Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the SAVE Act to become law before Jan 4, 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has demonstrated a stable, sideways trading pattern, consistently pricing the probability of the SAVE Act becoming law below 10%. The price has been confined to a narrow range between 6.6% and 9.6%, starting at 9.1% and settling near the current price of 8.9%. The most notable, though minor, price movement occurred in early June 2026. The slight decline in price during this period appears to be a direct reaction to reports that the bill failed to overcome key procedural votes in the Senate. This legislative setback solidified the market's low expectations, preventing any upward momentum and locking the price into its current low-probability channel.
Volume analysis suggests that initial interest has waned, and the market has reached a consensus. The total volume traded is significant, but the pattern of high initial volume followed by periods of much lower activity indicates that traders priced in the bill's legislative challenges early on. The 6.6% level has acted as a floor or support, while the 9.6% mark has served as a ceiling or resistance, with the price failing to break out of this range. Overall, the chart reflects a strong and persistent market sentiment that the SAVE Act faces insurmountable obstacles and is highly unlikely to be enacted before the January 2027 resolution date.
  • The SAVE Act effectively died in the Senate in June 2026.
  • Senate leadership declared the SAVE Act dead for this Congress.
  • The bill failed a 48-50 Senate vote, falling short of 60.
  • No plans exist to reintroduce the bill before January 2027.
  • Passage by January 2027 likely requires significant election changes.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Jan 4, 2027 8.9% 6.9% The SAVE Act may pass Congress and become law before January 4, 2027.

Current Context

The SAVE Act stalled in the Senate after failing key votes. The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) encountered significant legislative hurdles in the U.S. Senate during June 2026, specifically failing to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold. A procedural vote on June 4, 2026, resulted in a 48–50 failure [1][2]. A subsequent effort by Senator Mike Lee on June 8, 2026, to attach the House-passed version of the bill to a broader immigration package secured 50 votes, but this remained 10 votes short of the 60 required to advance [3][1][4][5]. Following these developments, many observers and political analysts consider the bill to be effectively dead for the remainder of the 119th Congress [3][1][4][5].
Republican leadership considers the bill's passage highly improbable. Key figures, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have indicated that passing the legislation in the current session is unlikely. They suggest passage would necessitate either a significant shift in Senate composition or a change to filibuster rules, neither of which currently commands sufficient support in the Senate [3][6][7][8].
Prediction markets consistently show extremely low odds for the bill. These markets consistently reflect a very low probability of the SAVE Act becoming law before January 4, 2027 [9][10]. Both traders and predictive models generally view the bill's legislative path as essentially closed for the current congressional session [9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1The Final Senate Vote on the SAVE Act and Why It Failed to Pass | Oreate AI Guidesexplore.oreate.ai
  2. 2Trump’s SAVE America Act restricting voting nixed by Senate; Murkowski among four Republicans opposedjuneauindependent.com
  3. 3Trump's SAVE Act Plan for Midterms Is Slipping Away - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  4. 4Senate Republicans Revive SAVE America Act Fight After Key Late-Night Vote - CBNCcbnc.com
  5. 5Senate Republicans Revive SAVE America Act Fight After Key Late-Night Vote - Slay Newsslaynews.com
  6. 6Trump pushes SAVE America Act as Senate balks over WH agenda | Just The Newsjustthenews.com
  7. 7You Vote: Trump asked Thune to fire parliamentarian so Senate can pass SAVE America Act. Will he? | Just The Newsjustthenews.com
  8. 8Let’s Do This: What Exactly Is the SAVE Act, and What Are Its Chances of Becoming Law?wolvesandsheep.substack.com
  9. 9SAVE Act becomes law by...? Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  10. 10Will the SAVE Act become law? Odds & Predictions 2027 - Kalshikalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) becomes law before January 4, 2027, 10:00 AM EST; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome will be verified using the Library of Congress, and the market will close early if the event occurs before the deadline. Insider trading is prohibited for employees of Source Agencies and anyone with material, non-public information related to the Underlying.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Jan 4, 2027 $0.09 $0.92 9%

