No Shutdown & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
No Shutdown & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Congress Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (7)
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Polymarket
Extended & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Extended & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Yes
Market Model 29.0% 21.5%
54
Market Model 4.1% 3.0%
52
Market Model 12.7% 11.7%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 46.0% 41.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 55.0% 58.4%
Chris Murphy
Market Model 5.0% 5.0%
Chuck Schumer
Market Model 50.0% 40.6%
Hakeem Jeffries
Market Model 79.0% 59.2%
Jim Jordan
Market Model 18.0% 24.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: No Shutdown & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: Extended & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes refers to: Yes | 29.0% | 21.5% | Med | 36 | Refresh |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 54 | 4.1% | 3.0% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 46.0% | 41.6% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? Top outcome: Chris Murphy | 5.0% | 5.0% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next Speaker of the House? Top outcome: Hakeem Jeffries | 79.0% | 59.2% | High | 77 | Refresh |
