Short Answer

The model predicts Cleitinho Azevedo as the most likely winner of the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election with 86.1% probability, significantly higher than the market's 62.0%, due to his consistent lead in current polls and strong performance in hypothetical second-round scenarios.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by a single, dramatic event. The chart shows the contract opening at a very low probability of 1.0% on April 25 before experiencing a massive spike to 62.0% by April 28. Since this extraordinary upward movement, the price has completely stabilized, holding steady at the 62.0% level. The overall trend is therefore sharply upward, though all of the price appreciation occurred in a very short window. The market has since entered a period of zero volatility, with the price action moving sideways.
Given the available information, there is no specific news or external catalyst to account for the sudden and extreme repricing from 1.0% to 62.0%. The move appears to be a purely technical reaction within the market itself. While the total volume of 703 contracts indicates some participation, the price has remained flat since the initial surge, suggesting low subsequent trading activity. This pattern can imply that the initial move was highly decisive, potentially driven by one or more traders with strong conviction, and the rest of the market has not yet challenged this new price. The 62.0% level is now acting as a significant point of resistance and consensus. The market sentiment has undergone a radical shift, moving from a near-certain "no" to a probable "yes," and is currently holding at this new conviction level.
  • Cleitinho Azevedo consistently leads current polls, winning all second-round scenarios.
  • Rodrigo Pacheco holds strategic backing from PT and President Lula.
  • PT+União Brasil coalition ensures the largest share of free advertising time.
  • Mateus Simões polls very low, facing resistance consolidating Zema's support.
  • Advertising time allocation is based on 2022 Chamber of Deputies representation.
  • Lack of data on Cleitinho's rejection ceiling creates runoff uncertainty.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Cleitinho Azevedo 62.0% 86.1% Model higher by 24.1pp
Mateus Simões 10.0% 13.4% Model higher by 3.4pp
Alexandre Kalil 0.0% 0.0% Model and market aligned
Carlos Viana 0.0% 0.0% Model and market aligned
Gabriel Azevedo 0.0% 0.0% Model and market aligned

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to YES if Cleitinho Azevedo wins the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election, as officially certified by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) and subsequently inaugurated or recognized as the winner by the inauguration date; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opens on April 25, 2026, and closes upon official declaration of the winner, with a projected payout 30 minutes after closing, or by October 4, 2027, if no earlier resolution occurs. Contested results are settled by the final certified outcome, and if results are annulled before inauguration, the market remains open until a re-run election or a two-year deadline from the original date.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Cleitinho Azevedo $0.61 $0.45 62%
Mateus Simões $0.12 $0.97 10%
Alexandre Kalil $0.12 $0.97 0%
Carlos Viana $0.05 $1.00 0%
Gabriel Azevedo $0.05 $1.00 0%
Rodrigo Pacheco $0.28 $0.81 0%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 82 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score94Strong
Trade quality20% of score33High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score82Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
95Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
37Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

5 contracts · worst first · 1 below the volume floor — not scored

Cleitinho Azevedo37
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Mateus Simões45
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Rodrigo Pacheco—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Alexandre Kalil—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Gabriel Azevedo—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
66Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

5 contracts · worst first · 1 below the volume floor — not scored

Mateus Simões63
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Gabriel Azevedo69
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 7d

Cleitinho Azevedo—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rodrigo Pacheco—
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Alexandre Kalil—
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

5 contracts · worst first · 1 below the volume floor — not scored

Cleitinho Azevedo95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Rodrigo Pacheco95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Mateus Simões95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Alexandre Kalil95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Gabriel Azevedo95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
33High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 37 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 89.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 4.1c slippage (~5% of a 89.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

1 below the volume floor — not scored

Cleitinho Azevedo37Market scoreLiquidity37Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 37
Liquidity
37 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Rodrigo Pacheco–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Mateus Simões45Market scoreLiquidity45Move quality63Rule clarity95
Why 45
Liquidity
45 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
63 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Alexandre Kalil–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Gabriel Azevedo–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality69Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
69 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 7d

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. Will Mateus Simões Consolidate Support as Zema's Successor?

