Alaska Senate Election
Short Answer
Mary Peltola is expected to win the Alaska Senate election, driven by her significant fundraising advantage of $18.55 million in total receipts and consistent polling leads. The market prices this outcome at 63.0%, diverging from a model probability of 74.8%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market shows no trading volume. The price, currently at 63.5% for Senator Dan Sullivan's re-election, has fluctuated within a narrow band without any capital backing the moves. The lack of activity means the price does not reflect active market sentiment or reaction to external events.
The stable odds persist despite reports of a new poll showing a tied race between incumbent Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola. The general election ballot, finalized as of early September, also includes two other Republican candidates, Dan J. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes. Any price drift is a function of the market's mechanism, not trader conviction.
- Since last update (~23d): Mary Peltola's model probability surged by +23.9pp, flipping the edge to model-favored.
- Sen. Dan Sullivan's model probability decreased by -24.0pp, with his edge also flipping.
- The model's overall edge for the headline outcome significantly widened by +17.9pp.
- David Leslie's outcome status changed from closed to active, with minor probability movement.
- Mary Peltola shows a strong probability lead, driven by significant fundraising advantage. Peltola appears favored by consistent polling data and forecaster models. * Senator Sullivan trails due to a fundraising deficit and most polling data.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 63.0% | 74.8% | Mary Peltola holds a strong fundraising advantage and consistently leads or ties in polling data. |
| Sen. Dan Sullivan | 35.0% | 24.8% | Dan Sullivan significantly trails in fundraising and most polling, with potential voter confusion from another candidate. |
| Ann Diener | 0.1% | 0.1% | Ann Diener lacks specific polling data, fundraising, or significant news coverage indicating viability. |
| Richard Grayson | 0.1% | 0.1% | Richard Grayson lacks specific polling data, fundraising, or significant news coverage indicating viability. |
| Dustin Darden | 0.1% | 0.1% | Dustin Darden lacks specific polling data, fundraising, or significant news coverage indicating viability. |
Current Context
The Alaska U.S. Senate general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, for the Class II seat [1]. As of September 9, 2026, the general election ballot lists incumbent Republican Senator Daniel S. Sullivan, Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, Republican Dan J. Sullivan, and Republican Gerald Heikes [2][3][4][1]. This lineup followed the August 31, 2026, withdrawal of fourth-place primary finisher David Leslie, which elevated Heikes under Alaska's top-four open primary and ranked-choice voting system [2][3][4][5]. A legal dispute earlier ensured Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, appeared on the primary ballot alongside the incumbent senator [6]. Polling indicates a statistically tied contest between Peltola and Senator Sullivan, with some analysts categorizing the race as a toss-up or slightly favoring Peltola (Tilt D) [2][4]. Peltola won the August 18, 2026, primary election by 8% [2][7]. The general election has not yet occurred, and the winner remains undetermined [1][7][8].
Sources (11)
- 1United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Peltola won primary by 8%, but new poll shows general election race tied with Sen. Sullivanjuneauindependent.com
- 3Alaska’s 4th-place U.S. Senate finisher drops out, elevating GOP candidate to ballot - Anchorage Daily Newsadn.com
- 4Mary Peltola’s Alaska Chances As Dem Drops Out, Race Moves To ‘Tilt D’ - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 5Alaska’s US Senate race: Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivanthealaskacurrent.com
- 6Alaska Supreme Court rules that Dan Sullivan must appear on the state’s U.S. Senate ballot this year - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 72026 Alaska US Senate Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 82026 Alaska US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 9Senate fight reaches 'pure toss-up' status before midterms, DDHQ saysthehill.com
- 10Republicans were confident about keeping the Senate. Now the battle is wide openpbs.org
- 11The GOP was confident about keeping its Senate majority. Now the fight for control is wide open - ABC Newsabcnews.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs, scheduled for November 3, 2026. The resolution relies on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all calling the race for the same candidate; otherwise, official certification will determine the outcome. If results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market will resolve to "Other."
