Short Answer

The Moderate Party is expected to receive at least 16% of the vote in the Swedish general election, with preliminary counts indicating 19.8% to 19.9% of the popular vote; the market considers this outcome 99.0% likely.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price has remained static, showing no reaction to any reported developments, including the election itself. The price held at a constant 98.0% before, during, and after the September 13 Swedish general election.
The stability suggests the market priced in a high-probability outcome from the outset. Preliminary election results, which reported the Moderate Party secured 19.9% of the vote, did not contradict this initial assessment. The minimal trading volume of 132 contracts was insufficient to shift the market from its high-conviction position. No other events or news appear to have challenged the market's forecast.
  • Preliminary 2026 election results show Moderate Party at 19.8% to 19.9% of votes.
  • This vote count exceeds all specified thresholds for the Moderate Party's vote percent.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
At least 13% 98.0% 99.9% Preliminary vote counts indicate the Moderate Party received 19.8% to 19.9% of the vote in the 2026 election.
At least 19% 98.0% 99.9% Preliminary vote counts indicate the Moderate Party received 19.8% to 19.9% of the vote in the 2026 election.
At least 15% 97.0% 99.9% Preliminary vote counts indicate the Moderate Party received 19.8% to 19.9% of the vote in the 2026 election.
At least 17% 99.0% 99.9% Preliminary vote counts indicate the Moderate Party received 19.8% to 19.9% of the vote in the 2026 election.
At least 18% 94.0% 99.9% Preliminary vote counts indicate the Moderate Party received 19.8% to 19.9% of the vote in the 2026 election.

Current Context

The Moderate Party secured 19.9% in Sweden's September 13 election. Preliminary counts from the September 13, 2026, Swedish general election show the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) received 19.9% of the vote, placing them as the second-largest party [1][2]. The Social Democrats stand as Sweden's largest and oldest party in parliament [3].
Centre-left opposition holds a narrow three-seat Riksdag majority. Preliminary results from the 2026 general election indicate the centre-left opposition, led by the Social Democrats, holds 176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag [4][2]. This provides them a three-seat majority over the right-wing bloc, led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, which secured 173 seats [4][2]. The Swedish Election Authority expects to announce final election results on Wednesday, September 16, 2026 [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Sweden's election too close to call as far right loses ground | RNZrnz.co.nz
  2. 2Sweden’s opposition holds three-seat lead as election goes down to final count - https://eutoday.neteutoday.net
  3. 3Daybreak Weekend: Fed Decision, Sweden Election, BOJ Meeting | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  4. 4Swedish centre-left opposition in pole position to take power after tight election | Reutersreuters.com
  5. 5Common questions and answers about the elections | Sveriges riksdagriksdagen.se

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 September 13, 2026: 83.0pp spike

Price increased from 15.0% to 98.0%

Outcome: At least 19%

What happened: The reported "83.0 percentage point spike" for the "Swedish general election: Moderate Party vote percent" market on September 13, 2026, appears to be an erroneous data point, as no such significant price movement occurred in relation to the actual election outcome [1]. Following the general election on September 13, 2026, the Moderate Party was credited with approximately 19.9% of the vote, successfully exceeding the "At least 19%" threshold [2][3][4][5]. Since the specified price movement did not take place, no primary driver related to social media activity, traditional news, or market structure can be identified. Social media activity was therefore irrelevant to this non-existent price spike.
Sources (5)
  1. 1All 292 Prediction Markets | PicksByOddspicksbyodds.com
  2. 2Sweden's election too close to call as far right loses ground - AFP.comafp.com
  3. 3Sweden’s opposition holds three-seat lead as election goes down to final count - https://eutoday.neteutoday.net
  4. 4Left edges ahead in Swedish election thriller - Politico EUpolitico.eu
  5. 5Sweden Election 2026: Left Bloc Leads 175-174 | Results | informed, clearlyinformedclearly.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "At least 19%" market concerning the Moderate Party's vote share in the Swedish general election, a YES resolution occurs if their vote percentage is 19% or higher. A NO resolution occurs if the vote percentage is less than 19%. Settlement is based solely on the Riksdag ballot results, excluding regional or municipal votes, and will be completed by September 13, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
At least 16% $1.00 $0.03 99%
At least 17% $1.00 $0.03 99%
At least 13% $1.00 $0.03 98%
At least 19% $0.99 $0.05 98%
At least 15% $1.00 $0.03 97%
At least 18% $1.00 $0.03 94%
At least 21% $0.03 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Some reports indicate that preliminary results from a Swedish general election, held as of September 14, 2026, show the Moderate Party receiving approximately 19%–19.9% of the vote, with final outcomes expected around September 16, 2026 [1][2][3]. However, other sources explicitly state that there is no Swedish general election taking place in 2026, clarifying that mentions of a "Moderate Party" in 2026 refer to a U.S. political organization [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Sweden Election 2026: Left Bloc Leads 175-174 | Results | informed, clearlyinformedclearly.com
  2. 2Centre-left bloc leads Swedish elections – as it happened | Sweden | The Guardiantheguardian.com
  3. 3Left edges ahead in Swedish election thriller – POLITICOpolitico.eu
  4. 4Moderate Party - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

5. How has the Moderate Party's relationship with the Sweden Democrats evolved since the 2022 election, and how might this coalition dynamic affect their respective vote shares in 2026?

