Short Answer

Troy Jackson is likely to win the 2026 Maine Senate race, though some analysts characterize it as a "toss-up" given recent narrow poll leads, suggesting the 68.0% market probability may be optimistic.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has remained stable, trading in a narrow five-point band since tracking began. The pricing reflects a consistent assessment of the race between Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic nominee Troy Jackson. The provided background establishes the candidates but does not contain news events that coincide with any specific price movements.
The sideways trajectory, with a current price of 33% for a Republican victory, indicates that the market has fully priced in the known fundamentals of the contest. The significant volume of over 532,000 contracts traded within this tight range suggests a strong consensus has formed around the current odds. No recent information appears to have altered traders' outlook on the race's outcome.
  • Since last update (~34d): Susan Collins' win probability dropped 7.7pp by our model, leading the market's 4.0pp fall.
  • Troy Jackson's model probability increased 7.7pp, outstripping the market's 3.0pp rise.
  • The predictive edge for the winner compressed by 3.6pp; our confidence score rose 3.0pp.
  • Troy Jackson is the market favorite, with probabilities consistently 65-69%.
  • Senator Collins holds over $11 million cash on hand as of June 30, 2026.
  • Some analysts characterize the race as a toss-up.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Susan Collins 33.0% 36.3% Incumbent Susan Collins has a strong history of winning elections and holds a significant financial advantage.
Troy Jackson 68.0% 63.7% Prediction markets consistently show strong confidence in Troy Jackson, with recent polls often showing narrow leads.

Current Context

Maine's 2026 Senate election pits incumbent Collins against Jackson. The general election for the U.S. Senate seat in Maine is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins faces Democratic nominee Troy Jackson [1][2][3]. Jackson was selected as the replacement nominee on July 25, 2026, at a Maine Democratic Party convention, following the withdrawal of original nominee Graham Platner on July 10, 2026, due to sexual assault allegations [1][2][4].
Market forecasts currently show a narrow lead for Jackson. The race is widely considered highly competitive, with analysts rating it from a toss-up to tilting slightly Republican [5][6]. As of early September 2026, some prediction market platforms indicate Troy Jackson's win probability at approximately 69% [7]. Decision Desk HQ's forecast, updated September 4, 2026, lists the race as a toss-up, with Jackson narrowly favored at a 52% win probability compared to Collins' 48% [8].
Candidates will hold four televised debates in October. Senator Collins and Troy Jackson have agreed to participate in a series of four televised debates throughout October 2026. The first debate is scheduled for October 6 [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 12026 United States Senate election in Maineen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2United States Senate election in Maine, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Troy Jackson becomes the first replacement nominee for the U.S. Senate in Maine since 1918 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4A 17-Day Scramble: How Maine Democrats Replaced Their Senate Nominee Under a Statutory Deadline – Election Deskelectiondesk.org
  5. 52026 Maine Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Polls - Pollsmaxpollsmax.com
  6. 6Collins and Jackson to face off for the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election this year in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Maine Senate winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  8. 82026 Maine US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Troy Jackson agrees to 4 debates against Susan Collins in Maine Senate racepressherald.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This prediction market asks who will win the Maine Senate race, with resolution determined by the officially declared winning party.

A "YES" outcome for a specific candidate's contract resolves if that candidate wins the Maine Senate race, thus their associated party is the winner. Conversely, a "NO" outcome resolves if that candidate does not win. The election begins on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, and all payouts for this market will be completed by November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Troy Jackson $0.68 $0.33 68%
Susan Collins $0.33 $0.68 33%

Market Discussion

The 2026 Maine Senate election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, with six write-in candidates ensuring ranked-choice voting [1][2][3]. As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets are favoring Troy Jackson with an implied probability of winning between 66% and 69%, attributing his momentum to organized labor ties and his platform on abortion rights [4][5][6][7]. In contrast, major election forecasters generally rate the race as a toss-up as of early September 2026, acknowledging Collins' historical resilience as a moderate incumbent [7][8][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 12026 United States Senate election in Maineen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2United States Senate election in Maine, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Six Write-In Candidates Complicate Maine’s U.S. Senate Race, Trigger Ranked-Choice Voting - The Maine Wirethemainewire.com
  4. 4Maine Senate winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Maine Senate 2026 — Live Kalshi Oddspredictionmarketspicks.com
  6. 6Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? | Paritypredictparity.com
  7. 7https://polymarket.com/event/maine-senate-election-winnerpolymarket.com
  8. 8Collins and Jackson to face off for the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election this year in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  9. 92026 Maine US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 82 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score72Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 3% of the price to slippage.

