Brazil Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Expired Markets (16)

Brazil Gubernatorial Elections: Most Governorships Won Kalshi

PL

Market Model 68.0% 70.3%

PSD

Market Model 21.0% 19.6%

6.8K contracts

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$140.4M

São Paulo Governor Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$284.4K

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$293.7K

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$323.4K

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$324.0K

Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$355.4K

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$480.1K

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$549.3K

Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi

Flávio Bolsonaro

Market Model 26.0% 22.3%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Market Model 68.0% 70.3%

2.9M contracts

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$4.4M

Who will run for President of Brazil? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

99.5K contracts

São Paulo Governor winner? Kalshi

Tarcísio de Freitas

Market Model 91.0% 91.7%

Fernando Haddad

Market Model 8.0% 8.3%

24.4K contracts

Brazil presidential election: first round winner? Kalshi

Flávio Bolsonaro

Market Model 46.0% 35.9%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Market Model 52.0% 48.6%

11.8K contracts

Rio de Janeiro Governor winner? Kalshi

Wilson Witzel

Market Model 5.0% 97.0%

Anthony Garotinho

Market Model 0.0% 0.9%

1 contracts

Minas Gerais Governor winner? Kalshi

Cleitinho Azevedo

Market Model 62.0% 86.1%

Mateus Simões

Market Model 10.0% 13.4%

722 contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Brazil Gubernatorial Elections: Most Governorships Won Top outcome: PL	68.0%	70.3%	High	—
Brazil Presidential Election	—	—	High	81
São Paulo Governor Election Winner	—	—	High	80
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won	—	—	High	73
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory	—	—	High	77
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner	—	—	High	80
Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner	—	—	High	76
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?	—	—	Med	74
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place	—	—	Med	80
Brazil Presidential election winner? Top outcome: Flávio Bolsonaro	26.0%	22.3%	High	—
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place	—	—	High	79
Who will run for President of Brazil?	—	—	Med	74
São Paulo Governor winner? Top outcome: Tarcísio de Freitas	91.0%	91.7%	High	—
Brazil presidential election: first round winner? Top outcome: Flávio Bolsonaro	46.0%	35.9%	High	—
Rio de Janeiro Governor winner? Top outcome: Wilson Witzel	5.0%	97.0%	High	—
Minas Gerais Governor winner? Top outcome: Cleitinho Azevedo	62.0%	86.1%	High	—

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