Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Troy Jackson (D) to win the Maine Senate Election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price has been stable, trading within an extremely narrow two-point range between 66.5% and 68.5%. The contract opened at a 67.5% probability for a Democratic victory and has since moved to 68.5%. The overall trend is flat. There have been no significant price spikes or drops to analyze, as the price action shows minimal volatility. The minor upward drift is not attributable to any specific news event given the market's activity level.
Total traded volume is zero. This is the most salient feature of the market. The absence of any trading indicates a complete lack of market conviction or participation. The price chart reflects initial odds or algorithmic adjustments from a market maker, not a consensus formed through buying and selling. Without trading activity, it is not possible to identify meaningful support or resistance levels.
The stable, high probability suggests the market opened with a strong baseline expectation of a Democratic win. However, this sentiment remains entirely untested. The price reflects a static assessment rather than an active, evolving view from market participants. The chart does not provide a useful signal about market sentiment beyond its initial setting.
  • Troy Jackson (D) leads in a race widely rated as a "Toss-up."
  • Susan Collins (R) holds a significant Q3 2026 financial advantage, $6.7 million cash.
  • Jackson's late nomination caused internal party friction and a compressed timeline.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Troy Jackson (D) 69.0% 62.9% The race is widely rated as a 'Toss-up' by election forecasters, indicating a highly competitive environment.
Susan Collins (R) 32.0% 37.0% Incumbent Susan Collins holds a significant financial advantage, with $6.7 million cash on hand.
Other 0.0% 62.9% Outside deterministic model scope.
Person A 0.0% 62.9% Outside deterministic model scope.
Person B 0.0% 62.9% Outside deterministic model scope.

Current Context

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine is set for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. Republican incumbent Susan Collins faces Democratic nominee Troy Jackson [1][3][6]. The original Democratic nominee, Graham Platner, withdrew from the race on July 10, 2026, following sexual assault allegations, which he denies [2][7][8][9][10]. The Maine Democratic Party subsequently held a nominating convention on July 25, 2026 [2][10][5][11]. There, former state Senate president Troy Jackson was selected as the replacement nominee, defeating Saundra Pelletier 566 to 5 votes [3][6]. Jackson is the first replacement nominee for the U.S. Senate in Maine since 1918 [6].
Analysts rate the Maine Senate race as highly competitive. As of late July 2026, The Cook Political Report, DDHQ/The Hill, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the race as a Toss-up [3][10]. Inside Elections rated it Tilt Republican [3][10]. The election uses ranked-choice voting [4][5]. This contest is the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election in a state won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election [3].
Sources (11)
  1. 1United States Senate election in Maine, 2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 2Maine Democrats to pick US Senate nominee to replace Graham Platner | AP Newsapnews.com
  3. 3Collins and Jackson to face off for the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election this year in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 United States Senate election in Maineen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Troy Jackson wins the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. Susan Collins | WBUR Newswbur.org
  6. 6Troy Jackson becomes the first replacement nominee for the U.S. Senate in Maine since 1918 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Graham Platner formally withdraws from Maine Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
  8. 8Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate racenbcnews.com
  9. 9Maine Democrat Platner to drop Senate bid after sex assault claim | AP Newsapnews.com
  10. 10Troy Jackson wins Democratic nomination for U.S. Senatebangordailynews.com
  11. 11United States Senate election in Maine, 2026 (July 25...ballotpedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves "Yes" for the candidate who wins the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs, and "No" for all other candidates. Resolution is triggered when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC unanimously call the race for the same candidate; absent such consensus, the official certification determines the outcome. The market's end date for resolution is November 3, 2026, and only official party nominees are encompassed by party options, excluding independents.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Troy Jackson (D) $0.69 $0.32 69%
Susan Collins (R) $0.33 $0.68 32%
Other $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person A $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person B $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person C $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person D $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person E $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person F $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person G $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person H $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person I $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person J $1.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Traders predominantly anticipate a Democratic victory in the Maine Senate election, with Troy Jackson currently holding 69% odds. This sentiment strengthened significantly following Jackson's nomination, which unified Democratic support after the withdrawal of his predecessor, and is bolstered by his established name recognition and recent polling showing him ahead or tied with the incumbent. While Senator Susan Collins faces headwinds in a low-turnout midterm, analysts still rate the race as a toss-up or slightly Republican-leaning, indicating a potentially closer contest than the market currently reflects.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 76 Good

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Integrity risk· Outcome control