Trust score82Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
82Deep

Size fills near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Susan Collins81
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.9% of price over 7 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,216 · 24h
Troy Jackson82
Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Troy Jackson—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Susan Collins—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Troy Jackson100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Susan Collins100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
72Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 82 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.0c slippage (~3% of a 33c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.0c slippage (~3% of a 33c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.0c slippage (~3% of a 33c contract)

Troy Jackson82Market scoreLiquidity82Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 82
Liquidity
82 · Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Susan Collins81Market scoreLiquidity81Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 81
Liquidity
81 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.9% of price over 7 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,216 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 20, 2026

5. What is Susan Collins' historical election performance in Maine, and what does it suggest about her path to victory in 2026?

Collins 2020 Vote Share50.98% (2020) [1][2][3][4]
Troy Jackson Poll Lead2.8% (July-August 2026) [5][6][7]
Troy Jackson Prediction Market Probability65%-69% (September 9, 2026) [8][9][10][7]
Senator Susan Collins boasts a strong record of U.S. Senate election victories. She was initially elected in 1996 and subsequently reelected in 2002, 2008, 2014, and 2020 [11][4]. In her 2020 victory, Collins secured 50.98% of the vote, demonstrating her ability to win in a state that has favored Democratic presidential candidates since 1992 [1][2][3][4][12][13][8]. Her moderate stance and historical resilience have been critical factors in her consistent electoral success in Maine [12][13][8].
The 2026 Senate race shows a highly competitive contest. Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson in an election decided by ranked-choice voting, scheduled for November 3, 2026 [14][12][13]. Recent polls conducted between July and August 2026 indicate a close race, with Jackson typically holding a narrow average lead of 2.8%, often within the margin of error [5][6][7]. Prediction markets, as of September 9, 2026, further suggest an advantage for Jackson, assigning him implied win probabilities between 65% and 69%, compared to Collins' 31% to 33% [8][9][10][7].
Experts classify the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race as a "Toss-up." Multiple sources agree on this classification [15][16][17][18]. Predictive models, such as Decision Desk HQ, give Troy Jackson a slight edge with a 52% win probability as of September 2026 [15][16][17][18]. Collins' path to victory relies on her appeal to independents and Democrats, leveraging her history of occasionally diverging from Republican leadership [15]. However, she faces a new challenge in Jackson, who shares her regional roots, which could potentially neutralize a traditional advantage for Collins in a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024 [15].
Sources (18)
  1. 12020 Senatorial General Election Results - Maineuselectionatlas.org
  2. 2United States Senate election in Maine, 2020 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 32014 Senatorial General Election Results - Maineuselectionatlas.org
  4. 4United States Senate elections in Maine, 2014 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 52026 Maine Senate Election Race | Polls, Candidates & Oddspredictionedge.com
  6. 6Susan Collins: 2026 Maine U.S. Senate Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  7. 7Maine Senate Winner 2026 Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
  8. 8Maine Senate Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  9. 9Maine Senate winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  10. 10Maine US Senate Winner — Compare Odds on 5 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  11. 11List of United States Senators from Maine - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  12. 12United States Senate election in Maine, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  13. 132026 United States Senate election in Maine - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  14. 14Electoral history of Susan Collins - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  15. 15Collins and Jackson to face off for the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election this year in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  16. 162026 Maine US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  17. 17Troy Jackson becomes the first replacement nominee for the U.S. Senate in Maine since 1918 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  18. 182026 Maine US Senate Marketsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

6. What has been the impact of the late-July Democratic nominee change on party unity and voter enthusiasm for Troy Jackson's campaign?

Nominee Change DateJuly 25, 2026 [1][2][3]
Jackson's Polling Lead (mid-August)2.3 percentage points [4]
Jackson Win Probability (DDHQ, Sep 4)52% [5][6]
The late-July nominee change significantly impacted Democratic unity and campaign logistics. On July 25, 2026, Troy Jackson replaced Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate due to sexual assault allegations, affecting both party unity and voter enthusiasm for Jackson's campaign [1][2][3]. Despite efforts to unify the party, including securing support from figures like Senator Bernie Sanders, the campaign faces considerable logistical challenges [4]. These hurdles include a compressed timeline, Jackson's limited national campaign funds compared to incumbent Senator Susan Collins' reported $11 million-plus cash on hand, and the necessity of rapidly establishing a full campaign apparatus following the late-cycle nominee change [4][7]. The campaign's strategy involves portraying Senator Collins as an ally of the wealthy and a supporter of Donald Trump, while simultaneously leveraging Jackson's northern Maine background [3].
Recent data indicates a competitive but Jackson-favored Senate race. Polling conducted in mid-August 2026 showed Troy Jackson leading incumbent Senator Susan Collins by approximately 2.3 percentage points [4]. Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, consistently favored Jackson to win in early-to-mid August 2026, with implied probabilities generally ranging between 65% and 70% [8][9][10][11][12]. More recently, as of September 4, 2026, Decision Desk HQ forecasts the Maine U.S. Senate race as a toss-up, with Troy Jackson narrowly favored to win with a 52% probability, compared to 48% for Susan Collins [5][6].
Sources (12)
  1. 1United States Senate election in Maine, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Troy Jackson officially clinches Maine Democratic U.S. Senate...mainemorningstar.com
  3. 3Collins and Jackson to face off for the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election this year in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Where things stand in the Susan Collins-Troy Jackson Maine... - Axiosaxios.com
  5. 52026 Maine US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Maine US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Maine Senate Odds 2026: Collins Vs Jackson Verdict | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  8. 82026 Maine Senate Election Race | Polls, Candidates & Oddspredictionedge.com
  9. 9Maine Senate winner? (Person) Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  10. 10Maine Senate winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  11. 11Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? | Paritypredictparity.com
  12. 12Maine US Senate Winner — Compare Odds on 5 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

