Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect David Crowley (D) to win the Wisconsin Governor Election, despite Republican Tom Tiffany holding a significant cash-on-hand advantage. Post-primary polling shows Crowley leading Tiffany by 4 points.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which assesses the probability of a Democratic victory in the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election, shows a significant downward trend. The contract opened at 48.0% and climbed to a peak of 61.5%. The market's primary inflection point occurred immediately following the August 11 primary elections. On August 12, the contract price collapsed by 35.5 percentage points, falling from 58.0% to 22.5%. This repricing was a direct reaction to David Crowley's unexpected win in the Democratic primary, which set up a general election matchup against Republican Tom Tiffany.
The price action establishes two distinct trading ranges. Prior to the primary, the contract fluctuated between its opening price of 48.0% and a high of 61.5%. After the primary results, the market established a new, much lower range, finding a floor around 21.5% and currently trading near 23.5%. The abrupt shift indicates that market participants viewed the previous Democratic frontrunner as a stronger general election candidate than Crowley.
Crucially, with a total traded volume of zero contracts, the observed price movements do not reflect actual market activity or capital-weighted conviction. The price changes are likely algorithmically generated by a market maker adjusting to new public information, such as the primary outcome. The lack of volume suggests this is an illiquid market, and its price levels are theoretical rather than a reflection of collective trader sentiment.
  • David Crowley shows a 4-point lead over Tom Tiffany in recent polling.
  • Tom Tiffany holds nearly $5 million in cash-on-hand post-primary.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Tom Tiffany (R) 23.0% 27.9% Republican nominee Tom Tiffany holds a substantial financial advantage with nearly $5 million cash-on-hand.
David Crowley (D) 78.0% 72.1% Post-primary polling indicates Democratic nominee David Crowley leads Republican Tom Tiffany by 4 points.
Option A 0.0% 27.9% Outside deterministic model scope.
Option B 0.0% 27.9% Outside deterministic model scope.
Option C 0.0% 27.9% Outside deterministic model scope.

Current Context

David Crowley and Tom Tiffany won Wisconsin gubernatorial primaries on August 11. Incumbent Governor Tony Evers (D), in office since 2019, announced in July 2025 he would not seek re-election in 2026 [1][2]. The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial primary elections occurred on August 11, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7]. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for governor. He defeated Democratic Socialist Franchesca Hong with 39.8% of the vote to Hong's 39.4%, based on 98% of votes counted [8]. Crowley's campaign comeback received an endorsement from Governor Evers [3][4][5]. Tom Tiffany won the Republican nomination for governor [3][4][5][6][9].
The general election is set for November 3, 2026. This election for Wisconsin governor is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [4][5][10][11][12]. The ballot will feature Democrat David Crowley against Republican Tom Tiffany.
Sources (12)
  1. 1Governor of Wisconsinen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Tony Eversen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Wisconsin Governor Primary Election 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
  4. 4Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryusatoday.com
  5. 5Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryjsonline.com
  6. 6Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 11...ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 11...ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Moderate Democrat Projected to Win Wisconsin Primary; Trump Claims Hormuz Control | Bloomberg...youtube.com
  9. 92026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  10. 10Governor of Wisconsinballotpedia.org
  11. 11Wisconsin state executive official elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  12. 12Wisconsin election calendar - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Tom Tiffany (R)

📉 August 12, 2026: 35.5pp drop

Price decreased from 58.0% to 22.5%

What happened: The primary driver of Tom Tiffany's prediction market price drop on August 12, 2026, was the unexpected victory of Democrat David Crowley in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary on August 11, 2026 [1]. Crowley's upset win against Francesca Hong fundamentally reset the general election dynamics, creating a significantly more competitive race for the governorship [2]. This shift was immediately followed and reinforced by a "Badger Battleground Poll" conducted August 12–13, which showed Crowley leading Tiffany 48% to 44% [3]. Based on the provided sources, social media activity was irrelevant as a driver for this price movement.

Outcome: David Crowley (D)

