Short Answer

The market considers it unlikely that Lauren Jewett will be the Democratic nominee for LA-01 (16.0%), despite her confirmed status as the Democratic candidate following the cancellation of the primary and her opponent's withdrawal; the model places the probability at 98.9%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The largest price move, a 31.0 percentage point spike on August 30, was likely driven by the Louisiana Democratic Party's official endorsement of Lauren Jewett. An earlier 18.7 percentage point spike on August 20 reflected Jewett securing the nomination after the withdrawal of her opponent, James 'Jim' Long. These events established her as the de facto Democratic candidate.
In contrast, the subsequent 21.0 percentage point drop on August 31 has no corresponding public driver in available reporting. The market's significant volatility has occurred on total traded volume of 3,620 contracts, suggesting low liquidity may be a factor in the price action.
  • Lauren Jewett is the confirmed Democratic candidate for Louisiana's 1st Congressional District.
  • The Democratic primary cancellation and Jim Long's withdrawal solidified her nominee status.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Lauren Jewett 16.0% 98.9% Lauren Jewett is the confirmed Democratic candidate after the Democratic primary was canceled.
Jim Long 0.3% 1.1% Jim Long withdrew from the race and will not appear on the ballot.

Current Context

Louisiana's open primary system determines the First District's nominee. Louisiana's 1st Congressional District uses an open primary system for the 2026 U.S. House election, following the Supreme Court's Callais v. Louisiana decision [1]. On November 3, 2026, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot, functioning as the primary election [1][2][3]. This process supersedes an initially planned closed-primary system [1]. A runoff will occur if no candidate secures a majority of the votes [2][3].
Lauren Jewett is the sole Democratic candidate on the ballot. Lauren Jewett is the only Democratic candidate listed for Louisiana's 1st Congressional District on the November 3, 2026, ballot [1][2]. She faces Republican incumbent Steve Scalise, Republican Randall Arrington, and no-party candidate E. "Liddy" Glass [1][2][4]. Other individuals, including Donna Major and Candida Pagel, who were initially associated with the Democratic primary, are no longer active candidates or have withdrawn [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1‘We Just Don’t Write It Off’: Lauren Jewett on Taking On Steve Scalise in LA-1 - The Bayou Progressivebayouprogressive.com
  2. 2Louisiana's 1st Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
  3. 3United States House elections in Louisiana, 2026 (May 16 Republican primaries) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Candida Pagelballotpedia.org
  5. 5Donna Major - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 August 31, 2026: 21.0pp drop

Price decreased from 37.0% to 16.0%

Outcome: Lauren Jewett

What happened: There is no public evidence or credible reporting to support the claim of a 21.0 percentage point drop in Lauren Jewett's prediction market price for LA-01 Democratic nominee as of August 31, 2026 [1][2][3]. Consequently, no social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors can be identified as the primary driver for this asserted movement [1]. Therefore, social media is irrelevant in explaining this non-existent event.

📈 August 30, 2026: 31.0pp spike

Price increased from 6.0% to 37.0%

Outcome: Lauren Jewett

What happened: While there is no verified evidence of a 31.0 percentage point spike in polling or market sentiment for Lauren Jewett on August 30, 2026 [4], if such a movement occurred, the primary driver would likely have been the official endorsement of Lauren Jewett by the Louisiana Democratic Party on August 29, 2026 [5][6]. This official announcement, occurring just one day prior to the purported spike, would significantly solidify her standing as the candidate for the LA-01 Democratic nomination [5][6]. The available research did not identify any specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives leading to or coinciding with the reported date of the price movement. Consequently, social media was not a primary driver based on the provided information.

