Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect 1 reconciliation bill to be passed in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market, which will resolve based on whether two or more reconciliation bills are passed in 2026, has experienced a distinct upward trend. The probability started at 4.9%, where it established an early support level. The most significant price movement was a sharp increase from this 4.9% floor to the current price of 12.0% around May 27. This spike appears to be a direct reaction to recent legislative developments. News reports from that time frame discuss the adoption of S.Con.Res. 33, a budget resolution specifically advancing a second potential reconciliation bill for 2026, focused on funding for DHS and CBP. This event seems to have caused traders to increase their assessment of the likelihood that more than one reconciliation bill will become law this year.
The total volume of 4,357 contracts indicates a moderately active market. The price jump to the 12.0% level, which now acts as a new resistance point and the market's all-time high, likely occurred on a day with significant trading volume, signaling conviction behind the upward move. Overall market sentiment has shifted from highly skeptical to cautiously optimistic. While a 12.0% probability is still low, it represents a more than twofold increase from the market's opening price. This reflects a growing belief among participants that the procedural steps being taken to advance a second reconciliation bill could successfully lead to its passage before the end of the year.
  • "Reconciliation 2.0" stalled in Senate due to intra-party opposition. Republican leadership withdrew "Reconciliation 2.0" from Senate consideration. A second reconciliation bill appears highly uncertain due to time constraints. S.Con.Res. 33 set a May 15, 2026, committee submission deadline. * The reconciliation process averages 148 days, limiting 2026 passage opportunities.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
0 12.0% 15.3% The primary reconciliation bill stalled in the Senate due to intra-party opposition, creating doubt for passage.
2 16.0% 13.2% The primary reconciliation bill's stalled status makes passing two or more reconciliation bills highly unlikely.
1 74.0% 71.5% The primary reconciliation bill advanced by the House, but its Senate stall creates uncertainty for passage.

Current Context

One reconciliation bill is the primary focus for 2026. Known as Reconciliation 2.0, this measure has been central to the budget resolution process, with S.Con.Res. 33 adopted in April 2026. Its purpose is to fund operations for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) [1][2]. For context, one reconciliation bill (Public Law 119-21) was enacted in 2025 [3][4].
A second reconciliation bill for 2026 faces uncertainty. House Republicans are actively discussing a potential third reconciliation bill, dubbed "Reconciliation 3.0," to pass before the end of 2026 [1]. However, its feasibility is considered doubtful due to various factors including time constraints, the upcoming midterm elections, and skepticism within the Senate [1][5]. As of May 2026, no reconciliation bills have been enacted for 2027, although discussions involve using a future reconciliation process to fund a portion of the fiscal year 2027 defense spending [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Perfidious Senate GOP Leaders Bait-and-Switch the Right on Reconciliation 3.0 - The Daily Signaldailysignal.com
  2. 2House clears budget resolution, advancing Reconciliation 2.0 to fund DHS and CBP | National Association of Countiesnaco.org
  3. 3Text - H.R.1 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): An act to provide for reconciliation pursuant to title II of H. Con. Res. 14. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  4. 4The House-Passed Reconciliation Bill (OBBBA): Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects | Penn Wharton Budget Modelbudgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
  5. 5Midterms Pose Reality Check for Third Go-Round on GOP Megabillnews.bloomberglaw.com
  6. 6New 2027 Defense Bill Pushes Back on Some Trump Priorities | The Fiscal Timesthefiscaltimes.com
  7. 7House Appropriations Committee Approves Fiscal Year 2027 Legislative Branch Appropriations Billvaladao.house.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 24, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 73.0% to 81.0%

Outcome: 1

What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market's price movement was the significant legislative progress of "Reconciliation 2.0," a single bill initiated by the House's adoption of the FY 2026 budget resolution on April 29, 2026 [1][2]. With Senate leadership aiming for final legislation on this specific bill by June 1, 2026 [1], market confidence likely solidified around the passage of this one reconciliation bill. This traditional news, indicating a high probability for one specific bill while other potential bills remained only "discussed" [3], appeared to LEAD the price move. No social media activity was identified in the research, rendering it irrelevant to this price movement.
Sources (3)
  1. 1naco.org
  2. 2courthousenews.com
  3. 3nlihc.org