📉 August 04, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 52.5% to 42.5%

What happened: The provided research indicates there is no documented record of a specific 10.0 percentage point drop in David Crowley's prediction market price on August 4, 2026 [4][5][6]. While Crowley had suspended his campaign on July 8, 2026, and re-entered on July 18, 2026, receiving Governor Tony Evers' endorsement, these significant events occurred earlier [7][8][9][10][11]. Polling leading up to the August 11 primary consistently showed Francesca Hong with a significant lead, which may have generally depressed Crowley's market price but no specific event causing a 10.0pp drop on August 4, 2026, is identified [4][5][6]. Consequently, social media activity appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver for this undocumented movement.
Sources (11)
  1. 1Tom Tiffany Falls to 30% to Win Wisconsin Governor Race - Polls & Odds | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
  2. 2David Crowley’s win sets up Wisconsin race with Trump-backed Tom Tiffany | AP Newsapnews.com
  3. 3Badger Battleground Poll: Crowley leads Tiffany 48% to 44%spectrumnews1.com
  4. 4David Crowley pulls off stunning comeback victory over Francesca Hongjsonline.com
  5. 5The 'Crowley comeback' defied the odds, and reset expectations - WPRwpr.org
  6. 6How David Crowley went from 7% to winning the Democratic primary in two weekscbs58.com
  7. 7Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley ends bid for governor, endorses Sara Rodriguez - WPRwpr.org
  8. 8David Crowley (D) defeated Joel Brennan (D), Francesca...news.ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Wisconsin and Minnesota primaries next to feature... - AP.orgap.org
  10. 10Wisconsin Democrats ask state commission to let mail-in voters recast ballots after changes to gubernatorial candidate field - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  11. 11Wisconsin Democrats want to allow absentee voters to cast a...ap.org

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For a YES resolution, the selected candidate must win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election, as confirmed by a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or by official certification if no such call occurs. A NO resolution triggers if the candidate does not win under these conditions. The market concludes on November 3, 2026, with candidates defined as party nominees and independents considered separately from party options.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
David Crowley (D) $0.78 $0.23 78%
Tom Tiffany (R) $0.24 $0.77 23%
Option A $1.00 $1.00 0%
Option B $1.00 $1.00 0%
Option C $1.00 $1.00 0%
Option D $1.00 $1.00 0%
Option E $1.00 $1.00 0%
Option F $1.00 $1.00 0%
Option G $1.00 $1.00 0%
Option H $1.00 $1.00 0%
Option I $1.00 $1.00 0%
Option J $1.00 $1.00 0%
Other $1.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Traders largely favor David Crowley (D) to win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor election, with his odds currently at 78%, reflecting a consensus that has seen Republican Tom Tiffany's earlier support significantly decline. Arguments for Crowley include his perceived electability as a moderate Democrat who won a competitive primary, his endorsement by the incumbent, and a recent poll showing him with a four-point lead and strong independent support. While Tiffany is noted for his Trump endorsement, explicit arguments for his victory are scarce, with some participants expressing general uncertainty about the outcome.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 60 Caution

Personnel decision: the board and the subject know before any announcement

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score58Caution
Trade quality20% of score68Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score60Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 2 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Personnel decision: the board and the subject know before any announcement

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
68Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first · 11 settled or closed — not scored

David Crowley (D)65
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Tom Tiffany (R)72
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first · 11 settled or closed — not scored

David Crowley (D)—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Tom Tiffany (R)—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 11 settled or closed — not scored

David Crowley (D)95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Tom Tiffany (R)95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
68Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 68 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 82.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 82.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.5c slippage (~2% of a 82.5c contract)

11 settled or closed — not scored

David Crowley (D)65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Tom Tiffany (R)72Market scoreLiquidity72Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 72
Liquidity
72 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 2, 2026

6. How do the post-primary fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for Tom Tiffany and David Crowley compare?

Tom Tiffany Post-Primary Cash-on-Handnearly $5 million [1][2]
David Crowley End of Primary Cash-on-Handapproximately $463,000 [1][2]
Tom Tiffany July 2026 Fundraising$4.61 million [1]
Specific post-primary campaign finance data for Tom Tiffany and David Crowley remains largely unavailable. As of August 18, 2026, comprehensive post-primary campaign finance details, including fundraising totals and cash-on-hand figures for both candidates, have not been publicly disclosed [3][4]. However, financial reports from the primary period offer insight into their campaign resources leading into the general election. Following the August 11, 2026, primary election, Republican candidate Tom Tiffany reported nearly $5 million in cash-on-hand [1][2]. In contrast, Democratic candidate David Crowley concluded his primary reporting period, which spanned July 1–27, with approximately $463,000 in cash-on-hand [1][2].
July 2026 fundraising figures show a significant disparity between candidates. During July 2026, Tom Tiffany raised $4.61 million, a figure substantially bolstered by $4 million in transfers received from the state Republican Party [1]. Over the same period, David Crowley's campaign, following its relaunch, raised between $775,813 and $778,000 [1][5][2].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Tom Tiffany heads into general election with nearly $5M in...jsonline.com
  2. 2Crowley outraises Hong in July, despite briefly leaving...wpr.org
  3. 3David Crowley (Wisconsin)ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Seven Democrats seek Wisconsin governor nomination as Evers retires - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Wisconsin governor's race: New campaign finance reports...wbay.com

7. What does David Crowley's narrow primary victory over Franchesca Hong suggest about Democratic party unity and voter enthusiasm?