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | $0.64 | $0.37 | 63% |
| Sen. Dan Sullivan | $0.37 | $0.65 | 35% |
| Ann Diener | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| David Leslie | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Dustin Darden | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Richard Grayson | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate C | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate D | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate E | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate F | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate G | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate H | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate I | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate J | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate K | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate L | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate M | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate N | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate O | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate P | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate Q | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate R | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate S | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate T | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate U | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate V | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate W | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Other | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | $0.00 | $1.00 | — |
Market Discussion
The market heavily favors Mary Peltola (64%) to win the Alaska Senate election, driven by her strong primary performance, fundraising edge, name recognition from her House service, and centrist appeal in a ranked-choice voting state. Arguments against Peltola winning emphasize Sen. Dan Sullivan's incumbency and the Republican base, with some traders expressing skepticism despite her current lead. While forecasters rate the general election a tossup, the market reflects Peltola's strong initial standing amidst limited new polling data.
4. Trust Index
Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.
Integrity risk· Outcome control
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good
Resolution quality is low (60), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score69Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 4% of the price to slippage.
Trust score77Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 4 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
5. How do Sen. Dan Sullivan's and Mary Peltola's voting records and stated platforms on energy and natural resource development compare?
| Dan Sullivan's Stance | Consistently promotes aggressive expansion of oil, gas, and mining [1] |
|---|---|
| Mary Peltola's Stance | Balances development with local decision-making and fisheries protection [1] |
| Shared Support | Major natural resource projects in Alaska [1] |
Both Senator Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola identify as pro-development, supporting major natural resource projects in Alaska [1]. However, their approaches to development diverge significantly. Sullivan consistently advocates for aggressive expansion of oil, gas, and mining, whereas Peltola maintains a more nuanced stance, balancing development with local decision-making and the protection of fisheries [1].
Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan strongly promotes expanding oil, gas, and mining in Alaska. He supports opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) to drilling, and aims to streamline federal permitting for infrastructure projects [1]. Sullivan's political platform centers on defending fossil fuel expansion against environmental opposition, aligning with broader Republican efforts to increase domestic energy production and reduce permitting restrictions [1].
Mary Peltola balances development with local interests and fisheries protection. Democrat Mary Peltola also identifies as pro-development, supporting projects like the Willow oil field and expanded drilling in NPR-A [1]. Her approach is more nuanced, as she occasionally abstains from or opposes specific Republican-led omnibus energy packages, prioritizing local decision-making and fisheries protection [1]. Peltola describes her platform as "pro-fish and pro-jobs," emphasizing bipartisan collaboration to lower energy costs, strengthen the Permanent Fund, and create high-paying union jobs through natural resource development, balancing her pro-oil stance with a broader focus on Alaska-specific interests [1].
6. What evidence, such as incumbency advantage or historical voting patterns, supports the market pricing Sen. Dan Sullivan as the favorite despite polls showing a statistical tie?
| Mary Peltola Win Probability | 58% (September 9, 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan Win Probability | 42% (September 9, 2026) [1][2][3] |
| Peltola Polling Lead | 2.1% to 2.4% (early September 2026) [1][2][4][3] |
Current market and polling data contradict the premise of Senator Sullivan's favoritism. As of September 9, 2026, prediction market data and fundamental models indicate a 58% win probability for Mary Peltola, exceeding incumbent Dan Sullivan's 42% win probability in the 2026 Alaska US Senate election [1][2][3]. This current evidence directly contradicts the initial premise that markets favor Sullivan. Furthermore, polling data from early September 2026 shows Mary Peltola leading Dan Sullivan by margins of approximately 2.1% to 2.4% [1][2][4][3].