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good

Resolution quality is low (60), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score66Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score76Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 4 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Screened clean
Participant influenceNo conflicted participant detected. Clear
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
67Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first · 11 settled or closed — not scored

Troy Jackson (D)65
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Susan Collins (R)74
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first · 11 settled or closed — not scored

Troy Jackson (D)—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Susan Collins (R)—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 11 settled or closed — not scored

Troy Jackson (D)95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Susan Collins (R)95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
66Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 67 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 69.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.7c slippage (~1% of a 69.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.4c slippage (~2% of a 69.5c contract)

11 settled or closed — not scored

Troy Jackson (D)65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Susan Collins (R)74Market scoreLiquidity74Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 74
Liquidity
74 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 20, 2026

5. How do Susan Collins' and Troy Jackson's policy positions align with the key priorities of Maine voters for the 2026 election?

Top Voter PrioritiesEconomic concerns, cost of living (housing, property taxes, energy costs), healthcare accessibility, and age/political alignment of incumbent Susan Collins [1][2][3]
Susan Collins Campaign FocusRecord of independence, bipartisan legislative accomplishments (e.g., Paycheck Protection Program), and experience in office [4]
Troy Jackson Campaign FocusBackground as a logger and legislative experience [5]
Maine voters prioritize economic concerns and healthcare accessibility for the 2026 election. Key issues include the cost of living, encompassing housing, property taxes, and energy costs, alongside access to healthcare [1][2][3]. Additionally, voters consider the age and political alignment of incumbent Susan Collins [1][2][3]. Collins' re-election campaign emphasizes her record of independence, bipartisan legislative achievements such as the Paycheck Protection Program, and her extensive experience in office [4]. In contrast, Troy Jackson's campaign highlights his background as a logger and his legislative experience [5].
Susan Collins aligns her campaign with economic and political priorities. Her campaign positions highlight bipartisan legislative accomplishments, such as the Paycheck Protection Program, which directly addresses voter economic concerns [4]. By emphasizing her record of independence and bipartisan efforts, Collins also aims to address voter considerations regarding her political alignment [4]. Furthermore, Collins has publicly expressed support for a temporary halt to routine ICE traffic stops [6].
Troy Jackson's campaign focuses on his background and legislative experience. His primary campaign emphasis is on his experience as a logger and his legislative career [5]. While specific 2026 platform comparisons are still developing due to his recent entry into the race, recent discussions within the Maine Senate, where Jackson has served, have encompassed issues identified as key voter priorities, including economic challenges, healthcare, and housing [4][1][2][3]. The provided information does not offer further specific policy positions for Troy Jackson that directly align with the detailed priorities of Maine voters beyond this general discourse.
Sources (6)
  1. 1A guide to election polls. And what the latest ones in Maine...themainemonitor.org
  2. 2Governor - Democratic Primary | Voter Guidemainemorningstar.com
  3. 3Graham Platner Allegations Impact Maine Senate Predictionsactionnetwork.com
  4. 4Platner clinches Democratic nomination for US Senate in Maineap.org
  5. 5Troy Jackson gains momentum to replace Platner as... - AP.orgap.org
  6. 6US Bombs Persian Gulf Supertanker, Warsh: Trump Hasn't Interfered | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com

6. What do the Q3 and Q4 2026 FEC filings reveal about the fundraising momentum and financial health of the Collins and Jackson campaigns?

Collins Q3 2026 Fundraising$1.9 million (Q3 2026) [1][2]
Collins Q3 2026 Cash on Hand$6.7 million (Q3 2026) [1][2]
Jackson NominationLate July 2026, leading to compressed campaign (as of early August 2026) [3][4]
As of early August 2026, comprehensive financial health and fundraising momentum data from the Q3 (July-September) and Q4 (October-December) 2026 FEC filings were largely unavailable for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine [5]. Despite this general unavailability, Republican Senator Susan Collins reported a strong third quarter for 2026, raising $1.9 million and concluding the period with $6.7 million in cash on hand [1][2].
For Democratic nominee Troy Jackson, specific fundraising and financial health details from Q3 and Q4 2026 FEC filings are not available in the provided information. Jackson became the Democratic nominee in late July 2026, following the establishment of his exploratory committee on July 7, 2026 [3][6]. This late nomination results in a significantly compressed general election campaign period for him [3][4].
Incumbent Senator Collins is expected to be very well-funded for her campaign [7]. A late July 2026 forecast by Decision Desk HQ indicated a narrow favor for Collins, with campaign financial advantage contributing to 66% of the forecast fundamentals [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Takeaways from a big FEC filing daypunchbowl.news
  2. 2We're getting another look at congressional candidates'...politico.com
  3. 3Troy Jackson replaces Platner as Maine Senate Democratic nomineecryptobriefing.com
  4. 4Maine Democrats Still Favored in Senate Race Despite Latest Platner Crisisactionnetwork.com
  5. 5FEC | Dates and deadlines | 2026 Quarterly filersfec.gov
  6. 6Form 1 for Troy Jackson Senate Exploratory Committeedocquery.fec.gov
  7. 7Fears Grow for a Return to War Between US and Iran | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com
  8. 82026 Maine US Senate Forecast - DDHQ Votesvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

