World Elections Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (8)

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket

Tarcisio de Freitas

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

Renan Santos

Market Model 1.7% 2.0%

$140.4M Refresh

Presidential Election Winner 2028 Polymarket

LeBron James

Market Model 0.1% 0.4%

Tim Walz

Market Model 0.1% 40.0%

$696.1M Refresh

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket

Byron Donalds

Market Model 0.4% 0.5%

Mike Pence

Market Model 0.2% 50.0%

$693.3M Refresh

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket

Oprah Winfrey

Market Model 0.3% 0.4%

Bernie Sanders

Market Model 0.4% 0.5%

$1268.4M Refresh

Bulgaria Presidential Election Polymarket

Iliana Iotova

Market Model 74.0% 77.3%

Rosen Zhelyazkov

Market Model 0.3% 0.4%

$332.9K Refresh

Quebec General Election Winner Polymarket

PCQ

Market Model 0.1% 0.5%

PVQ

Market Model 0.1% 0.5%

$736.9K Refresh

Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket

Democratic Party

Market Model 46.0% 41.6%

Republican Party

Market Model 55.0% 58.4%

Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket

Democratic Party

Market Model 87.0% 88.4%

Republican Party

Market Model 14.0% 11.6%

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Brazil Presidential Election Top outcome: Tarcisio de Freitas	0.1%	0.1%	High	81	Refresh
Presidential Election Winner 2028 Top outcome: LeBron James	0.1%	0.4%	Med	76	Refresh
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Byron Donalds	0.4%	0.5%	Med	40	Refresh
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Oprah Winfrey	0.3%	0.4%	High	40	Refresh
Bulgaria Presidential Election Top outcome: Iliana Iotova	74.0%	77.3%	High	78	Refresh
Quebec General Election Winner Top outcome: PCQ	0.1%	0.5%	High	79	Refresh
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party	46.0%	41.6%	High	79	Refresh
Which party will win the House in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party	87.0%	88.4%	High	78	Refresh

Expired Markets (8)

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$24.3M

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$456.1K

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$663.4K

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$872.5K

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$1.3M

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$2.9M

Berlin State Election Winner Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$3.2M

Next Prime Minister of Sweden Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$3.4M

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?	—	—	High	—
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner	—	—	High	80
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner	—	—	High	—
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner	—	—	Med	—
Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner	—	—	High	78
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner	—	—	High	—
Berlin State Election Winner	—	—	High	74
Next Prime Minister of Sweden	—	—	High	69

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