Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Byron Donalds to visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Based on the provided chart data, this market is characterized by very low volatility and a sideways trend. The price has been confined to a narrow 5-point range, trading between 28.0% and 33.0% since its inception. The market opened at 32.0% and currently stands at 33.0%, indicating a very slight upward drift but no significant momentum in either direction. Given the absence of any major price spikes or drops, and with no specific news context provided, the minor price fluctuations appear to be the result of minimal trading activity rather than a reaction to any external catalyst.
The trading volume for this market is exceptionally low, with a total of only 53 contracts traded across nine data points. This low liquidity suggests a lack of broad market interest or conviction regarding the outcome. The price seems to have established a support level near 28.0% and a resistance level at 33.0%, which is also the current price. The market sentiment appears to be stable and uncertain. While the price is currently at the top of its short-term range, the lack of significant volume suggests that this is not a high-conviction move. Overall, the chart indicates a market that is consolidating and awaiting a catalyst to establish a more definitive direction.
  • No public information on 2025 Trump-GOP leader communications was found.
  • Israel, Ukraine, Italy held preliminary 2025 meetings with Trump-aligned figures.
  • Ballard Partners reported $5.5M in Q2 2026 tech lobbying income.
  • Bezos, Zuckerberg, Huang made no Trump donations during 2025-2026.
  • King Charles III and Queen Camilla have a state visit scheduled for April 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
James Fishback 9.9% 4.0% The provided background research contains no information regarding James Fishback or his potential visit to Mar-a-Lago in 2026, offering no specific evidence to shift from the debiased market price.
Benjamin Netanyahu 24.0% 13.0% The provided research contains no information, specific facts, or data points regarding a potential visit by Benjamin Netanyahu to Mar-a-Lago in 2026, offering no basis to shift the debiased probability.
Ron DeSantis 75.0% 67.3% The background research explicitly states there is no information available regarding 2025 communications between Trump and DeSantis, which neither supports nor refutes the market's 67.3% probability for a 2026 Mar-a-Lago visit.
Giorgia Meloni 26.0% 14.5% There is no specific evidence provided in the research indicating Giorgia Meloni will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026, making the current debiased price a fair reflection of general plausibility based on her prominence and past interactions with Donald Trump versus the lack of any concrete plans.
Marjorie Taylor Greene 9.8% 4.0% While Marjorie Taylor Greene's strong public support for Donald Trump suggests a plausible visit to Mar-a-Lago, the provided web research explicitly states there is no available information regarding 2025 communications between Trump and Greene relevant to future interactions or potential visits.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution triggers if Jeff Bezos visits Mar-a-Lago between the market's issuance and January 1, 2027, with the visit reported by The New York Times, Politico, or other cited sources. If no such visit is reported by January 1, 2027, the market resolves to "No," closing early if the event occurs, or by the deadline otherwise. Trading is prohibited for employees of source agencies or individuals with material non-public information.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Ron DeSantis $0.76 $0.30 75%
Jeff Bezos $0.33 $0.72 33%
Mark Zuckerberg $0.32 $0.75 31%
Giorgia Meloni $0.31 $0.74 26%
Benjamin Netanyahu $0.24 $0.81 24%
Jensen Huang $0.27 $0.78 21%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy $0.26 $0.79 21%
Xi Jinping $0.20 $0.84 20%
Vladimir Putin $0.20 $0.85 15%
James Fishback $0.16 $0.89 10%
Marjorie Taylor Greene $0.10 $0.92 10%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 72 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score82Good
Trade quality20% of score33High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score72Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
77Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
39Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

11 contracts · worst first

Giorgia Meloni28
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Benjamin Netanyahu29
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy54
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Ron DeSantis58
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 44% vs realized 3%
Xi Jinping61
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 55% vs realized 3%
Jeff Bezos64
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 95% vs realized 3%
Jensen Huang—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Mark Zuckerberg—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Marjorie Taylor Greene—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Vladimir Putin—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

James Fishback—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
76Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

11 contracts · worst first

Jeff Bezos66
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

Ron DeSantis74
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Volodymyr Zelenskyy75
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Xi Jinping79
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Giorgia Meloni82
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Benjamin Netanyahu—
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Jensen Huang—
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Mark Zuckerberg—
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Marjorie Taylor Greene—
No trading in 6d

No trades in the last 6d — nothing to confirm

Vladimir Putin—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

James Fishback—
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

11 contracts · worst first

Jeff Bezos100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Giorgia Meloni100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Benjamin Netanyahu100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Jensen Huang100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Ron DeSantis100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Mark Zuckerberg100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Marjorie Taylor Greene100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Vladimir Putin100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Xi Jinping100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
James Fishback100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
33High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 42 (notional-weighted across 6 scored legs)

$100 order: 35.8c slippage (~170% of a 21.1c contract)

