Short Answer

The Sweden Democrats are unlikely to achieve at least 22% of the popular vote, as preliminary 2026 general election results indicate they received approximately 17.6%; the market prices this outcome at 5.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's price collapsed following the release of preliminary election results on September 14. The Sweden Democrats were reported to have secured 17.6% of the vote. This result is inconsistent with the contract's apparent resolution target, which the market's name suggests is a 15% vote share. Consequently, the contract's price fell from 42.0% on September 8 to 4.0% once the initial count was published.
Before the election, the market traded in a stable range between 39.0% and 42.0%, reflecting significant perceived odds that the party's final vote share would align with the contract's specific terms. The price held steady until the official preliminary numbers provided a data point that moved the likely outcome far from the resolution trigger. Total volume reached 7,516 contracts.
  • The Sweden Democrats' vote share likely falls below 18% per preliminary results.
  • This reflects a vote decline from 20.5% in the 2022 general election.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
At least 20% 4.0% 1.0% Preliminary results show the Sweden Democrats' 17.6% of the vote is well below 20%.
At least 23% 3.0% 1.0% Preliminary results show the Sweden Democrats' 17.6% of the vote is well below 23%.
At least 25% 1.0% 1.0% Preliminary results show the Sweden Democrats' 17.6% of the vote is well below 25%.
At least 28% 1.0% 1.0% Preliminary results show the Sweden Democrats' 17.6% of the vote is well below 28%.
At least 21% 2.0% 1.0% Preliminary results show the Sweden Democrats' 17.6% of the vote is well below 21%.

Current Context

The Swedish general election remains too close to call. A September 14, 2026 report cited a preliminary count from the September 13, 2026 election, indicating the Sweden Democrats received 17.6% of the vote [1]. The centre-left opposition bloc maintains a narrow projected lead over the right-wing governing bloc [1][2][3].
The Sweden Democrats have significantly reshaped the political environment. The party has entered the mainstream, altering the country's political scene [4]. Swedish general elections are held every four years on the second Sunday in September; the next election is scheduled for 2030 [5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Swedish election cliffhanger: Opposition ahead as final count continuesthelocal.se
  2. 2Swedish centre-left opposition in pole position to take power after tight election | Reutersreuters.com
  3. 3Sweden’s general election on a knife-edge as far-right trails by narrow margin | The Nationalthenationalnews.com
  4. 4Daybreak Weekend: Fed Decision, Sweden Election, BOJ Meeting | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  5. 52026 elections – the Riksdag and regional and municipal councilsval.se
  6. 6The 2026 elections | Sveriges riksdagriksdagen.se
  7. 72026 Swedish general election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: At least 18%

📉 September 13, 2026: 79.0pp drop

Price decreased from 81.0% to 2.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the official announcement of the Swedish general election results on September 13, 2026 [1][2]. The Sweden Democrats received approximately 17.6% to 17.9% of the vote [3][4][5], which fell below the "At least 18%" threshold for the market outcome. This traditional news event caused the market price for the "At least 18%" outcome to drop significantly, aligning with the confirmed election results. No social media activity was identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant to this specific market movement.

📉 September 12, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 93.0% to 81.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 12.0 percentage point drop in the "At least 18%" prediction market for the Sweden Democrats on September 12, 2026, was likely a downward revision of their projected vote share based on pre-election indicators. While specific social media activity or news from September 12 is not detailed in the provided sources, post-election reports confirmed the Sweden Democrats received 17.6% to 17.9% of the vote [6][4][7][8][5][9]. This outcome marked their first decline in support and fell below the 18% threshold [6][8], aligning with the market's downturn. Based on the available information, social media activity was irrelevant to this movement.

Outcome: At least 23%

📉 September 11, 2026: 56.0pp drop

Price decreased from 66.0% to 10.0%

What happened: The 56.0 percentage point drop for the "At least 23%" outcome on September 11, 2026, anticipated the Sweden Democrats' actual vote share, which preliminary results released on September 14, 2026, showed at approximately 17.6% [10]. This outcome was significantly below the 23% threshold, representing a decline from their 2022 performance [10]. However, the provided research does not include specific social media activity, posts from key figures, or breaking news announcements on or around September 11, 2026, that directly explain the immediate driver of this market movement. Therefore, based on the available information, social media cannot be definitively identified as a primary driver for this particular price drop.

📈 September 10, 2026: 58.0pp spike

Price increased from 8.0% to 66.0%

What happened: The reported 58.0 percentage point spike on September 10, 2026, for the Sweden Democrats appears to be unsubstantiated. Web research indicates that this specific market movement and any corresponding election event or polling anomaly on that date are not supported by factual or electoral records [11][12][13][14][15][16]. While some sources refer to a Swedish general election in September 2026 [6][4][8], other sources explicitly state there was no such election taking place in September 2026 [11][12][13][14][15][16]. Consequently, social media activity cannot be identified as a primary driver for an uncorroborated event and is deemed irrelevant.

