Short Answer

James Byrd is not expected to win the 2026 Wyoming Senate race, with Republican Harriet Hageman overwhelmingly favored, supported by the state's strong Republican lean and her significant fundraising, priced at 1.9%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market opened after Harriet Hageman won the Republican primary on August 18, 2026, an event which secured her nomination and positioned her as the prohibitive favorite. The initial pricing of 99.0% reflects the consensus that the Republican nominee is almost certain to win the general election in Wyoming, a view supported by forecasts from outlets like the Cook Political Report.
The market has since traded sideways in an extremely tight range with minimal volume. Only 13 contracts have traded in total. The slight increase to 99.8% does not coincide with any specific news event but represents a marginal firming of an already established and overwhelming consensus. The low volume underscores the lack of any significant countervailing opinion or new information to challenge the initial market pricing.
  • Since last update (~28d): Harriet Hageman's market probability increased by +1.9pp, market_led, widening the edge to -0.9pp.
  • James Byrd's model probability decreased by -1.1pp, model_led, further widening the overall edge.
  • Confidence score in the prediction significantly strengthened, increasing by +4.0pp to 9.0.
  • Harriet Hageman winning the Senate race is highly probable, given Wyoming's R+23 PVI.
  • Hageman's $11.2 million fundraising and landslide primary victory further secure her win.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Harriet Hageman 99.8% 98.9% Harriet Hageman is overwhelmingly favored due to Wyoming's strong Republican lean and 'Safe Republican' forecasts.
James Byrd 1.9% 1.1% James Byrd faces immense structural challenges in deeply Republican Wyoming and a significant fundraising deficit.

Current Context

Republican Harriet Hageman is overwhelmingly favored in Wyoming's Senate race. The Wyoming U.S. Senate seat is open due to the retirement of incumbent Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis [1][2][3][4]. Republican Representative Harriet Hageman won the GOP primary on August 18, 2026, securing her nomination alongside Democrat James Byrd [1][5][6]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][5]. Prediction markets and election analysts classify the Wyoming Senate race as "Safe Republican," with Hageman holding a win probability of approximately 96% to 99% as of September 9, 2026 [1][3][4][7]. Decision Desk HQ specifically rates Hageman with a 99% probability of victory as of September 8, 2026 [1][8].
National Senate control remains uncertain despite Wyoming's clear lean. While the Wyoming contest is not competitive, national control of the U.S. Senate is a "pure toss-up" as of early September 2026 [9][10][11][12]. Major forecasters like Decision Desk HQ show both parties holding roughly a 50% probability of control [9][10][11][12]. The 120th Congress is scheduled to convene on January 3, 2027 [13][14][15].
Sources (15)
  1. 12026 Wyoming US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 2WY Senate 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  3. 3Wyoming's Senate Election - VoteHubvotehub.com
  4. 4Wyoming — U.S. Senate — 2026 forecast — Akashicakashic.app
  5. 5United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 62026 Wyoming US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Why Harriet Hageman (R) Will Win the Wyoming Senate: Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  8. 82026 U.S. Senate Forecast | Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Senate fight reaches 'pure toss-up' status before midterms, DDHQ saysthehill.com
  10. 10Republicans were confident about keeping the Senate. Now the battle is wide openpbs.org
  11. 11The GOP was confident about keeping its Senate majority. Now the fight for control is wide open - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  12. 12Major Senate Forecast Shifts Toward Democrats - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  13. 132026 Election Calendar: Primary and General Election Datesapnews.com
  14. 14Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing Deadlines for Ballot Accessfec.gov
  15. 15The 2026 Midterms: Key Dates and Events - Bipartisan Policy Centerbipartisanpolicy.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A YES resolution occurs if the political party associated with the 'Yes' position chosen (e.g., Republican for Harriet Hageman or Democratic for James Byrd) wins the Wyoming Senate race; a NO resolution occurs if that party does not win. Trading for this market begins on November 3 at 8:00 AM EST, and final payouts will be made by November 3, 2027, with settlement specifically based on the winning party.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Harriet Hageman $1.00 $0.02 100%
James Byrd $0.02 $0.99 2%

Market Discussion

Harriet Hageman (R) and James Byrd (D) will face off in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming, scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. Forecasters widely categorize this race as 'Safe Republican,' with Harriet Hageman, identified as the Republican incumbent, projected to win with a probability greater than 99% as of September 8, 2026 [3][6][7][5][8]. Prediction markets for overall Senate control generally consider the Wyoming seat non-competitive, focusing liquidity on toss-up races [9][10][11][12].

