Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Gavin Newsom to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Gavin Newsom consistently leads in early polling and prediction markets as a top contender.
- Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are frequently cited as prominent potential nominees.
- Kamala Harris may benefit from the proposed South Carolina early primary calendar.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.5% | 0.5% | Oprah Winfrey is a highly influential and popular public figure with broad appeal. |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.7% | 0.8% | Bernie Sanders has a dedicated progressive base and significant past presidential primary experience. |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.9% | 1.1% | Chelsea Clinton is a member of a prominent political family with a recognizable name. |
| Andrew Yang | 0.2% | 50.0% | Outside deterministic model scope. |
| Hunter Biden | 0.7% | 0.6% | This outcome represents a potential unnamed candidate. |
Current Context
The 2028 Democratic presidential field is wide-open, lacking a dominant front-runner. On August 3, 2026, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg stated he is "more inclined than not" to pursue the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, though no final decision has been made [^][^][^]. Prominent potential contenders include former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear [^][^][^][^]. One analysis identified Gavin Newsom as a frontrunner [^]. Polling for the nomination remains volatile, with different candidates leading in various surveys [^][^][^][^]. As of August 2026, no formal, major-party announcements for the 2028 nomination have occurred, although political figures such as Rahm Emanuel have begun preliminary activities in early primary states [^]. By August 2025, 39 Democratic candidates had filed with the Federal Election Commission for the 2028 election, though most are not considered high-profile contenders [^]. The 2028 Democratic primary process is considered a wide-open field, lacking an incumbent or a dominant front-runner, marking a contrast to previous cycles [^][^][^].
A new proposed 2028 Democratic primary calendar awaits DNC approval. In July 2026, the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) Rules and Bylaws Committee recommended a new 2028 primary calendar [^][^][^][^]. This recommendation is pending final approval by the full DNC in August 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The proposed calendar prioritizes South Carolina as the first state on January 22, followed by Nevada on February 1, New Hampshire on February 8, New Mexico on February 15, Michigan on February 22, and Virginia on February 29 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Super Tuesday is scheduled for March 7 [^][^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Technical analysis of this contract shows a complete absence of market activity. The price has remained static at 0.4% since the market's inception, with no discernible trend or volatility. There have been no price movements to analyze. Consequently, key events such as the August 3, 2026, statement from Pete Buttigieg regarding a potential 2028 run have had no impact on the contract's valuation.
Total traded volume is zero contracts. This indicates the market is entirely illiquid, with no participation from traders. Without any transactions, the current price is a nominal placeholder and does not reflect any consensus view or market conviction. No support or resistance levels have been established. The chart data does not provide any insight into market sentiment regarding Gavin Newsom's nomination prospects, as no sentiment has been expressed through trading.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to 'Yes' for a specific listed individual if that person becomes the Democratic Presidential Nominee for the 2028 election, and 'No' if they do not. The relevant date for this event is November 7, 2028. The provided content does not detail any special settlement conditions or specific sources for resolution.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | $0.19 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Jon Ossoff | $0.15 | $0.85 | 15% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.14 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Kamala Harris | $0.09 | $0.92 | 9% |
| Pete Buttigieg | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Josh Shapiro | $0.05 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Mark Kelly | $0.03 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Andy Beshear | $0.03 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Rahm Emanuel | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Jon Stewart | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Ro Khanna | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Wes Moore | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| James Talarico | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| J.B. Pritzker | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Michelle Obama | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Chelsea Clinton | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Bernie Sanders | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Hunter Biden | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Roy Cooper | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Chris Murphy | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Cory Booker | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Mark Cuban | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Oprah Winfrey | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Raphael Warnock | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| George Clooney | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Jasmine Crockett | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Liz Cheney | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Stephen A. Smith | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Zohran Mamdani | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| John Fetterman | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ruben Gallego | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Abigail Spanberger | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Alex Padilla | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Andrew Yang | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Barack Obama | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Beto O’Rourke | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Elissa Slotkin | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Gina Raimondo | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Graham Platner | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Hillary Clinton | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Jared Polis | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Kim Kardashian | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| LeBron James | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| MrBeast | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Phil Murphy | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Tim Walz | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Adam Schiff | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Hakeem Jeffries | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Josh Stein | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Other | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AA | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AB | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AC | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AD | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AE | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AF | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AG | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AH | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AI | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AJ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AK | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AL | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AM | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AN | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AO | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AP | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AQ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AR | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AS | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AT | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AU | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AV | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AW | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AX | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AY | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person AZ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BA | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BB | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BC | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BD | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BE | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BF | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BG | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BH | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BI | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BJ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BK | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BL | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BM | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BN | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BO | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BP | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BQ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BR | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BS | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BT | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BU | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BV | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BW | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BX | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BY | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person BZ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CA | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CB | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CC | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CD | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CE | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CF | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CG | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CH | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CI | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CJ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CK | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CL | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CM | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CN | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CO | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CP | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CQ | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CR | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person CS | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person V | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person W | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person X | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Y | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Person Z | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders in the "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" market largely consider Gavin Newsom (18.6%), Jon Ossoff (14.8%), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (14.3%) to be the leading contenders. However, no single candidate holds a strong majority, as even the top choice, Newsom, is seen as having less than a 19% chance of securing the nomination. This indicates a highly fractured field, with current Vice President Kamala Harris having significantly lower odds at 8.5% compared to the top three.
4. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Oprah WinfreyPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Gavin NewsomTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Pete ButtigiegTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Josh ShapiroTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Wes MooreTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Stephen A. SmithTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Kamala HarrisTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Gretchen WhitmerTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Andy BeshearTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Jon OssoffTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Mark CubanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
J.B. PritzkerTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Raphael WarnockTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Cory BookerTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Tim WalzTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Michelle ObamaTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Mark KellyTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Rahm EmanuelTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Gina RaimondoTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Zohran MamdaniTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Roy CooperTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
John FettermanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Jared PolisTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Jon StewartTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Barack ObamaTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Hillary ClintonTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Liz CheneyTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Bernie SandersTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Phil MurphyTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
LeBron JamesTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Hunter BidenTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
George ClooneyTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Chelsea ClintonTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
MrBeastTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Dwayne 'The Rock' JohnsonTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Andrew YangTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Beto O’RourkeTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Kim KardashianTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Chris MurphyTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Jasmine CrockettTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Ruben GallegoTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Ro KhannaTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
James TalaricoTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Graham PlatnerTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Abigail SpanbergerTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Hakeem JeffriesTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Elissa SlotkinTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Adam SchiffTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Josh SteinTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Alex PadillaTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Person VTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person WTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person XTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person YTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person ZTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AATrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person ABTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person ACTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person ADTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AETrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AFTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AGTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AHTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AITrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AJTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AKTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person ALTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AMTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person ANTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AOTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person APTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AQTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person ARTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person ASTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person ATTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AUTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AVTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AWTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AXTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AYTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person AZTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BATrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BBTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BCTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BDTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BETrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BFTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BGTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BHTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BITrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BJTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BKTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BLTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BMTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BNTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BOTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BPTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BQTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BRTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BSTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BTTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BUTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BVTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BWTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BXTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BYTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person BZTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CATrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CBTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CCTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CDTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CETrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CFTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CGTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CHTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CITrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CJTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CKTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CLTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CMTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CNTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person COTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CPTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CQTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CRTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Person CSTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
OtherTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 4, 2026
5. How will the DNC's proposed 2028 primary calendar, starting with South Carolina, influence the campaign viability and strategy of potential candidates like Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris?
| First 2028 Democratic primary state | South Carolina (January 22, 2028) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| DNC calendar approval date | July 24, 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Gavin Newsom's prediction market polling | Approximately 19-24% [^][^][^][^] |
The DNC established South Carolina as the initial 2028 primary state. On July 24, 2026, the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee approved a proposed 2028 primary calendar that designates South Carolina to host the first presidential primary on January 22, 2028 [^][^][^][^][^]. This decision underscores the DNC's emphasis on South Carolina's diverse electorate, particularly its substantial Black voter population. This demographic is viewed as a crucial indicator for assembling broad-based coalitions essential for success in the general election [^][^].
