How long will the next FISA authorization be?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Recent long-term FISA reauthorization efforts faced decisive failure.
- Systemic FBI Section 702 abuses fuel legislative opposition.
- A House procedural vote on FISA reauthorization failed decisively.
- Legislative divisions indicate difficulty for a long-term extension.
- FISA reauthorization votes are consistently scheduled very near deadlines.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30 days | 80.0% | 80.2% | Deep legislative divisions and recent failures make a short-term reauthorization more probable. |
| At least 90 days | 75.0% | 75.4% | Continued legislative divisions and FBI concerns indicate a shorter authorization is likely. |
| At least 2 years | 57.0% | 46.3% | The recent failure of a long-term bill and FBI abuses hinder a multi-year reauthorization. |
| At least 1 year | 63.0% | 52.2% | Legislative divisions and FBI abuses create hurdles for a one-year authorization. |
| At least 5 years | 3.0% | 2.4% | Deep legislative divisions and documented FBI abuses strongly oppose a five-year reauthorization. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 1 year
📉 April 28, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 63.0%
Outcome: At least 2 years
📈 April 23, 2026: 37.0pp spike
Price increased from 35.0% to 72.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after issuance extends the authority by at least 2 years; otherwise, it resolves to "No." A presidential pocket veto that expires also results in a "No" resolution. The market opened on April 21, 2026, and will close early if the outcome occurs, otherwise, it closes by January 1, 2028, at 10:00 am EST, with verification from the Library of Congress.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30 days | $0.81 | $0.21 | 80% |
| At least 90 days | $0.76 | $0.29 | 75% |
| At least 1 year | $0.65 | $0.37 | 63% |
| At least 2 years | $0.58 | $0.49 | 57% |
| At least 5 years | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What are House Leaders' Stances on FISA Section 702 Extension?
| House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan | Supports FISA Section 702 extension, reversing previous stance [1]. |
|---|---|
| House Judiciary Ranking Member Jamie Raskin | Emphasizes reforms to protect civil liberties during reauthorization [2]. |
| HPSCI Ranking Member Jim Himes | Strongly supports preserving and reauthorizing FISA 702 [3], [4]. |
Sources (5)
- 1Jim Jordan reverses long-held position on spy powers, says he will back Trump extension of FISA 702longbridge.com
- 2Ranking Member Raskin’s Opening Statement at Hearing on FISA Reforms to Protect Americans’ Civil Liberties | U.S. House Judiciary Committee Democratsdemocrats-judiciary.house.gov
- 3Himes Statement on FISA 702 Reauthorization | Press Releases | Congressman Jim Himeshimes.house.gov
- 4‘I've been taking a ton of risk’: How Jim Himes is leading the fight to preserve a key surveillance authority - Troib Newstroib.com
- 5Ranking Member Himes Offers Amendment to FISA Section 702 | Press Releases | Congressman Jim Himeshimes.house.gov
6. What Unlawful FBI Section 702 Searches Were Uncovered?
| Extent of Abuses | Hundreds of thousands of U.S. persons' communications queried without authorization [1] |
|---|---|
| Key Report | March 2026 Department of Justice Inspector General (DOJ OIG) report [2] |
| Examples of Targets | U.S. Senator, state judge, state political party official, journalist, humanitarian relief efforts [1] |
Sources (3)
- 1New FISA Court Opinion Reveals Continuing Violations by the FBI | Brennan Center for Justicebrennancenter.org
- 2DOJ OIG Releases Report on the FBI’s Querying Practices Under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Actoig.justice.gov
- 3https://www.intelligence.gov/assets/documents/702-documents/declassified/2025/FISC_Opinion_2_Apr_2025_2024_Cert_D_Redacted_8-19-25_final.pdfintelligence.gov
7. Why is FISA Section 702 Reauthorization Facing Legislative Hurdles?
| Long-term Reauthorization Bill Status | Failed in House, April 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Short-term Extensions | Approved 10-day extensions [2] |
| Speaker Johnson's Plan | Announced "new plan" after failed votes [1] |
8. What Was the Outcome of the House FISA Reauthorization Rule Vote?
Sources (4)
- 1Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representativesclerk.house.gov
- 2H.Res. 1175: Providing for consideration of the bill (H.R. 8035) to amend the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 to extend the authorities of title VII of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 through October 20, 2027, and for other purposes. -- GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 3After 2 failed votes, Mike Johnson unveils new plan to extend key U.S. spy powers: NPRnpr.org
- 4House GOP Postpones FISA Extension Vote Amid Internal Privacy Disputeharianbasis.co
9. How Close Does Congress Schedule FISA Reauthorization Votes to Deadlines?
| 2024 House Vote | 7 days before expiration [1] |
|---|---|
| 2024 Senate Vote | On expiration day [1] |
| 2018 Senate Vote | 3 days before expiration [2] |
Sources (5)
- 1FISA Section 702 Reauthorized for Two Years | Lawfarelawfaremedia.org
- 2Senate overcomes filibuster and advances FISA extension bill | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 3FISA Section 702 and the 2024 Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 4Senate unanimously clears FISA surveillance program extension after House late-night voteabcnews4.com
- 5House Report 112-645 - FISA AMENDMENTS ACT REAUTHORIZATION ACT OF 2012govinfo.gov