Yes
Market Model 29.0% 21.5%
Congress Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (3)
Chris Murphy
Market Model 5.0% 5.0%
Chuck Schumer
Market Model 50.0% 40.6%
Hakeem Jeffries
Market Model 79.0% 59.2%
Jim Jordan
Market Model 18.0% 24.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes refers to: Yes | 29.0% | 21.5% | Med | 38 | Refresh |
| Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? Top outcome: Chris Murphy | 5.0% | 5.0% | High | 92 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next Speaker of the House? Top outcome: Hakeem Jeffries | 79.0% | 59.2% | High | 81 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (4)
Shutdown & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 22.3%
Shutdown & Democratic Party
Market Model 100.0% 77.7%
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: Shutdown & Republican Party | 0.0% | 22.3% | High | 73 | |
| — | — | High | 71 | ||
| — | — | High | 78 | ||
| — | — | High | 79 |