7. How do Susan Collins' and Troy Jackson's fundraising numbers and campaign spending compare for the 2026 election cycle?

Collins Total Receipts$16,169,827.43 (as of July 2026 reporting period) [1][2][3]
Collins Cash on Hand$11.04 million (as of June 30, 2026) [4][5][6]
Jackson ActBlue Fundraisingover $5.3 million (July 2026) [7][8][9]
Senator Susan Collins holds a substantial financial lead for 2026. For the 2026 election cycle, the incumbent Senator's campaign has reported significant financial activity. As of the July 2026 reporting period, her campaign recorded $16,169,827.43 in total receipts and $7,708,020.91 in total disbursements [1][2][3]. Furthermore, Collins maintained approximately $11.04 million in cash on hand as of June 30, 2026 [4][5][6].
Troy Jackson's campaign finance data shows a different pattern. The Democratic nominee, who officially entered the race later, does not have comprehensive public fundraising or spending data available through FEC reports for his campaign committee for the 2025–2026 period as of early September 2026 [7][10][11][12]. Despite the current absence of official FEC reporting, Jackson notably raised over $5.3 million via the ActBlue platform during July 2026 alone [7][8][9].
Substantial outside spending underscores the competitiveness of this race. The Maine Senate contest is attracting considerable external financial interest, signaling its highly competitive nature. Groups such as the Senate Leadership Fund have committed $42 million, and the Senate Majority PAC has reserved $33 million in advertising [13][9].
Sources (13)
  1. 1COLLINS FOR SENATOR - committee overview | FECfec.gov
  2. 2FEC Disclosure Form 3 for Collins for Senatordocquery.fec.gov
  3. 3FEC Disclosure Form 3 for Collins for Senatordocquery.fec.gov
  4. 42026 Maine Senate Election Race | Polls, Candidates & Oddspredictionedge.com
  5. 5Susan Collins: 2026 Maine U.S. Senate Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  6. 6Latest filings show Susan Collins widened cash advantage against...mainemorningstar.com
  7. 7TROY JACKSON FOR MAINE - committee overview - FECfec.gov
  8. 8Troy Jackson secured third-most donations of Senate candidates...mainemorningstar.com
  9. 9Where things stand in the Susan Collins-Troy Jackson Maine... - Axiosaxios.com
  10. 10Form 1 for Troy Jackson for Mainedocquery.fec.gov
  11. 11JACKSON, TROY DALE - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
  12. 12Form 1 for Troy Jackson for Mainedocquery.fec.gov
  13. 13The Money Behind Maine's Senate Race | Legis1legis1.com

8. What public polling is available for the Collins vs. Jackson matchup since the July 2026 Democratic nomination change?

Jackson Lead (Hart Research)4% (July 27–August 1) [1][2]
Jackson Lead (UNH)3% (July 15–20) [1][2]
Collins Lead (Abacus Data)1% (August 26–28) [3][4][5]
Troy Jackson became the Democratic nominee in July 2026. He was selected for the U.S. Senate race in Maine on July 25, 2026, following a nominating convention held after the previous nominee withdrew from the race [6][7][8][9]. Public polling conducted since his nomination indicates a highly competitive contest against incumbent Susan Collins.
Several recent surveys indicate Troy Jackson holds a lead. A Hart Research Associates poll, conducted from July 27 to August 1, showed Jackson leading Collins 49%-45% [1][2], indicating a 4% advantage for Jackson [3][4][5]. Earlier, a University of New Hampshire poll conducted July 15–20 also reported Jackson ahead, 49%-46% [1][2].
Other polls suggest a narrower lead or deficit for Jackson. A Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. survey from August 6–10 showed Jackson leading 48%-46% [1][2], consistent with a 2% lead reported by a Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Company poll from the same dates [3][4][5]. Conversely, an Abacus Data poll conducted from August 26–28 indicated Susan Collins with a 1% lead over Jackson [3][4][5]. These results underscore the close nature of the Senate race.
Sources (9)
  1. 12026 Maine Senate Election Race | Polls, Candidates & Oddspredictionedge.com
  2. 2[PDF] maine democratic primary voters want jackson as senate nominee...scholars.unh.edu
  3. 32026 Maine US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 Maine US Senate Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5United States Senate election in Maine, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Troy Jackson officially clinches Maine Democratic U.S. Senate...mainemorningstar.com
  7. 7Maine Senate Process - Maine Democratic Partymainedems.org
  8. 8Who will replace Graham Platner on the Maine ballot?spectrumlocalnews.com
  9. 9Collins and Jackson to face off for the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election this year in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