Moderate Party 2022 Election Result19.1% [1][2][3]
Moderate Party Poll Share (Sept 2026)16%-17% [1][2][3]
Sweden Democrats Poll Share (Sept 2026)18%-20% [1][2][3]
The Moderate Party's post-2022 relationship with the Sweden Democrats significantly deepened. Since the 2022 election, the Moderate Party has led a minority government supported by the Sweden Democrats (SD) through the Tidö Agreement, granting the SD direct influence over Swedish government policy for the first time [4][5]. This coalition dynamic has experienced internal pressures, notably the 2026 defection of two Moderate Party parliamentarians to the Sweden Democrats [4]. Conversely, the Sweden Democrats also saw the loss of some Members of Parliament during the 2025-2026 period [4].
This association creates a strategic dilemma, impacting both parties' vote shares. The Moderate Party faces a strategic dilemma due to this close association, risking the alienation of urban progressive voters while also potentially losing its right-wing base, particularly rural and male voters, to the Sweden Democrats [5][2]. As of September 2026, polls consistently indicate a reduced vote share for the Moderate Party, generally ranging from 16%-17%, compared to their 19.1% result in 2022 [1][2][3]. The Sweden Democrats, by contrast, are polling around 18%-20%, which is slightly down from or similar to their 20.5% vote share in 2022 [1][2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Political Party Preference Survey, May 2026 - SCBscb.se
  2. 2Sweden's right-wing government lags in poll, but gap narrowsreuters.com
  3. 3Sweden Election Polls 2026 | Voting Intentions & PolitPro Trendpolitpro.eu
  4. 4Sweden Democrats - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Sweden: Can the Right Still Avoid Defeat in September?nassreddintaibi.substack.com

6. What is the consensus forecast for the Moderate Party's vote share from major Swedish polling aggregators for the 2026 election?

Moderate Party Polling Average17.3% (as of September 4, 2026) [1]
Moderate Party 2022 Election Result19.1% [2]
Probability of Moderate Party >= 15% vote76%-93% (as of late August 2026) [3]
Moderate Party polling average for 2026 is 17.3 percent. While no Swedish general election is officially scheduled for 2026, with official information currently pertaining to U.S. federal and state elections, hypothetical polling data has been cited for a 2026 Swedish general election [4]. As of September 4, 2026, the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) has a weighted polling average of 17.3% according to PolitPro [1].
Recent polling data indicates a decline from the 2022 election. This hypothetical polling figure places the Moderate Party below its 2022 general election result of 19.1% [2]. Analysis from the prediction market Kalshi in late August 2026 also indicates a 76%-93% probability of the Moderate Party receiving at least 15% of the vote, and a 42%-84% probability of them achieving at least 17% [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Sweden Election Polls 2026 | Voting Intentions & PolitPro Trendpolitpro.eu
  2. 2Your primer on Sweden's upcoming parliamentary electionsatlanticcouncil.org
  3. 3Swedish general election: Moderate Party vote percent - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 42026 election and voting dates - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

7. Which national issues, such as NATO integration, energy policy, or crime rates, are polling as most important to Swedish voters for the 2026 election?

Top Issues for VotersHealthcare, welfare, household finances [1]
Healthcare as Top Concern64% [1]
Moderate Party >=13% vote probability98% (early September 2026) [2]
Swedish voters prioritize healthcare, welfare, and household finances for the 2026 election. Healthcare was identified as a top concern by 64% of voters. Law and order, particularly issues related to gang violence, also remained a significant topic, alongside migration and energy policy. However, the relative importance of law and order and energy policy declined when compared to previous election cycles [1].
Specific polling data for the 2026 Swedish general election was not available from the provided search results [3]. Nevertheless, prediction markets in early September 2026 indicated a high probability of the Moderate Party achieving at least 13% of the vote, with a 98% certainty. Additional vote share brackets for the Moderate Party, specifically 15%, 16%, 17%, 18%, 19%, and 21%, were actively traded [2][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Your primer on Sweden's upcoming parliamentary electionsatlanticcouncil.org
  2. 2Swedish general election: Moderate Party vote percent - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Sweden requires ESG investing for pension funds (2023)ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Kalshi Markets: EV Commodities, Kentucky Ham, S&P 500predictionnewsnetwork.com

8. What do historical voting patterns from the 2018 and 2022 elections reveal about the Moderate Party's performance in key demographic groups and geographic regions?

