Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for a Senate vote on the SAVE America Act before Nov 3, 2026, at 22.5% model vs 44.0% market. This suggests a significantly reduced probability of any Senate vote after Republican leaders reportedly announced they were unlikely to hold additional votes on the bill.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has displayed a consistent and significant downward trend. Opening at a modest 18.0% probability, the price collapsed to a low of 4.0% before settling at its current 6.0%. The most dramatic price movement was the sharp decline from 18.0% to 4.0% between April 24 and May 4. This decline reflects increasing pessimism following a failed cloture vote on March 26, which stalled the bill's progress. The market's continued low valuation was reinforced by a Punchbowl report on May 7, which stated that Senate Republican leaders were unlikely to schedule any further votes on the act, effectively cementing the market's belief that a vote is not forthcoming.
The market's price action indicates key technical levels at the low of 4.0%, which has acted as a support floor, and the opening price of 18.0%, which served as an early, but quickly abandoned, ceiling. The total trading volume of 1,174 contracts suggests moderate engagement over the life of the market, though recent data points show a lack of activity. This low recent volume suggests that traders have reached a strong consensus and see little opportunity for the situation to change, reflecting high conviction in the low probability. Overall, the chart indicates a strong and stable market sentiment that the Senate will not vote on the SAVE America Act before the resolution date.
  • Senate Republican leaders announced shelving the SAVE America Act on May 7, 2026.
  • H.R. 7296 remains in an early House stage, officially listed as "Introduced."
  • Procedural maneuvers or political catalysts could compel Senate leadership to schedule a vote.
  • A past SAVE-related amendment failed due to key Republican opposition.
  • Historical data on failed cloture motions does not quantify future vote probability.
  • The 2026 legislative calendar will impact Senate floor time for the Act.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Oct 1, 2026 0.0% 17.5% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Before Nov 3, 2026 44.0% 22.5% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.

Current Context

Senate leaders do not plan further votes on the SAVE America Act. As of May 8, 2026, Punchbowl reported on May 7, 2026, that Senate Republican leaders were unlikely to schedule additional votes on the SAVE America Act [1]. This indicates there is no upcoming Senate vote date for the measure.
A recent cloture vote failure stalled the SAVE America Act. The Senate's last notable action concerning the SAVE America Act was a cloture motion on the Husted amendment (#4732) on March 26 [2][3]. This motion failed with a vote of 53-47, leading to the measure appearing stalled rather than progressing towards final passage [2][3].
A prediction market indicates low probability of the Act's passage. A Polymarket titled “Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)?” is designed to resolve if the Senate passes the Act by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET [4]. The market probability for a “Yes” outcome was approximately 14% at the time of publication [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Senate shelves SAVE as filibuster debate ragespunchbowl.news
  2. 2When does the Senate vote on the SAVE Act bill? SAVE America Act statusyahoo.com
  3. 3Did the SAVE America Act pass? SAVE Act status, Senate vote results - AOLaol.com
  4. 4Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)? Pr... | Polymarketpolymarket.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Before Jun 27, 2026

📉 May 07, 2026: 21.0pp drop

Price decreased from 32.0% to 11.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 21.0 percentage point drop was the announcement from Senate Republican leaders on May 07, 2026, stating they were "unlikely to hold additional votes" on the SAVE America Act and that the bill had been "effectively shelved" [1]. This official statement directly reduced the perceived likelihood of a Senate vote before June 27, 2026, causing the market to price in a lower probability for that outcome [1]. Based on the provided information, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.

Outcome: Before Jun 13, 2026

📉 May 02, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 28.0% to 20.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop on May 02, 2026, was traditional news reporting in late April 2026 that indicated the SAVE America Act was stalled. Multiple outlets reported that the Senate had effectively “benched” the bill after a cloture motion failed in March and that a full vote was "not likely any time soon" or "not expected any time soon" [2][3][4]. This widespread reporting in the days leading up to the market movement significantly reduced the perceived probability of a vote occurring "Before Jun 13, 2026". Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity was identified in the provided information.