9. What polling data and forecast models support Troy Jackson's lead in the 2026 Maine Senate prediction markets?

Prediction Market Probability (Jackson)65%-69% [1][2][3][4]
Decision Desk HQ Probability (Jackson)52% [5][6][7]
RealClearPolitics Poll Lead (Jackson)2.3 percentage points [2][8]
Prediction markets and forecast models favor Troy Jackson for the 2026 Maine Senate. As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets consistently show Troy Jackson (D) as the favored candidate to win the Maine Senate election. Platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Smarkets, and Gemini indicate implied probabilities for Jackson ranging from approximately 65% to 69% [1][2][3][4]. Furthermore, the Decision Desk HQ forecast, updated on the same date, projects a 52% probability of victory for Jackson against incumbent Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election [5][6][7].
Polling data indicates a competitive but mixed race favoring Jackson. Polling data for the 2026 Maine Senate race presents a competitive, yet somewhat mixed, picture with several polls showing Jackson ahead. The RealClearPolitics average reveals Jackson leading by 2.3 percentage points [2][8]. Specific polls conducted in early August 2026 further support this trend, with Fox News/Beacon Research showing Jackson ahead by 2% and Senate Majority PAC/Hart Research indicating a 4% lead [5][7][9].
Decision Desk HQ forecast reinforces Jackson's lead through a blended model. The Decision Desk HQ forecast, last updated on September 9, 2026, solidifies Troy Jackson's leading position. This model attributes a 52% probability of winning to Jackson and is constructed from a blend of analytical components, specifically 57% fundamentals, 18% polls, and 25% markets [5][7].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Maine Senate winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 22026 Maine Senate Election Race | Polls, Candidates & Oddspredictionedge.com
  3. 3Maine US Senate Winner — Compare Odds on 5 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Maine Senate Winner 2026 Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
  5. 52026 Maine US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Maine US Senate Marketsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 72026 Maine US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 8Where things stand in the Susan Collins-Troy Jackson Maine... - Axiosaxios.com
  9. 9Troy Dale Jackson - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic nominee Troy Jackson [1][2][3][4]. Jackson became the Democratic nominee after a convention on July 25, 2026, following the withdrawal of primary winner Graham Platner due to allegations of sexual assault [1][4][3]. The election uses ranked-choice voting [5]. As of September 2026, major forecasts, including Decision Desk HQ, The Cook Political Report, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, rate this race as a toss-up [3][6][7].
Broader market catalysts for 2026 Senate control predictions encompass geopolitical events, such as U.S. involvement in Iran [8], economic sentiment tied to Federal Reserve decisions [9], potential government shutdown risks, and late-cycle campaign finance reports [10]. Prediction markets exhibited increased volatility in early September 2026, with Democrats seeing a surge in their odds to control the Senate; market participants have linked this shift to ongoing international military actions [8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1United States Senate election in Maine, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 United States Senate election in Maine - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Collins and Jackson to face off for the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election this year in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Troy Jackson becomes the first replacement nominee for the U.S. Senate in Maine since 1918 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Maine — U.S. Senate — 2026 forecast - Akashicakashic.app
  6. 62026 Election Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 72026 U.S. Senate Forecast | Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 8Democrats Flip Senate Odds to 51% Linked to Iran | Lines.comlines.com
  9. 9Polymarket's 52-cent Senate coin flip is a structural mispricing. The generic ballot says 57. | Noah Intelligencenoah-news.com
  10. 102026 US Senate Control Odds & Analysis | Prediction Geniuspredictiongenius.io

12. Related News

+12.0pp
Last updated: September 9, 2026, 21:36 UTC

Platner Primary Win Lifts Democratic Odds in Maine Senate Market

The formalization of the general election matchup in Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race is prompting traders to re-evaluate the contest, shifting the implied odds significantly in favor of the Democratic P...