Mateus Simões' Poll Support5.5% [1]
Rodrigo Pacheco's Poll Support28.6% [1]
Cleitinho's Poll Support32.7% [1]
Mateus Simões faces significant obstacles to inheriting Governor Zema's political capital. Despite Governor Romeu Zema's intention for Simões to succeed him [2] and Simões temporarily assuming the governorship [3], he encounters considerable resistance. Polling data indicates Mateus Simões currently garners only 5.5% voter support [1]. Reports further suggest he is struggling to gain traction as Zema's intended successor, as the electorate expresses a clear desire for change [4]. These factors significantly limit the complete consolidation of Zema's political machine and the Novo party behind Simões.
Support for the anti-PT front fractures among multiple center-right candidates. Senator Rodrigo Pacheco, a prominent center-right figure, polls substantially higher than Simões at 28.6% [1]. Pacheco has also explicitly declared an independent candidacy, opting against aligning with Zema's preferred successor [5]. Furthermore, Senator Cleitinho currently leads the gubernatorial race with 32.7% of voter intention [1]. The strong performances of both Pacheco and Cleitinho, coupled with the expressed desire for change among voters and Simões's low poll numbers, collectively indicate a fragmented anti-PT front with support distributed across multiple center-right figures.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Eleições em Minas: Cleitinho lidera com 32,7%, seguido de Pacheco com 28,6%, diz pesquisa AtlasInteltribunademinas.com.br
  2. 2Mateus Simões enfrenta resistência para herdar capital político de Zemaem.com.br
  3. 3Zema renuncia e Mateus Simões assume governo de MGgazetadopovo.com.br
  4. 4Quaest: Sucessor de Zema patina em MG enquanto eleitor sinaliza desejo de mudançainfomoney.com.br
  5. 5Pacheco diz que respeita PSD escolher Simões: 'Mas não concordo'em.com.br

6. Who Is Building a Stronger Political Machine in Minas Gerais?

Mateus Simões's RoleVice-Governor and President of Associação Mineira de Municípios (AMM) [1]
Simões's Key RegionsPrioritizing Triângulo Mineiro and engaged in Zona da Mata [2], [3], [4]
Cleitinho Azevedo's SupportSecured explicit mayoral support and inviting Patos de Minas mayor to ticket [5], [6]
Mateus Simões demonstrates significant early success building a statewide political machine. As Vice-Governor of Minas Gerais and, crucially, President of the Associação Mineira de Municípios (AMM), he leverages existing institutional connections with mayors and local party leaders across the state [1]. His commitment to direct regional engagement is highlighted by a planned "tour de 100 dias pelo interior de MG," with the first stop in the Triângulo Mineiro [2], [7]. Simões has explicitly stated his focus on the Triângulo Mineiro and aims for a government with a strong presence outside the capital, signaling a concentrated effort to secure local support in this decisive area [3]. He has also detailed "Governo Presente" agendas in the Triângulo [8] and engaged in the Zona da Mata region, specifically in Juiz de Fora [4].
Cleitinho Azevedo also secures local endorsements, focusing on key regions. He has received "liberated" support from the mayor of Divinópolis [5], [9]. Importantly for the Triângulo Mineiro, Cleitinho extended an invitation to the mayor of Patos de Minas, located in the Alto Paranaíba/Triângulo Mineiro region, to join a potential gubernatorial ticket [6]. This direct invitation signifies a concrete effort to forge a strong local alliance in a key electoral area. While both candidates are actively seeking local support, Mateus Simões's existing institutional connections through the AMM provide a more systemic advantage for widespread mayoral and local party endorsements from the outset, contributing to a more established and comprehensive early success in network building beyond his immediate base.
Sources (9)
  1. 1Sucessão em MG tem embate entre vice governador e presidente da AMMtribunademinas.com.br
  2. 2Agora como governador, Mateus Simões planeja tour de 100 dias pelo interior de MG; 1ª parada será no Triângulosoupatos.com.br
  3. 3Mateus Simões aposta no Triângulo e promete governo fora de BH – Regionalzão – Maior portal do interior de Minasregionalzao.com.br
  4. 4Nikolas e Mateus Simões visitam Juiz de Foratribunademinas.com.br
  5. 5Novo libera apoio de Gleidson Azevedo a Cleitinho em caso de candidatura ao governoofator.com.br
  6. 6Cleitinho convida prefeito de Patos de Minas para possível chapa ao Governo de Minas - Portal Geraisportalgerais.com
  7. 7Mateus Simões fará governo itinerante nos cem primeiros dias de mandatotribunademinas.com.br
  8. 8Agência Minas Gerais | Governador de Minas detalha agendas do Governo Presente no Triânguloagenciaminas.mg.gov.br
  9. 9'Cleitinho tem voto da esquerda e da direita', diz Gleidson Azevedomidias.em.com.br

