Who will be the next Speaker of the House?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker of the House, at 59.2% model vs 79.0% market, suggesting the market may be overestimating the likelihood of a Democratic House majority following the 2026 elections.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The prediction market for the next Speaker of the House has been characterized by a stable, sideways trend, trading within a tight 6-point range between 75% and 81%. This narrow channel indicates a period of price consolidation, with 75% acting as a firm support level and 81% serving as resistance. The most significant price movement was a modest increase from 76% to 79% in late March. The provided context does not cite a specific news event during that period to explain this shift, suggesting it may reflect a general market perception of Speaker Johnson successfully navigating legislative challenges despite the slim Republican majority, rather than a reaction to a single catalyst.
The total trading volume of 2,055 contracts over the period is moderate and appears inconsistent, which aligns with the sideways price action. This pattern suggests that while there is a general consensus, there is no strong market conviction driving the price in a new direction. The high probability, currently at 79%, reflects a strong market sentiment that the status quo is likely to continue, meaning a Republican will hold the speakership after the next election. However, the market's inability to break above the 81% resistance level indicates that traders are factoring in the significant uncertainty of the 2026 midterm elections, which will ultimately determine control of the House. The current price reflects confidence in near-term stability but acknowledges the long-term political risks.
- Here are the key claims for the prediction market analysis:
- Cook Political Report confirms Republicans retained House majority (219-215).
- A Democratic Speaker is impossible without a House majority.
- Mike Johnson remains incumbent Speaker with the Republican majority.
- No strong challengers to Speaker Johnson are currently reported.
- Republican internal divisions could still challenge Johnson's leadership.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Jeffries | 79.0% | 59.2% | Republicans are projected to retain the House majority in 2026, making a Democratic Speaker unlikely. |
| Jim Jordan | 18.0% | 24.1% | Republicans are projected to retain the House majority in 2026, positioning a Republican for the Speakership. |
| Steve Scalise | 14.0% | 16.8% | With Republicans projected to retain the House majority, a Republican Speaker is highly probable. |
Current Context
Speaker Mike Johnson holds his position amidst a narrow Republican majority. Mike Johnson (R-LA) is the current Speaker of the House, having been re-elected in January 2025 for the 119th Congress. The Republican party maintains a slim majority in the House, with a 218-214 split as of early 2026, alongside some vacancies. There has been no recent motion to vacate the Speaker's chair or any replacement efforts. Prediction markets reflect Johnson's current stability, showing low odds (less than 4%) of him being replaced by March 31, 2026, with prior markets resolving to him retaining his position [16-18].
The 2026 midterms will determine the next Speaker. The next Speaker election is scheduled for January 3, 2027, following the 2026 midterm elections. Political analysts offer divided forecasts for the House's future control. Some experts anticipate that Democrats could regain control of the House in the 2026 midterms, which might lead to Hakeem Jeffries becoming Speaker. Conversely, other forecasts suggest Republicans are expected to retain a narrow majority.
Johnson's leadership faces challenges due to the slim Republican majority. The Republican party's narrow majority presents ongoing challenges for Speaker Johnson's legislative agenda. This includes difficulties in passing key bills, such as FISA and the SAVE America Act. Further complicating the political landscape are recent GOP retirements and special elections [1], which could further affect the party's slight edge.
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Hakeem Jeffries is confirmed as the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson before January 1, 2031; otherwise, it resolves to "No." This market opened on February 26, 2025, and will close early if the event occurs, or by January 1, 2031, 10:00 AM EST if it does not. The outcome is mutually exclusive and will be determined by reports from various specified news sources.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Jeffries | $0.79 | $0.24 | 79% |
| Jim Jordan | $0.18 | $0.86 | 18% |
| Steve Scalise | $0.14 | $0.93 | 14% |
Market Discussion
Mike Johnson is the current Speaker of the House as of March 2026, with no evidence of an imminent change before the next election in January 2027 [1]. Prediction markets strongly favor Democrats regaining control of the House after the November 2026 elections, with odds of 84-85% across various platforms [2]. This makes Hakeem Jeffries the leading candidate for the next Speaker, with Kalshi showing 69% odds for him to be the first Speaker after Johnson [3].
