Alaska Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Mary Peltola
Market Model 0.1% 0.2%
Bernadette Wilson
Market Model 26.0% 35.3%
US Election Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (21)
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Mary Peltola
Market Model 63.0% 74.8%
Sen. Dan Sullivan
Market Model 35.0% 24.8%
Los Angeles Mayoral Election Polymarket
Spencer Pratt
Market Model 0.0% 32.8%
Lindsey Horvath
Market Model 0.0% 32.8%
California Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Tom Steyer
Market Model 0.1% 0.0%
Steve Hilton
Market Model 4.8% 3.0%
Presidential Election Winner 2028 Polymarket
LeBron James
Market Model 0.1% 0.4%
Tim Walz
Market Model 0.1% 40.0%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket
Byron Donalds
Market Model 0.4% 0.5%
Mike Pence
Market Model 0.2% 50.0%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket
Oprah Winfrey
Market Model 0.3% 0.4%
Bernie Sanders
Market Model 0.4% 0.5%
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Ashley Hinson (R)
Market Model 60.0% 64.2%
Josh Turek (D)
Market Model 39.0% 35.7%
220-224
Market Model 3.9% 2.8%
205-209
Market Model 11.1% 13.6%
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Tom Tiffany (R)
Market Model 23.0% 27.9%
David Crowley (D)
Market Model 78.0% 72.1%
No Shutdown & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
No Shutdown & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Market Model 59.0% 51.8%
Mike Rogers (R)
Market Model 40.0% 48.2%
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Ken Paxton (R)
Market Model 52.0% 49.0%
James Talarico (D)
Market Model 50.0% 51.0%
28–29
Market Model 3.0% 2.3%
<22
Market Model 18.0% 24.1%
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Troy Jackson (D)
Market Model 69.0% 62.9%
Susan Collins (R)
Market Model 32.0% 37.0%
Republican
Market Model 41.0% 35.7%
Democratic
Market Model 60.0% 64.2%
54
Market Model 4.1% 3.0%
52
Market Model 12.7% 11.7%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 46.0% 41.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 55.0% 58.4%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket
Democrats Sweep
Market Model 46.0% 38.8%
Republicans Sweep
Market Model 13.0% 9.0%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 87.0% 88.4%
Republican Party
Market Model 14.0% 11.6%
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Republican
Market Model 89.0% 91.3%
Democrat
Market Model 10.0% 8.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 0.1% | 0.2% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 63.0% | 74.8% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| Los Angeles Mayoral Election Top outcome: Spencer Pratt | 0.0% | 32.8% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| California Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Tom Steyer | 0.1% | 0.0% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 Top outcome: LeBron James | 0.1% | 0.4% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Byron Donalds | 0.4% | 0.5% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Oprah Winfrey | 0.3% | 0.4% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Ashley Hinson (R) | 60.0% | 64.2% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 220-224 | 3.9% | 2.8% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Tom Tiffany (R) | 23.0% | 27.9% | High | 60 | Refresh |
| Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: No Shutdown & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 59.0% | 51.8% | High | 63 | Refresh |
| Texas Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Ken Paxton (R) | 52.0% | 49.0% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 28–29 | 3.0% | 2.3% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Maine Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Troy Jackson (D) | 69.0% | 62.9% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? Top outcome: Republican | 41.0% | 35.7% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 54 | 4.1% | 3.0% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 46.0% | 41.6% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Top outcome: Democrats Sweep | 46.0% | 38.8% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 87.0% | 88.4% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Florida Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Republican | 89.0% | 91.3% | High | — | Refresh |
Expired Markets (12)
Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Polymarket
Extended & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Extended & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
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Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
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| ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: Extended & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | 77 | |
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