Market Discussion

The market largely anticipates the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) will not become law, currently showing an 8.9% chance of resolution to Yes. A significant argument against passage is that some traders may be confusing the specific H.R. 22 with a different, potentially more current "Save America Act," with critics claiming H.R. 22 has virtually no path forward in the Senate. While a few participants expressed support for the bill's passage, specific arguments for its enactment are absent from the discussion.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 76 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score42High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score76Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
54Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract

Before Jan 4, 202754
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Before Jan 4, 2027—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Before Jan 4, 2027100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
42High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 54 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.2c slippage (~6% of a 3.4c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.4c slippage (~12% of a 3.4c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before Jan 4, 202754Market scoreLiquidity54Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 54
Liquidity
54 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What specific outcomes in the November 2026 midterm elections could create a viable path for the SAVE Act to pass before January 2027?

Current Bill StatusStalled in U.S. Senate as of June 2026 [1][2][3]
Deadline for PassageJanuary 4, 2027 [4][5][6][7]
Votes Needed60 votes to overcome filibuster [1][2][3]
The SAVE Act currently lacks sufficient support for passage in the U.S. Senate. As of June 2026, the bill is stalled, unable to advance due to insufficient support and the 60-vote requirement needed to overcome a filibuster [1][2][3]. Republican leadership has indicated that the SAVE Act is unlikely to pass before the November 2026 midterm elections unless there is a change in the Senate's composition [2][8].
A viable path relies on strong Republican midterm performance to pass the SAVE Act. Such a path would depend entirely on the post-election "lame duck" session, specifically if Republicans achieve exceptional results in the November 2026 midterms [2][4][5][6][7]. This scenario could theoretically create a significant political shift, potentially pressuring wavering senators to change their votes [2][4][5][6][7].
Significant hurdles remain even with a strong election outcome for Republicans. Passing the bill would still necessitate either securing 60 votes or successfully abandoning the filibuster, neither of which currently has consensus [2][4]. Furthermore, to meet the January 4, 2027 deadline, a viable legislative route would require attaching the SAVE Act to high-leverage "must-pass" legislative vehicles, such as government funding bills or the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) [4][5][6][7].
Sources (8)
  1. 1US Senate blocks Trump’s SAVE America Act, thwarting restrictions on voting - Wausau Pilot & Reviewwausaupilotandreview.com
  2. 2Trump's SAVE Act Plan for Midterms Is Slipping Away - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  3. 3Trump’s SAVE America Act restricting voting nixed by Senate; Murkowski among four Republicans opposedjuneauindependent.com
  4. 4Why This Year’s Lame Duck Session May Look Differentbrumidigroup.com
  5. 5https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R45154/R45154.14.pdfcongress.gov
  6. 6Lame Duck Sessions (1940-Present) - Senate.govsenate.gov
  7. 7Lame Duck Sessions of Congress Following a Majority-Changing Election: In Brief - EveryCRSReport.comeverycrsreport.com
  8. 8What is Trump-backed SAVE America Act and what could it mean for US vote? | US Midterm Elections 2026 News | Al Jazeera1-e8259.azureedge.net

6. Which Republican and Democratic senators voted against advancing the SAVE Act in June 2026, and what were their stated reasons?

Republican Senators against4 (Collins, Murkowski, McConnell, Tillis) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Senate Vote Result48-50 against [1][2][3][4][5]
Democratic Senators againstAll Democratic senators [1][2][3][4][5][6]
The U.S. Senate blocked the SAVE America Act in June 2026. Senators voted 48-50 against an amendment to attach the SAVE America Act to an immigration-focused spending bill [1][2][3][4][5]. This vote saw four Republican senators—Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and Thom Tillis (R-NC)—join all Democratic senators in voting against advancing the amendment [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Reasons for opposition varied among senators on the bill. The stated reasons for the four Republican senators' votes against advancing the amendment were not specified in the available research. However, Democratic senators opposed the legislation, asserting that federal law already prohibits non-citizen voting, that current election safeguards are sufficient, and that the bill was part of an effort to implement restrictive election rules [1][2][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Four Senate Republicans again vote to kill Trump's SAVE Act voter ID bill | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  2. 2Four GOP Senators Join Dems to Stop SAVE Actlegalinsurrection.com
  3. 3SAVE America Act fails in the Senate as GOP defections doom Trump's voting restrictions | Arizona Mirrorazmirror.com
  4. 4US Senate blocks Trump’s SAVE America Act, thwarting restrictions on voting • Georgia Recordergeorgiarecorder.com
  5. 5Four Senate Republicans Vote Against SAVE America Act - Texas Politics SAVE America Act Fails in Senatetexaspolitics.com
  6. 64 Republicans Sided With Dems To Reject SAVE America Act, The Restrictive Voter ID Law Pushed By Trump - Blavityblavity.com