Alaska's political landscape and unique voting system add election complexity. Despite current market and polling data favoring Peltola, Alaska's political landscape has a traditional Republican lean, which significantly influences fundamental analyses [5]. Factors such as historical incumbency advantage, robust fundraising networks, and established name recognition for incumbents typically impact market pricing [5]. The state's unique ranked-choice voting system for the general election further complicates outcomes, as second and third choice preferences can alter final results [5]. Prediction markets often integrate a broader range of information beyond static poll results, including campaign dynamics and historical trends [6][7][8]. Forecasting models for this election combine these diverse elements, incorporating partisan baselines, incumbency, and polling data to generate their projections [1][2][3][5].
Sources (8)
- 12026 Alaska US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 22026 Alaska US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 32026 Alaska US Senate Forecastintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 4Election 2024 Senate Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
- 5United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Emotions and the status quo: The anti-incumbency bias in political...sciencedirect.com
- 7Election Prediction Marketspredictionmarkets.org
- 8[PDF] Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?*sites.temple.edu
7. How might the national political climate, particularly voter sentiment on President Trump's economic agenda, impact fundraising and turnout in the Alaska Senate race?
| Mary Peltola Fundraising | Over $18.5 million (as of late July 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan Fundraising | $11.7 million (as of late July 2026) [1][2] |
| Peltola Prediction Market Probability | 56% to 58% (as of September 2026) [3][4] |
Negative national economic sentiment and low presidential approval influence the Alaska Senate race. Voter sentiment regarding the national economic climate, coupled with negative views on national economic policies, appears to be impacting the race, as does President Trump's approximate 38% national approval rating and 60% national disapproval rating [3][5][6]. This environment is cited as a factor that could potentially lower Republican turnout or increase Democratic fundraising and enthusiasm in Alaska [3][5][6]. Debates within Alaska's political landscape also revolve substantially around President Trump's influence, particularly regarding his administration's economic and energy policies, which remain central points of contention [7][8].
Financial and predictive data highlight the Alaska Senate race's competitiveness. This traditionally Republican-leaning seat has become a highly competitive battleground, partly due to Democrat Mary Peltola's moderate profile and Alaska's ranked-choice voting system [3][5][6]. As of late July 2026, Peltola has outraised incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, having accumulated over $18.5 million compared to Sullivan's $11.7 million [1][2]. Furthermore, prediction markets as of September 2026 show Mary Peltola leading with a probability ranging from approximately 56% to 58%, with Decision Desk HQ forecasts also narrowly favoring her to win [3][4][9][1][2].
Sources (9)
- 12026 Alaska US Senate Forecastintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 22026 Alaska US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 3https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-winnerpolymarket.com
- 42026 Midterm Election Odds — House & Senate Predictionspredictmarketcap.com
- 5Peltola Turns Alaska into Senate Battleground as Governor Race Drives Prediction Market Activity - DeFi Ratedefirate.com
- 62026 Midterm Election Odds: House and Senate Marketsinsidepredictions.com
- 7Executive Order: Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential (Donald Trump, 2025) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 8Alaska Repeal Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 9United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
8. What do the latest FEC filings reveal about the fundraising totals, cash-on-hand, and donor bases for the Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola campaigns?
| Mary Peltola Total Receipts | $18.55 million [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Mary Peltola Cash on Hand | $4.64 million [1][2][3] |
| Dan Sullivan Total Receipts (Incumbent) | $11.19 million [4] |
Mary Peltola's campaign committee reported significant fundraising totals. Democratic challenger Mary Peltola's principal campaign committee accumulated approximately $18.55 million in total receipts and maintained $4.64 million in cash on hand. These figures cover the period from January 1, 2026, through July 29, 2026 [1][2][3]. Her fundraising strategy relies heavily on small-dollar individual donors; approximately 95% of her contributions in the first and second quarters of 2026 were $100 or less, drawing considerable interest from individuals residing outside Alaska [5][6].
Senator Dan Sullivan's committees hold substantial cash-on-hand. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan's principal campaign committee reported total receipts of approximately $11.19 million and held $2.26 million in cash on hand as of June 30, 2026 [4]. When considering all of Senator Sullivan's committees, his combined cash on hand totaled approximately $10 million as of the same date [7].