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score46High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score77Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What Were Cook Political Report's 2026 'Toss-Up' District Outcomes?
| Early 'Toss-Up' Districts | 17 (4 D-held, 13 R-held) [1] |
|---|---|
| Late Shift in D-held Districts | 10 moved Republican direction [2] |
| Final House Composition | Republicans 219, Democrats 215, 1 other [3] |
Final "Toss-Up" district details are unavailable, but early ratings provided insight. The specific list of 15 "Toss-Up" districts from the Cook Political Report's final October 2026 analysis is not explicitly available. However, early 2026 ratings indicated 17 districts categorized as "Toss-Up," comprising four seats held by Democrats and thirteen held by Republicans [1]. Leading up to the election, there were subsequent shifts in ratings, notably with ten additional Democratic-held districts moving in the Republican direction [2].
The 2026 election favored Republicans, who secured a House majority. Ultimately, the net partisan change in these competitive districts benefited the Republican party. Following the 2026 election, the United States House of Representatives' composition consisted of 219 seats for Republicans, 215 seats for Democrats, and one other seat [3]. This outcome meant that the Democratic party did not attain the 218 seats necessary to achieve a majority in the House [3].
6. Are Republican Speaker Nominee Endorsement Counts Available Post-2026 Midterms?
| 2026 Speaker Nominee Endorsements | No precise whip count available post-November 2026 midterms [Web Research Results] [1] |
|---|---|
| House Freedom Caucus Membership | 31 members (current) [Web Research Results, 5, 6] [1] |
| Republican Study Committee Membership | 179 members (current) [Web Research Results, 7] [1] |
A precise whip count for a Republican Speaker nominee is currently unavailable for late November 2026. As of this period, no public endorsements can be tallied because the results of the November 2026 midterm elections have not yet been finalized [1]. Consequently, the Republican conference has not reported a Speaker nominee for that specific timeframe [1].
Endorsement tallies from key Republican groups are also currently premature. There are no specific endorsement tallies from members of the House Freedom Caucus or the Republican Study Committee for the period following the 2026 midterms [1]. The ongoing nature of primaries and special elections continues to influence the eventual composition of Congress, making any such counts premature [1]. For contextual understanding, the House Freedom Caucus presently consists of 31 members [2], while the Republican Study Committee comprises 179 members [3]. However, these membership figures reflect the current congressional composition and do not account for potential shifts or endorsement dynamics that may occur after the 2026 elections [1].
7. Have Funding Bills Passed House with More Democratic Yes Votes?
| Government Funding/Debt Ceiling Bills with More Democratic Yes Votes | None passed House before 2027 [1] |
|---|---|
| Motion to Vacate Resolutions (5+ GOP Co-sponsors) | None reported in 2026 [1] |
| Minimum Co-sponsors for Motion to Vacate | Nine total (since Jan 2025) [2] |
No government funding or debt ceiling bills passed with majority Democratic votes before 2027. Specifically, no legislative actions concerning government funding or debt ceiling negotiations passed the House of Representatives with more Democratic "yea" votes than Republican "yea" votes during this period. For example, the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 (H.R. 7148), passed the House in January 2026 with 192 Republican "yea" votes against 149 Democratic "yea" votes [1]. A Senate-amended version of this act also passed in February 2026 with even stronger Republican support, tallying 196 Republican "yea" votes compared to 21 Democratic "yea" votes [3]. Although the Breaking the Gridlock Act received more Democratic "yea" votes, it was related to permitting action and not to government funding or the debt ceiling [4]. Furthermore, no debt ceiling bill votes have been reported for 2026 [5].
Consequently, no motions to vacate were triggered by cross-party votes or reported in 2026. Given the absence of such legislative actions passing with more Democratic than Republican votes, no "motion to vacate" resolution with at least five Republican co-sponsors was triggered within the specified timeframe, and no such resolution was reported in 2026. Additionally, House rules enacted in January 2025 established a higher threshold for a privileged motion to vacate the chair, now requiring at least eight additional Republican co-sponsors beyond the proposer, for a total of at least nine, to trigger a vote [2].
