Swedish general election: Sweden Democrats vote percent
Short Answer
The Sweden Democrats are unlikely to achieve at least 22% of the popular vote, as preliminary 2026 general election results indicate they received approximately 17.6%; the market prices this outcome at 5.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's price collapsed following the release of preliminary election results on September 14. The Sweden Democrats were reported to have secured 17.6% of the vote. This result is inconsistent with the contract's apparent resolution target, which the market's name suggests is a 15% vote share. Consequently, the contract's price fell from 42.0% on September 8 to 4.0% once the initial count was published.
Before the election, the market traded in a stable range between 39.0% and 42.0%, reflecting significant perceived odds that the party's final vote share would align with the contract's specific terms. The price held steady until the official preliminary numbers provided a data point that moved the likely outcome far from the resolution trigger. Total volume reached 7,516 contracts.
- The Sweden Democrats' vote share likely falls below 18% per preliminary results.
- This reflects a vote decline from 20.5% in the 2022 general election.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 20% | 4.0% | 1.0% | Preliminary results show the Sweden Democrats' 17.6% of the vote is well below 20%. |
| At least 23% | 3.0% | 1.0% | Preliminary results show the Sweden Democrats' 17.6% of the vote is well below 23%. |
| At least 25% | 1.0% | 1.0% | Preliminary results show the Sweden Democrats' 17.6% of the vote is well below 25%. |
| At least 28% | 1.0% | 1.0% | Preliminary results show the Sweden Democrats' 17.6% of the vote is well below 28%. |
| At least 21% | 2.0% | 1.0% | Preliminary results show the Sweden Democrats' 17.6% of the vote is well below 21%. |
Current Context
The Swedish general election remains too close to call. A September 14, 2026 report cited a preliminary count from the September 13, 2026 election, indicating the Sweden Democrats received 17.6% of the vote [^]. The centre-left opposition bloc maintains a narrow projected lead over the right-wing governing bloc [^][^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 18%
📉 September 13, 2026: 79.0pp drop
Price decreased from 81.0% to 2.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the official announcement of the Swedish general election results on September 13, 2026 [^][^]. The Sweden Democrats received approximately 17.6% to 17.9% of the vote [^][^][^], which fell below the "At least 18%" threshold for the market outcome. This traditional news event caused the market price for the "At least 18%" outcome to drop significantly, aligning with the confirmed election results. No social media activity was identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant to this specific market movement.
📉 September 12, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 93.0% to 81.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 12.0 percentage point drop in the "At least 18%" prediction market for the Sweden Democrats on September 12, 2026, was likely a downward revision of their projected vote share based on pre-election indicators. While specific social media activity or news from September 12 is not detailed in the provided sources, post-election reports confirmed the Sweden Democrats received 17.6% to 17.9% of the vote [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This outcome marked their first decline in support and fell below the 18% threshold [^][^], aligning with the market's downturn. Based on the available information, social media activity was irrelevant to this movement.
Outcome: At least 23%
📉 September 11, 2026: 56.0pp drop
Price decreased from 66.0% to 10.0%
What happened: The 56.0 percentage point drop for the "At least 23%" outcome on September 11, 2026, anticipated the Sweden Democrats' actual vote share, which preliminary results released on September 14, 2026, showed at approximately 17.6% [^]. This outcome was significantly below the 23% threshold, representing a decline from their 2022 performance [^]. However, the provided research does not include specific social media activity, posts from key figures, or breaking news announcements on or around September 11, 2026, that directly explain the immediate driver of this market movement. Therefore, based on the available information, social media cannot be definitively identified as a primary driver for this particular price drop.
📈 September 10, 2026: 58.0pp spike
Price increased from 8.0% to 66.0%
What happened: The reported 58.0 percentage point spike on September 10, 2026, for the Sweden Democrats appears to be unsubstantiated. Web research indicates that this specific market movement and any corresponding election event or polling anomaly on that date are not supported by factual or electoral records [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While some sources refer to a Swedish general election in September 2026 [^][^][^], other sources explicitly state there was no such election taking place in September 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, social media activity cannot be identified as a primary driver for an uncorroborated event and is deemed irrelevant.