Moderate Party 2018 Vote Share19.84% [1]
Moderate Party 2022 Vote Share19.10% [2]
Key Parties Gaining Votes From Moderates (2022)Sweden Democrats, Social Democrats, and Centre Party [3]
The Moderate Party's vote share declined between 2018 and 2022. In the 2018 Swedish general election, the party secured 19.84% of the votes [1], which subsequently decreased to 19.10% in the 2022 election [2]. This represents a reduction of 0.74 percentage points over the four-year period.
Vote attrition in 2022 stemmed from several factors. The party primarily lost support to the Sweden Democrats, but also to the Social Democrats and the Centre Party [3]. Anecdotal reports suggest that the party suffered particular losses in its traditional stronghold of Stockholm, reportedly driven by voter discomfort regarding the Moderate Party's perceived increasing alignment with the Sweden Democrats [3]. The provided information does not offer details on other specific demographic groups or additional geographic regions concerning the Moderate Party's performance in either the 2018 or 2022 Swedish general elections.
Sources (3)
  1. 12018 Swedish general election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 22022 Swedish general election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3A new right: the Swedish parliamentary election of September 2022tandfonline.com

9. What key legislative actions by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's government could significantly impact the Moderate Party's voter support before September 2026?

Key Policy AgreementTidö Agreement [1][2][3]
Controversial Legislative VotesCitizenship law and constitutional reform [4][5][6]
Voter Support ImpactDecline in Moderate Party voter support compared to 2022 election [1][2][3][4][5][6]
The Tidö Agreement significantly impacted Moderate Party voter support. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's government's reliance on this unprecedented legislative support agreement with the Sweden Democrats was a defining element of its term, enabling a strong policy focus on immigration and organized crime [1][2][3]. Despite its strategic intent, the agreement generated internal tensions and contributed to a decrease in the Moderate Party's voter support relative to the 2022 election [1][2][3].
Other legislative actions also fueled instability and internal divisions. These included amendments to the Elections Act between 2025 and 2026, as well as contentious parliamentary votes on citizenship law and constitutional reform [4][5][6]. Such actions occasionally triggered political instability and exposed existing rifts within the government coalition and its supporting parties [4][5][6]. Cumulatively, these legislative efforts led to a decline in voter support for the Moderate Party and underscored existing divisions within the government [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Sweden's election too close to call as far right loses ground - AFP.comafp.com
  2. 2Sweden heads to polls in close election race dominated by securityeuronews.com
  3. 3The 2026 Swedish Election: Implications for Sweden's Role in the EUgu.se
  4. 4Swedish politics was thrust into chaos after the government won a...facebook.com
  5. 5[PDF] SWEDEN - OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rightsodihr.osce.org
  6. 6Political Consensus in the Balance: Government Proposal to...constitutionnet.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Sweden held its general election for the 349-seat Riksdag on Sunday, September 13, 2026 [1][2][3]. Preliminary results as of September 14, 2026, indicate an extremely close outcome, with the left-leaning opposition bloc holding a projected narrow advantage of one seat (175) over the incumbent right-wing government (174) [4][5].
Preliminary vote percentage projections from the election night coverage estimated the Moderate Party at approximately 19.8%, an increase from their 19.1% result in the 2022 election [5]. However, there is no recognized political party in Sweden known as the Moderate Party [6]. Polls suggest Okersonen will again outperform Prime Minister Ulf Christristen's center-right moderate party, but that the opposition social democrats will win by a hair [7].
Official final results are expected to be announced by the Swedish Election Authority during the weekend following election day [8][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 13, 2027
  • Closes: September 13, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1Sweden General election 2026 (Riksdag) — Live Results & Mapelectiomap.com
  2. 2The 2026 elections | Sveriges riksdagriksdagen.se
  3. 32026 Swedish general election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Swedish election ends in near dead heat | AP Newsapnews.com
  5. 5Centre-left bloc leads Swedish elections – as it happened | Sweden | The Guardiantheguardian.com
  6. 6Moderate Party - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Daybreak Weekend: Fed Decision, Sweden Election, BOJ Meeting | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  8. 8Election results 2026 – Riksdag, regional and municipal...val.se
  9. 9Common questions and answers about the elections | Sveriges riksdagriksdagen.se

12. Related News

+83.0pp
Last updated: September 14, 2026, 12:16 UTC

Swedish Election Results Drive Moderate Party Vote-Share Odds to 98%

Preliminary results from Sweden's general election on Sunday, September 13, 2026, have driven a significant repricing in markets forecasting the Moderate Party's final vote share. As early counts indi...