Outcome: At least 19%

📈 September 08, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 55.0% to 69.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not identify any specific social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors to explain a 14.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for the Sweden Democrats' vote share on September 08, 2026. Major polls in early September 2026 indicated the Sweden Democrats were already polling around 18.8% to 18.9% [17][18], suggesting the "At least 19%" outcome was within expectation rather than requiring a sudden 14-point probability surge. No social media posts from key figures, including specific claims, sources, or timing relative to the price move, or any viral narratives, were found to lead or coincide with such a dramatic market movement. Consequently, based on the available information, social media appears irrelevant, and a primary driver for the reported price spike cannot be determined.
Sources (18)
  1. 1Editorial $175.00 - AP Newsroomnewsroom.ap.org
  2. 2ID - AP Newsroomnewsroom.ap.org
  3. 3Sweden's election too close to call as far right loses ground | AFP.comafp.com
  4. 4Sweden election 'very close' as left bloc claims tight leaddw.com
  5. 5Sweden's centre-left inches ahead of far right as election too close to callthejournal.ie
  6. 6Opposition set to halt Sweden's slide to right | Reutersreuters.com
  7. 7Sweden’s opposition holds three-seat lead as election goes down to final count - https://eutoday.neteutoday.net
  8. 8Sweden's election too close to call as far right loses ground | RNZrnz.co.nz
  9. 9Sweden's election too close to call with more than half of votes countedthelocal.se
  10. 10Swedish election cliffhanger: Opposition ahead as final count continuesthelocal.se
  11. 11September 15, 2026, election results - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  12. 122026 election and voting dates - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  13. 13September 2026 elections coverage - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  14. 14September 1, 2026, election results - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  15. 15Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing Deadlines for Ballot Accessfec.gov
  16. 16Massachusetts elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  17. 17Väljarbarometern SVT Verianveriangroup.com
  18. 18Ipsos poll 2026-09-11: Small changes for the partiesstatsskuld.se

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the Sweden Democrats' vote percent in the Swedish general election is 18% or higher, based exclusively on the Riksdag ballot (excluding regional or municipal votes). It resolves NO if their vote percent is less than 18% for the Riksdag ballot. The maximum payout date for this market is September 13, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
At least 15% $1.00 $0.05 99%
At least 17% $1.00 $0.05 89%
At least 22% $0.04 $1.00 5%
At least 20% $0.04 $0.99 4%
At least 23% $0.04 $1.00 3%
At least 18% $0.09 $0.97 2%
At least 19% $0.07 $1.00 2%
At least 21% $0.06 $1.00 2%
At least 25% $0.03 $1.00 1%
At least 28% $0.03 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

In the September 13, 2026, Swedish general election, the Sweden Democrats received approximately 17.6% to 17.9% of the vote, marking a decline from their 20.5% share in 2022 [1][2][3][4][5]. Preliminary results as of September 14, 2026, indicate an extremely tight race, with the left-leaning opposition bloc projected to hold a narrow 175-174 seat majority [1][2][3]. Prior to the election, prediction markets widely favored the Sweden Democrats to finish in second place, with implied probabilities often exceeding 70% [6][7][8][9], and one discussion noted the party's role in "remaking the political landscape" [10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1Swedish election cliffhanger: Opposition ahead as final count continuesthelocal.se
  2. 2Centre-left bloc leads Swedish elections – as it happened | Sweden | The Guardiantheguardian.com
  3. 3Sweden Election 2026: Left Bloc Leads 175-174 | Results | informed, clearlyinformedclearly.com
  4. 4Sweden election 'very close' as left bloc claims tight leaddw.com
  5. 5Sweden's election too close to call as far right loses ground | RNZrnz.co.nz
  6. 6Sweden Parliamentary Election. Prediction | Lines.comlines.com
  7. 7https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-2nd-place?r=kooespolymarket.com
  8. 8Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share? Prediction Market Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  9. 9Sweden Parliamentary Election 2026 Odds & Analysis | Prediction Geniuspredictiongenius.io
  10. 10Daybreak Weekend: Fed Decision, Sweden Election, BOJ Meeting | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com

5. How might the counting of advance and overseas ballots impact the Sweden Democrats' final vote share in the 2026 election?

