Delcy Rodríguez
Market Model 15.0% 9.9%
María Corina Machado
Market Model 2.4% 0.8%
International Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (9)
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 13.1%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 10.9%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 10.6%
Hungary
Market Model 4.6% 1.6%
Italy
Market Model 4.0% 1.4%
Hungary
Market Model 3.0% 1.2%
Greece
Market Model 4.0% 0.9%
Chen Jining
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Ding Xuexiang
Market Model 21.0% 23.1%
Who will the next Pope be? Kalshi
Pietro Parolin
Market Model 8.2% 22.3%
Peter Erdo
Market Model 3.0% 11.2%
Naftali Bennett
Market Model 31.0% 30.6%
Israel Katz
Market Model 14.0% 13.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Delcy Rodríguez | 15.0% | 9.9% | Med | 75 | Refresh |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 17.0% | 13.1% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada? Yes refers to: Before the next general election | 22.0% | 10.9% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| EU loses a member before 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 14.0% | 10.6% | Med | 75 | Refresh |
| Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030? Top outcome: Hungary | 4.6% | 1.6% | Med | 39 | Refresh |
| What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU? Top outcome: Hungary | 3.0% | 1.2% | Med | 62 | Refresh |
| Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor? Top outcome: Chen Jining | 1.0% | 1.0% | High | 54 | Refresh |
| Who will the next Pope be? Top outcome: Pietro Parolin | 8.2% | 22.3% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel? Top outcome: Naftali Bennett | 31.0% | 30.6% | High | 69 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (9)
30 or more
Market Model 70.0% 100.0%
36 or more
Market Model 98.0% 100.0%
34 or more
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
12 or more
Market Model 17.0% 34.8%
Volt
Market Model 73.0% 70.0%
FDP
Market Model 13.0% 10.0%
CDU
Market Model 99.0% 87.7%
AfD
Market Model 2.0% 2.1%
At least 20%
Market Model 4.0% 1.0%
At least 23%
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
At least 13%
Market Model 98.0% 99.9%
At least 19%
Market Model 98.0% 99.9%
At least 20%
Market Model 4.0% 12.0%
At least 26%
Market Model 4.0% 4.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Rupert Lowe
Market Model 6.0% 6.0%
Nigel Farage
Market Model 10.0% 16.4%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quebec general election: PLQ number of seats? Top outcome: 30 or more | 70.0% | 100.0% | High | — | |
| Quebec general election: CAQ number of seats? Top outcome: 34 or more | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | — | |
| Which of these parties will win a seat in the Berlin state election? Top outcome: Volt | 73.0% | 70.0% | Med | — | |
| Berlin State Election: 2nd Place Top outcome: CDU | 99.0% | 87.7% | High | — | |
| Swedish general election: Sweden Democrats vote percent Top outcome: At least 20% | 4.0% | 1.0% | High | — | |
| Swedish general election: Moderate Party vote percent Top outcome: At least 13% | 98.0% | 99.9% | High | — | |
| Saxony-Anhalt state election: CDU vote percent Top outcome: At least 20% | 4.0% | 12.0% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? Top outcome: Rupert Lowe | 6.0% | 6.0% | High | — |