Sources (5)
- 1H.R. 7148: Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 -- GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 2House approves new rules protecting Mike Johnson from ousteraxios.com
- 3Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representativesclerk.house.gov
- 4Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representativesclerk.house.gov
- 5Under House Budget Plan, Debt Limit Would Likely Be Reached by Fall 2026 Despite Increase | Center on Budget and Policy Prioritiescbpp.org
8. What is Hakeem Jeffries' Q3 2026 fundraising differential?
| Q3 2026 Fundraising Differential | Not available in provided web research [1] |
|---|---|
| Specific FEC Filings | Q3 2026 filings with detailed Schedule B itemizations not found [1]. |
| Media Analysis on Differential | No reports citing exact differential identified [1]. |
The specific fundraising differential for Q3 2026, regarding funds disbursed to candidates in competitive districts by Hakeem Jeffries' leadership PAC (Jobs, Education & Families First C00617803) versus the combined totals of Mike Johnson's (Johnson Leadership Fund C00771246), Jim Jordan's (Generation Go Leadership PAC C00683250), and Steve Scalise's (Scalise Leadership Fund C00568162) leadership PACs, could not be identified through the provided web research [1]. This precise data, which would detail disbursements specifically to candidates in competitive districts, was not available within the scope of the research conducted.
Detailed FEC filings for Q3 2026 were not located. The primary reason for this data unavailability is the absence of Q3 2026 FEC filings that include the necessary detailed Schedule B itemizations required to identify such specific disbursements. The filings that were accessible through the research were primarily year-end 2025 reports or subsequent monthly reports, which do not contain the granular itemized data essential for calculating this particular metric. Furthermore, the research did not identify any media analyses or reports that cited this exact fundraising differential [1].
9. What is the 120th House Republican Steering Committee's Speaker preferences?
| 120th Congress Committee Details | Not publicly available as of March 25, 2026 (web research results) [1] |
|---|---|
| 119th Congress Speaker Votes | Mike Johnson (4 votes) (web research results, 1) [1] |
| 119th Congress Leader Votes | Steve Scalise (2 votes) (web research results, 1) [1] |
Information for the 120th Congress Steering Committee is currently unavailable. As of March 25, 2026, the final composition of the House Republican Steering Committee for the 120th Congress (2027-2029) and the stated Speaker preferences of its newly elected regional representatives are not publicly known. Regional representatives for the Steering Committee are typically chosen following general elections; therefore, new members for the 120th Congress would be selected after the 2026 elections. Announcements regarding these new members are anticipated in late 2026 or early 2027. Presently, there are no public sources detailing Speaker preferences for these roles in the context of recommending the party's leadership slate.
Details for the 119th Congress Steering Committee are publicly accessible. In contrast, information regarding the House Republican Steering Committee for the 119th Congress (2025-2027) is available. This committee notably includes prominent leadership figures such as Speaker Mike Johnson, who commands four votes, and Steve Scalise, who holds two votes [1]. Regional representatives serving on the 119th Congress committee include Andrew Garbarino for Region 1, Mike Kelly for Region 2, and David Joyce for Region 3 [1]. This Steering Committee plays a critical role in recommending the party's leadership slate and is responsible for committee chair assignments [2].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Republican Party's current slim majority in the House (217-218 seats) makes them vulnerable to shifts [1]. Historically, the president's party tends to lose seats in midterm elections, with an average loss of 26 seats [2]. This trend, coupled with 56 announced retirements (more from the Republican side), could further erode the GOP's position and create opportunities for the Democratic Party [3]. Several factors could influence the outcome of the November 2026 midterm elections [4]. Internal divisions within the Republican Party and potential backlash against the Trump agenda are seen as bearish indicators for the GOP [5]. Conversely, recent special election results have shown positive trends for Democrats, suggesting a potential tailwind for their chances of gaining control of the House [6]. Prediction markets currently assign a high probability (around 85%) to Democrats winning House control, which would likely position Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker [7].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2031
- Closes: January 01, 2031
Sources (7)
- 1Leader Jeffries could be ‘Speaker Jeffries’ soon. What challenges could he face?washingtonexaminer.com
- 2Which party will win the House in 2026? Trading Odds & Predictions (Nov. 3, 2026) | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 32026 Congressional Election Timeline & Key Dates | Congress Countdowncongresscountdown.com
- 42026 United States House of Representatives electionsen.wikipedia.org
- 5The 2026 Midterms: Key Dates and Events • Bipartisan Policy Centerbipartisanpolicy.org
- 6Will hakeem jeffries be house speaker after the 2026 mid terms? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
- 72026 US House of Representatives Control | Live Odds Comparison | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
