Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect R Senate, D House as the most likely outcome for the 2026 Midterms, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, pricing the probability of Democrats controlling both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterms, has been confined to a tight 4-point range between 43.5% and 47.5%. The price has trended sideways, moving from an opening of 43.5% to its current level of 45.5%. The data establishes 43.5% as a support level and 47.5% as resistance for the period. The primary price move was a 2-point increase in early August.
The upward price adjustment to 45.5% corresponds with news of Democratic polling leads. Generic congressional ballot surveys from August show Democrats ahead of Republicans by 4 to 8 points, while President Trump's approval rating stands at 42%. These data points provide a fundamental basis for the modest increase in the contract's implied probability.
Volume, however, has been zero. This is a critical detail. The price movement is not the result of trader activity or capital flows but appears to be a theoretical adjustment, likely by an automated market maker reacting to external data. The absence of any traded contracts means there is no expressed market conviction or consensus behind the current 45.5% price. The price reflects a model's output, not active sentiment.
  • R Senate, D House outcome suggested by likely Republican Senate and President Trump's low approval.
  • A Democratic Sweep scenario relies on further economic performance shifts and generic ballot changes.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Democrats Sweep 46.0% 38.8% Achieving unified Democratic control of both chambers appears challenging in a midterm year.
Republicans Sweep 13.0% 9.0% Republicans could gain unified control of both the Senate and the House.
R Senate, D House 41.0% 50.3% Historically, midterm elections often lead to divided control of Congress.
Other 0.4% 0.5% Other unforeseen configurations for congressional power remain a minor possibility.
D Senate, R House 1.3% 1.4% A split Congress with Democrats holding the Senate and Republicans the House is possible.

Current Context

As of August 2026, Democrats hold a lead in generic congressional ballot polling. Various surveys show Democratic leads ranging from 4 to 8 percentage points over Republicans [1][2][3]. President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 42% approval versus 55% disapproval [4]. Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress, with a 53–47 majority in the Senate and a majority in the House [5][6]. The general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, following primary elections across states from March 3 to September 15, 2026 [7][8].
Forecasts indicate divided control of Congress is the most likely outcome. Decision Desk HQ's model gives Democrats a 62% probability of winning a House majority and Republicans a 57% probability of maintaining Senate control [4]. Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, generally favor a split Congress, with high probabilities for a Democratic House and a Republican Senate [9][10]. Democrats are heavily favored to win the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains a highly competitive battleground, with Republicans slightly favored to retain their majority [11][12][10]. Ballotpedia identifies 46 battleground districts in the House and 12 battleground seats in the Senate for the 2026 midterms [13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Democrats Lead Republicans in Polls Three Months Ahead of Midtermstime.com
  2. 2CNN Poll: Voters favor Democrats by an 8-point margin heading into the midterms | CNN Politicscnn.com
  3. 3Who's leading in the 2026 midterm elections?yougov.com
  4. 4Decision Desk HQ Releases 2026 Congressional Forecast Model | DDHQdecisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5United States Congress elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  6. 6U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2026ballotpedia.org
  7. 7The 2026 Midterms: Key Dates and Eventsbipartisanpolicy.org
  8. 8When are the midterm elections 2026? Who is leading in midterms, pollsusatoday.com
  9. 9Nate Silver Predicts Republicans ‘Low Probability’ Path to Midterm Win - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  10. 10Who will control Congress in 2026? Latest polls, odds and forecastsusatoday.com
  11. 11100 Days Out: State of the Midterms - VoteHubvotehub.com
  12. 12GOP midterm prospects darken as Trump approval falls | Brookingsbrookings.edu
  13. 13United States House of Representatives elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  14. 14United States Senate elections, 2026ballotpedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

  1. What exactly triggers a YES resolution: A "YES" resolution for a specific outcome occurs if the designated party achieves control of the House of Representatives and/or the Senate as defined by the 2026 United States midterm elections. House control means winning a majority of voting seats, while Senate control means holding more than half of voting members, or half plus the Vice President.
  2. What triggers a NO resolution: A "NO" resolution for a specific outcome is triggered if the conditions required for its "YES" resolution are not met based on the results of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
  3. Key dates/deadlines: The market's end date is November 3, 2026. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all conclusively called the winners for both the House and Senate following these elections.
  4. Any special settlement conditions: If control of either chamber is ambiguous, it will resolve based on the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the House or Senate Majority Leader selected. If the three resolution sources do not reach consensus, the market will resolve based on the official certification of the election results.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Democrats Sweep $0.46 $0.55 46%
R Senate, D House $0.41 $0.60 41%
Republicans Sweep $0.14 $0.87 13%
D Senate, R House $0.01 $0.99 1%
Other $0.01 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Traders are primarily split between Democrats sweeping both chambers (46%) and a divided government with a Republican Senate and Democratic House (41%) for the 2026 midterms. This consensus is driven by national generic ballot polling favoring Democrats, President Trump's sub-50% approval ratings, and Republican Senate map vulnerabilities, further bolstered by recent Democratic primary victories. However, tightness persists due to competitive House districts from redistricting, fundraising advantages in key races, and the typical midterm penalty for the president's party, with a Republican sweep seen as less likely at 14%.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 76 Good

