2028 Democratic VP nominee
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~100d): Elissa Slotkin's model probability surged +5.6pp, widening the edge, driven by model conviction.
- Ro Khanna's model probability gained +4.1pp, widening the edge, led by model increases.
- Josh Shapiro's market probability fell -3.0pp, widening the edge, primarily market-led.
- Model confidence rose +1.0pp as headline probability increased +1.9pp.
- Gretchen Whitmer leads the field but has publicly stated disinterest in the role.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg appear as top contenders in prediction markets.
- Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are unlikely VP picks due to their presidential aspirations.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8.5% | 10.1% | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a top contender for VP in prediction markets, showing strong party recognition. |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 9.7% | 9.7% | Gretchen Whitmer publicly stated disinterest in the VP role and previously declined a presidential bid. |
| Gavin Newsom | 6.0% | 5.8% | Gavin Newsom is a primary frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reducing his VP likelihood. |
| Andy Beshear | 6.4% | 7.1% | Andy Beshear appears in top listings for the VP nomination in prediction markets. |
| Kamala Harris | 1.4% | 1.2% | Kamala Harris consistently leads polling for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. |
Current Context
Sources (16)
- 1Bettors already placing wagers on 2028 Dem choice for VP. But some picks are eyeing top of ticket - silive.comsilive.com
- 22028 Democratic VP nominee Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 3Elections Presidential Predictionsrobinhood.com
- 4Almost 200 candidates have filed to run in the 2028 presidential election - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 5Presidential candidates, 2028ballotpedia.org
- 6List of registered 2028 presidential candidatesballotpedia.org
- 72028 Democratic power rankings, right nowaxios.com
- 8What’s changed about the 2028 Democratic presidential field? Kamala Harris | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 9Kamala Harris keeps Democrats guessing about 2028yahoo.com
- 10AOC, Ossof Trail Newsome in 2028 Dems Presidential Candidate Raceactionnetwork.com
- 11Presidential election, 2028ballotpedia.org
- 12Timeline of the 2028 United States presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
- 13Democratic National Committee set to take key vote towards determining its 2028 presidential calendar - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 14DNC announces frontrunner cities and date for 2028 convention, will not hold midterm convention - CBS Newscbsnews.com
- 15Changes to the 2028 Democratic presidential primary...ballotpedia.org
- 16Democratic National Committee announces proposed early states for 2028 Democratic presidential calendar - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided content, the exact triggers for a YES or NO resolution are not specified; the market generally concerns who will be the 2028 Democratic VP nominee. The key deadline is the maximum payout date, which is November 7, 2028. No other special settlement conditions or additional dates are mentioned.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gretchen Whitmer | $0.10 | $0.90 | 10% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.09 | $0.93 | 9% |
| Pete Buttigieg | $0.08 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Andy Beshear | $0.07 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Elissa Slotkin | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Gavin Newsom | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Wes Moore | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Jon Ossoff | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Mark Kelly | $0.05 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Josh Shapiro | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Ruben Gallego | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| James Talarico | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Raphael Warnock | $0.03 | $0.97 | 3% |
| J.B. Pritzker | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Roy Cooper | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Ro Khanna | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Michelle Obama | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Kamala Harris | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Amy Klobuchar | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Andrew Yang | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Barack Obama | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Bernie Sanders | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Beto O'Rourke | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Chris Murphy | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Cory Booker | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Dwayne Johnson | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Elizabeth Warren | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Gina Raimondo | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Graham Platner | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Hillary Clinton | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Hunter Biden | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jamie Dimon | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jared Polis | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jasmine Crockett | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jon Stewart | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Lebron James | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Liz Cheney | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Phil Murphy | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Rahm Emanuel | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Zohran Mamdani | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| John Fetterman | $0.00 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tim Walz | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Mark Cuban | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Tony Evers | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of August 2026, prediction markets for the 2028 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee are active, with traders speculating on candidates such as Ro Khanna, JB Pritzker, Jared Polis, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Gretchen Whitmer [1]. There is significant overlap, as many of these figures are also considered contenders for the presidential nomination [1][2]. The 2028 Democratic primary field is widely described as open and uncertain, lacking a clear frontrunner [3][4], and consequently, no Democratic vice-presidential nominee has been selected due to the absence of a presumptive presidential nominee [5].
