Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Ashley Hinson (R) to win the Iowa Senate Election. There is no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This contract's price has moved within a narrow 4-point band, drifting from a starting probability of 55.5% to a recent high of 59.5%. The overall trend is a slow upward grind within a sideways channel. The current price of 59.5% establishes the top of the trading range and acts as a resistance level, while the 55.5% low marks initial support. The sample data shows a steady, incremental rise over the period tracked.
The defining characteristic of this market is a total lack of traded volume. With zero contracts exchanged, the price movements do not reflect actual trader sentiment, conviction, or capital allocation. The shifts in probability are not the result of organic buying or selling pressure. Instead, they likely represent automated adjustments to the market's baseline odds or indicative quotes from a market maker.
Given the zero-volume environment, the price increases cannot be credibly linked to any external news or developments regarding the race between Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson. Without trading activity, the chart does not provide any information about how market participants are reacting to campaign events or polling. The price action is effectively theoretical and does not represent a consensus view based on wagers.
  • Republicans likely win; Ashley Hinson leads fundraising as of August 2026.
  • Hinson also holds a 3-point lead in an August 2026 Emerson College poll.
  • The open seat is rated "Lean Republican" by the Cook Political Report.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Ashley Hinson (R) 60.0% 64.2% Republican Ashley Hinson has a substantial fundraising lead and an August 2026 poll shows her ahead.
Josh Turek (D) 39.0% 35.7% The race for an open seat is unpredictable, and Josh Turek's campaign targets moderate voters.
Other 0.0% 0.0% Outside deterministic model scope.
Person A 0.0% 0.0% Outside deterministic model scope.
Person B 0.0% 0.0% Outside deterministic model scope.

Current Context

Iowa's 2026 Senate election features Turek, Hinson for Ernst's seat. The U.S. Senate election in Iowa is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to fill the seat being vacated by retiring incumbent Senator Joni Ernst (R) [1][2][3][4][5]. Major party nominees are Democratic state representative and Paralympian Josh Turek and Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson [1][2][4][6][7][5]. Thomas Laehn is running as a Libertarian candidate [1][2][4][6][5]. In the June 2, 2026, primary elections, Josh Turek defeated state Senator Zach Wahls, 62.7% to 37.3%. Ashley Hinson defeated former state Senator Jim Carlin, 74.2% to 25.8% [2][3][4][8].
The Iowa Senate race shows tight polling and significant funding. Polling in August 2026 indicates a close contest; one Emerson College poll shows Ashley Hinson leading Josh Turek by three percentage points, 48% to 45% [9][10]. Earlier polls from June showed varied results, including leads for both Hinson and Turek [9]. Campaign finance reports as of August 2026 indicate Ashley Hinson has raised $6.75 million, while Josh Turek has raised $3.91 million [5]. This race is considered a key battleground for Senate control, drawing substantial outside spending. The Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $29 million for the GOP, and the Democratic Senate Majority PAC has reserved $13.4 million [2][3][6][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1United States Senate election in Iowa, 2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 2Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson to compete for crucial US Senate seat in Iowa | AP Newsapnews.com
  3. 3Turek, Hinson advance to midterms after Iowa Senate primary election winsnbcnews.com
  4. 42026 United States Senate election in Iowaen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Turek, Hinson running for open U.S. Senate seat in Iowa as...news.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Turek wins Iowa Senate primary, will face Hinson | Iowa Campaigns and Elections | thegazette.comthegazette.com
  7. 7Democrat Josh Turek and GOP's Ashley Hinson to compete...ap.org
  8. 8U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson wins GOP nomination for...iowacapitaldispatch.com
  9. 9Democrat Josh Turek trails Republican Ashley Hinson by 3 points: Pollwashingtonexaminer.com
  10. 10Iowa Senate race set between Democrat Josh Turek...cbsnews.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if a specified candidate wins the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs, and NO otherwise. Resolution primarily occurs when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; failing that, official certification determines the outcome. Independent candidates are not covered by the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' options, and the election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Ashley Hinson (R) $0.60 $0.41 60%
Josh Turek (D) $0.41 $0.60 39%
Other $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person A $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person B $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person C $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person D $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person E $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person F $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person G $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person H $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person I $1.00 $1.00 0%
Person J $1.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Despite the market favoring Ashley Hinson (R) at 60%, the limited trader discussion indicates some skepticism, with one user suggesting the race is "50-50." Arguments against Hinson's strong lead include criticism of her campaign style. While the market context notes Iowa's Republican lean and Hinson's establishment support, the comments imply a belief that the contest could be tighter than current odds reflect.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 62 Caution

Personnel decision: the board and the subject know before any announcement

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score58Caution
Trade quality20% of score78Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 1% of the price to slippage.