Primary Victory Margin0.5 percentage points (approx. 1,200 votes) [1][2][3][4][5]
Crowley's Primary Vote Share39.80% [1][2][3][4][5]
Crowley's General Election Lead4 points (48% to 44%) [6]
David Crowley secured a narrow victory in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary on August 11, 2026, revealing party divisions. He defeated state Assemblymember Francesca Hong by approximately 0.5 percentage points, which amounted to about 1,200 votes [1][2][3][4][5]. Crowley garnered 39.80% of the vote, while Hong received 39.38% [1][2][3][4][5]. This outcome underscored a significant ideological split within the party, highlighting the tension between the Democratic establishment's focus on electability and a progressive faction energized by democratic socialist policies [1][7][8]. Political analysis indicated that these primary results did not conclusively resolve the national debate concerning establishment candidates versus insurgent movements from the left [4].
Democrats quickly unified post-primary, with Crowley holding a general election lead. Following the closely contested primary, Wisconsin Democrats swiftly emphasized party unity to prepare for the general election against Republican nominee U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany [9][10]. Francesca Hong promptly endorsed Crowley and participated in his campaign events, demonstrating a commitment to party cohesion [9][10]. Polling conducted shortly after the primary, between August 12-13, showed Crowley maintaining a modest 4-point lead over Tom Tiffany in the general election matchup, with Crowley at 48% and Tiffany at 44% [6].
Sources (10)
  1. 1David Crowley wins Democratic primary for Wisconsin...pbs.org
  2. 2David Crowley wins Wisconsin Democratic primarycnn.com
  3. 3Crowley's victory sets up a general election match with...pbswisconsin.org
  4. 4Tuesday's takeaways: No clear direction for Wisconsin...ap.org
  5. 52026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Crowley leads Tiffany by 4 points in new head-to-head poll...wpr.org
  7. 7Democratic socialist Francesca Hong tests how far left voters will go in battleground Wisconsin | PBS Newspbs.org
  8. 8Moderate Democrat Projected to Win Wisconsin Primary; Trump Claims Hormuz Control | Bloomberg...youtube.com
  9. 9Wisconsin Democrats preach unity as Hong endorses...wpr.org
  10. 10Francesca Hong joins David Crowley on stump after...jsonline.com

8. Which upcoming debates and campaign finance reporting deadlines between August and November 2026 could serve as major catalysts for this race?

General Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Pre-General Election Report DueEight days before the general election [10]
Late Contribution Reporting Period14 days immediately preceding general election [10]
Campaign finance deadlines are the main catalysts for Wisconsin's gubernatorial race. The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Between August and November 2026, major catalysts for this election primarily involve campaign finance reporting requirements. A critical deadline for state-level candidate committees is the pre-general election campaign finance report, which must be filed eight days before the general election. Additionally, a specific late reporting period for contributions immediately precedes the general election [10].
Strict reporting rules apply to large contributions before the election. During the 14-day period directly preceding the November 3, 2026, general election, candidates are mandated to file special reports within 72 hours. This requirement applies upon receiving any single contribution or cumulative contributions from a single source totaling $1,000 or more [10]. Research indicates no debate events are scheduled between August and November 2026, with major debate events for the 2026 cycle having occurred earlier in the year [11][12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1The 2026 Wisconsin elections calendaristhmus.com
  2. 2Upcoming Elections in the City of MIlwaukeecity.milwaukee.gov
  3. 3Wisconsin elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Wisconsin Election Dates and Deadlinesusvotefoundation.org
  5. 5Wisconsin Vote: Candidates, Races & Voting Informationpbswisconsin.org
  6. 62026 Elections | Superior, WI - Official Websitesuperiorwi.gov
  7. 7Wisconsin gubernatorial and lieutenant...ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 11...ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Governor of Wisconsinballotpedia.org
  10. 10Campaign finance requirements in Wisconsinballotpedia.org
  11. 11Missy Hughes drops out of Wisconsin governor's race, endorses Rodriguez — here's where every candidate stands | Racine County Eyeracinecountyeye.com
  12. 122026 Wisconsin gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
  13. 13During debate, Democrats running for governor find...wpr.org

9. What do the demographic breakdowns in recent Marquette Law School Polls indicate about the key voter blocs for Crowley and Tiffany?