7. How might the dynamics of ranked-choice voting impact campaign strategies and the final outcome for Susan Collins versus Troy Jackson?

Race TypeHead-to-head contest between two major-party nominees [1][2]
Voting MethodRanked-choice voting (RCV) [3][4][5][2]
Collins' Campaign Funds$11 million (as of June 30, 2026) [6][7]
The 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election will employ ranked-choice voting. This general election, featuring incumbent Republican Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, will utilize ranked-choice voting (RCV) [3][4][5][2]. Ranked-choice voting typically allows voters to rank candidates, and if no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, it redistributes votes until a winner is determined [4][8]. This process usually incentivizes candidates to seek second-choice support from other candidates' voters [9][10][11].
Traditional ranked-choice voting dynamics will not influence campaign strategies. The typical tactical dynamics associated with RCV, such as candidates managing secondary preferences from minor-party or independent voters, are not expected to be a factor in this specific contest [1][2]. This is because the election is a head-to-head race solely between two major-party nominees, Susan Collins and Troy Jackson [3][5][2]. Therefore, the usual RCV incentives for seeking second-choice support will not influence their campaign strategies or the final outcome [1][2].
Despite RCV's limited impact, the election remains highly competitive. Multiple forecasters have rated the election a toss-up as of late July 2026 [2]. Democratic challenger Troy Jackson entered the race in late July 2026 and faces a notable campaign funding disadvantage [6][7]. Senator Collins held approximately $11 million in campaign funds as of June 30, 2026 [6][7].
Sources (11)
  1. 12026 Maine US Senate Forecast - DDHQ Votesvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 2Collins and Jackson to face off for the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election this year in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  3. 3United States Senate election in Maine, 2026ballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 United States Senate election in Maineen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Troy Jackson becomes the first replacement nominee for...news.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Troy Jackson wins the Democratic nomination to challenge...mainepublic.org
  7. 7Maine Senate race: Democrats nominate Troy Jackson to...nbcnews.com
  8. 8AO 2024-12: Maine's ranked-choice voting process for...fec.gov
  9. 9The Effect of Ranked-Choice Voting in Maineelectionlab.mit.edu
  10. 10Graham Platner's replacement and ranked choice votingfairvote.org
  11. 11How ranked choice voting is impacting the Maine primaryfairvote.org

8. How have ratings from major election forecasters like The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball evolved since Troy Jackson's nomination in July 2026?

Democratic Candidate Nomination DateJuly 25, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Major Election Forecasters' RatingToss Up (as of early August 2026) [6][7][8][9]
Inside Elections RatingTilt Republican (as of late July 2026) [8][9]
Troy Jackson's nomination generally did not alter major election forecasts. He was officially selected as the Democratic candidate for the Maine U.S. Senate seat on July 25, 2026, taking the place of Graham Platner [1][2][3][4][5]. Following this nomination, leading election forecasters, including The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, broadly maintained their existing race ratings. By early August 2026, most continued to categorize the Maine Senate contest as a 'Toss Up' [6][7][8][9].
Forecasters largely kept the Maine Senate race as a 'Toss Up'. Specifically, The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ/The Hill, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all retained their 'Toss-up' assessment for the Maine Senate contest following Jackson's nomination [8][9]. However, Inside Elections maintained its 'Tilt Republican' rating for the race as of late July 2026 [8][9]. Jackson's selection is particularly noteworthy for its potential regional influence, given his origins in northern Maine. The Cook Political Report suggested that this geographical factor could help balance the regional dynamics of the race against the incumbent, Republican Senator Susan Collins [8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Troy Jackson wins the Democratic nomination to challenge...mainepublic.org
  2. 2Maine Senate race: Democrats nominate Troy Jackson to...nbcnews.com
  3. 3Troy Jackson replaces Graham Platner as Democratic...npr.org
  4. 4Troy Jackson officially clinches Maine Democratic U.S....mainemorningstar.com
  5. 5Troy Jackson secures Democratic nomination for Maine...theguardian.com
  6. 6ME Senate 2026cookpolitical.com
  7. 72026 CPR Senate Race ratingscookpolitical.com
  8. 8Collins and Jackson to face off for the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election this year in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Troy Jackson becomes the first replacement nominee for the U.S. Senate in Maine since 1918 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