Trust score62Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 2 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on “Ashley Hinson (R)” carried 57% of its $12,927 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 3d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Personnel decision: the board and the subject know before any announcement

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
83Deep

Size fills near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first · 11 settled or closed — not scored

Josh Turek (D)82
Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 2.4% of price with size at both touches

Ashley Hinson (R)84
Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.7% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first · 11 settled or closed — not scored

Ashley Hinson (R)—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Josh Turek (D)—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 11 settled or closed — not scored

Ashley Hinson (R)95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Josh Turek (D)95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
78Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 83 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 41.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 41.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 41.5c contract)

11 settled or closed — not scored

Ashley Hinson (R)84Market scoreLiquidity84Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 84
Liquidity
84 · Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.7% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Josh Turek (D)82Market scoreLiquidity82Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 82
Liquidity
82 · Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 2.4% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 1, 2026

5. How do Ashley Hinson's and Josh Turek's stated policy positions and voting records on agriculture and trade compare?

Hinson's Trade PositionSupports maintaining current trade tariffs [1][2][3]
Turek's Trade PositionAdvocates for ending trade tariffs [1][2][3]
Hinson's Agricultural InitiativeLed the EATS Act [4]
Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek hold opposing views on trade tariffs. Hinson supports the continuation of existing trade tariffs, while Turek argues for their termination, asserting that these tariffs harm Iowa farmers by increasing input costs and restricting access to export markets [1][2][3].
Agricultural policy reveals distinct approaches from both candidates. As a Republican U.S. Representative, Hinson champions the protection of farm safety nets and support for commodity growers. She opposes initiatives like the Green New Deal, which she believes would damage the agricultural sector, and promotes renewable energy and biofuels while rejecting what she deems excessive regulatory burdens and unfair taxes on producers [5]. Hinson also led the EATS Act, an initiative that encountered significant opposition from some farm groups [4]. Conversely, Turek, a Democratic state Representative, campaigns on federal right-to-repair legislation, mandatory country-of-origin labeling, and the dissolution of agribusiness monopolies [3][6]. Both candidates have recently emphasized the urgent need for a new Farm Bill, with Turek specifically criticizing his own party for delays in the Senate Agriculture Committee [6].
Hinson’s extensive voting record contrasts with Turek’s less documented specifics. While Ashley Hinson possesses an extensive congressional voting record, detailed specific policy positions for Josh Turek regarding agricultural and trade legislation are less documented in the current campaign cycle compared to Hinson's established record [7][8]. The available information outlines Hinson's general stances and her leadership on the EATS Act, but a detailed comparative analysis of their specific voting records on these issues is not provided by the current research [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Iowa Farmers Call Out Chaotic Tariffs That Ashley Hinson...iowademocrats.org
  2. 2Iowa Senate candidate Josh Turek outlines farm policies...ktiv.com
  3. 3Pushing for Change | Josh Turek's Platformturek4iowa.com
  4. 4Farmers and Ranchers Storm Capitol Hill in Fierceglobenewswire.com
  5. 5Iowa's 1st Congressional District election, 2020ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Josh Turek slams Senate Democrats over stalled Farm Billthegazette.com
  7. 7Democrat Josh Turek and GOP's Ashley Hinson to compete...ap.org
  8. 8Turek, Hinson running for open U.S. Senate seat in Iowa as...news.ballotpedia.org

6. What is the data-driven case for a Josh Turek victory, considering historical midterm trends and Democratic voter registration numbers in Iowa for 2026?