Largest single print on “D Senate, R House” carried 59% of its $1,478 tape (window is 3% of 24h flow)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good

Resolution quality is low (60), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score68Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score76Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 4 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on “D Senate, R House” carried 59% of its $1,478 tape (window is 3% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Participant influenceNo conflicted participant detected. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
68Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

5 contracts · worst first

Other39
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Republicans Sweep56
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

R Senate, D House65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

D Senate, R House71
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 51% vs realized 5%
Democrats Sweep86
Deep · medium confidence

Typical bar range 0.8% of price over 4 traded bars

24h traded notional $4,758 · 24h
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

5 contracts · worst first

Democrats Sweep—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

R Senate, D House—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Republicans Sweep—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

D Senate, R House—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Other—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

5 contracts · worst first

Democrats Sweep100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
R Senate, D House100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Republicans Sweep100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
D Senate, R House100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Other100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
68Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 69 (notional-weighted across 5 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 59.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 59.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.2c slippage (~2% of a 59.5c contract)

Democrats Sweep86Market scoreLiquidity86Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 86
Liquidity
86 · Deep · medium confidence

Typical bar range 0.8% of price over 4 traded bars

24h traded notional $4,758 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
R Senate, D House65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Republicans Sweep56Market scoreLiquidity56Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 56
Liquidity
56 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
D Senate, R House71Market scoreLiquidity71Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 71
Liquidity
71 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 51% vs realized 5%
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Other39Market scoreLiquidity39Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 39
Liquidity
39 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 20, 2026

5. How does fundraising for the Democratic and Republican congressional campaign committees compare in the final months of the 2026 election cycle?

NRCC Cash-on-Hand$92.7 million (as of June 30, 2026) [1][2][3]
DCCC Q2 2026 Fundraising$37.4 million [1][2][3]
Republican Party Committees Cash-on-Hand$259.1 million (as of March 31, 2026) [4]
Republican House committees maintain a cash advantage despite recent Democratic fundraising strength. As of June 30, 2026, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported $92.7 million in cash-on-hand, exceeding the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which held $79 million [1][2][3]. Despite this cash lead, the DCCC demonstrated stronger recent fundraising, raising $37.4 million in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the NRCC's $35.4 million [1][2][3].
Republicans hold a significant cash lead across all national party committees. In the Senate, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) also maintains a cash-on-hand lead of over $10 million against the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) [5]. Cumulatively, all Republican party committees reported $259.1 million in cash on hand as of March 31, 2026, significantly more than the $166.8 million held by Democratic party committees [4]. This financial standing is further amplified by a recent Supreme Court ruling that permits unlimited coordinated spending between national party committees and their candidates [1][2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Exclusive: House Republicans outraise Democrats in Juneaxios.com
  2. 2Democrats win the quarter, lose the bank | US Midterms 2026lowdown.today
  3. 3House Republicans Maintain Cash Lead While Democratic Senate Candidates Outpace Rivals | The Front Pagefrnt.com
  4. 4Statistical Summary of 15-Month Campaign Activity of the...fec.gov
  5. 5Democrats dominate fundraising in key Senate races, but...abcnews.com

6. What evidence from state-level polling in the 12 Senate battleground states supports the forecast that Republicans will maintain control of the Senate?

Senate Forecast 2026Republicans to maintain control of the Senate [1][2][3]
Democratic Path to MajorityMust win at least two battleground states Trump carried by 11-14 points in 2024 [1][2][3]
Republican Seat VulnerabilityDefend fewer highly vulnerable seats compared to previous cycles [4][5][6]
State-level polling suggests Republicans will likely retain Senate control. Analysis of the 12 competitive U.S. Senate battleground states for the 2026 cycle points to structural challenges that make it difficult for Democrats to gain a majority [1][2][3]. While state-level polling and nonpartisan ratings indicate a highly competitive environment with multiple toss-up races, the underlying math creates a challenging path for Democrats [4][5][6]. Republicans benefit from defending fewer highly vulnerable seats compared to previous cycles, and prediction markets generally discount the likelihood of a major Democratic sweep [4][5][6].
The current electoral map presents significant hurdles for Democrats. The Republican advantage is further supported by a structural map requiring Democrats to defend vulnerable seats in states such as Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire [7][5][6]. To regain the majority, Democrats also need to flip seats in challenging states like North Carolina and Maine [7][5][6]. Decision Desk HQ indicates that for Democrats to flip the Senate, they must secure victories in at least two battleground states that Donald Trump carried by 11 to 14 percentage points in 2024, which represents a significant structural barrier [1][2][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 2United States Senate elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  3. 3DDHQ Votes - Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 CPR Senate Race ratingscookpolitical.com
  5. 52026 Senate Election Odds: The Races That Decide It | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  6. 6What to expect when you’re not expecting a clear Senate winner – Roll Callrollcall.com
  7. 7The 2026 midterm races that could flip Senate control | Fox Newsfoxnews.com

7. Which upcoming economic data releases, such as the Q3 2026 GDP and final pre-election jobs reports, could significantly shift the generic congressional ballot?

Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate releaseOctober 29, 2026 [1][2]
Key pre-election jobs reportsAugust 2026 (September 4) and September 2026 (October 2) [3][2]
Presidential approval on economyLow approval ratings [4][5]
Key economic reports significantly influence the generic congressional ballot. The Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate, scheduled for release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 29, 2026, is a critical data point [1][2]. Regarding employment data, the August 2026 report (released September 4) and the September 2026 report (released October 2) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are considered the most significant pre-election jobs reports, despite a final report due on November 6, 2026, which falls after the November 3, 2026 election [3][2]. These releases play a major role in shaping voter perceptions of the incumbent administration's economic management [4][5].
Broader economic indicators profoundly influence voter perceptions and election outcomes. Economic data, particularly concerning inflation (CPI), jobs, and GDP, impacts the generic congressional ballot by influencing how voters perceive the incumbent administration's handling of the economy [4]. It is well-established that voter perceptions of economic performance are crucial determinants of midterm electoral outcomes [5]. The current 2026 electoral context is characterized by persistent concerns over inflation and the economic repercussions of the administration's foreign policy actions, notably the war with Iran and its effect on energy prices [6][7]. President Trump's management of these central issues is currently associated with low approval ratings [4][5].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
  2. 2Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns — United States | GrayscaleInsightgrayscaleinsight.com
  3. 32026 U.S. Economic Calendarguggenheiminvestments.com
  4. 4As the 2026 Midterms Approach, Economy Is Front and...pewresearch.org
  5. 5US Elections Review & Analysisqera.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Messy primaries plague both major political parties, causing...ap.org
  7. 7Trump has a new, surprising take on the higher cost of livingap.org

8. Which election models from sources like the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ provide ratings for the 46 key House battleground districts?

Ballotpedia Battleground Districts46 districts [1]
Cook Political Report Toss Up Races18 races (as of July 16, 2026) [2][3][4][5]
Decision Desk HQ Forecast LaunchJuly 15, 2026 [6][7][8][9]
Major organizations provide extensive ratings for U.S. House battleground districts. Ballotpedia has identified 46 specific districts as crucial battleground races for the 2026 elections [1]. Both The Cook Political Report (CPR) and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) models offer comprehensive ratings for U.S. House districts, including these competitive races [1][10][11]. These leading forecasting outlets continuously update their race ratings for individual districts, encompassing battleground areas [10][11].
The Cook Political Report provides nonpartisan ratings with a detailed scale. CPR offers nonpartisan ratings for all 435 U.S. House seats [2][3][4][5]. Its system utilizes a seven-point scale that includes categories such as Solid, Likely, Lean, and Toss Up, indicating varying levels of competitiveness [2][3][4][5]. As of July 16, 2026, CPR had rated 18 House races as Toss Up, signifying their highly competitive nature [2][3][4][5].
Decision Desk HQ offers probabilistic forecasts for all House seats. DDHQ initiated its 2026 U.S. House forecast on July 15, 2026, delivering probabilistic forecasts and ratings for all 435 House seats [6][7][8][9]. The DDHQ model provides ratings such as Safe, Likely, Lean, and Toss Up, allowing users to rank districts by their competitive standing [12][13][6].
Sources (13)
  1. 1United States House of Representatives elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 CPR House Race ratingscookpolitical.com
  3. 3CPR Race Ratingscookpolitical.com
  4. 4Find a Racecookpolitical.com
  5. 5Cook Political Report 2026 House Ratings270towin.com
  6. 6Decision Desk HQ Releases 2026 Congressional Forecast...decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Where the polls stand as Decision Desk HQ launches its...decisiondeskhq.substack.com
  8. 8Decision Desk HQ forecast: Democrats favored to flip Housefacebook.com
  9. 9DDHQ FORECAST: The first edition of our...instagram.com
  10. 10Iowa's 1st Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  11. 11California's 22nd Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  12. 122026 U.S. House Forecast | Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  13. 132026 Election Forecast - DDHQ Votes - Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

9. How do President Trump's approval ratings in mid-2026 compare to those of past presidents heading into their first midterm, and what does this historically suggest for the Republican Party?