7. How do the voter verification rules in the SAVE Act compare to the provisions in the For the People Act of 2021?

SAVE Act Citizenship ProofMandates documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal election registration [1][2][3]
For the People Act Citizenship ProofDid not impose new documentary proof of U.S. citizenship requirements for registration [4]
SAVE Act Noncitizen RemovalRequires states to remove noncitizens from voter rolls using DHS SAVE system [4]
The SAVE Act and For the People Act diverge on voter citizenship verification. The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act (H.R. 22) explicitly mandates that states require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal elections, thereby amending the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) [1][2][3]. Conversely, the For the People Act of 2021 (H.R. 1/S. 1) did not introduce new documentary proof of citizenship requirements for voter registration [4].
The SAVE Act enhances voter roll verification, For the People Act expands access. The SAVE Act includes specific provisions requiring states to remove noncitizens from voter rolls by utilizing verification tools like the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) SAVE system [4]. The SAVE America Act, which passed the House in February 2026, further mandates photo identification for federal elections and codifies the use of the DHS citizenship verification system for voter rolls [4]. In contrast, the For the People Act focused on expanding voter access through measures such as internet registration, automatic voter registration, and same-day registration, rather than imposing new documentary proof or noncitizen removal requirements [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (SAVE Act, H.R. 22/S. 128) and Federal Voter Registration Policy and Lawcongress.gov
  2. 2H.R.22 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): SAVE Actcongress.gov
  3. 3Text - H.R.22 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): SAVE Actcongress.gov
  4. 4Q&A on the SAVE America Act - FactCheck.orgfactcheck.org

8. What have Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other key congressional leaders publicly stated about prioritizing the SAVE Act after the failed June 2026 votes?

SAVE Act StatusDeclared "dead" in current session [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Senate Vote Tally48-50 [7][8][9][10][11]
Republican Defections4 (Collins, Murkowski, McConnell, Tillis) [7][8][9][10][11]
Senate Majority Leader Thune declared the SAVE Act dead after its June 2026 vote. Following a failed Senate vote on June 4, 2026, Senate Majority Leader John Thune publicly stated that the SAVE Act is "dead" in the current session. He attributed this outcome to the insufficient number of votes and the unwillingness to eliminate the legislative filibuster, identifying these as insurmountable obstacles [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Thune rejected proposals to bypass the filibuster, citing insufficient support. He pushed back against suggestions from President Trump and other allies to fire the Senate parliamentarian or abolish the filibuster as a means to circumvent the 60-vote requirement. Thune indicated that these alternatives were either unfeasible under existing Senate rules or lacked adequate support within his caucus [2][3][4][5][6]. The June 4, 2026, vote concluded with a 48–50 tally, primarily due to unanimous opposition from Democrats and the defection of four Republican senators: Collins, Murkowski, McConnell, and Tillis, further demonstrating the bill's lack of necessary bipartisan support [7][8][9][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Sen John Thune details why SAVE America Act faces hurdles in the Senate | Fox News Videofoxnews.com
  2. 2'There Aren't Even Close To The Votes Here': John Thune Explains Why SAVE America Act Won't Passyoutube.com
  3. 3Thune pushes back on Trump's call to fire Obama-era parliamentarian | Fox Businessfoxbusiness.com
  4. 4WATCH: GOP leader John Thune says SAVE America Act is dead, laughs at potential Trump criticismtrue.news
  5. 5UPDATE: Senate Leader John Thune says SAVE America Act is DEAD, he's NOT getting the votes to nuke the filibuster, and he laughed when asked if President Trump could turn on him as a result - Pravda Trumptrump.news-pravda.com
  6. 6Republicans' sweeping election overhaul fails in the Senate - NPRnpr.org
  7. 7Four Senate Republicans again vote to kill Trump's SAVE Act voter ID bill | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  8. 8Republicans' sweeping election overhaul fails in the Senate | WUNC Newswunc.org
  9. 9Four Senate Republicans again vote to kill Trump's SAVE Act voter ID bill | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  10. 10Republicans' sweeping election overhaul fails in the Senate | KUNCkunc.org
  11. 11The Final Senate Vote on the SAVE Act and Why It Failed to Pass | Oreate AI Guidesexplore.oreate.ai