Election status as of Sept 14, 2026Too close to call [1][2][3]
Final count startMonday after election day [4][5]
Prediction market resolutionWeeks after election day [6]
Advance and overseas ballots are crucial for the 2026 Swedish election outcome. Preliminary results, as of September 14, 2026, indicate that the election remains too close to call [1][2][3]. The counting of these specific ballots is anticipated to be a significant element in determining the final result of the general election.
Sweden employs a two-stage system for counting election ballots. The process begins with a preliminary count conducted by municipalities, followed by a final, official count carried out by county administrative boards [4][5]. This final stage commences the Monday following election day, during which the validity of votes is assessed, and late-arriving advance ballots are included [4][5]. Final certified results, which are typically released weeks after election day, will be used to resolve prediction markets for the 2026 Swedish general election, including those for the Sweden Democrats' vote share [6].
The research did not detail how ballot counting affects the Sweden Democrats. Specifically, the provided research lacked information on how the counting of advance and overseas ballots might influence the Sweden Democrats' final vote share. The retrieved data primarily focused on election administration and voting procedures in United States elections, and consequently, no relevant information concerning Swedish political parties, the Sweden Democrats, or their particular impact on Swedish election procedures was found [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17].
Sources (17)
  1. 1Swedish election ends in tight finale. Preliminary results... - AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2Sweden's election too close to call with more than half of votes...facebook.com
  3. 3Sweden's national election results showed a narrow lead early for...facebook.com
  4. 4Preliminary and final election results | Swedish election authorityval.se
  5. 5Counting Ballots in Sweden —aceproject.org
  6. 6Swedish general election: Sweden Democrats vote percent - Kalshi oranları | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7What to know about how states count absentee/mail-in ballots - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Voting from abroad | MIT Election Labelectionlab.mit.edu
  9. 9When states can begin processing and counting absentee/mail-in ballots, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  10. 10Voting by mail and absentee voting | MIT Election Labelectionlab.mit.edu
  11. 11How and when states count absentee and mail-in ballots - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  12. 12MEDSL Explains: Voting from Abroad | MIT Election Labelectionlab.mit.edu
  13. 13Absentee/mail-in ballot request deadlines, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  14. 14California SB1431legislation.ballotpedia.org
  15. 15Democrats Abroad - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  16. 16Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots in the states, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  17. 17Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots in the states, 2020 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

6. How did final pre-election polls from major Swedish institutes compare to the preliminary 2026 results for the Sweden Democrats?

Reported Election DateSeptember 13, 2026 [1][2][3]
Sweden Democrats Exit Poll17.2% [1][2][3]
Sweden Democrats Pre-election Trend19.6% [4]
Information is conflicting regarding a 2026 Swedish general election. Some research indicates a general election occurred on September 13, 2026, with preliminary results and exit polls suggesting the Sweden Democrats (SD) received 17.2% of the vote [1][2][3]. However, other findings from election news and results databases do not list a Swedish general election as having taken place in 2026 [5][6][7][8].
If held, SD's performance potentially fell below forecasts. Should the election have occurred as reported by some sources, pre-election trends, such as the PolitPro Election Trend, had positioned the Sweden Democrats at approximately 19.6% shortly before the election [4]. Based on an exit poll showing them at 17.2% [1][2][3], this suggests the party potentially underperformed when compared to the final polling aggregates [4].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Swedish left-wing bloc narrowly ahead with election too close to callbbc.com
  2. 2Sweden's centre-left holds razor-thin edge as exit polls show tight racefrance24.com
  3. 3Opposition set to halt Sweden's slide to right | Reutersreuters.com
  4. 4Sweden Election Polls 2026 | Voting Intentions & PolitPro Trendpolitpro.eu
  5. 5September 2026 elections coverage - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6September 1, 2026, election results - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7September 15, 2026, election results - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 8Weekly Brew: September 11, 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

7. How does the Sweden Democrats' vote share change from 2022 compare to that of their right-wing allies, the Moderates and Christian Democrats, in the 2026 preliminary results?

Sweden Democrats 2022 Vote Share20.5% [1]
Sweden Democrats 2026 Projected Seats70 (down from 73) [1]
Right-Wing Coalition 2026 Preliminary ResultTrailing centre-left opposition by 3 seats [2]
Sweden Democrats project a loss in support for the 2026 election. Preliminary projections for the 2026 Swedish general election indicate a decrease in seat count for the Sweden Democrats, from 73 to 70, reflecting a loss in support compared to 2022. In the 2022 Swedish general election, the Sweden Democrats secured 20.5% of the vote, the Moderates 19.1%, and the Christian Democrats 5.3% [1]. However, the available information does not contain specific preliminary vote share percentages for the Sweden Democrats, Moderates, or Christian Democrats for the 2026 election. This absence of data prevents a direct comparison of their respective vote share changes from 2022.
The right-wing coalition trails the opposition by a narrow margin. As of September 14, 2026, preliminary results for the 2026 Swedish general election show the current right-wing ruling coalition, which includes the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Sweden Democrats, behind the centre-left opposition bloc. This deficit is by a narrow three-seat margin [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 12026 Swedish general election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Opposition set to halt Sweden's slide to right | Reutersreuters.com

8. In the last three Swedish general elections, what was the average change for major parties between the preliminary and final official vote counts?

