expand Chevron's Venezuela license, Energy Secretary Wright tells Reuters | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Exclusive: Repsol, ENI, Maurel & Prom applying for US licenses to export Venezuelan oil, sources say | Reutersreuters.com
  3. 3United States Issues Significant New Sanctions Relief for Venezuela’s Oil & Gas Sector | Winston & Strawnwinston.com
  4. 4Exclusive: Chevron expected to receive expanded Venezuela license from US this week, sources say | Reuterstoday.reuters.com

6. Are Norway, Colombia, or Brazil mediating Machado's travel guarantees?

Norway's Role in Venezuelan DialogueOngoing mediator, welcomed by Maduro government [1]
Colombia's Proposal for VenezuelaTransitional government proposed by President Petro [2]
Guarantor Agreements for MachadoCurrent operational status not detailed in sources [3]
Mediators have not detailed specific guarantor agreements for Machado. Third-party mediators, including Norway, Colombia, and Brazil, have not provided specific messaging or current operational status regarding a new round of negotiations focused on guarantor agreements that would allow for the safe international travel and return of opposition leader María Corina Machado. While Norway continues its role as a welcomed mediator in the Venezuelan Dialogue and Negotiation Process, its engagement is generally described as supporting a peaceful, negotiated solution to the Venezuelan political crisis [1]. Colombian President Gustavo Petro has proposed a transitional government for Venezuela, but the available sources do not provide specific details on Colombia's current operational status or messaging related to new negotiations for guarantor agreements concerning Machado's safe return [2]. Specific messaging from Brazil on these particular guarantor agreements is also not detailed in the available information.
Machado plans return, but specific guarantor negotiations are absent. María Corina Machado has expressed her intention to return to Venezuela and has been involved in discussions regarding a transition plan [3]. The United States has linked Venezuelan elections to reforms and Machado's return [4]. Machado supports a U.S. transition plan and rejects power-sharing with criminal networks [5]. However, these accounts do not specify active guarantor agreement negotiations involving third-party mediators to facilitate her safe international travel and return [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1The Venezuelan Negotiation Process - regjeringen.noregjeringen.no
  2. 2Petro proposes transitional government in Venezuela | Brazil 247en.brasil247.com
  3. 3Machado plans return to Venezuela despite warning | Miami Heraldmiamiherald.com
  4. 4U.S. ties Venezuela elections to reforms, Machado return | Miami Heraldmiamiherald.com
  5. 5Machado backs U.S. transition plan, rejects power-sharing with criminal networksmiamiherald.com

7. How Does EU Policy on Venezuela Differ from US Strategy?

EU Stance on US PlanRejected U.S.-backed plan for Venezuela, insisting on opposition leader Machado's inclusion [1].
French Presidential EngagementPresident Macron held talks with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado [2].
Venezuela's Diplomatic InterestExpressed interest in establishing a 'new agenda' with the EU and the UK [3].
Evidence indicates a notable divergence between EU and US policies on Venezuela. The European Union explicitly rejected a U.S.-backed transition plan, emphasizing the necessity of including opposition leader María Corina Machado [1]. This distinct approach saw the EU focusing on a democratic transition, while the U.S., under the Trump administration, was characterized by a pursuit of oil reserves [4]. Furthermore, the EU's High Representative issued a statement addressing the 'aftermath of the U.S. intervention' in Venezuela, underscoring an independent European position [5]. France, a prominent EU member, has also declared its role in resolving international political crises, including Venezuela, signaling an autonomous foreign policy stance [6].
High-level European engagement with Venezuelan opposition figures is clearly evident. For instance, French President Emmanuel Macron held talks with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado [2]. However, the provided research does not explicitly detail the frequency or seniority of undisclosed meetings between officials from France's or the UK's foreign ministries and their Venezuelan government counterparts. While the UK Foreign Secretary made a statement on Venezuela to the House [7] and the French Foreign Minister discussed Venezuela with G7 counterparts [8], these actions indicate high-level engagement with the issue and coordination among European powers, rather than direct bilateral meetings with Venezuelan government officials.
Sources (8)
  1. 1EU Rejects U.S.-Backed Plan for Venezuela Transition, Says Process Must Include Opposition Leader Machadolatintimes.com
  2. 2France’s Macron holds talks with Venezuelan opposition leader Machado |bbc.bm
  3. 3Venezuela eyes 'new agenda' with EU, UK | Newsbssnews.net
  4. 4EU bets on Venezuela's democratic transition as Trump goes after oil reserves | Euronewseuronews.com
  5. 5Venezuela: Statement by the High Representative on the aftermath of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela | EEASeeas.europa.eu
  6. 6Déclaration du Gouvernement sur le rôle de la France dans la prévention et la résolution des crises politiques internationales, notamment au Venezuela, suivie d’un débat en application de l’article 50-1 de la Constitution | France Diplomatiediplomatie.gouv.fr
  7. 7Foreign Secretary Statement to the House on Venezuelaglobalsecurity.org
  8. 8French foreign minister discusses Venezuela, Ukraine with G7 counterpartsaa.com.tr

8. What Do Observers Say About Venezuela's 2024 Election Credibility?

Carter Center Election Assessment"Lacked minimum conditions for a credible process" and "did not comply with international standards", democracy "thwarted" [1]
European Union Concerns"Deep concern regarding the integrity and transparency" and "deep concern about irregularities" [2]
Stratfor Intelligence Projection"Continued political instability" if Maduro clings to power illegitimately [3]
International monitors unanimously assess a high risk of post-election crisis. Following the July 28, 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, the Carter Center strongly condemned the process, stating it "lacked minimum conditions for a credible process" and "did not comply with international standards" [1]. Their assessment concluded that "democracy was thwarted in Venezuela" [4], pointing to a fundamental illegitimacy of the results. Similarly, the European Union, through its High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and European Parliament motions, conveyed "deep concern regarding the integrity and transparency of the presidential elections" and highlighted "deep concern about irregularities reported" [2]. These bodies consistently called for adherence to democratic principles and a peaceful, democratic resolution, signaling significant international rejection of the electoral outcome [5].
Intelligence firms reinforce concerns, projecting prolonged instability and mediation. Stratfor analyzed that "Maduro clinging to power" through illegitimate means will lead to "continued political instability" in Venezuela [3]. This perspective, complemented by analyses from other intelligence firms, indicates a deeply polarized political landscape and the potential for increased domestic unrest and international pressure as a direct consequence of the disputed election [6]. The collective assessment from these diverse sources, encompassing electoral integrity and geopolitical risk, paints a clear picture of a nation on the brink of prolonged political and social unrest due to the widespread perception of an unfree and unfair election. This critical situation, marked by international condemnation and domestic instability, significantly raises the probability of an urgent international mediation visit to de-escalate the crisis and foster dialogue, likely before the second quarter of 2025.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Carter Center Statement on Venezuela Election - The Carter Centercartercenter.org
  2. 2MOTION FOR A RESOLUTION on the situation in Venezuelaeuroparl.europa.eu
  3. 3What Maduro Clinging To Power Means for Venezuelaworldview.stratfor.com
  4. 4Center Finds Democracy Thwarted in Venezuela - The Carter Centercartercenter.org
  5. 5Venezuela: Statement by the High Representative on the publication of the interim report of UN Panel of Experts on presidential elections | EEASeeas.europa.eu
  6. 6Venezuela post-election scenario memo - 30 July 2024boz.substack.com

10. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series

Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXVISITVENEZUELA-26MAY01-CMYE: YES (Mar 25, 2026)