9. What procedural maneuvers, such as filibuster reform or attaching the bill to must-pass legislation, could be attempted during the post-election lame-duck session of 2026?

SAVE Act Status (June 2026)Multiple legislative failures in U.S. Senate [1][2][3]
Senate Cloture Threshold60 votes [4][5][6][7]
Passage Probability by Jan 2027Highly improbable [3][8][9]
The SAVE Act faces significant Senate obstacles, making passage unlikely. As of June 2026, the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) has repeatedly failed to advance in the U.S. Senate, primarily due to opposition from Democrats and defections among key Republican senators [1][2][3]. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated that Republicans lack the necessary 60 votes to overcome a filibuster [3]. Furthermore, Thune has ruled out employing the "nuclear option" to alter Senate rules and force the bill's passage, citing insufficient support within his own conference [3][8][10].
Procedural maneuvers in the lame-duck session are improbable without bipartisan support. While options such as attaching the bill to 'must-pass' legislation, utilizing budget reconciliation if applicable, or seeking unanimous consent could theoretically be attempted during the 2026 post-election lame-duck session, these strategies are widely regarded as insufficient to overcome the established 60-vote cloture threshold in the Senate without substantial bipartisan cooperation [4][5][6][7]. Consequently, prediction markets and political analysts widely assess the passage of the SAVE Act before January 4, 2027, as highly improbable, as Republican leadership has shifted its focus to the midterm elections as the sole realistic pathway for legislative success [3][8][9].
Sources (10)
  1. 1SAVE America Act fails in the Senate as GOP defections doom Trump's voting restrictions | Arizona Mirrorazmirror.com
  2. 2Trump’s SAVE America Act restricting voting nixed by Senate; Murkowski among four Republicans opposedjuneauindependent.com
  3. 3Trump's SAVE Act Plan for Midterms Is Slipping Away - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  4. 4Lame Duck Sessions of Congress, 1935-2020 (74th-116th Congresses)sgp.fas.org
  5. 5The Budget Reconciliation Process: Timing of Legislative Action | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  6. 6https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R48444/R48444.1.pdfcongress.gov
  7. 7Lame Duck Sessions (1940-Present) - Senate.govsenate.gov
  8. 8Can the SAVE America Act Pass the Senate in 2026?statt.com
  9. 9SAVE Act Status: Latest Odds for SAVE Act to Become Lawfederalnewsnetwork.com
  10. 10Let’s Do This: What Exactly Is the SAVE Act, and What Are Its Chances of Becoming Law?wolvesandsheep.substack.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act effectively died in the U.S. Senate on June 4, 2026, when it failed to advance in a 48–50 vote, falling short of the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster [1]. Senate leadership has indicated no plans to reintroduce or further consider the SAVE Act for the remainder of the 119th Congress, which concludes in early January 2027 [2][1].
Prediction markets, which previously assigned the SAVE Act a low probability of passage (ranging from approximately 7% to 10%), reflect the broad consensus that the legislation will not become law before the January 4, 2027 deadline [3][4]. Republican leadership in the Senate, including Majority Leader John Thune, has publicly acknowledged that the party lacks the necessary votes to pass the bill and that future progress is contingent on changing the composition of the Senate in upcoming elections [2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 04, 2027
  • Closes: January 04, 2027
Sources (4)
  1. 1The Final Senate Vote on the SAVE Act and Why It Failed to Pass | Oreate AI Guidesexplore.oreate.ai
  2. 2Trump's SAVE Act Plan for Midterms Is Slipping Away - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  3. 3H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? Predictions &...polymarket.com
  4. 4Will the SAVE Act become law? — 10% Chance (Live)predictionhunt.com