📉 April 25, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 38.0% to 26.0%

What happened: The 12.0 percentage point drop on April 25, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news reports characterizing the SAVE America Act as stalled and "benched" [5][3]. A cluster of coverage from April 23-26, 2026, coincided with the price movement and noted Rep. Anna Paulina Luna stating the debate was stalled and a vote was "not likely any time soon" [5][3]. This news directly reduced expectations for a Senate vote before Jun 13, 2026. Social media activity appears to have been irrelevant based on the available information.
Sources (5)
  1. 1punchbowl.news
  2. 2Did the SAVE Act pass? SAVE America Act status, Senate vote resultsapp.com
  3. 3Did Senate GOP bench SAVE Act voter ID bill amid Iran war concerns?courierpostonline.com
  4. 4When does the Senate vote on the SAVE Act bill? SAVE America Act statusyahoo.com
  5. 5Did the SAVE America Act pass? SAVE Act status, Senate vote results - AOLaol.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Senate conducts any recorded vote on the SAVE America Act before November 3, 2026. Qualifying votes include roll call, yea-and-nay, electronic, and division/standing votes, as well as votes on cloture or a motion to proceed to the act; however, cloture on an amendment only qualifies if it serves as a procedural vehicle for final passage. If no such recorded vote occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to No, and it will close by November 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST, or earlier if the event occurs.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Oct 1, 2026 $0.39 $0.68 0%
Before Nov 3, 2026 $0.44 $0.63 44%

Market Discussion

Traders are actively discussing the timing of a Senate vote on the SAVE America Act, with some expressing confusion and a belief that the Act has already passed or been voted on, questioning why the market hasn't closed. Others anticipate a vote in the near future, citing a statement from Senator Thune indicating a vote "next week" (as of mid-March). Despite these immediate expectations, market probabilities for a vote occurring before various dates in 2026 remain below 50%, reflecting overall uncertainty among participants.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 72 Good

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk
Trust score72Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXVOTESAVEAMERICA-26APR-AUG08 carried 35% of its $708 tape (print is 47d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
31Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Oct 1, 202628
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Before Nov 3, 202631
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
51Mixed

Some moves lacked volume

2 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Nov 3, 202651
Mixed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Before Oct 1, 202666
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Nov 3, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Oct 1, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
31High Risk

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 31 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Nov 3, 202631Market scoreLiquidity31Move quality51Rule clarity100
Why 31
Liquidity
31 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
51 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Oct 1, 202628Market scoreLiquidity28Move quality66Rule clarity100
Why 28
Liquidity
28 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
66 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. What procedural maneuvers or political catalysts could compel Senate leadership to schedule a final vote on the SAVE America Act before the end of 2026?

Votes needed for motion to proceed (House-passed version)50 votes [1]
John Thune's commitment to debateMarch 12–17, 2026 [2]
John Thune's promise for Senate votenext week [3]
Procedural maneuvers can expedite a Senate vote on the SAVE America Act. Senate leadership possesses procedural tools to compel a final vote on the SAVE America Act by circumventing the typical 60-vote cloture threshold [1]. One such tactic involves scheduling a motion to proceed on the House-passed version of the Act, which requires only 50 votes to pass [1]. Following this, leadership could utilize a "talking filibuster" strategy, compelling opponents to continuously hold the floor to obstruct the bill [1]. This method aims to make obstruction costly, forcing senators to either continue speaking or yield the floor [1]. However, the effectiveness of this strategy hinges on Senate leadership's consistent enforcement, as a lack of engagement could still permit obstruction [4].
Political influences significantly compel Senate leadership to schedule the vote. External pressures and explicit commitments from Senate leadership are crucial political catalysts for advancing a vote on the Act [3]. Contemporary political reports indicated that the acceleration of a vote was linked to the White House agenda and pressure from former President Trump [3]. Notably, Senator John Thune publicly committed to bringing the SAVE America Act to the floor for an "extended debate," a commitment observed between March 12 and March 17, 2026, signaling leadership's willingness to calendar its consideration [2]. Senator Thune also publicly stated that the bill would receive a Senate vote "next week" [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1In major showdown over voting rights, Senate readies to debate SAVE America Act - Democracy Docketdemocracydocket.com
  2. 2Thune to Bring SAVE America Act to the Senate Floor - Press Releases - U.S. Senator John Thunethune.senate.gov
  3. 3Trump-backed SAVE America Act will get a Senate vote, John Thune sayscnbc.com
  4. 4Did the SAVE America Act pass? SAVE Act status, Senate vote results - AOLaol.com

7. Following the failed March 26 cloture motion, what is the official procedural status of H.R. 7296 and what specific actions are now required to bring it to a floor vote?