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if exactly one reconciliation bill becomes law between November 25, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Conversely, it resolves to "No" if zero, two, or more reconciliation bills become law during this period. The outcome will be verified using the Library of Congress, with the market closing on January 2, 2027, and payout projected for the same day.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
1 $0.77 $0.27 74%
2 $0.17 $0.84 16%
0 $0.13 $0.91 12%

Market Discussion

As of May 27, 2026, Congress has not yet passed a reconciliation bill in 2026, though the House has passed an immigration enforcement measure ("Reconciliation 2.0"), and GOP leadership is planning for a potential "Reconciliation 3.0" [1][2]. Prediction markets as of late May 2026 indicate a high probability (76-86%) of the Senate passing at least one reconciliation bill by May 31, 2026, primarily focused on funding ICE and CBP [3][4][2]. However, skepticism exists regarding the feasibility of "Reconciliation 3.0" due to political obstacles such as upcoming midterms, thin GOP majorities, and internal party divisions [5][1][2].

Sources (5)
  1. 1House GOP still planning for third reconciliation bill - E&E News by POLITICOeenews.net
  2. 2Midterms Pose Reality Check for Third Go-Round on GOP Megabillnews.bgov.com
  3. 3Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...? Predict... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?lines.com
  5. 5Perfidious Senate GOP Leaders Bait-and-Switch the Right on Reconciliation 3.0 - The Daily Signaldailysignal.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score82Good
Trade quality20% of score47High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 20% of the price to slippage.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
78Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
58Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

2 contracts · worst first

258
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 25% vs realized 4%
1—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
47Mixed

Some moves lacked volume

2 contracts · worst first

247
Mixed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 3d

1—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

1100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
2100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
47High Risk

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 58 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 4.5c slippage (~6% of a 80.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 5.8c slippage (~7% of a 80.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 15.9c slippage (~20% of a 80.5c contract)

1–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
258Market scoreLiquidity58Move quality47Rule clarity100
Why 58
Liquidity
58 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 25% vs realized 4%
Move quality
47 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. What procedural deadlines in the 2026 congressional calendar could prevent a second reconciliation bill from passing before year-end?

FY2026 Budget Resolution AdoptionApril 2026 [1][2][3]
Committee Legislative Changes DueMay 15, 2026 [1][2][3]
Average Reconciliation Process Duration148 days [4][3]
Procedural constraints, more than specific deadlines, hinder a second reconciliation bill. The likelihood of a second reconciliation bill passing before year-end 2026 is primarily challenged by the limited time remaining in the legislative calendar and the inherently time-intensive nature of the budget reconciliation process [4][3]. For instance, Congress initiated the reconciliation process for Fiscal Year 2026 by adopting S.Con.Res. 33 in April 2026, which set a May 15, 2026, deadline for committees to submit legislative changes [1][2][3]. While using reconciliation multiple times within a single fiscal year is possible, each reconciliation bill necessitates its own authorizing budget resolution with specific directives [4][1][5].
Passing a second reconciliation bill requires a new, time-consuming budget resolution. A key procedural hurdle for any additional reconciliation bill is the requirement to pass another concurrent budget resolution [4][3]. This demands coordination between both congressional chambers to secure procedural benefits, such as a 51-vote passage in the Senate [4][3]. The budget reconciliation process typically takes an average of 148 days from the passage of a resolution to its enactment, making the limited remaining legislative calendar a significant obstacle for any additional bill before the end of the year [4][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1S.Con.Res. 33: The FY2026 Budget Resolutioneverycrsreport.com
  2. 2S.Con.Res. 33: The FY2026 Budget Resolution - EveryCRSReport.comeverycrsreport.com
  3. 3Upcoming Congressional Fiscal Policy Deadlines-2026-05-04crfb.org
  4. 4The Reconciliation Process: Frequently Asked Questions | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  5. 5Budget Reconciliation 101: Explaining Budget Reconciliation in Congress - AAPDaapd.com

7. What evidence from Senate leadership statements and voting records indicates the likelihood of the 'Reconciliation 2.0' bill passing in 2026?