$1,000 order: 51.8c slippage (~245% of a 21.1c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Jeff Bezos64Market scoreLiquidity64Move quality66Rule clarity100
Why 64
Liquidity
64 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 95% vs realized 3%
Move quality
66 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Giorgia Meloni28Market scoreLiquidity28Move quality82Rule clarity100
Why 28
Liquidity
28 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
82 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Benjamin Netanyahu29Market scoreLiquidity29Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 29
Liquidity
29 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Jensen Huang–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Ron DeSantis58Market scoreLiquidity58Move quality74Rule clarity100
Why 58
Liquidity
58 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 44% vs realized 3%
Move quality
74 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Volodymyr Zelenskyy54Market scoreLiquidity54Move quality75Rule clarity100
Why 54
Liquidity
54 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
75 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Mark Zuckerberg–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Marjorie Taylor Greene–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 6d

No trades in the last 6d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Vladimir Putin–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Xi Jinping61Market scoreLiquidity61Move quality79Rule clarity100
Why 61
Liquidity
61 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 55% vs realized 3%
Move quality
79 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
James Fishback–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What 2025 Communications Existed Between Trump and Key GOP Figures?

2025 Trump-DeSantis CommunicationsNo information available on private or public statements for policy alignment or 2028 endorsements [1].
119th Congress Policy AlignmentNo specific facts or data points regarding policy discussions for the 119th Congress [1].
Potential 2028 EndorsementsNo details found concerning discussions about potential 2028 endorsements [1].
Research did not yield information on 2025 communications between Trump, DeSantis, Donalds, Greene. No available details were found concerning private communications or public statements between a potential Trump 2025 administration and the offices of Ron DeSantis, Byron Donalds, or Marjorie Taylor Greene. Specifically, the research provided no facts, data, or statistics pertaining to policy alignment for the 119th Congress or potential 2028 endorsements involving these figures.
Available sources did not address the requested policy alignment or political endorsements. An Axios article, dated November 27, 2025, detailed Ukraine peace talks but did not mention the requested U.S. political figures or domestic policy [1]. An archived FloridaPolitics.com article noted Donald Trump's support for Byron Donalds in a meeting with Florida lawmakers, yet it did not specify a 2025 date or provide details about policy alignment or 2028 endorsements involving DeSantis or Greene [2]. Furthermore, a prediction market titled "Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026?" was found but offers no factual reporting on 2025 communications or policy discussions [3]. Consequently, no specific details, facts, or data points can be presented to answer the question based strictly on the provided research.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Inside the White House meeting that launched the new Ukraine peace talksaxios.com
  2. 2Meeting with Florida lawmakers, Donald Trump reinforces support for Byron Donaldsfloridapolitics.com
  3. 3Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live

6. Which Foreign Leaders Met Trump-Aligned Figures in 2025?

Israel MeetingItamar Ben-Gvir met GOP leaders at Mar-a-Lago (April 2025) [1]
Ukraine MeetingVolodymyr Zelensky met Donald Trump in Florida (December 2025) [2]
Italy MeetingAntonio Tajani met Senator Marco Rubio (July 2025) [3]
Israel, Ukraine, and Italy engaged in preliminary meetings during 2025. Key Trump-aligned foreign policy figures held initial "scoping meetings" with foreign leaders from these three nations. Specifically, Israel's Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, met with Republican leaders at Mar-a-Lago in April 2025. During these discussions, Ben-Gvir advocated for a specific Gaza strategy and sought to strengthen U.S. ties, indicating early engagement with individuals close to former President Trump [1].
Ukraine and Italy conducted high-level discussions with Trump-aligned figures. Ukraine's leadership participated in significant preliminary discussions, with President Volodymyr Zelensky meeting Donald Trump in Florida in December 2025 [2]. Furthermore, in November 2025, the U.S. and Ukraine reportedly "made additional progress" on a Trump peace plan during discussions in Miami, which included figures such as Jared Kushner [4]. For Italy, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani met with Senator Marco Rubio in July 2025 [3]. While Senator Rubio is a U.S. government official, his role as a prominent Republican foreign policy figure suggests this meeting aligns with preliminary engagements involving potential influencers in a future Trump administration.
China and Russia did not hold similar preliminary meetings in 2025. No information from the provided sources indicates preliminary scoping meetings in 2025 involving high-level foreign policy officials from China or Russia with key Trump-aligned figures.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir Meets GOP Leaders at Mar-a-Lago, Advocates Gaza Strategy & Deepens U.S. Ties - The Jewish Voicetjvnews.com
  2. 2Takeaways from Trump’s meeting with Zelensky in Florida | CNN Politicsus.cnn.com
  3. 3Secretary Rubio’s Meeting with Italian Foreign Minister Tajanistate.gov
  4. 4U.S. and Ukraine "made additional progress" on Trump's peace plan, Rubio saysaxios.com