7. What Are PT's Alliance Strategies for Minas Gerais 2026 Elections?

PT Minas Gerais StrategyPrioritizes alliances, no own gubernatorial candidate for 2026 [1]
Preferred Gubernatorial CandidateRodrigo Pacheco (PSD) backed by PT and Lula [2]
Alexandre Kalil's RoleExpected to run for a Senate seat [3]
The Workers' Party (PT) pursues a broad front alliance in Minas Gerais. The national Workers' Party (PT) is strategically forming a "broad front" with Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD) for the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election. President Lula actively pressures Pacheco to contest the state's governorship, aiming to establish a strong political platform and counter Bolsonarista influence [2]. This strategy reflects PT's decision to prioritize alliances over nominating its own gubernatorial candidate in Minas Gerais [1].
PT's plan places Pacheco as governor, with Kalil and Marília in the Senate. PT leadership has articulated a plan positioning Pacheco as the gubernatorial candidate, with Alexandre Kalil and Marília Campos (PT) forming a joint Senate ticket [3]. Internal negotiations consistently indicate Kalil is expected to run for a Senate position within this coalition, despite his expressed beliefs regarding the elections [3]. This approach establishes a robust slate, with Pacheco's candidacy anticipated to be formally launched after July [4]. The PT considers a gubernatorial run for Tadeuzinho and Kalil only if Pacheco ultimately declines to enter the race, affirming Pacheco as the primary and preferred candidate for the "broad front" [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Sem candidato em Minas, PT vai priorizar aliançasem.com.br
  2. 2Lula pressures Pacheco to run for governor of Minas Gerais and seeks a strong platform for 2026 | Brasil 247en.brasil247.com
  3. 3PT aposta em Pacheco para o governo de Minas Gerais e articula chapa com Kalil e Marília ao Senadocbn.globo.com
  4. 4Eleições 2026: Pacheco deve ser lançado em Minas após julho e PT busca levar União para coligação - Estadãoestadao.com.br
  5. 5Em cenário sem Pacheco, PT aposta em Tadeuzinho e Kalil em MG | CNN Brasilcnnbrasil.com.br

8. What are Cleitinho Azevedo's latest poll numbers for Minas Gerais Governor?

Highest Poll IntentionsUp to 45.6% [1]
Second-Round ProjectionWins all hypothetical scenarios [2]
Confirmed Lead SourcesQuaest and Correio Braziliense [3]
Cleitinho Azevedo consistently leads polls for Minas Gerais governor. Public opinion surveys currently position him as the frontrunner in the contest. Polls indicate his support levels vary, with some showing him leading with up to 40% of voting intentions [4]. A survey by Paraná Pesquisas placed his support at 45.6% [1]. Additional reports by Quaest and Correio Braziliense also highlight his lead in the gubernatorial race [3].
Azevedo shows strong runoff viability, but a rejection ceiling remains unquantified. Available research suggests his strong performance in potential second-round situations, with one poll indicating he "would win all second-round scenarios" [2]. However, the provided web research does not contain specific data regarding a quantifiable "rejection ceiling" for Cleitinho Azevedo. Furthermore, it lacks detailed analysis of private polling or voter sentiment within particular demographics, such as moderate women in the Belo Horizonte metro area. Consequently, based solely on the available information, a precise "rejection ceiling" or its specific impact on targeted demographics cannot be quantified.
Sources (4)
  1. 1With 45,6%, Cleitinho leads the race for governor of Minas Gerais, according to Paraná Pesquisas | Brasil 247en.brasil247.com
  2. 2Cleitinho Azevedo lidera disputa pelo governo de Minas e venceria todos os cenários de 2º turno, aponta pesquisa | Tecle Mídiateclemidia.com
  3. 3Cleitinho lidera disputa pelo governo de MG, diz Quaestpoder360.com.br
  4. 4TDTNEWS-Jornalismo Imparcialtdtnews.com.br

9. How Will Coalitions Impact 2026 Minas Gerais Election Ad Time?

Ad Time DeterminationParty representation in 2022 Chamber of Deputies [1]
Largest 2022 Party Ad TimePL with 2 minutes 24 seconds [2]
Key 2026 Minas Gerais CoalitionPT seeking alliance with União Brasil [3]
Advertising time is crucial, allocated based on 2022 Chamber of Deputies representation. The allocation of free television and radio advertising time for the 2026 elections in Brazil, including the Minas Gerais gubernatorial race, is primarily determined by a party's or coalition's representation in the Chamber of Deputies from the previous 2022 general election [1]. In 2022, the Partido Liberal (PL) secured the largest individual share with 2 minutes and 24 seconds, followed by the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) with 2 minutes and 12 seconds, and União Brasil with 1 minute and 58 seconds [2].
A PT-União Brasil alliance will likely secure the largest advertising bloc. For the Minas Gerais Governor election in 2026, the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) is actively working to form a coalition that includes União Brasil [3]. This alliance, leveraging their combined strength from the 2022 election where PT held the second-largest bloc and União Brasil the third, would likely secure the largest bloc of free television and radio advertising time for their candidate [2]. This provides a substantial advantage in campaign outreach and voter engagement.
Right-wing fragmentation hinders their ability to form a competitive advertising bloc. While other political figures like Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD) are expected to announce candidacies, the right-wing in Minas Gerais is reportedly facing difficulties in uniting to form a strong ticket [4]. Despite the Partido Liberal (PL) having secured the most individual party time in 2022 [2], internal fragmentation among potential right-wing allies could hinder their ability to coalesce into a formidable advertising bloc compared to a unified PT-União Brasil coalition [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Tempo de TV nas eleições intensifica disputa por alianças | Brasil 247brasil247.com
  2. 2Eleições 2026 - Confira o tempo de propaganda na TV de cada partido - Revista Fórumrevistaforum.com.br
  3. 3Eleições 2026: Pacheco deve ser lançado em Minas após julho e PT busca levar União para coligação - Estadãoestadao.com.br
  4. 4Direita bate cabeça para montar chapa em Minasem.com.br