Campaign Fundraising$6.28 million (as of June 30, 2026) [1]
Seat RatingLikely Republican [2][3]
Recent State TrendRepublican shift [4][5]
Josh Turek's campaign targets an open Iowa Senate seat in 2026. His strategy against Ashley Hinson is designed to exceed traditional partisan performance, capitalizing on the open nature of the race despite Iowa's recent shift towards Republican voters [4][5]. By June 30, 2026, Turek's campaign had successfully raised $6.28 million [1]. This approach seeks to overcome the recent trend of comfortable, double-digit Republican victories in Iowa, as independent forecasters currently assess the seat as Likely Republican [4][5][2][3].
Turek aims to attract moderate voters with a bipartisan platform. He highlights his 'fighter for the people' platform, positioning himself as a representative for all Iowans [4][5][6]. His campaign emphasizes his bipartisan moderate background and his experience winning a state House seat in a district that had previously voted for Donald Trump [4][5][7]. Turek's goal is to replicate this success and draw a clear contrast with Hinson's record [4][5][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Turek, Hinson running for open U.S. Senate seat in Iowa as...news.ballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 United States Senate election in Iowaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Josh Turek defeated Zach Wahls in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Iowa on June 2, 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Turek, Hinson advance to midterms after Iowa Senate primary election winsnbcnews.com
  5. 5Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson to compete for crucial US...apnews.com
  6. 6Josh Turek for Iowaturek4iowa.com
  7. 7Democrat Josh Turek and GOP's Ashley Hinson to compete...ap.org

7. How might the results of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election impact voter turnout and down-ballot results for Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek?

Hinson Senate Election Probability57% (Decision Desk HQ) [1]
Turek Senate Election Probability43% (Decision Desk HQ) [1]
Iowa Voter RegistrationSignificant Republican advantage [2]
The 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election will significantly impact the U.S. Senate race. The contest between Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand and Republican businessman Zach Lahn is expected to influence the concurrent U.S. Senate election featuring Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek [3][4][5][2][6][7]. This dynamic is crucial because the Senate contest is identified as a base turnout election, where each party's ability to mobilize its voters is critical [2][8][9][10].
Gubernatorial campaigns will drive distinct mobilization strategies for Senate candidates. Ashley Hinson's success in the Senate race relies on mobilizing Trump-aligned voters, a strategy that could be bolstered by the Republican gubernatorial campaign [2]. Conversely, Josh Turek's path to victory requires him to differentiate himself from the national Democratic Party to appeal to moderate or independent voters, particularly in a state with a significant Republican registration advantage [2]. The presence of both gubernatorial candidates is expected to contribute to overall party voter mobilization efforts on November 3, 2026, thereby affecting turnout for the Senate contenders [3][4][5][2][6][7].
Current forecasts suggest a tight Senate race influenced by the gubernatorial contest. Decision Desk HQ forecasts Ashley Hinson to be narrowly favored in the 2026 U.S. Senate election, assigning her a 57% probability of winning compared to 43% for Josh Turek [1]. This projection underscores the competitive nature of the race and the potential impact of the gubernatorial election on its outcome.
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 Iowa US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 2How Ashley Hinson, Josh Turek stack up in close US...desmoinesregister.com
  3. 3Iowa gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election...ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Governor of Iowaballotpedia.org
  5. 52026 Iowa gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6Zach Lahnballotpedia.org
  7. 7Rob Sandballotpedia.org
  8. 8United States Senate election in Iowa, 2026ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Democrat Josh Turek and GOP's Ashley Hinson to compete...ap.org
  10. 10Turek, Hinson running for open U.S. Senate seat in Iowa as...news.ballotpedia.org

8. How is the significant outside spending from groups like the Senate Leadership Fund and Senate Majority PAC being allocated between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek in the final months of the 2026 campaign?

Senate Leadership Fund Commitment$29 million for Ashley Hinson (2026 Iowa U.S. Senate race) [1][2]
Senate Majority PAC Commitment$13 million for Josh Turek (2026 general election) [1][2]
Josh Turek Outside Support$9.78 million (as of July 2026 FEC data) [3][4]
National PACs are heavily investing in Iowa's 2026 U.S. Senate race. The 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election is drawing significant financial commitments from national political action committees. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has pledged $29 million to support candidate Ashley Hinson, with plans to fund broadcast television, cable, streaming, and radio advertising, as well as field organizing and get-out-the-vote efforts [1][2]. These activities are scheduled to run from the summer through Election Day on November 3, 2026 [1][2]. On the Democratic side, the Senate Majority PAC has committed $13 million to bolster Josh Turek's campaign for the general election, outlining similar spending for advertising and grassroots initiatives during the same period [1][2].
FEC data reveals substantial outside support for both candidates. According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data from the July 2026 quarterly reporting period, Ashley Hinson's campaign received between $1.17 million and $2.50 million in outside support, alongside $536,861 in outside opposition spending [3][4]. During the same reporting period, Josh Turek's campaign notably received $9.78 million in outside support [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1National Republicans to spend $29 million in Iowa's open...desmoinesregister.com
  2. 2A Paralympian and ‘prairie populist’: How this Iowa Senate candidate is trying to spark a rural revival for Democrats | National Politics | news8000.comnews8000.com
  3. 32026 Iowa US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 Iowa US Senate Forecastintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com

9. What do the final campaign finance reports from Q3 2026 reveal about the cash-on-hand advantage for Ashley Hinson versus Josh Turek?