Specific Data AvailabilityAverage change data for major parties between preliminary and final vote counts in the last three Swedish general elections is not available [1].
Standard Metric ProvidedThe Swedish Election Authority does not provide a standard "average change" metric [1][2].
Reasons for DifferencesDifferences between preliminary and final results are due to late-arriving advance votes and validation of previously excluded ballots [1][2].
The average change in Swedish election results is not publicly available. Specific data on the average change for major parties between the preliminary and final official vote counts in the last three Swedish general elections is not available. The Swedish Election Authority explicitly states that it does not provide a standard "average change" metric, despite acknowledging that differences do occur between preliminary and final results [1][2].
Final vote counts can shift due to several administrative factors. These shifts in vote counts are influenced by factors such as late-arriving advance votes and the validation of ballots that were previously excluded [1][2]. The authority further notes that the extent of these changes varies by election, depending on factors like voter turnout, late voting patterns, and various administrative considerations [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Frequently asked questions – about Swedish electionsval.se
  2. 2Preliminary and final election results | Swedish election authorityval.se

9. What are the current forecasts from Swedish political analysts for the Sweden Democrats' final 2026 vote share, given the outstanding ballots?

Election DateSeptember 13, 2026 [1]
Prediction Market Forecast18-20% for Sweden Democrats [2]
Mid-August Poll (Verian)19-20% for Sweden Democrats [3]
The 2026 Swedish general election occurred on September 13, 2026, making the query's premise inaccurate. The 2026 Swedish general election was held on Sunday, September 13, 2026 [1][4][5]. The specific political query regarding outstanding ballots and current forecasts for the Sweden Democrats' 2026 vote share appears to stem from a misunderstanding, as it does not align with actual, ongoing election events in Sweden [6].
Pre-election forecasts projected the Sweden Democrats' vote share between 18-20%. Leading up to the election, prediction markets on Kalshi, as of September 11, 2026, indicated a strong likelihood that the Sweden Democrats would secure at least 15% of the popular vote [2]. Market expectations generally ranged between 18-20% for the party's performance [2]. Similarly, a Verian poll conducted in mid-August 2026 showed the Sweden Democrats polling around 19-20% [3]. The party was widely anticipated to play a significant role in the election [7].
Current forecasts from Swedish analysts on final vote share for Sweden are unavailable. The available factual data does not contain specific information about current forecasts from Swedish political analysts concerning the Sweden Democrats' final 2026 vote share, particularly concerning outstanding ballots. Additionally, election forecasting data from sources like Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) pertains exclusively to the 2026 United States midterm elections, not to elections in Sweden [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 elections – the Riksdag and regional and municipal councilsval.se
  2. 2Swedish general election: Sweden Democrats vote percent - Kalshi oranları | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Swedish opposition holds big lead ahead of September vote, poll...reuters.com
  4. 4The 2026 elections | Sveriges riksdagriksdagen.se
  5. 52026 Swedish general election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6International ballot measures, Europe - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Daybreak Weekend: Fed Decision, Sweden Election, BOJ Meeting | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  8. 82026 Election Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 U.S. House Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  10. 102026 U.S. Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The September 13, 2026, Swedish general election saw the Sweden Democrats receive approximately 17.6% of the vote in preliminary results, marking a decline from their 20.5% result in the 2022 general election [1][2]. As of September 14, 2026, preliminary election results indicate a narrow lead for the centre-left opposition bloc, projected at 176 seats, over the incumbent right-wing coalition, projected at 173 seats [1][2].
This election marks the first instance since the Sweden Democrats entered parliament in 2010 that they lost support, despite previous anticipation in prediction markets regarding their vote share and second-place standing [1][2]. Final results, including overseas and remaining district votes, are expected by the weekend after election day [1][2]. Commentary suggests Okersonen has already won and remade the political landscape, pulling his party, the Sweden Democrats, into the mainstream, though the path ahead is described as complicated [3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 13, 2027
  • Closes: September 13, 2027
Sources (3)
  1. 1Swedish centre-left opposition in pole position to take power after tight election | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Sweden's election too close to call as far right loses ground | RNZrnz.co.nz
  3. 3Daybreak Weekend: Fed Decision, Sweden Election, BOJ Meeting | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com