Bill StatusIntroduced (Congress.gov [1][2])
Latest ActionJan. 30, 2026, referral to House Committee on House Administration [1][2]
Senate Floor VotesNone recorded for H.R. 7296 [1][2][3][4]
H.R. 7296, the SAVE America Act, remains in an early House stage. The bill is officially listed as "Introduced" on Congress.gov, with its latest recorded action being a referral to the House Committee on House Administration on January 30, 2026 [1][2]. This status indicates that the bill is currently in an initial phase of the legislative process within the House of Representatives.
No Senate floor consideration or cloture vote has occurred for H.R. 7296. Official records do not support the premise of a "failed March 26 cloture motion" for H.R. 7296; Senate floor activity concerning cloture on that date in 2026 was related to H.R. 7147 [5]. Consistent with H.R. 7296's "Introduced" status and referral to a House committee, there have been no roll call votes, meaning the bill has not yet reached Senate consideration or floor voting [1][2][3][4]. The provided information does not detail the specific actions required to advance H.R. 7296 to a floor vote in the Senate from its current stage.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Text - H.R.7296 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): SAVE America Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  2. 2H.R.7296 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): SAVE America Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  3. 3Details for H.R. 7296: SAVE America Act - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  4. 4SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  5. 5U.S. Senate: Senate Floor Activity - Thursday, March 26, 2026senate.gov

8. How do the voting records of potential swing-vote Senators on similar past legislation compare, suggesting a likely whip count for a future SAVE America Act vote?

Past Senate Vote OutcomeSAVE-related amendment failed 48–50 [1][2]
Decisive Opposition Bloc4 Republican Senators (Collins, Murkowski, Tillis, McConnell) voted “no” [1][2]
Senate Filibuster Threshold60 votes required to advance legislation [3]
A recent SAVE-related amendment failed due to key Republican opposition. A Senate amendment related to SAVE legislation was defeated in a past vote-a-rama/budget-plan context, with the vote tallying 48–50 [1][2]. This outcome was notably influenced by the opposition of four Republican senators: Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis, and Mitch McConnell, all of whom cast "no" votes [1][2]. Their unified opposition demonstrated how a small bloc of votes can be decisive in Senate proceedings.
Future SAVE America Act votes face a challenging 60-vote threshold. This past defeat underscores that even minor shifts in support can translate into legislative failure for the SAVE America Act. Given the Senate's procedural requirement for 60 votes to advance legislation under the filibuster, the effective "whip count" heavily relies on preventing defections, particularly from this identified group of anti-SAVE senators. Although Mark Meadows' previous "whip count" indicated 25 Senate supporters, the impact of the four-vote bloc highlights the significant challenge of achieving the 60-vote threshold [4][1][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 14 GOP Senators Block SAVE Act From Budget Packageheritagereview.com
  2. 24 Republicans oppose adding SAVE voting requirements to budget planwgme.com
  3. 3Trump-backed SAVE America Act will get a Senate vote, John Thune sayscnbc.com
  4. 4Meadows Releases List of Senators Who Support SAVE America Actdailycaucus.com

9. What does historical data from the last two Congresses show about the probability of bills reaching a final vote after an initial cloture motion fails?

117th Congress Cloture Non-invocations66 [1][2][3]
118th Congress Cloture Non-invocations39 [1][2][3]
117th Congress Total Cloture Motions Filed336 [1][2][3]
Historical data from the last two Congresses does not directly quantify the probability of bills reaching a final vote after an initial cloture motion fails. The available information indicates that cloture failures, specifically termed "not invoked" outcomes, occur frequently. These failures happen even when alternative procedural pathways might still allow for eventual legislative progress for a bill [1][2][3].
Cloture motions frequently fail in recent Congressional sessions, as demonstrated by specific figures. During the 117th Congress, 66 cloture motions were not invoked out of 336 filed motions. The subsequent 118th Congress recorded 39 instances where cloture was not invoked from a total of 266 filed motions [1][2][3]. These statistics highlight the common occurrence of cloture failures.
Specific cloture failures illustrate challenges but lack predictive power for a final vote outcome. For instance, multiple rejections of cloture on motions to proceed for H.R. 7147 occurred in the 119th Congress [4][5][6]. However, this information alone is insufficient to establish the conditional probability of a bill reaching a final vote. Therefore, historical rates of cloture failure to final vote are considered only a partial input for predicting market outcomes [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1U.S. Senate: Cloture Motions - 117th Congresssenate.gov
  2. 2U.S. Senate: Cloture Motions - 118th Congresssenate.gov
  3. 3U.S. Senate: Cloture Motionssenate.gov
  4. 4U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 119th Congress - 2nd Sessionsenate.gov
  5. 5U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 119th Congress - 2nd Sessionsenate.gov
  6. 6Senate DHS Deadlock: Four Cloture Votes, Zero Results | Gov Transparency Projectgovtransparencyproject.org
  7. 7When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act? - Kalshikalshi.com