Sources (12)
  1. 1Republican Hageman will face Democrat Byrd after landslide victories in Wyoming’s US Senate primary - WyoFilewyofile.com
  2. 2Wyoming 2026 primary results: Trump-backed Harriet Hageman to face Democrat James Byrd in Senate race - ABC Newswww-cdn.abcnews.com
  3. 3Trump-backed Rep. Harriet Hageman wins Republican Senate primary in Wyomingnbcnews.com
  4. 4Hageman wins Republican primary for Senate, Byrd wins Democratic vote | Wyoming Public Mediawyomingpublicmedia.org
  5. 5United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 62026 Wyoming US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 72026 Wyoming US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 Wyoming US Senate Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Senate 2026 Odds: Live Prediction Market Tracker for Chamber Control – Bellwetherbellwether.market
  10. 10How To Bet On 2026 Senate Elections: Kalshi Odds | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  11. 11Polymarket's 52-cent Senate coin flip is a structural mispricing. The generic ballot says 57. | Noah Intelligencenoah-news.com
  12. 12[PDF] A Comparison of IEM and Kalshi Prediction Markets - biz.uiowa.edubiz.uiowa.edu

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score45High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
79Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on SENATEWY-26-R carried 37% of its $6,800 tape (print is 38d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
63Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first

Harriet Hageman63
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

James Byrd—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
81Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

2 contracts · worst first

Harriet Hageman81
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

James Byrd—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Harriet Hageman100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
James Byrd100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
45High Risk

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 40 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.7c slippage (<1% of a 97.8c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.9c slippage (<1% of a 97.8c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.6c slippage (~2% of a 97.8c contract)

Harriet Hageman40Market scoreLiquidity63Move quality81Rule clarity100
Why 40
Liquidity
63 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
81 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
James Byrd–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

5. What historical election results and current 2026 forecasts support the 'Safe Republican' classification for Harriet Hageman?

Primary Vote Share64.9% (August 18, 2026) [1][2]
Wyoming PVIR+23 [1][3][4]
Hageman Campaign Funds$11.2 million (as of July 29, 2026) [1][3][5]
Harriet Hageman's Senate bid is widely classified as 'Safe Republican.' Harriet Hageman secured the Republican nomination for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Wyoming on August 18, 2026, winning the primary with 64.9% of the vote [1][2]. Following this victory, prominent political forecasters, including The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, consistently classified the general election race as 'Safe Republican' or 'Solid Republican,' with some establishing these ratings as early as December 2025 [1][2][3][4]. This strong classification is underpinned by Wyoming's deeply entrenched Republican lean, evidenced by Donald Trump carrying the state by nearly 46 points in 2024 and the state's at-large district holding a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+23 [1][3][4][6]. Furthermore, Hageman herself achieved landslide victories in the at-large House seat in both 2022 and 2024, with margins of 43.8% and 47.4% respectively [6].
Current 2026 forecasts strongly project a Hageman victory. Decision Desk HQ, for instance, projects Hageman's win probability at 99%, with an anticipated margin of R+30 for the 2026 general election [1][3][5]. This projection is based on fundamental factors such as Wyoming's partisan baseline and Hageman's significant financial advantage [1][3][5]. Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings as of July 29, 2026, indicate that Hageman's campaign committee has raised approximately $11.2 million [1][3][5]. Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, also reflect a near-certain outcome, with Hageman's market price consistently at or above 98 cents [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 United States Senate election in Wyoming - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 32026 Wyoming US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Rep. Harriet Hageman becomes the 14th U.S. House member to run...news.ballotpedia.org
  5. 52026 Wyoming US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6GOP Rep. Harriet Hageman launches Senate run in Wyomingnbcnews.com
  7. 7Why Harriet Hageman (R) Will Win the Wyoming Senate: Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com

6. How do Harriet Hageman's and James Byrd's fundraising totals compare according to the latest FEC filings for the 2026 cycle?

