Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (0.2% Brackets)
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Crowley 0.4–0.6% is most likely, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- David Crowley won the primary; unofficial results consistently report a 0.42% margin.
- Francesca Hong did not win the primary, invalidating all victory outcomes for her.
- Other Crowley margin brackets are highly improbable, given the 0.42% unofficial margin.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
Crowley's victory followed a tight contest and a key endorsement. He received 39.80% of the vote, while Hong garnered 39.38% [^][^]. Crowley's win was supported by a late endorsement from Governor Tony Evers, which contributed to his success after re-entering the race following the withdrawal of other candidates [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price shows a definitive collapse following the event's resolution. The contract opened with a perceived probability of 25.5% on August 12, 2026, before plummeting. The primary price movement was a 14.8 percentage point drop, which occurred as official results for the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary were reported. Reports confirmed David Crowley secured the nomination over Francesca Hong by a narrow margin of 0.42 percentage points. This outcome directly contradicted the conditions for the market to resolve affirmatively, causing the price to fall toward zero.
The complete absence of trading volume, with zero contracts traded throughout the market's duration, is the most critical technical factor. The price movements do not reflect trader sentiment or capital allocation but rather programmatic adjustments based on external data. The initial 25.5% price was a starting point that was never tested or validated by market activity. Consequently, there are no meaningful support or resistance levels to analyze. The chart simply illustrates the binary outcome of an election on an illiquid prediction market, with the price moving from an opening estimate to a post-resolution value near its floor of 1.1%.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 12, 2026: 60.0pp spike
Price increased from 25.5% to 85.5%
Outcome: Crowley 0.4–0.6%
What happened: The primary driver of the 60 percentage point spike for the "Crowley 0.4–0.6%" outcome was the official reporting of the Wisconsin Democratic primary election results. On August 11, 2026, David Crowley defeated Francesca Hong by a margin of 0.48 percentage points (39.81% to 39.33%) [^][^] or 0.42 percentage points (39.80% to 39.38%) [^][^], with major news outlets reporting these outcomes from the evening of the election into August 12 [^][^][^]. The confirmed margin falling precisely within the 0.4–0.6% bracket led to the market pricing in the actual election result. There is no evidence from the provided sources indicating social media activity played a primary driving role or contributing accelerant.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For a specific outcome bracket to resolve as "YES", the absolute difference in valid vote percentages between the top two candidates in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary must fall within that specified range. If the calculated margin falls exactly between two brackets, the higher margin bracket will resolve "YES". The market will resolve to "Other" if official results are not definitively known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in specific tie scenarios where neither or only one of the tied candidates is listed for a low bracket.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
In the August 11, 2026, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, David Crowley secured victory over Francesca Hong by 3,279 votes, representing a margin of approximately 0.42 percentage points [^]. This result, one of the most narrowly decided gubernatorial primaries in Wisconsin history, fell within the 1% threshold, allowing Francesca Hong the option to request a recount [^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Crowley 0.2–0.4%PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Hong 1%+Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Hong 0.8–1%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Hong 0.6–0.8%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Hong 0.4–0.6%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Hong 0.2–0.4%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Hong <0.2%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Crowley <0.2%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Crowley 0.4–0.6%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Crowley 0.6–0.8%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Crowley 0.8–1%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Crowley 1–1.2%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Crowley 1.2–1.4%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Crowley 1.4–1.6%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Crowley 1.6–1.8%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Crowley 1.8–2%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Crowley 2%+Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
OtherTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 18, 2026
6. How did Governor Tony Evers' late endorsement of David Crowley influence the outcome of the August 2026 primary?
| Evers' Endorsement Date | July 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Date | August 11, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Margin of Victory | 0.42 percentage points [^][^][^][^] |
David Crowley secured a narrow victory in the August 11, 2026, Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor. He defeated Francesca Hong by a margin of 0.42 percentage points, garnering 39.80% of the vote compared to Hong's 39.38% [^][^][^][^]. This outcome was widely attributed to Governor Tony Evers' critical late endorsement on July 18, 2026, which fueled Crowley's comeback [^][^][^][^]. Earlier that month, Crowley had suspended his campaign but re-entered the race following Evers' public support [^][^][^]. This narrow win was considered a stunning comeback and an upset in the Democratic governor's race [^][^][^][^].
Evers' endorsement significantly influenced Crowley's final campaign strategy and highlighted party divisions. After receiving the endorsement, Crowley actively campaigned alongside Governor Evers in the final week before the primary, consistently emphasizing his electability against Republican opponent Tom Tiffany [^][^][^][^]. The endorsement also underscored a perceived internal division within the Wisconsin Democratic Party, drawing a line between traditional establishment figures and the progressive wing, which Francesca Hong represented [^][^]. Crowley's victory, with an approximate raw vote difference of 3,279 votes, solidified his unexpected success [^][^][^][^].