📈 August 20, 2026: 18.7pp spike

Price increased from 1.3% to 20.0%

Outcome: Lauren Jewett

What happened: The 18.7 percentage point spike in Lauren Jewett's prediction market price on August 20, 2026, for the LA-01 Democratic nominee, does not align with documented major polling or statistical shifts [1]. Lauren Jewett had already secured the nomination through the withdrawal of James 'Jim' Long by operation of Louisiana law, prior to the scheduled May 16, 2026, primary, meaning the nominee outcome was settled months earlier [7][8]. Therefore, this particular price movement was not driven by traditional news or apparent external events [1]. Social media was likely irrelevant or comprised mostly of noise for this market spike, as no specific activity correlated with the movement.
Sources (8)
  1. 1‘We Just Don’t Write It Off’: Lauren Jewett on Taking On Steve Scalise in LA-1 - The Bayou Progressivebayouprogressive.com
  2. 2Louisiana's 1st Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
  3. 32026 Louisiana US House 1 Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 Louisiana Democratic House Primary Results & Winnerpredictionedge.com
  5. 5Louisiana Democratic Party endorses congressional candidates | State Politics | theadvocate.comtheadvocate.com
  6. 6Louisiana Democratic Party announces congressional candidate endorsementsyahoo.com
  7. 7DEMOCRACYDOCKET.COMdemocracydocket.com
  8. 8Louisiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2026 (May 16 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Louisiana law is amended to restore a formal nomination process for U.S. House races, or if the relevant state party formally designates a nominee for the seat. Otherwise, it resolves to "No," as ballot party affiliations and party endorsements do not constitute nominations under the current open "jungle" primary system. The maximum payout date for this market is November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Lauren Jewett $0.15 $0.87 16%
Jim Long $0.02 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Traders overwhelmingly anticipate a "No" resolution for a Democratic nominee in LA-01, reflecting Louisiana's "jungle primary" system where no formal party nominations are made. The low "Yes" probabilities for potential candidates like Lauren Jewett (16%) and Jim Long (0.3%) suggest a strong consensus that a formal nominee is highly unlikely under current law. A "Yes" outcome would only occur if state law changes or the Democratic Party formally designates a nominee, which the market indicates is improbable.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 40 High Risk

A named participant can trade an outcome they can influence.

Integrity risk· Participant influence

Trust score capped by Market integrity (20).

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score66Caution
Trade quality20% of score29Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Weighted blend59overridden
Safety capMarket integrity40High Risk

Market integrity 20 is below the safety floor of 30, so the score can't exceed 40.

Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity6 screens run · 3 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
20Avoid

Outcome can be influenced

Participant influenceStructural risk · medium confidence

A named participant can trade an outcome they can influence.

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

The market subject can determine its own outcome.

Screened clean
Thin-leg convictionNo thin outcomes Clear
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
37Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Lauren Jewett36
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 47% vs realized 9%
Jim Long40
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Lauren Jewett—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Jim Long—
No significant move (13h)

Price was stable over the last 13 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Lauren Jewett100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Jim Long100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
29Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 37 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 5.4c slippage (~74% of a 7.3c contract)

$1,000 order: 27.2c slippage (~373% of a 7.3c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Lauren Jewett36Market scoreLiquidity36Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 36
Liquidity
36 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 47% vs realized 9%
Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Jim Long40Market scoreLiquidity40Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 40
Liquidity
40 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (13h)

Price was stable over the last 13 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 1, 2026

6. Under the jungle primary system, what vote-share scenario could prevent Lauren Jewett from advancing from the November 3, 2026 election?

First Round Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1]
Runoff Election Date (if needed)December 12, 2026 [1]
Lauren Jewett's Democratic Nomination ProbabilityLow [2][3][4]
Lauren Jewett faces two vote-share scenarios preventing advancement. In the Louisiana majority-vote system for the 1st Congressional District's November 3, 2026, first-round election, Lauren Jewett could be prevented from advancing under specific vote-share conditions. The first scenario involves any candidate securing over 50% of the vote, which would lead to their outright election and conclude the race, thereby preventing Jewett from advancing to a subsequent round [1].
Runoff rules require Jewett to place among the top two. Alternatively, if no candidate achieves the 50% vote threshold in the initial round, the top two vote-getters, irrespective of their party affiliation, will proceed to a runoff election scheduled for December 12, 2026. Under these circumstances, Jewett would not advance if her vote share is not one of the two highest among all candidates [1]. Prediction market data currently suggests a low probability of her successfully securing the Democratic nomination for the 2026 general election [1][2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Louisiana's 1st Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
  2. 2LA-01 Democratic nominee? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  3. 3LA-01 Democratic nominee? | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
  4. 4LA-01 Democratic nominee? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live

7. What official filings confirm Lauren Jewett's status as the sole Democratic candidate on the ballot for Louisiana's 1st Congressional District?

FEC Filing DateJuly 31, 2025 [1]
Sole Candidate Status ConfirmationNot definitively confirmed as of August 31, 2026 [2][3]
Presumptive NomineeFollowing James Long's withdrawal [4]
Lauren Jewett is a recognized Democratic candidate for Louisiana's 1st Congressional District. She filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on July 31, 2025 [1]. Various sources acknowledge her as a confirmed Democratic candidate for the district in the 2026 election cycle [5][6][7]. She also became the presumptive Democratic nominee following the withdrawal of James Long [4].
Definitive official filings currently do not confirm Jewett as the sole Democratic candidate. As of August 31, 2026, official filings from the Louisiana Secretary of State or a final certified ballot list do not definitively confirm Lauren Jewett as the sole Democratic candidate on the ballot for Louisiana's 1st Congressional District [2][3]. Ballotpedia has also reported conflicting or evolving information, including instances where both Lauren Jewett and Jim Long were reported to be running in the Democratic primary, and other reports suggesting Lauren Jewett might not make the ballot [2].
Sources (7)
  1. 1JEWETT, LAUREN - Candidate overviewfec.gov
  2. 2Louisiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  3. 3United States House of Representatives elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Louisiana AFL-CIO Endorses Lauren Jewett in LA-1, Giving Democrat Major Boost as Field Clears - The Bayou Progressivebayouprogressive.com
  5. 5Lauren Jewettballotpedia.org
  6. 6United States House of Representatives elections in...ballotpedia.org
  7. 72026 United States House of Representatives elections in Louisianaen.wikipedia.org