Harriet Hageman total receipts$11,242,126 (July 29, 2026 [1][2])
James Byrd total receipts$22,559 (July 29, 2026 [1][2])
Harriet Hageman winning probabilitygreater than 99% (Prediction models [1][2])
Harriet Hageman's campaign significantly outraised James Byrd for the 2026 election cycle. As of the July 29, 2026, FEC pre-primary filing, Hageman reported total receipts of $11,242,126. In contrast, James Byrd's campaign raised $22,559 during the same reporting period [1][2].
Prediction markets and models indicate a very high likelihood of Hageman winning. Major markets such as Polymarket and Gemini gave Harriet Hageman approximately 99% odds of winning the 2026 Wyoming Senate election as of August 2026 [3][4][5]. Additionally, Decision Desk HQ and other prediction models estimate her probability of winning at greater than 99% [1][2].
Sources (5)
  1. 12026 Wyoming US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 Wyoming US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3Why James Byrd Will Win The Wyoming Senate Race On Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  4. 4Wyoming US Senate Winner | Gemini Predictionsgemini.com
  5. 5Wyoming Senate Election Winner - Polymarket USpolymarket.us

7. What potential political events before the November 2026 election could realistically alter Harriet Hageman's high win probability?

Hageman Primary Win Percentage62.2% (August 18, 2026 primary) [1][2][3]
Republican Win Probability98% to 99% [4][5]
Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI)R+23 [6][4]
Harriet Hageman secured the Republican nomination for the 2026 U.S. Senate election. She won the August 18, 2026, primary with 62.2% of the vote [1][2][3]. Hageman is scheduled to compete against Democratic nominee James Byrd in the general election on November 3, 2026 [1][2].
Prediction markets overwhelmingly favor a Republican victory in the Senate race. These markets assign a 98% to 99% probability for a Republican win and consistently classify the race as Solid Republican [4][5]. Decision Desk HQ further supports this assessment, projecting Harriet Hageman's win probability at 99% with a significant R+30 margin [2][7].
Wyoming's strong Republican leanings underpin Hageman's very high win probability. This is evidenced by a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+23 and a substantial 10.7-to-1 Republican primary turnout advantage over Democrats in 2026 [6][4]. Given Wyoming's overwhelming partisan structural advantage, any event capable of altering Hageman's high win probability before November 2026 is extremely unlikely [6][4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 Wyoming US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 Wyoming US Senate Live Election Results | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Why Harriet Hageman (R) Will Win the Wyoming Senate: Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  5. 52026 Wyoming Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  6. 6WY Senate 2026 - Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  7. 7Rep. Harriet Hageman becomes the 14th U.S. House member to run for U.S. Senate in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

8. How might the national battle for U.S. Senate control in 2026 influence campaign messaging and voter turnout in the Wyoming race?