Q3 2026 Reports StatusNot yet available; due by October 15, 2026 [1][2]
Ashley Hinson Cash-on-Hand (June 30, 2026)$6,749,491.49 [3][4]
Funds Raised (June 30, 2026)Ashley Hinson: $23,009,662; Josh Turek: $6,276,527 [5][6]
Q3 2026 campaign finance reports are not yet public. As of August 18, 2026, the final campaign finance reports for the third quarter of 2026, which cover the period from July 1 to September 30, 2026, have not been released. These reports are scheduled to be filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by October 15, 2026 [1][2]. Therefore, the precise cash-on-hand advantage between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek for Q3 2026 cannot be determined from these reports at this time [7][8][9].
Ashley Hinson held a substantial cash-on-hand lead as of Q2 2026. Data from previous reporting periods offers insight into their financial standings. As of the June 30, 2026, reporting deadline, Ashley Hinson's principal campaign committee reported an ending cash-on-hand of $6,749,491.49 [3][4]. At that same time, Hinson had raised a total of $23,009,662 and spent $16,375,336. In comparison, Josh Turek had raised $6,276,527 and spent $3,914,213 [5][6]. The exact cash-on-hand for Josh Turek as of June 30, 2026, was not specified in the provided information.
Historical trends consistently show Hinson's financial advantage. Throughout earlier periods, including Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, Ashley Hinson has consistently maintained a significant cash-on-hand advantage over her Democratic opponents, including Josh Turek [10][11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1REPORT OF RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS - FECdocquery.fec.gov
  2. 2FEC FORM 3 - REPORT OF RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTSdocquery.fec.gov
  3. 3FEC Disclosure Form 3 for Ashley for Iowadocquery.fec.gov
  4. 4ASHLEY FOR IOWA - committee overview | FECfec.gov
  5. 52026 Iowa US Senate Forecastintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Iowa US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7United States Senate election in Iowa, 2026ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Turek, Hinson advance to midterms after Iowa Senate primary election winsnbcnews.com
  9. 92026 United States Senate election in Iowaen.wikipedia.org
  10. 10Democratic candidates start 2026 with a fundraising bang | Agriculture | hastingstribune.comhastingstribune.com
  11. 114 takeaways from Senate and House fundraising reports...rollcall.com
  12. 12GOP federal candidates outraise Democrats in Iowaiowacapitaldispatch.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa is scheduled for November 3, 2026, for an open seat following incumbent Senator Joni Ernst's decision not to seek re-election [1][2][3][4]. Josh Turek secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary, and U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson secured the Republican nomination [4][5]. Thomas Laehn is running as the Libertarian Party candidate [1][3][4]. As of September 2025, independent forecasters rated the seat as Likely Republican or Solid Republican [5].
The Cook Political Report shifted the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" following the primary elections, indicating a competitive contest [6][7]. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend $29 million on the race [8]. Hinson has campaigned on issues including border security, the economy, and corruption in Washington, specifically supporting a ban on members of Congress trading stocks or participating in prediction markets [7][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1United States Senate election in Iowa, 2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 2General Election | Iowa Secretary of State - Paul D. Patesos.iowa.gov
  3. 3Turek, Hinson running for open U.S. Senate seat in Iowa as Ernst retires - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Democrat Josh Turek and GOP's Ashley Hinson to compete...ap.org
  5. 5Rep. Ashley Hinson becomes the 10th U.S. House member...news.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Turek wins Iowa Senate primary, will face Hinson | Iowa Campaigns and Elections | thegazette.comthegazette.com
  7. 7U.S. Senate election: Ashley Hinson, Josh Turek win Iowa primary races - KCCIkcci.com
  8. 8Turek, Hinson advance to midterms after Iowa Senate primary election winsnbcnews.com
  9. 9U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson wins GOP nomination for...iowacapitaldispatch.com