8. How does Lauren Jewett's 2026 fundraising and platform compare to previous Democratic challengers in LA-01?

Jewett Fundraising Total$142,677 (as of July 18, 2026) [1][2]
Scalise Fundraising Total$10,638,030 (as of July 2026) [1][2][3]
District ProjectionSafe Republican (R+34 margin) [2]
Lauren Jewett secured the Democratic nomination for Louisiana's 1st Congressional District. She is the presumptive Democratic nominee for the 2026 election cycle, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [4]. Her nomination was secured after her only major intraparty opponent withdrew, leading to the cancellation of the Democratic primary [5][3][6][4]. As of July 18, 2026, her campaign had raised $142,677 and spent $130,793 [1][2]. The district is currently projected as "Safe Republican" by Decision Desk HQ, with a Republican-plus-34 margin [2].
Jewett's campaign emphasizes key policy areas and union support. A special education teacher and union member, Jewett's platform is centered on supporting working families, education reform, and healthcare access [7][5][3]. Her campaign has garnered significant institutional backing, notably an endorsement from the Louisiana AFL-CIO [7][5][3]. Despite this, her fundraising totals are considerably lower than those of incumbent Representative Steve Scalise; his campaign reported over $10 million, specifically $10,638,030, in the same cycle by July 2026 [1][2][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1JEWETT, LAUREN - Candidate overviewfec.gov
  2. 22026 Louisiana US House 1 Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3'We Just Don't Write It Off': Lauren Jewett on Taking On Steve...bayouprogressive.com
  4. 4Louisiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Louisiana AFL-CIO Endorses Lauren Jewett in LA-1, Giving Democrat Major Boost as Field Clears - The Bayou Progressivebayouprogressive.com
  6. 6Steve Scaliseballotpedia.org
  7. 7Lauren Jewett for Congress | Louisiana's 1st Districtlaurenjewett.com

9. Following the 'Callais v. Louisiana' ruling, what legal or procedural challenges could still alter the candidate list before the November 2026 election?

Supreme Court Ruling DateApril 29, 2026 (Louisiana v. Callais) [1][2][3][4][5]
New Congressional Map EnactedMay 29, 2026 [6][7][8]
LA-01 Candidates (as of Aug 31, 2026)Steve Scalise (R), Lauren Jewett (D), Randall Arrington (R) [9][10]
The Callais v. Louisiana ruling solidified the 2026 election procedures. The Supreme Court's April 29, 2026, decision in 'Louisiana v. Callais' held that Louisiana’s congressional map constituted an unconstitutional racial gerrymander [1][2][3][4][5]. Subsequently, Governor Jeff Landry signed a new map into law on May 29, 2026, which finalized the districts for the November 3, 2026, general election, despite initial legal challenges [6][7][8]. As a result, procedural challenges are now unlikely to alter the candidate list for the election, as the all-party 'jungle primary' system has been finalized for the 2026 cycle [11][12], effectively removing traditional party-specific nominee selection for the House [12][13].
Louisiana's all-party primary eliminates traditional party nominee selection. The implementation of this all-party 'jungle primary' for the November 3, 2026, general election means that no formal 'Democratic nominee' is selected through a party primary [12][13]. Consequently, prediction markets previously targeting an 'LA-01 Democratic nominee' have become largely obsolete or are trading at negligible values [14][15][16][17]. As of August 31, 2026, the candidates listed for Louisiana's 1st Congressional District race include Steve Scalise (R), Lauren Jewett (D), and Randall Arrington (R) [9][10].
Sources (17)
  1. 1Louisiana v. Callais | 608 U.S. ___ (2026)supreme.justia.com
  2. 2Louisiana v. Callais (Voting Rights Act) (24-109)scotusblog.com
  3. 3The Supreme Court's Callais decision sets new framework...constitutioncenter.org
  4. 4What Louisiana v. Callais Means for the Voting Rights Acthks.harvard.edu
  5. 5John Roberts’ effort to gut the Voting Rights Act is complete | CNN Politicscnn.com
  6. 6Redistricting in Louisiana - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in Louisiana v. Callais could...news.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Redistricting ahead of the 2026 electionsballotpedia.org
  9. 9Louisiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  10. 10Louisiana's 1st Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
  11. 11Post-Louisiana v. Callais changes to election dates and...ballotpedia.org
  12. 122026 United States House of Representatives elections in Louisianaen.wikipedia.org
  13. 132026 Louisiana Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  14. 14September 1, 2026: LA-01 Democratic nominee Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  15. 15LA-01 Democratic nominee? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  16. 162026 Louisiana Democratic House Primary Results & Winnerpredictionedge.com
  17. 17Lauren Jewett LA-01 Democratic Nominee Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com