Bill StatusStalled in Senate as of May 27, 2026 [1]
Reason for StallIntra-party opposition over 'anti-weaponization' fund [1]
Potential Future BillThird 'tax-focused' reconciliation bill later in 2026 [2][3][4][5]
The 'Reconciliation 2.0' bill stalled in the Senate due to internal opposition. As of May 27, 2026, Republican leadership withdrew the bill from the floor schedule primarily due to internal party opposition regarding a proposed Department of Justice 'anti-weaponization' fund [1]. While an initial passage deadline of June 1, 2026, had been targeted, the process was delayed by a lack of consensus among GOP senators and the exclusion of specific provisions following Senate parliamentarian rulings [1][6][7].
Significant doubt now surrounds 'Reconciliation 2.0's' passage timeline. Recent developments in late May 2026 have created considerable uncertainty for this bill, despite its earlier designation as a major Republican legislative priority [1][8][2][3]. Political observers are also speculating about a potential third, 'tax-focused' reconciliation bill emerging later in 2026, though its prospects depend heavily on the legislative calendar and the political dynamics of the midterm election year [2][3][4][5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Congress delays votes on ICE funding amid GOP opposition to new DOJ fund - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  2. 2Reconciliation 2.0 - NABLnabl.org
  3. 3Reconciliation 2.0 a real possibility | Bond Buyerbondbuyer.com
  4. 42026 Tax and Trade Policy Outlook: How Tax Reconciliation, Extenders, Tariffs, and Trade Reviews Will Shape Federal Policy | ML Strategiesmlstrategies.com
  5. 52026 Legislative and Regulatory Outlook | Insights | Holland & Knighthklaw.com
  6. 6House clears budget resolution, advancing Reconciliation 2.0 to fund DHS and CBP | National Association of Countiesnaco.org
  7. 7In Dear Colleague Letter, Leader Schumer... | The Senate Democratic Caucusdemocrats.senate.gov
  8. 8Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...? Predict... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

8. How do the passed 2025 reconciliation bill and the proposed 2026 'Reconciliation 2.0' bill compare in scope and political unity?

2025 Reconciliation Bill ScopeImmigration enforcement, social safety net programs, and various fiscal measures [1][2]
2026 'Reconciliation 2.0' ScopeHousing, healthcare, energy, alongside deregulatory and fiscal policies [3][4][5]
2026 'Reconciliation 2.0' Political StatusFaces significant political and procedural challenges regarding internal party consensus [3][4][5]
The 2025 reconciliation bill addressed broad areas and successfully passed. This legislative package encompassed immigration enforcement, social safety net programs, and various fiscal measures. It was enacted through the budget reconciliation process, enabling its passage with a simple majority and bypassing the Senate filibuster [1][2].
The proposed 2026 "Reconciliation 2.0" targets core cost-of-living drivers. This framework aims to address areas such as housing, healthcare, and energy, while also seeking to establish deregulatory and fiscal policies. Championed by House Republicans and the Republican Study Committee in early 2026, this proposal, despite endorsements and a united effort by House Conservatives to unveil its framework, faces significant political and procedural challenges in achieving internal party consensus [3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 12025 Reconciliation Tracker-2025-07-11crfb.org
  2. 29 Things to Know About the Reconciliation Bill - NILCnilc.org
  3. 3Alabama's GOP congressmen endorse "Reconciliation 2.0" packagealreporter.com
  4. 4GOP revisits “reconciliation 2.0” | Grant Thorntongrantthornton.com
  5. 5House Conservatives Unite to Unveil Reconciliation 2.0 Framework to Make the American Dream Affordable Again | Republican Study Committeersc-pfluger.house.gov