Second-term Net Approval (August 2026)-20.6 to -25 percentage points [1][2][3][4][5]
Second-term Approval (August 2026)36% [1][2][3][4][5]
Avg. House Seats Lost (President Approval below 50%)37 seats [6][7]
President Donald Trump's approval ratings have significantly declined, reaching a second-term low in mid-2026. As of August 2026, his net approval rating ranges from approximately -20.6 to -25 percentage points, with his approval at about 36% and disapproval near 60% [1][2][3][4][5]. His average approval rating in early August 2026 is 39%, matching the lowest point observed during his second term [8]. This current standing represents a notable decline compared to the same stage in his first term, when his approval was 43% and his net approval was -11.3, indicating a roughly 9-point stronger position than his current standing in 2026 [2][8].
Historically, low presidential approval suggests significant midterm challenges for the incumbent party. When a president's job approval falls below 50% ahead of midterm elections, their party has typically faced substantial losses, averaging 37 House seats [6][7]. In contrast, presidents with approval ratings above 50% saw their party lose an average of 14 seats [6][7]. The president's party frequently experiences a "midterm curse," often losing congressional seats, a pattern observed in 20 out of 22 midterm elections since 1938 [6][9][10][11]. President Trump's current approval, well below the 50% threshold, coupled with downward pressure on issue-specific approval for areas like the economy and foreign policy, suggests a difficult environment for the Republican Party leading into the 2026 midterms [8][6][7][12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Donald Trump's approval ratingeconomist.com
  2. 2Trump Approval Rating: Latest Pollsnatesilver.net
  3. 3Donald Trump Approval Polls and Average for 2026fiftyplusone.news
  4. 4Trump's Polling Numbers Hit a New Low. Don't Expect Him...nytimes.com
  5. 5Trump's State-by-State Approval Ratings Bleak 3 Months...usnews.com
  6. 6What history tells us about the 2026 midterm electionsbrookings.edu
  7. 7Midterm Seat Loss Averages 37 for Unpopular Presidentsnews.gallup.com
  8. 8Trump ends July with second term low approval ratingnews.ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Historical U.S. House results during presidential cycles - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  10. 10Political context of state legislative elections, 2016 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Why The President’s Party Almost Always Has A Bad Midterm | FiveThirtyEightweb.archive.org
  12. 12US Elections Review & Analysisqera.decisiondeskhq.com
  13. 13Trump's approval on economy falls in AP-NORC poll, showing...ap.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key catalysts influencing the 2026 midterm markets include presidential approval ratings for President Trump, economic performance metrics such as inflation and unemployment, generic ballot polling, and structural factors like mid-decade redistricting [1][2][3][4]. The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats contested [5][6][7]. As of early August 2026, prediction markets generally favor a split Congress or a Democratic House, with Republicans often favored to retain a Senate majority [2][6][8]. Forecasts as of August 6, 2026, suggest a likely divided Congress, assigning Democrats a 62% probability to win the U.S. House and Republicans a 57% probability to maintain control of the U.S. Senate [9].
Specific market drivers include bullish signals for Democrats, such as a 4% lead in the generic congressional ballot average and a strong historical generic ballot lead compared to previous midterm years [9][10]. Conversely, bearish factors for the administration include President Trump's low job approval rating, at 42% approval and 55% disapproval, and specifically weak performance on the economy [9][11]. Mid-decade redistricting in several states, including Texas, Florida, California, and Ohio, has also introduced uncertainty and potential for shifts in U.S. House seats [12].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (12)
  1. 12026 Midterm Election Odds: House and Senate Marketsinsidepredictions.com
  2. 2Inside 100 Days to the Midterms. Democrats Have a Path to the Senate. Here's the Prediction Market Math. - Prediction Authoritypredictionauthority.com
  3. 32026 Midterm Elections: Prediction Market Odds and Trading Guide - PredictMarkets.compredictmarkets.com
  4. 4Polymarket 2026 Elections: Complete Midterm Prediction Markets Guide | Polymarket Blogpolymarketblog.com
  5. 5The 2026 Midterms: Key Dates and Eventsbipartisanpolicy.org
  6. 6Who will control Congress in 2026? Latest polls, odds and forecastsusatoday.com
  7. 72026 Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing...fec.gov
  8. 82026 US Midterm Elections | Metaculusmetaculus.com
  9. 9Decision Desk HQ Releases 2026 Congressional Forecast Model | DDHQdecisiondeskhq.com
  10. 10Democrats have the second-highest generic ballot lead in May of any midterm year - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  11. 11Trump's approval on economy falls in AP-NORC poll, showing new warning signs for president | The Associated Pressap.org
  12. 12Redistricting is rampant ahead of the US House midterm elections. What states are taking action? | The Associated Pressap.org