Outcome: At least 19%
📈 September 08, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 55.0% to 69.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify any specific social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors to explain a 14.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for the Sweden Democrats' vote share on September 08, 2026. Major polls in early September 2026 indicated the Sweden Democrats were already polling around 18.8% to 18.9% [^][^], suggesting the "At least 19%" outcome was within expectation rather than requiring a sudden 14-point probability surge. No social media posts from key figures, including specific claims, sources, or timing relative to the price move, or any viral narratives, were found to lead or coincide with such a dramatic market movement. Consequently, based on the available information, social media appears irrelevant, and a primary driver for the reported price spike cannot be determined.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if the Sweden Democrats' vote percent in the Swedish general election is 18% or higher, based exclusively on the Riksdag ballot (excluding regional or municipal votes). It resolves NO if their vote percent is less than 18% for the Riksdag ballot. The maximum payout date for this market is September 13, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 15% | $1.00 | $0.05 | 99% |
| At least 17% | $1.00 | $0.05 | 89% |
| At least 22% | $0.04 | $1.00 | 5% |
| At least 20% | $0.04 | $0.99 | 4% |
| At least 23% | $0.04 | $1.00 | 3% |
| At least 18% | $0.09 | $0.97 | 2% |
| At least 19% | $0.07 | $1.00 | 2% |
| At least 21% | $0.06 | $1.00 | 2% |
| At least 25% | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| At least 28% | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
In the September 13, 2026, Swedish general election, the Sweden Democrats received approximately 17.6% to 17.9% of the vote, marking a decline from their 20.5% share in 2022 [^][^][^][^][^]. Preliminary results as of September 14, 2026, indicate an extremely tight race, with the left-leaning opposition bloc projected to hold a narrow 175-174 seat majority [^][^][^]. Prior to the election, prediction markets widely favored the Sweden Democrats to finish in second place, with implied probabilities often exceeding 70% [^][^][^][^], and one discussion noted the party's role in "remaking the political landscape" [^].
5. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score53Caution
Trust score79Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How might the counting of advance and overseas ballots impact the Sweden Democrats' final vote share in the 2026 election?
| Election status as of Sept 14, 2026 | Too close to call [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Final count start | Monday after election day [^][^] |
| Prediction market resolution | Weeks after election day [^] |
Advance and overseas ballots are crucial for the 2026 Swedish election outcome. Preliminary results, as of September 14, 2026, indicate that the election remains too close to call [^][^][^]. The counting of these specific ballots is anticipated to be a significant element in determining the final result of the general election.
Sweden employs a two-stage system for counting election ballots. The process begins with a preliminary count conducted by municipalities, followed by a final, official count carried out by county administrative boards [^][^]. This final stage commences the Monday following election day, during which the validity of votes is assessed, and late-arriving advance ballots are included [^][^]. Final certified results, which are typically released weeks after election day, will be used to resolve prediction markets for the 2026 Swedish general election, including those for the Sweden Democrats' vote share [^].
The research did not detail how ballot counting affects the Sweden Democrats. Specifically, the provided research lacked information on how the counting of advance and overseas ballots might influence the Sweden Democrats' final vote share. The retrieved data primarily focused on election administration and voting procedures in United States elections, and consequently, no relevant information concerning Swedish political parties, the Sweden Democrats, or their particular impact on Swedish election procedures was found [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
7. How did final pre-election polls from major Swedish institutes compare to the preliminary 2026 results for the Sweden Democrats?
| Reported Election Date | September 13, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Sweden Democrats Exit Poll | 17.2% [^][^][^] |
| Sweden Democrats Pre-election Trend | 19.6% [^] |
Information is conflicting regarding a 2026 Swedish general election. Some research indicates a general election occurred on September 13, 2026, with preliminary results and exit polls suggesting the Sweden Democrats (SD) received 17.2% of the vote [^][^][^]. However, other findings from election news and results databases do not list a Swedish general election as having taken place in 2026 [^][^][^][^].
If held, SD's performance potentially fell below forecasts. Should the election have occurred as reported by some sources, pre-election trends, such as the PolitPro Election Trend, had positioned the Sweden Democrats at approximately 19.6% shortly before the election [^]. Based on an exit poll showing them at 17.2% [^][^][^], this suggests the party potentially underperformed when compared to the final polling aggregates [^].
8. How does the Sweden Democrats' vote share change from 2022 compare to that of their right-wing allies, the Moderates and Christian Democrats, in the 2026 preliminary results?
| Sweden Democrats 2022 Vote Share | 20.5% [^] |
|---|---|
| Sweden Democrats 2026 Projected Seats | 70 (down from 73) [^] |
| Right-Wing Coalition 2026 Preliminary Result | Trailing centre-left opposition by 3 seats [^] |
Sweden Democrats project a loss in support for the 2026 election. Preliminary projections for the 2026 Swedish general election indicate a decrease in seat count for the Sweden Democrats, from 73 to 70, reflecting a loss in support compared to 2022. In the 2022 Swedish general election, the Sweden Democrats secured 20.5% of the vote, the Moderates 19.1%, and the Christian Democrats 5.3% [^]. However, the available information does not contain specific preliminary vote share percentages for the Sweden Democrats, Moderates, or Christian Democrats for the 2026 election. This absence of data prevents a direct comparison of their respective vote share changes from 2022.
