Marine Le Pen
Market Model 86.0% 77.7%
Jordan Bardella
Market Model 8.9% 3.5%
International Election Props Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (7)
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Polymarket
PL
Market Model 77.0% 80.7%
MDB
Market Model 16.3% 16.9%
Renan Santos Victory
Market Model 0.9% 0.9%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
Market Model 26.1% 15.2%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 96.1% 95.6%
Tarcisio de Frietas
Market Model 0.5% 0.2%
Renan Santos
Market Model 52.0% 50.4%
Ratinho Júnior
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
French election called by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 7.5%
Renan Santos
Market Model 6.0% 6.8%
Fernando Haddad
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? Top outcome: Marine Le Pen | 86.0% | 77.7% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
| Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Top outcome: PL | 77.0% | 80.7% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Renan Santos Victory | 0.9% | 0.9% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Top outcome: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 96.1% | 95.6% | Med | 74 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos | 52.0% | 50.4% | Med | 80 | Refresh |
| French election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 13.0% | 7.5% | High | 44 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos | 6.0% | 6.8% | High | 80 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (3)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | 71 |