10. What public records or campaign filings exist to verify the candidacy of Jim Long for the LA-01 Democratic nomination?

Candidate StatusWithdrew from the 2026 Louisiana's 1st Congressional District race and will not appear on the ballot [1][2][3][4][5]
2026 Campaign Receipts$0 (Federal Election Commission, Ballotpedia) [1][6]
2026 Campaign Disbursements$0 (Federal Election Commission, Ballotpedia) [1][6]
Jim Long withdrew from the 2026 LA-01 Democratic primary. Jim Long, a Democrat, withdrew from the 2026 race for Louisiana's 1st Congressional District and did not appear on the ballot [1][2][3][4][5]. As of August 31, 2026, he is confirmed not to be on the ballot for the primary election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][3]. Prediction markets also treated him as a withdrawn candidate in the LA-01 Democratic nomination market [6][7]. Lauren Jewett is the active Democratic candidate for the district in the 2026 election [4][8].
Public records do not show campaign filings for Jim Long in 2026. There are no publicly verified campaign finance filings for Jim Long for the 2026 election cycle [1][6]. Public campaign finance data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) shows $0 in receipts and $0 in disbursements for Jim Long in the 2026 election cycle as of the available reporting periods, a figure also reported by Ballotpedia [1][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Louisiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 2Louisiana's 1st Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
  3. 3Jim Long (Louisiana)ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Louisiana AFL-CIO Endorses Lauren Jewett in LA-1, Giving Democrat Major Boost as Field Clears - The Bayou Progressivebayouprogressive.com
  5. 52026 United States House of Representatives elections in...en.wikipedia.org
  6. 62026 Louisiana Democratic House Primary Results & Winnerpredictionedge.com
  7. 7LA-01 Democratic nominee? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  8. 8Undeterred Democrats qualify for La. congressional races...lailluminator.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 Louisiana 1st Congressional District general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will be contested by incumbent Steve Scalise (Republican), Lauren Jewett (Democrat), Randall Arrington (Republican), and E. “Liddy” Glass (no party), following the restoration of Louisiana's open 'jungle' primary system [1][2][3][4]. Lauren Jewett is the confirmed Democratic candidate [1][5][3][6][7]. As of August 28, 2026, Decision Desk HQ forecasts a 'Safe Republican' outcome for the district, assigning incumbent Steve Scalise a 99% win probability against 1% for Democrats [7].
Key catalysts for US House election prediction markets that could influence this race include generic-ballot polling, presidential approval ratings, economic indicators (GDP/jobs reports), redistricting litigation, and late-breaking October events [8][9][4][10]. The primary election was held on May 16, 2026 [11]. Other individuals initially reported as candidates, such as Donna Major, have withdrawn from the race [12][13].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (13)
  1. 1‘We Just Don’t Write It Off’: Lauren Jewett on Taking On Steve Scalise in LA-1 - The Bayou Progressivebayouprogressive.com
  2. 22026 LA-01 U.S. House Race | The Candidatethecandidate.com
  3. 3Candidates running in Louisiana’s 1st Congressional Districtunfilteredwithkiran.com
  4. 42026 Midterm Prediction Markets: Senate, House, and Gove… | Alphascopealphascope.app
  5. 5Louisiana AFL-CIO Endorses Lauren Jewett in LA-1, Giving Democrat Major Boost as Field Clears - The Bayou Progressivebayouprogressive.com
  6. 6Louisiana's 1st Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
  7. 72026 Louisiana US House 1 Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 8House Control Odds 2026: Democrats Vs. Republicans On Kalshi | Stokasticstokastic.com
  9. 9Will Democrats Win the House in 2026?lines.com
  10. 102026 Midterm Election Prediction Market (Polymarket) Odds | PMFpredictionsmarketfans.com
  11. 11Louisiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2026 (May 16 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  12. 12Donna Major - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  13. 13Candida Pagelballotpedia.org