Alaska Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Mary Peltola
Market Model 0.1% 0.2%
Bernadette Wilson
Market Model 26.0% 35.3%
Midterms Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (16)
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Mary Peltola
Market Model 63.0% 74.8%
Sen. Dan Sullivan
Market Model 35.0% 24.8%
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Ashley Hinson (R)
Market Model 60.0% 64.2%
Josh Turek (D)
Market Model 39.0% 35.7%
220-224
Market Model 3.9% 2.8%
205-209
Market Model 11.1% 13.6%
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Tom Tiffany (R)
Market Model 23.0% 27.9%
David Crowley (D)
Market Model 78.0% 72.1%
No Shutdown & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
No Shutdown & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Utah
Market Model 90.0% 86.8%
Indiana
Market Model 4.0% 0.6%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Market Model 59.0% 51.8%
Mike Rogers (R)
Market Model 40.0% 48.2%
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Ken Paxton (R)
Market Model 52.0% 49.0%
James Talarico (D)
Market Model 50.0% 51.0%
28–29
Market Model 3.0% 2.3%
<22
Market Model 18.0% 24.1%
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Troy Jackson (D)
Market Model 69.0% 62.9%
Susan Collins (R)
Market Model 32.0% 37.0%
54
Market Model 4.1% 3.0%
52
Market Model 12.7% 11.7%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 46.0% 41.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 55.0% 58.4%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket
Democrats Sweep
Market Model 46.0% 38.8%
Republicans Sweep
Market Model 13.0% 9.0%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 87.0% 88.4%
Republican Party
Market Model 14.0% 11.6%
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Republican
Market Model 89.0% 91.3%
Democrat
Market Model 10.0% 8.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 0.1% | 0.2% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 63.0% | 74.8% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Ashley Hinson (R) | 60.0% | 64.2% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 220-224 | 3.9% | 2.8% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Tom Tiffany (R) | 23.0% | 27.9% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: No Shutdown & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms? Top outcome: Utah | 90.0% | 86.8% | Med | 64 | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 59.0% | 51.8% | High | 63 | Refresh |
| Texas Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Ken Paxton (R) | 52.0% | 49.0% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 28–29 | 3.0% | 2.3% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Maine Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Troy Jackson (D) | 69.0% | 62.9% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 54 | 4.1% | 3.0% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 46.0% | 41.6% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Top outcome: Democrats Sweep | 46.0% | 38.8% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 87.0% | 88.4% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Florida Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Republican | 89.0% | 91.3% | High | — | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Polymarket
Extended & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Extended & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: Extended & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | 77 |
