Gavin Newsom
Market Model 17.0% 17.5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 15.0% 14.5%
2028 Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (16)
Marco Rubio
Market Model 16.0% 18.9%
Jon Ossoff
Market Model 10.0% 10.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 61.0% 52.0%
Kamala Harris
Market Model 76.0% 68.6%
2028 Republican VP nominee Kalshi
Marco Rubio
Market Model 28.0% 37.2%
J.D. Vance
Market Model 6.7% 4.8%
2028 Democratic VP nominee Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 8.5% 10.1%
Gretchen Whitmer
Market Model 9.7% 9.7%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 26.0% 25.2%
Tucker Carlson
Market Model 3.1% 3.6%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 47.0% 43.1%
Democratic Sweep
Market Model 41.0% 34.2%
Republican Sweep
Market Model 28.0% 20.6%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Market Model 34.0% 21.3%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 66.0% 61.8%
Yes
Market Model 92.5% 96.6%
Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 42.0% 34.8%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 9.0% 7.6%
Yes
Market Model 53.0% 58.9%
Before Election Day
Market Model 25.0% 16.9%
Before 2028
Market Model 14.0% 9.4%
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance
Market Model 12.0% 10.1%
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
Market Model 12.0% 17.2%
Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 5.0% 8.1%
Jon Ossoff and Andy Beshear
Market Model 4.0% 6.5%
Republican party
Market Model 37.0% 36.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 62.0% 63.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Top outcome: Gavin Newsom | 17.0% | 17.5% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 16.0% | 18.9% | High | 84 | Refresh |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? Top outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 61.0% | 52.0% | Med | 86 | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican VP nominee Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 28.0% | 37.2% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic VP nominee Top outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8.5% | 10.1% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 26.0% | 25.2% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
| When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.0% | 5.2% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| 2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate? Top outcome: Democratic Sweep | 41.0% | 34.2% | High | 85 | Refresh |
| Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Top outcome: Marjorie Taylor Greene | 34.0% | 21.3% | Med | 82 | Refresh |
| Will the 2028 presidential election occur? Yes refers to: In 2028 | 92.5% | 96.6% | Med | 87 | Refresh |
| When will Marco Rubio announce his presidential candidacy? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2027 | 42.0% | 34.8% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
| Will Rubio and Vance run for President? Yes refers to: JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican | 53.0% | 58.9% | Med | 84 | Refresh |
| Will Trump run for a third term? Top outcome: Before Election Day | 25.0% | 16.9% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| 2028 Presidential race: exact outcome Top outcome: Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance | 12.0% | 10.1% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic Presidential ticket Top outcome: Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 5.0% | 8.1% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) Top outcome: Republican party | 37.0% | 36.2% | High | 86 | Refresh |
