Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Ashley Hinson (R)
Market Model 60.0% 64.2%
Josh Turek (D)
Market Model 39.0% 35.7%
Midterms Markets
Active Markets (16)
220-224
Market Model 3.9% 2.8%
205-209
Market Model 11.1% 13.6%
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Tom Tiffany (R)
Market Model 23.0% 27.9%
David Crowley (D)
Market Model 78.0% 72.1%
No Shutdown & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
No Shutdown & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Utah
Market Model 90.0% 86.8%
Indiana
Market Model 4.0% 0.6%
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Polymarket
Extended & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Extended & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Mary Peltola
Market Model 57.0% 50.9%
Dan Sullivan
Market Model 42.0% 48.8%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Market Model 59.0% 51.8%
Mike Rogers (R)
Market Model 40.0% 48.2%
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Ken Paxton (R)
Market Model 52.0% 49.0%
James Talarico (D)
Market Model 50.0% 51.0%
28–29
Market Model 3.0% 2.3%
<22
Market Model 18.0% 24.1%
Alaska Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Mary Peltola
Market Model 1.0% 1.2%
Bernadette Wilson
Market Model 26.0% 27.0%
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Troy Jackson (D)
Market Model 69.0% 62.9%
Susan Collins (R)
Market Model 32.0% 37.0%
54
Market Model 4.1% 3.0%
52
Market Model 12.7% 11.7%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 46.0% 41.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 55.0% 58.4%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket
Democrats Sweep
Market Model 46.0% 38.8%
Republicans Sweep
Market Model 13.0% 9.0%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 87.0% 88.4%
Republican Party
Market Model 14.0% 11.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Ashley Hinson (R) | 60.0% | 64.2% | High | $206,044.92 | Refresh |
| Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 220-224 | 3.9% | 2.8% | High | $286,501.97 | Refresh |
| Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Tom Tiffany (R) | 23.0% | 27.9% | High | $291,599.16 | Refresh |
| Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: No Shutdown & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | $332,396.98 | Refresh |
| Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms? Top outcome: Utah | 90.0% | 86.8% | Med | $395,141.3 | Refresh |
| ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: Extended & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | $404,572.46 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 57.0% | 50.9% | High | $407,832.34 | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 59.0% | 51.8% | High | $467,638.71 | Refresh |
| Texas Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Ken Paxton (R) | 52.0% | 49.0% | High | $667,716.46 | Refresh |
| How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 28–29 | 3.0% | 2.3% | High | $685,946.43 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 1.0% | 1.2% | High | $1,103,514.18 | Refresh |
| Maine Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Troy Jackson (D) | 69.0% | 62.9% | High | $1,124,761.75 | Refresh |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 54 | 4.1% | 3.0% | High | $2,789,166.08 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 46.0% | 41.6% | High | $3,754,539.68 | Refresh |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Top outcome: Democrats Sweep | 46.0% | 38.8% | Med | $9,458,396.97 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 87.0% | 88.4% | High | $9,060,714.17 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Republican
Market Model 89.0% 91.3%
Democrat
Market Model 10.0% 8.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Republican | 89.0% | 91.3% | High | $61,057.64 |