Sources (5)
- 1Bettors already placing wagers on 2028 Dem choice for VP. But some picks are eyeing top of ticket - silive.comsilive.com
- 2AOC, Ossof Trail Newsome in 2028 Dems Presidential Candidate Raceactionnetwork.com
- 32028 Democratic power rankings, right nowaxios.com
- 4The 2028 Democratic presidential primary has no...facebook.com
- 5Almost 200 candidates have filed to run in the 2028 presidential election - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
4. Trust Index
A named participant can trade an outcome they can influence.
Integrity risk· Participant influence
Trust score capped by Market integrity (20).
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Market integrity 20 is below the safety floor of 30, so the score can't exceed 40.
5. Which key endorsements or primary outcomes in early 2028 are most likely to influence the VP selection calculus for frontrunners like Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris?
| Primary VP Selection Influence 1 | Influential endorsements in early 2028 [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Primary VP Selection Influence 2 | Outcomes of early primary states [1][2][3][4][5] |
| DNC Early Primary Proposal Date | July 24, 2026 (for six early primary states) [4] |
Sources (6)
- 1Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom neck-and-neck in new...fairvote.org
- 2Democratic presidential contenders test the waters during...opensecrets.org
- 3Harris, Newsom, Democrats aren't trying to hide their...thehill.com
- 4Democratic National Committee announces proposed early states for 2028 Democratic presidential calendar - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 5What polling shows about the top VP contenders for Kamala Harris | The Associated Pressap.org
- 6Presidential election endorsements, 2020 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
6. What evidence from her gubernatorial record and national fundraising profile supports Gretchen Whitmer's position as a top-tier contender for the 2028 VP nomination?
| 2018 Gubernatorial Election | 53.3% of the vote [1] |
|---|---|
| 2022 Gubernatorial Re-election | 54.5% of the vote [1] |
| World Economic Forum | 2026 participation [2] |
Sources (8)
- 1Gretchen Whitmer recall, Governor of Michigan (2024)ballotpedia.org
- 2Prediction Markets Undecided for Democratic VP Nominee in 2028federalnewsnetwork.com
- 3Prediction Edge | Election Market Intelligencepredictionedge.com
- 4Gretchen Whitmer rules out 2028 presidential run despite...foxnews.com
- 5Gretchen Whitmeren.wikipedia.org
- 6Ranking the top 2028 Democratic contendersthehill.com
- 7Who do Democrats and Republicans want as their 2028...yougov.com
- 8Democratic presidential nomination, 2024ballotpedia.org
7. How do potential candidates Josh Shapiro and Wes Moore compare in their appeal to moderate and swing-state voters ahead of the 2028 election cycle?
| Shapiro's 2022 Moderate Vote Share | Won moderates by 40 points (2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Moore's 2026 Nomination Status | Secured party's nomination for 2026 (Maryland gubernatorial election) [3] |
| 2028 VP Nominee Prediction Market | Neither Shapiro nor Moore currently established as clear favorites (mid-2024 prediction markets) [4][5][6][7] |
Sources (16)
- 1United States Senate elections, 2022ballotpedia.org
- 2Pennsylvania gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 32026 Maryland Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 4Prediction Markets Undecided for Democratic VP Nominee in 2028federalnewsnetwork.com
- 5Prediction Edge | Election Market Intelligencepredictionedge.com
- 6veykos · Terminalveykos.com
- 7Elections | Prediction Markets | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 8Gov. Josh Shapiro's re-election campaign starts with 2028...inquirer.com
- 9Why a Pennsylvania blowout could be Josh Shapiro's ticket...ms.now
- 10Josh Shapiro tests political muscle in swing-state PA...whyy.org
- 11No Democratic Bench? Josh Shapiro and Wes Moore Are...politico.com
- 12The Candidates Warming Up for the 2028 Democratic Primaries—and Who’s Already Got a Head Startthedailybeast.com
- 13As Gov. Moore maintains a 2028 White House run is out...foxbaltimore.com
- 14Gov. Josh Shapiro joins several 2028 presidential hopefuls...6abc.com
- 15What polling shows about the top VP contenders for Kamala Harris | The Associated Pressap.org
- 16Election 2022 Gubernatorial Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
8. Based on betting market data and fundraising reports through 2026, what is the market consensus on J.B. Pritzker's viability as a potential VP nominee?