The right-wing coalition trails the opposition by a narrow margin. As of September 14, 2026, preliminary results for the 2026 Swedish general election show the current right-wing ruling coalition, which includes the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Sweden Democrats, behind the centre-left opposition bloc. This deficit is by a narrow three-seat margin [^].
9. In the last three Swedish general elections, what was the average change for major parties between the preliminary and final official vote counts?
| Specific Data Availability | Average change data for major parties between preliminary and final vote counts in the last three Swedish general elections is not available [^]. |
|---|---|
| Standard Metric Provided | The Swedish Election Authority does not provide a standard "average change" metric [^][^]. |
| Reasons for Differences | Differences between preliminary and final results are due to late-arriving advance votes and validation of previously excluded ballots [^][^]. |
The average change in Swedish election results is not publicly available. Specific data on the average change for major parties between the preliminary and final official vote counts in the last three Swedish general elections is not available. The Swedish Election Authority explicitly states that it does not provide a standard "average change" metric, despite acknowledging that differences do occur between preliminary and final results [^][^].
Final vote counts can shift due to several administrative factors. These shifts in vote counts are influenced by factors such as late-arriving advance votes and the validation of ballots that were previously excluded [^][^]. The authority further notes that the extent of these changes varies by election, depending on factors like voter turnout, late voting patterns, and various administrative considerations [^][^].
10. What are the current forecasts from Swedish political analysts for the Sweden Democrats' final 2026 vote share, given the outstanding ballots?
| Election Date | September 13, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Prediction Market Forecast | 18-20% for Sweden Democrats [^] |
| Mid-August Poll (Verian) | 19-20% for Sweden Democrats [^] |
The 2026 Swedish general election occurred on September 13, 2026, making the query's premise inaccurate. The 2026 Swedish general election was held on Sunday, September 13, 2026 [^][^][^]. The specific political query regarding outstanding ballots and current forecasts for the Sweden Democrats' 2026 vote share appears to stem from a misunderstanding, as it does not align with actual, ongoing election events in Sweden [^].
Pre-election forecasts projected the Sweden Democrats' vote share between 18-20%. Leading up to the election, prediction markets on Kalshi, as of September 11, 2026, indicated a strong likelihood that the Sweden Democrats would secure at least 15% of the popular vote [^]. Market expectations generally ranged between 18-20% for the party's performance [^]. Similarly, a Verian poll conducted in mid-August 2026 showed the Sweden Democrats polling around 19-20% [^]. The party was widely anticipated to play a significant role in the election [^].
Current forecasts from Swedish analysts on final vote share for Sweden are unavailable. The available factual data does not contain specific information about current forecasts from Swedish political analysts concerning the Sweden Democrats' final 2026 vote share, particularly concerning outstanding ballots. Additionally, election forecasting data from sources like Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) pertains exclusively to the 2026 United States midterm elections, not to elections in Sweden [^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The September 13, 2026, Swedish general election saw the Sweden Democrats receive approximately 17.6% of the vote in preliminary results, marking a decline from their 20.5% result in the 2022 general election [^] [^] . As of September 14, 2026, preliminary election results indicate a narrow lead for the centre-left opposition bloc, projected at 176 seats, over the incumbent right-wing coalition, projected at 173 seats [^][^].
This election marks the first instance since the Sweden Democrats entered parliament in 2010 that they lost support, despite previous anticipation in prediction markets regarding their vote share and second-place standing [^] [^] . Final results, including overseas and remaining district votes, are expected by the weekend after election day [^][^]. Commentary suggests Okersonen has already won and remade the political landscape, pulling his party, the Sweden Democrats, into the mainstream, though the path ahead is described as complicated [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 13, 2027
- Closes: September 13, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The September 13, 2026, Swedish general election saw the Sweden Democrats receive approximately 17.6% of the vote in preliminary results, marking a decline from their 20.5% result in the 2022 general election [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of September 14, 2026, preliminary election results indicate a narrow lead for the centre-left opposition bloc, projected at 176 seats, over the incumbent right-wing coalition, projected at 173 seats [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This election marks the first instance since the Sweden Democrats entered parliament in 2010 that they lost support, despite previous anticipation in prediction markets regarding their vote share and second-place standing [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Final results, including overseas and remaining district votes, are expected by the weekend after election day [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