South Carolina's lead position could significantly influence candidate viability and strategy. The proposed primary calendar, commencing with South Carolina, is largely seen as a potential advantage for Kamala Harris, given her strong support within the state's considerable Black electorate [^][^][^]. Concurrently, Gavin Newsom emerges as a leading contender in current prediction markets for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, consistently polling between approximately 19% and 24% across various platforms, positioning him as competitive within this evolving primary structure [^][^][^][^].
6. What concrete evidence from fundraising reports and early polling (2025-2026) supports Gavin Newsom's status as a leading contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination?
| Prediction Market Implied Probability | 18% to 24% for 2028 Democratic nomination (August 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| New Donor Contributors | Over 100,000 in 2025 [^][^] |
| FEC Registration Status | No formal registration as 2028 presidential candidate (mid-2026) [^][^][^] |
Gavin Newsom is frequently identified as a leading 2028 Democratic contender. As of mid-2026, he is consistently listed in early polling and prediction markets alongside other prominent figures such as Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez [^][^][^]. Prediction markets, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt, place his implied probabilities of securing the nomination between 18% and 24% as of August 2026, positioning him among the frontrunners in betting odds [^][^][^][^][^][^]. His national profile-raising activities, such as campaigning for California's Proposition 50 in 2025, reportedly helped him acquire over 100,000 new contributors that year, providing a valuable list of potential donors [^][^].
Formal fundraising and declared candidacy evidence is currently absent. Despite his strong showing in early polls and prediction markets, there is no concrete evidence from 2025-2026 fundraising or polling that formally supports Newsom's status as a leading presidential contender [^][^][^]. His public focus remains on his gubernatorial duties in California. Federal Election Commission (FEC) records confirm no formal registration or financial filings from Gavin Newsom as a 2028 presidential candidate as of mid-2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, the FEC reported no contributions by political action committees (PACs) to any declared 2028 presidential candidates as of December 31, 2025 [^][^].
7. How do the executive records of Governors Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) and Andy Beshear (Kentucky) compare as models for a potential 2028 presidential campaign?
| Gretchen Whitmer 2028 Presidential Campaign Status | Ruled out as of August 4, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Gretchen Whitmer Gubernatorial Term End | 2026 [^] |
| Andy Beshear National Name Recognition | Approximately 7 in 10 Americans don't know enough about him [^] |
Gretchen Whitmer has ruled out a 2028 presidential campaign, while Andy Beshear remains a potential contender. As potential models for a 2028 presidential campaign, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer formally ruled out a run as of August 4, 2026 [^][^]. In contrast, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is actively considered a potential Democratic contender [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Despite Beshear's consideration, prediction markets as of mid-2026 show very low probabilities for both candidates to secure the 2028 Democratic nomination [^][^]. However, traders do view Beshear as a potential 'dark horse' candidate due to his documented electoral success in a red state [^][^].
Governor Whitmer's record highlights leadership in a swing state amidst legislative polarization. Gretchen Whitmer's executive record as Michigan Governor centered on leading a swing state, effectively managing infrastructure initiatives, and navigating a frequently polarized legislature [^]. Her tenure was notably defined by her approach to a divided or Republican-controlled legislature, where she utilized veto power to manage state budgets and policy [^]. She also led high-profile responses to crises, such as COVID-19, which garnered both public support and faced recall attempts [^]. Governor Whitmer is term-limited and is scheduled to leave office in 2026 [^].
Governor Beshear demonstrates a political model centered on bipartisanship in a red state. Andy Beshear's political model focuses on maintaining popularity in Kentucky, a state where the opposing party holds a massive voter registration advantage, by emphasizing an image as a healer and prioritizing economic development [^][^][^]. As a two-term governor of a deep-red state, he has successfully leveraged bipartisan wins, including Medicaid expansion and infrastructure projects, while also vetoing conservative social legislation [^][^][^][^]. Despite these achievements, polling from 2024 indicated that Beshear faces significant challenges with national name recognition, with approximately 7 in 10 Americans reporting they did not know enough about him to form an opinion [^].