7. What Were Ballard Partners' Tech Lobbying Activities in Q2 2026?

Ballard Partners Total Income Q2 2026$5,500,000 [1]
Ballard Partners Tech Clients Q2 2026Meta Platforms Inc., Nvidia Corporation [1]
Key Lobbying Issues for Meta/Nvidia Q2 2026Artificial Intelligence Regulation, Antitrust, Government Procurement (Nvidia) [1]
Ballard Partners reported $5,500,000 in income during Q2 2026 from tech lobbying. According to federal lobbying disclosures, this firm, identified as D000037635 on OpenSecrets.org, listed Meta Platforms Inc. and Nvidia Corporation as active clients [2]. For Meta, lobbying efforts concentrated on "Artificial Intelligence Regulation" and "Antitrust" [1]. Nvidia engaged Ballard Partners on "Artificial Intelligence Regulation," "Antitrust," and "Government Procurement" [1]. Amazon was not listed as a client of Ballard Partners in the analyzed Q2 2026 disclosure forms [1].
Major technology firms increased lobbying for favorable dealmaking in 2026. A broader trend for 2026 indicates a notable increase in lobbying efforts by major technology companies, including Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia [3]. These firms strategically augmented their influence campaigns, concentrating on "Artificial Intelligence Regulation," "Antitrust policies," and "Government contracts" [3]. This increased activity is driven by expectations of a potentially more favorable landscape for "dealmaking" [3]. The available web research results did not contain specific lobbying disclosure data for Turnberry Solutions LLC concerning these companies or issues for the Q3 2025 - Q2 2026 timeframe [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1LD-1 Disclosure Formlda.senate.gov
  2. 2Search OpenSecrets.orgopensecrets.org
  3. 3Big Tech and AI look to bring on the dealmaking under Trump | Reutersreuters.com
  4. 4Turnberry Solutions LLC - Add Relationship - LittleSislittlesis.org

8. Did Bezos, Zuckerberg, or Huang Donate to Trump in 2025-2026?

Jeff Bezos Contributions/EventsNo evidence found for late 2025 or early 2026. Prior donations to inauguration fund and Mar-a-Lago visits occurred in late 2024 [1].
Mark Zuckerberg Contributions/EventsNo evidence found for late 2025 or early 2026. Prior donations to inauguration fund and Mar-a-Lago dining occurred in late 2024 [2].
Jensen Huang Contributions/EventsNot mentioned in any available sources in relation to Trump-affiliated entities or properties [3].
Research indicates no contributions for the specified timeframe. Web research did not identify Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, or Jensen Huang as having made significant personal or corporate contributions to Trump-affiliated Super PACs (such as Make America Great Again Inc. [3]) or as having paid for high-level memberships or events at Trump properties specifically in late 2025 or early 2026. The findings consistently show a lack of information for this requested timeframe.
Bezos and Zuckerberg had notable engagements before this period. While Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg are noted for past interactions, these instances occurred outside the specified late 2025 or early 2026 timeframe. Bezos, through Amazon, reportedly planned a significant donation to an inauguration fund [1]. Both Bezos and Zuckerberg personally donated to Trump's inauguration fund in December 2024 [2]. Mark Zuckerberg also dined with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in November 2024 [4]. Jeff Bezos likewise dined with Donald Trump and Elon Musk at Mar-a-Lago, likely around the same period [5]. These reported events consistently predate the specific late 2025 or early 2026 period in question.
Jensen Huang is not mentioned in relation to any engagements. Jensen Huang is not mentioned in any available sources in relation to contributions, visits, or engagement with Trump-affiliated entities. The overall research underscores that no information was found connecting any of these individuals to the specified financial contributions or high-level event participation during late 2025 or early 2026.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Amazon Plans Big Inauguration Donation as Jeff Bezos Warms to Trumpthedailybeast.com
  2. 2Bezos, Zuckerberg and Altman donate to Trump's inauguration fund: NPRnpr.org
  3. 3Make America Great Again Inc. 2024 cycle | FEC Itemizer - ProPublicaprojects.propublica.org
  4. 4Zuckerberg dines with Trump in Mar-a-Lago: NPRnpr.org
  5. 5Jeff Bezos Dines With Elon Musk and Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago - Business Insiderbusinessinsider.com

9. Will King Charles III Visit a Trump White House in 2026?

Scheduled EventState Visit by King Charles III and Queen Camilla [1]
Visit DateApril 2026 [1]
Visit LocationWhite House [1]
A State Visit by King Charles III is scheduled for April 2026. His Majesty King Charles III and Her Majesty Queen Camilla of the United Kingdom are officially slated for a State Visit to the White House in April 2026. Should Donald Trump win the 2024 election, President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump would host the royal couple. The primary objective of this visit is to engage in high-level diplomatic discussions and strengthen bilateral relations between the two nations [1].
This State Visit is the sole high-profile international event scheduled. The White House is the specifically designated venue for this State Visit [1]. Although Mar-a-Lago has hosted various meetings in the past [2], the available research does not specify any other high-profile policy summits or task forces officially scheduled for 2026 at Mar-a-Lago that would necessitate the presence of King Charles III and Queen Camilla. This particular State Visit represents the only explicitly scheduled high-profile international event identified in the materials that would require their attendance [1].
Sources (2)
  1. 1President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump to Welcome His Majesty King Charles the III of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and Her Majesty Queen Camilla for a State Visit – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  2. 2What have Trump’s Mar-a-Lago summits achieved? | The Weektheweek.com

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series

Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXMARALAGO-27-BDON: YES (Mar 26, 2026)