At least 20%
Market Model 4.0% 1.0%
At least 23%
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Topic tracker · Elections
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (2 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Swedish general election party vote share markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated September 14, 2026