9. What has been the effect of Graham Platner's withdrawal and Troy Jackson's late nomination on Democratic party unity and voter enthusiasm in Maine?

Platner WithdrawalJuly 10, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Jackson NominationJuly 25, 2026 [5][6][7]
Party ImpactInternal friction and concern over unity [8][9][10]
Graham Platner's withdrawal caused significant internal friction among Maine Democrats. Graham Platner's withdrawal from the Maine Senate race on July 10, 2026, following sexual assault allegations he denied, and Troy Jackson's subsequent late nomination, have created substantial internal friction within the Democratic Party in Maine [8][9][10][1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Platner's departure initially risked exacerbating existing divisions between moderate and progressive factions [11]. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former Maine Senate President, was nominated on July 25, 2026, through a swift, party-managed selection process [5][6][7], a transition that caused notable discord among party members [8][9][10].
The party now faces challenges in maintaining unity and enthusiasm. Democrats are concerned about sustaining the grassroots energy and progressive momentum generated by Platner's original campaign [8][9][10]. While some supporters view Jackson as an acceptable successor whose policy views align with Platner's, others express frustration over the party establishment's involvement in the candidate swap [9][10]. Jackson must now rapidly build a statewide network and raise funds to effectively compete in the upcoming election [9][10].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Graham Platner submits notice to formally withdraw from...pbs.org
  2. 2Graham Platner files formal withdrawal from Maine's...mainepublic.org
  3. 3Graham Platner is officially out of the Maine Senate racenpr.org
  4. 4Maine Democratic delegates choose Troy Jackson as new...apnews.com
  5. 5Troy Jackson wins the Democratic nomination to challenge...wgbh.org
  6. 6Troy Jackson secures Democratic nomination for Maine...theguardian.com
  7. 7Troy Jackson officially clinches Maine Democratic U.S....mainemorningstar.com
  8. 8Platner energized Maine's Democrats. Jackson's challenge...npr.org
  9. 9Maine Democrats are moving on from Platner. But cracks...csmonitor.com
  10. 10Troy Jackson emerges as likely Senate pick for Maine...pbs.org
  11. 11Democrat Graham Platner says he plans to withdraw from...ap.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine is scheduled for November 3, 2026, featuring incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic nominee Troy Jackson [1][2][3]. This race is widely considered highly competitive, with multiple forecasters rating it a "Toss-up" as of late July 2026 [2][4]. As of July 28, 2026, major political handicappers (The Cook Political Report, DDHQ/The Hill, and Sabato's Crystal Ball) rated the race as a Toss-up, while Inside Elections rated it as Tilt Republican [2].
The Democratic Party's nomination process saw a significant change. Graham Platner won the Democratic primary on June 9, 2026 [2][3], but withdrew from the race on July 10, 2026, following allegations of sexual assault [5][2][6]. On July 25, 2026, Maine Democratic Party delegates selected Troy Jackson as the replacement nominee [5][2][6]. This made Jackson the first replacement U.S. Senate nominee in Maine since 1918 [2][3].
A key upcoming date is August 25, 2026, which is the deadline for declared write-in candidates to file with the Maine Secretary of State, 70 days prior to the November election [7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (7)
  1. 1United States Senate election in Maine, 2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 2Collins and Jackson to face off for the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election this year in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Troy Jackson becomes the first replacement nominee for the U.S. Senate in Maine since 1918 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Maine Sen. Susan Collins makes reelection bid official – Roll Callrollcall.com
  5. 5Maine Democrats to pick US Senate nominee to replace Graham Platner | AP Newsapnews.com
  6. 6Graham Platner formally withdraws from Maine Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
  7. 7Secretary of State’s Office confirms receipt of official withdrawal by US Senate candidate Graham Platner | SOSmaine.gov