9. What historical precedents exist for Congress passing two or more reconciliation bills within the same calendar year?

Max reconciliation bills per budget resolutionUp to three (covering revenue, spending, and debt limit) [1][2]
Congresses with multiple reconciliation bills in a single year115th (2017) and 117th (2021) [1][3][2]
Current reconciliation bill explorationRepublican leadership exploring a third reconciliation bill in 2026 (as of May 2026) [4][5]
Congress can pass multiple reconciliation bills within a single calendar year. This is permissible if each bill originates from a distinct budget resolution [1][3][2]. Each individual budget resolution has the authority to authorize up to three separate reconciliation bills, which can address revenue, spending, and the federal debt limit. Since Congress has the capacity to enact multiple budget resolutions within a single year, the theoretical maximum number of reconciliation bills that can be passed annually is higher than just one [1][2].
Multiple reconciliation bills in a year are historically infrequent. Despite the theoretical possibility, this practice has been observed sparingly in recent history. Notable instances include the 115th Congress in 2017 and the 117th Congress in 2021 [1][3][2]. More recently, as of May 2026, Republican leadership in the House of Representatives has been actively considering the passage of a third reconciliation bill within the 2026 calendar year [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1The Reconciliation Process: Frequently Asked Questions | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  2. 2Reconciliation, Calendar Years and Fiscal Yearspinpointpolicyinstitute.org
  3. 3Introduction to Budget “Reconciliation” | Center on Budget and Policy Prioritiescbpp.org
  4. 4Republicans midterm gamble traces back to Nixon — and may backfirealternet.org
  5. 5House GOP still planning for third reconciliation bill - E&E News by POLITICOeenews.net

10. What specific policy disagreements between House and Senate Republicans could derail a potential third reconciliation bill in 2026?

Anti-weaponization fund request$1.8 billion (President Trump) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
White House security fund request$400 million or $1 billion (President Trump) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Social Security reform proposalRaise retirement age for younger Americans (Republican Study Committee) [8]
Republican policy divisions threaten a potential third reconciliation bill in 2026. Narrow Republican majorities in both chambers necessitate nearly unanimous consensus to pass reconciliation bills, making internal policy disagreements a significant obstacle [3][9]. These divisions include fundamental differences on the scope and size of the legislation, with House Republicans generally preferring a single, comprehensive bill, while Senate Republicans often advocate for breaking complex agendas into more focused legislative packages [10][11][9].
Healthcare, funding priorities, and tax specifics reveal further party rifts. In healthcare, discussions range from repealing or adjusting the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to allowing expiring subsidies to lapse, with contentious proposals including converting ACA subsidies and Medicaid funding into block grants, alongside potential abortion restrictions [12][13][14][15]. Specific funding requests also pose challenges; for example, former President Trump's requests for a $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization" fund and a $400 million or $1 billion White House ballroom security enhancement have sparked internal friction among Republicans due to governance concerns and potential Byrd Rule violations [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][16]. While extending the 2017 tax cuts is a shared objective, the details of these extensions and any new tax proposals frequently lead to disagreements concerning costs, impacts on the national debt, and necessary spending offsets [10][17][4].
Sources (17)
  1. 1tradersunion.com
  2. 2ey.comtaxnews.ey.com
  3. 3nlihc.org
  4. 4sullcrom.com
  5. 5kpmg.com
  6. 6youtube.com
  7. 7punchbowl.news
  8. 8house.govdemocrats-budget.house.gov
  9. 9house.govarrington.house.gov
  10. 10nlihc.org
  11. 11bgov.comabout.bgov.com
  12. 12apnews.com
  13. 13youtube.com
  14. 14youtube.com
  15. 15georgetown.educhir.georgetown.edu
  16. 16wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  17. 17pbs.org

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

S.Con.Res. 33, identified as the FY2026 budget resolution, includes reconciliation directives and sets an instructed-committee submission deadline of May 15, 2026 [1][2]. The Budget Committees are required to package the committee responses into an omnibus budget reconciliation bill without substantive revision [1][2].
A Polymarket event tracking whether the US Senate will pass a reconciliation bill by a specified deadline indicates leading outcomes of “May 31” at 86% and “May 22” at 77% [3]. Separately, a POLITICO/E&E News report dated May 22, 2026, describes House GOP discussion and planning for a “third reconciliation bill” [4]. This reporting frames the initiative as planning and conditional, stating that the House GOP “wants to move forward” and will “weigh whether they can advance” it [4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 02, 2027
  • Closes: January 02, 2027
Sources (4)
  1. 1S.Con.Res. 33: The FY2026 Budget Resolution - EveryCRSReport.comeverycrsreport.com
  2. 2S.Con.Res. 33: The FY2026 Budget Resolutioneverycrsreport.com
  3. 3Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...? Predict... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4House GOP still planning for third reconciliation bill - E&E News by POLITICOeenews.net