10. How might the legislative calendar leading up to the November 2026 midterm elections influence the timing of a potential vote on the SAVE America Act?

House Passage DateFebruary 11, 2026 [1][2][3]
Senate Leadership CommitmentMid-March 2026, with procedural vote on March 17 [4][5][6]
Senate State Work PeriodOctober 5 – November 6, 2026 [7][8]
The 2026 legislative calendar will impact Senate floor time for the SAVE America Act. The legislative calendar leading up to the November 2026 midterm elections is expected to influence the timing of a potential Senate vote on the SAVE America Act, primarily by limiting available floor time later in the year [7][8]. A significant constraint is the Senate’s tentative 2026 schedule, which includes a State Work Period from October 5 to November 6, 2026 [7][8]. This extended period away from Washington would likely diminish opportunities to schedule and complete a potentially contested Senate floor vote close to the midterm elections [7][8].
Early legislative actions indicate a desire for prompt Senate consideration of the bill. The SAVE America Act was passed by the House of Representatives on February 11, 2026, and subsequently moved to the Senate for consideration [1][2][3]. In mid-March 2026, Senate leadership publicly committed to bringing the legislation to the floor, with Senator Thune remarking on March 12, 2026, that it would be considered "next week" [4][5]. Further reports confirmed a Senate procedural vote on March 17 to initiate debate on the bill [6]. These swift initial steps suggest that the question of timing for a final Senate vote centers on how quickly leadership can secure dedicated floor time, navigating the necessary committee and procedural steps, especially in light of the impending late-year State Work Period [4][5][6][1][2][3].
Sources (8)
  1. 1When will SAVE Act pass? Senate vote on SAVE Act; see what's nextthenorthwestern.com
  2. 2H.R.7296 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): SAVE America Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  3. 3Did the Senate pass the SAVE Act today? SAVE America Act 2026 statusdelawareonline.com
  4. 4Thune to Bring SAVE America Act to the Senate Floor - Press Releases - U.S. Senator John Thunethune.senate.gov
  5. 5Trump-backed SAVE America Act will get a Senate vote, John Thune sayscnbc.com
  6. 6Senate votes to start debate on Trump-backed SAVE America Actcnbc.com
  7. 7U.S. Senate: Tentative 2026 Legislative Schedulesenate.gov
  8. 8https://www.senate.gov/legislative/resources/pdf/2026_calendar.pdfsenate.gov

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The date and time of a Senate vote on the SAVE Act were not set as of a March 9, 2026 report, even though the House had passed the bill and the Senate was expected to take it up soon [1]. A March 3, 2026 report similarly stated there was no specific date for a Senate vote, though it was expected “very soon” based on comments from Senate leadership [2].
A March 16, 2026 report indicated that the Senate planned to debate the SAVE America Act during that week, but it did not provide a fixed vote date or time [3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 20, 2026
  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (3)
  1. 1When is the Senate vote date to pass SAVE Act? Status, ID requirementsusatoday.com
  2. 2When does Senate vote to pass SAVE Act today? Status, ID requirementsapp.com
  3. 3Senate will debate SAVE Act this weekbaynews9.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 11 markets in this series

Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXVOTESAVEAMERICA-26MAR-MAY01: NO (May 01, 2026)
  • KXVOTESAVEAMERICA-26MAR-MAR27: NO (Mar 27, 2026)
  • KXVOTESAVEAMERICA-26MAR-MAR24: NO (Mar 24, 2026)
  • KXVOTESAVEAMERICA-26MAR-MAR20: NO (Mar 20, 2026)
  • KXVOTESAVEAMERICA-26MAR-APR15: NO (Apr 15, 2026)