Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket
Tarcisio de Freitas
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Renan Santos
Market Model 1.7% 2.0%
Brazil Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (15)
São Paulo Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Tarcísio de Freitas
Market Model 96.8% 97.5%
Kim Kataguiri
Market Model 0.1% 0.0%
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Polymarket
PL
Market Model 77.0% 80.7%
MDB
Market Model 16.3% 16.9%
Renan Santos Victory
Market Model 0.9% 0.9%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
Market Model 26.1% 15.2%
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Fred Pacheco
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Eduardo Paes
Market Model 96.7% 91.8%
Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Cleitinho Azevedo
Market Model 69.8% 73.2%
Alexandre Kalil
Market Model 9.0% 8.5%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 96.1% 95.6%
Tarcisio de Frietas
Market Model 0.5% 0.2%
Renan Santos
Market Model 52.0% 50.4%
Ratinho Júnior
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Flávio Bolsonaro
Market Model 26.0% 22.3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 68.0% 70.3%
Renan Santos
Market Model 6.0% 6.8%
Fernando Haddad
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 83.0% 88.9%
Flávio Bolsonaro
Market Model 86.0% 85.9%
São Paulo Governor winner? Kalshi
Tarcísio de Freitas
Market Model 91.0% 91.7%
Fernando Haddad
Market Model 8.0% 8.3%
Flávio Bolsonaro
Market Model 46.0% 35.9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 52.0% 48.6%
Wilson Witzel
Market Model 5.0% 97.0%
Anthony Garotinho
Market Model 0.0% 0.9%
Cleitinho Azevedo
Market Model 62.0% 86.1%
Mateus Simões
Market Model 10.0% 13.4%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Presidential Election Top outcome: Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| São Paulo Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Tarcísio de Freitas | 96.8% | 97.5% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Top outcome: PL | 77.0% | 80.7% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Renan Santos Victory | 0.9% | 0.9% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Fred Pacheco | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Cleitinho Azevedo | 69.8% | 73.2% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Top outcome: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 96.1% | 95.6% | Med | 73 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos | 52.0% | 50.4% | Med | 80 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential election winner? Top outcome: Flávio Bolsonaro | 26.0% | 22.3% | High | 91 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos | 6.0% | 6.8% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Who will run for President of Brazil? Top outcome: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 83.0% | 88.9% | Med | 79 | Refresh |
| São Paulo Governor winner? Top outcome: Tarcísio de Freitas | 91.0% | 91.7% | High | 95 | Refresh |
| Brazil presidential election: first round winner? Top outcome: Flávio Bolsonaro | 46.0% | 35.9% | High | 86 | Refresh |
| Rio de Janeiro Governor winner? Top outcome: Wilson Witzel | 5.0% | 97.0% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Minas Gerais Governor winner? Top outcome: Cleitinho Azevedo | 62.0% | 86.1% | High | 87 | Refresh |