8. What trends can be identified from Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings by undeclared potential 2028 candidates like Harris, Newsom, and Buttigieg through their PACs and other political committees?
| Gavin Newsom PAC funds | Over $4 million (mid-2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg PAC funds | Over $5 million (mid-2026) [^][^] |
| Kamala Harris DNC transfer | $600,000 (April 24, 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
Undeclared 2028 candidates use committees, delaying formal FEC campaign filings. Potential Democratic presidential contenders, including Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Pete Buttigieg, are actively building support and funding operations through existing political action committees (PACs) and established political committee infrastructure [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This strategic activity is characterized as a "midterm shadow campaign" primarily focused on the 2026 midterms, which has consequently led to a structural delay in the formal submission of FEC reports specifically designated for 2028 presidential campaigns [^][^][^][^].
Candidates maintain strong financial positions and engage in early political actions. As of mid-2026, Gavin Newsom's PAC holds over $4 million, while Pete Buttigieg's PAC possesses over $5 million, providing substantial resources for their exploratory activities [^][^]. Newsom had previously established a hybrid PAC in 2023 [^][^]. Buttigieg's former presidential campaign committee was converted into a PAC, and he remains engaged in national politics, including endorsing candidates in critical 2026 battleground races [^][^]. Kamala Harris also maintains an active political committee infrastructure, with the Harris Victory Fund consistently transferring significant funds to the Democratic National Committee, such as a recorded $600,000 transfer on April 24, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. This pre-declaration phase also involves travel to early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, and private outreach to various party factions, exemplified by Harris connecting with progressive leaders [^][^][^].
9. What is the viability of Pete Buttigieg's potential 2028 candidacy, based on his national profile and performance in the 2020 primary?
| Hypothetical 2028 Primary Support | 18-19% among likely voters [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2028 Prediction Market Probability | Below 10% (August 2026) [^][^][^] |
| 2020 Iowa Caucus Delegates | 14 projected [^] |
Pete Buttigieg's potential 2028 presidential candidacy presents conflicting viability signals. He frequently leads hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary polls, showing 18-19% support among likely voters in recent surveys [^][^][^][^]. However, prediction markets offer a different perspective, assigning him a relatively low probability of winning the 2028 Democratic nomination, often less than 10%, which places him behind other potential candidates like Gavin Newsom as of August 2026 [^][^][^]. Despite no official campaign announcements, Buttigieg is consistently recognized in media discussions as a potential 2028 candidate [^][^][^].
Buttigieg demonstrated significant early success during the 2020 Democratic primary campaign. He secured the most delegates in the Iowa caucuses, projected to earn 14 delegates, and tied for the most in New Hampshire [^][^][^][^][^]. Nationally, his campaign ultimately accumulated 26 delegates and 863,268 primary votes [^]. His campaign, which launched in April 2019 and included ten primary debates, concluded on March 1, 2020 [^]. He suspended his campaign prior to Super Tuesday, primarily due to an inability to build a broad and diverse coalition, particularly failing to gain traction with Black voters in South Carolina [^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) Rules and Bylaws Committee set a new early-state primary calendar for 2028 in July 2026. This proposed schedule places South Carolina first on January 22, 2028, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia [^][^][^][^]. The full DNC is scheduled to vote on this proposal in mid-August 2026 [^][^]. This upcoming vote represents a near-term catalyst for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election cycle, which is scheduled for November 7, 2028 [^].
As of August 2026, California Governor Gavin Newsom leads Democratic presidential nomination prediction markets, with odds generally ranging between 19% and 24% [^] [^] [^] [^] . Senator Jon Ossoff and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are also frequently cited contenders [^][^][^][^]. While nearly 200 candidates have filed with the FEC for the 2028 presidential cycle as of August 2025, no noteworthy presidential campaign announcements for the 2028 Democratic nomination have occurred at this time [^]. Prediction markets currently prioritize the 2026 midterm election cycle, which has reached approximately $200 million in settled contracts, over the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee [^]. The commencement of primary contests in January 2028 will serve as a subsequent catalyst [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: November 07, 2028
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Democratic National Committee (DNC) Rules and Bylaws Committee set a new early-state primary calendar for 2028 in July 2026.
- Trigger: This proposed schedule places South Carolina first on January 22, 2028, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The full DNC is scheduled to vote on this proposal in mid-August 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This upcoming vote represents a near-term catalyst for the 2028 U.S.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