Favored Candidate (Wyoming Senate 2026)Harriet Hageman (Republican) [1][2]
Probability of Republican VictoryGreater than 99% (Decision Desk HQ) [3][4][5]
Wyoming's Senate Race StatusSafely Republican state, not a national battleground [6][4][5]
Wyoming's Senate race will be minimally affected by national control efforts. This is primarily because Wyoming is considered a safely Republican state and not a national Senate battleground, leading to minimal influence from the national struggle for Senate control [6][1][2][4][5]. Campaign messaging and voter turnout efforts within the state will therefore largely concentrate on internal party dynamics and margin of victory, rather than the race's impact on national control, unlike in more competitive states [6][1][2][4][5].
Harriet Hageman is overwhelmingly favored to win the Wyoming Senate seat. Hageman, a Republican, is strongly projected to win the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Wyoming, an open seat following Senator Cynthia Lummis's retirement [1][2]. Prediction markets consistently price a Republican victory at 97% to 99% probability, underscoring Wyoming's deep-red political alignment and Hageman's established electoral standing [1][7][8]. Decision Desk HQ further supports this, projecting Hageman to win with greater than 99% probability [3][4][5]. The general election is set for November 3, 2026, and will feature Harriet Hageman (R) and James Byrd (D) as candidates [6][4].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Why Harriet Hageman (R) Will Win the Wyoming Senate: Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  2. 2What to watch in the Alaska and Wyoming primary electionsaljazeera.com
  3. 32026 Wyoming US Senate Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 Wyoming US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 U.S. Senate Forecast | Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 72026 Wyoming Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  8. 8Wyoming US Senate Winner | Gemini Predictionsgemini.com

9. What are the primary structural challenges facing James Byrd's campaign in a historically Republican state like Wyoming?

James Byrd Campaign Receipts$22,559 (as of July 29, 2026) [1]
Harriet Hageman Campaign Receipts$2,435,023 (as of July 29, 2026) [1]
Primary Turnout Gap (Parties)11-to-1 [2]
James Byrd's campaign in Wyoming faces significant structural challenges. These difficulties are primarily attributed to the state's historical Republican dominance and an 11-to-1 primary turnout gap favoring Republicans [2][1]. This deeply entrenched political landscape creates a fundamental obstacle for his Democratic campaign [2].
Byrd's campaign faces a substantial fundraising deficit against his opponent. A major electoral hurdle for the campaign is the significant disparity in financial resources. As of late August 2026, Byrd's campaign had raised approximately $22,559, a stark contrast to his Republican opponent, Harriet Hageman, who had raised around $2.4 million [2]. More specifically, by July 29, 2026, Byrd’s campaign reported total receipts of $22,559 and expenditures of $23,293. In comparison, Hageman’s campaign reported $2,435,023 in receipts and $2,402,617 in expenditures [1].
Prediction markets overwhelmingly favor Harriet Hageman for the Senate seat. The considerable challenges confronting Byrd are further reflected in prediction markets, which consistently quote Harriet Hageman at 97-99 cents. This pricing indicates a 97-99% probability of her winning the seat [3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2James Byrd | U.S. Senate | WyoFile 2026 Election Guideprojects.wyofile.com
  3. 3Why James Byrd Will Win The Wyoming Senate Race On Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  4. 4Wyoming US Senate Winner | Gemini Predictionsgemini.com
  5. 5Why Harriet Hageman (R) Will Win the Wyoming Senate: Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Drivers for probability shifts in the 2026 U.S. Senate control prediction markets include state-level polling in toss-up races, candidate withdrawals or entries, court rulings on election laws, national environment indicators such as presidential approval ratings, and unexpected liquidity events [1][2][3].
As of early September 2026, prediction markets treat the national Senate control contest as a near-tossup [4][3]. Some analysis suggests structural mispricing in how markets correlate individual toss-up state races [4][3]. The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Wyoming, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features Republican nominee Harriet Hageman and Democratic nominee James W. Byrd [5][6]. Harriet Hageman (R) holds a >99% win probability in current forecast models and prediction markets [7][8][9]. Decision Desk HQ classifies this race as 'Safe Republican' with a projected margin of R+30 [7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1Senate 2026 Odds: Live Prediction Market Tracker for Chamber Control – Bellwetherbellwether.market
  2. 22026 US Midterms: Prediction Markets Price the Senate | Duel Duckduelduck.com
  3. 32026 US Senate Control Odds & Analysis | Prediction Geniuspredictiongenius.io
  4. 4Polymarket's 52-cent Senate coin flip is a structural mispricing. The generic ballot says 57. | Noah Intelligencenoah-news.com
  5. 5United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 62026 United States Senate election in Wyoming - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  7. 72026 Wyoming US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 Wyoming US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 Wyoming US Senate Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com