7. What do the certified election results confirm about the final vote margin between David Crowley and Francesca Hong?
| David Crowley Votes | 313,509 (39.80%) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Francesca Hong Votes | 310,230 (39.38%) [^][^] |
| Vote Margin | 3,279 votes (0.42%) [^][^] |
Certified results confirming the final vote margin are not yet universally finalized. As of August 18, 2026, the official canvassed or certified results detailing the exact final vote margin between David Crowley and Francesca Hong have not been universally finalized or reported as certified [^][^][^][^]. Despite this, David Crowley won the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary on August 11, 2026, defeating Francesca Hong [^][^][^]. Initial reports immediately following the election indicated Crowley's margin of victory was less than 0.5% [^][^][^][^].
David Crowley won the primary by 3,279 votes. In the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, David Crowley secured 313,509 votes, representing 39.80% of the total [^][^]. Francesca Hong received 310,230 votes, amounting to 39.38% [^][^]. This outcome resulted in Crowley's victory by a margin of 3,279 votes, which constituted a 0.42 percentage point difference over Francesca Hong [^][^].
8. How did David Crowley's and Francesca Hong's electoral performance compare across key Wisconsin counties like Milwaukee and Dane?
| Crowley's Vote in Milwaukee Co. | 47.7% (David Crowley) [^] |
|---|---|
| Hong's Vote in Dane Co. | 48.3% (Francesca Hong) [^] |
| Final Primary Result | Crowley 39.80%, Hong 39.38% [^][^][^] |
Crowley and Hong exhibited distinct regional strengths across key counties. In the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary, David Crowley demonstrated a strong performance in Milwaukee County, securing 47.7% of the vote, while Francesca Hong received 30.5% in the same county [^]. Conversely, Hong achieved a dominant result in Dane County, garnering 48.3% of the vote and significantly outpacing Crowley, who received 28.8% [^].
9. What official sources and timelines were used to certify the vote count for the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary in August 2026?
| Certification Authority | Wisconsin Elections Commission [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Election Certified | Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary (August 11, 2026) [^] |
| County Canvass Timeline | At least one week after election [^] |
Wisconsin Elections Commission certifies the August 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary vote count. State election authorities, specifically operating under the jurisdiction of the Wisconsin Elections Commission, are solely responsible for the official certification of the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary vote count for the August 11, 2026 election [^][^]. This crucial certification process is managed entirely at the state level, with no involvement from federal agencies [^][^].
Certification involves county canvassing boards meeting one week post-election. The initial phase of this certification process entails a canvass performed by county boards of canvassers. These boards are required to convene at least one week following the election, strictly adhering to guidelines established by the Wisconsin Elections Commission [^]. While this process outlines the steps, the exact date for the final state-level certification for the August 2026 primary is not specified in the available information [^][^].
10. How did late-stage campaign spending by the Crowley and Hong campaigns correlate with turnout in key precincts?
| Crowley Campaign Spending | $4 million (combined with supporting groups) [^] |
|---|---|
| Hong Campaign Spending (Media-related) | $300,598 (through July 27) [^][^] |
| Democratic Primary Turnout (2026) | nearly 800,000 votes [^] |
David Crowley narrowly won the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary. He defeated Francesca Hong by a margin of less than 0.5%, securing 39.80% (313,509 votes) compared to Hong's 39.38% (310,230 votes) [^][^][^]. This primary election recorded a significantly high turnout of nearly 800,000 votes, surpassing the 538,000 votes cast in the 2018 primary [^].
Late-stage spending differed significantly between the two campaigns. Crowley's campaign and its supporting groups experienced a late surge in combined spending, reaching $4 million, and was further bolstered by millions spent by Republican-affiliated groups opposing Hong [^][^]. In contrast, Hong's media-related expenditures were reported at $300,598 through July 27 [^][^]. Geographically, Crowley focused on increasing turnout in Milwaukee, expanding margins in suburban areas, and maintaining support in rural communities, while Hong performed strongly in Madison, winning by nearly 7 percentage points [^]. However, specific data correlating late-stage campaign spending by either campaign directly to turnout in key precincts is not publicly available [^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Final unofficial percentage results for the top two candidates were David Crowley (39.8%) and Francesca Hong (39.3%), representing a margin of 0.5% [^] [^] . In the August 11, 2026, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, David Crowley received 313,509 votes (39.80%) and Francesca Hong received 310,230 votes (39.38%) [^][^]. The margin of victory for David Crowley over Francesca Hong was 0.42 percentage points [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: August 12, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin on August 11, 2026, defeating Francesca Hong [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The race remained too close to call deep into election night [^] .
- Trigger: With 98% of votes tallied, Crowley led Francesca Hong by less than 0.5% [^] .
- Trigger: Final unofficial percentage results for the top two candidates were David Crowley (39.8%) and Francesca Hong (39.3%), representing a margin of 0.5% [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