Overall LeadDavid Crowley 48% to Tom Tiffany 44% [1]
Independent VotersDavid Crowley 42% to Tom Tiffany 30% [1]
Tom Tiffany Name Recognition59% in northern and western Wisconsin media markets [2]
Crowley currently holds an overall lead, driven by independent support. Recent polling data indicates David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany with 48% to 44% overall [1]. A significant factor contributing to this lead is Crowley's performance among independent voters, where he garners 42% support compared to Tiffany's 30% [1]. This highlights independent voters as a crucial bloc contributing to Crowley's current advantage.
Primary trends and regional recognition reveal distinct voter engagement. Prior to the primary election, Marquette Law School Polls suggested that older voters, while more undecided, were also more likely to vote, which ultimately benefited David Crowley's nomination [3][4]. Regarding name recognition, Tom Tiffany exhibited higher recognition at 59% in Wisconsin's northern and western media markets, whereas David Crowley's recognition was notably stronger in the Milwaukee market [2]. However, a specific Marquette Law School poll from July 22, 2026, surveying 430 likely voters, does not provide a comprehensive demographic breakdown for the general election candidates, Crowley and Tiffany, thereby limiting detailed insights into current key voter blocs [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Crowley ahead of Tiffany in post-primary Wisconsin...vtcng.com
  2. 2New Marquette Law School Poll Finds Large Majorities of...urbanmilwaukee.com
  3. 3A Look at 2026 Primary Polling in Wisconsinlaw.marquette.edu
  4. 4Were Wisconsin governor polls wrong? What they did, didn...jsonline.com
  5. 5Wisconsin gubernatorial and lieutenant...ballotpedia.org

10. How do David Crowley's and Tom Tiffany's platforms on key state issues like economic policy and education compare?

Crowley's Economic PriorityExpanding affordable housing and care (Crowley platform [1][2][3])
Tiffany's Economic PriorityTax cuts, regulatory relief, returning budget surplus (Tiffany platform [1][4][3])
Education Policy ContrastCrowley supports full public school funding; Tiffany supports school choice (Platforms [5][1][2][3][4])
David Crowley (Democrat) and Tom Tiffany (Republican), candidates for the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election, present contrasting economic policy visions. Crowley’s platform focuses on fostering local ownership, supporting union labor, and aiding entrepreneurs by streamlining state permitting processes and increasing access to affordable capital for small businesses [5]. He also prioritizes addressing affordability challenges in health care and child care [1][2][3]. In contrast, Tiffany’s economic strategy emphasizes affordability through tax cuts, regulatory relief, and returning the state’s budget surplus to taxpayers [1][4][3]. Tiffany has also voiced criticism against taxpayer-subsidized data centers [1][4][3].
Their approaches to education policy also reveal significant differences. Crowley advocates for full funding for public schools, encompassing support for universal early childhood education, K-12 public schools, and special education services [5][1][2][3]. Tiffany, on the other hand, supports school choice as a core tenet of his education platform [1][4][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Tiffany launches campaign in Mosinee, Crowley visits Fox...wsaw.com
  2. 2Crowley knocks Tiffany as he seeks to unify Dems after...wispolitics.com
  3. 3Democratic gubernatorial candidates split on educationwisconsinexaminer.com
  4. 4David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany in first fall gubernatorial pollwisconsinwatch.org
  5. 5David Crowley (Wisconsin)ballotpedia.org

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with polls open from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. CST [1][2]. The partisan primary was held on August 11, 2026 [3][4]. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers declined to seek re-election in 2026 [4][5][6]. Following the primaries, David Crowley (Democratic Party) and Tom Tiffany (Republican Party) emerged as candidates [7][8][9][10]. Jamie Jo Carothers is also running as an Independent candidate [11].
Republican candidate Tom Tiffany holds a significant financial advantage, having raised $13.3 million as of late July 2026 [12]. Leading Democratic contenders Crowley and Hong each raised roughly $1 million during the same period [12]. Before the August 11 primary, the Democratic field included candidates such as David Crowley, Francesca Hong, Kelda Roys, and Joel Brennan [4][13][12]. An upset in the Democratic governor's primary race could check momentum [14].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (14)
  1. 1Wisconsin 2026 General Electionthegreenpapers.com
  2. 2Wisconsin gubernatorial and lieutenant...ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Wisconsin Elections Commission Calendar of Election Eventselections.wi.gov
  4. 42026 Wisconsin gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Governor of Wisconsinen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6Tony Eversen.wikipedia.org
  7. 72026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 11...ballotpedia.org
  10. 10Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 11...ballotpedia.org
  11. 11Governor of Wisconsinballotpedia.org
  12. 12What to expect in Wisconsin’s state primary | AP Newsapnews.com
  13. 13An undecided voter's guide to the Wisconsin governor candidatesjsonline.com
  14. 14Moderate Democrat Projected to Win Wisconsin Primary; Trump Claims Hormuz Control | Bloomberg...youtube.com