| Max 2028 VP Nominee Probability | 13.6% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Pritzker 2028 Presidential Polls | 1% to 7% [3][4][5][6] |
| Pritzker PAC Contribution (Dec 2025) | $5,000,000 [7][8][9] |
Sources (14)
- 1Prediction Markets Undecided for Democratic VP Nominee in 2028federalnewsnetwork.com
- 2https://polymarket.copilot.markets/predictions/democraticpolymarket.copilot.markets
- 3Pritzker for president? Handicapping the Illinois governor's...wbez.org
- 4Pritzker flexes political muscle with Stratton victory amid...thehill.com
- 5Pritzker set to kick off reelection bid amid presidential talknbcchicago.com
- 6Gov. JB Pritzker said he will be “more involved than ever...facebook.com
- 7FEC Disclosure Form 3X for Illinois Future PACdocquery.fec.gov
- 8Schedule A for ALL Line #'sdocquery.fec.gov
- 9Schedule A for Line #11AIdocquery.fec.gov
- 10Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 · Jon Stewart 95% — Opinion oddspdata.world
- 11Prediction Edge | Election Market Intelligencepredictionedge.com
- 12Presidential candidates, 2028ballotpedia.org
- 13Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
- 14Gubernatorial elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
9. What historical precedents since the 2000 election inform how a presumptive 2028 Democratic nominee might use their VP pick to balance the ticket?
| Democratic VP selection shift | From traditional balancing to a 'partnership model' focused on governing ability since 2000 [1] |
|---|---|
| Modern Democratic VP emphasis | Demographic representation and addressing generational profile weaknesses [2] |
| VP pick impact on elections | Generally do not significantly 'move the needle' [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1Vice presidential candidates, 2020ballotpedia.org
- 2Veepstakes have evolved from where you live to who you arekentuckylantern.com
- 3Historically, vice presidential picks have not moved the needle...facebook.com
- 4Kerry Camp Sees Edwards Helping With Rural Voteuselectionatlas.org
- 5Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing - August 11, 2020 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 07, 2028
- Closes: November 07, 2028
Sources (16)
- 12028 Democratic VP nominee Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 2Elections Presidential Predictionsrobinhood.com
- 3Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Predictions & Oddspolymarket.com
- 4ElectionMarkets - Live Prediction Market Dataelection.markets
- 5Almost 200 candidates have filed to run in the 2028 presidential election - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 6PredictIt markets in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaryballotpedia.org
- 7Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 8FEC | Candidate | Public funding and vice presidential candidatesfec.gov
- 92028 Presidential Election Timeline: Primary Calendar, Filing Deadlines, Convention Dates | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com
- 10Overview of the presidential election process | USAGovusa.gov
- 11Democratic National Committee announces proposed...news.ballotpedia.org
- 12Democratic National Committee announces proposed...news.ballotpedia.org
- 13Democrats could take preliminary vote on their 2028... - AP.orgap.org
- 142028 Presidential Election Odds & Analysis | Prediction Geniuspredictiongenius.io
- 15Presidential Election Prediction Markets: How to Trade 2028 Politics on Polymarket | Polymarket Viewpolymarkettrader.com
- 16Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com