Sources (7)
- 1FEC Disclosure Form 3 for Alaskans for Marydocquery.fec.gov
- 2ALASKANS FOR MARY - committee overview | FECfec.gov
- 3PELTOLA, MARY - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
- 4FEC Disclosure Form 3 for ALASKANS FOR DAN SULLIVANdocquery.fec.gov
- 5Peltola outraises Sullivan, lags in cash on hand - Politicopolitico.com
- 6Peltola Campaign Reports Record $7 Million Second-Quarter...nativenewsonline.net
- 7Follow the Money: In Alaska, Sullivan Vs Peltola - Legis1legis1.com
9. What specific polling data and election model forecasts support the 'toss-up' classification for the Sullivan vs. Peltola race?
| Election Classification | Toss-up (The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Sabato's Crystal Ball) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Peltola Primary Vote Share | 49.5% (primary vote) [4][5][2] |
| Peltola Win Probability | 57% (Polymarket) [6] |
Major political analysis outlets classify the Alaska Senate race as a "toss-up." The 2026 Alaska Senate election between incumbent Dan Sullivan and challenger Mary Peltola is widely considered a "toss-up" by major political analysis outlets, including The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato's Crystal Ball [1][2][3]. This highly competitive classification is partly attributed to the inherent complexity of Alaska's ranked-choice voting (RCV) system, which introduces a notable degree of uncertainty into outcome modeling [4][5][2].
Polling data consistently indicates a very close contest between candidates. The close nature of the race is underscored by initial polling data, specifically from the state's all-party primary where Mary Peltola secured 49.5% of the vote, while Dan Sullivan received 41.4% [4][5][2]. Subsequent polls, such as one by Alaska Survey Research, have shown Peltola either leading or performing within the margin of error in simulated RCV matchups [7][2]. Aggregators like Dave Leip's Atlas further support this assessment, characterizing the race as a "tossup" with a three-poll rolling average indicating Democrats at 49% and Republicans at 46% [8]. Prediction markets also reflect the close competition, with Polymarket showing Peltola with approximately a 57% probability of winning against Sullivan's 42% [6].
Election model forecasts strongly reinforce the "Toss Up" designation. As of September 9, 2026, Decision Desk HQ categorizes the Alaska U.S. Senate race as a "Toss Up" [9][10][11]. Their model projects Mary Peltola with a 58% probability of victory against Dan Sullivan's 42%, forecasting a vote margin ranging from D+1 to D+2 [9][11].
Sources (11)
- 1United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Why MS NOW rates Alaska's Senate race a toss-upms.now
- 3United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 (August 18 top-four...ballotpedia.org
- 4Alaska Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Results - NBC Newsnbcnews.com
- 5Sullivan goes on attack in first post-primary faceoff for Alaska's U.S....alaskabeacon.com
- 6Alaska Senate Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 7Alaska Senate: Peltola 50.6%, Sullivan 49.4%: r/fivethirtyeight - Redditreddit.com
- 8Election 2024 Senate Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
- 92026 Alaska US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 102026 Alaska US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 112026 Alaska US Senate Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, featuring Democratic candidate Mary Peltola against three Republicans: incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and Gerald Heikes [1][2][3]. As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets and political forecasters show a competitive race, with Mary Peltola generally favored [4][2][5][6]. Kalshi gives the Democratic party a 64% win probability, and Decision Desk HQ projects a 58% win probability for Peltola [4][2][5][6]. Key financial data as of July 29, 2026, shows Mary Peltola having raised $18,545,132 and Dan Sullivan having raised $11,735,898 [4].
The election is conducted under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, a significant factor in a multi-candidate race [1][7]. The field was finalized after the August 18, 2026, primary, with David Leslie (D) withdrawing from the race on August 31, 2026, allowing Gerald Heikes to advance to the general election [1][7][3]. An unusual dynamic is the presence of two candidates named Dan Sullivan: the incumbent U.S. Senator Dan S. Sullivan and a challenger named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who unsuccessfully faced legal challenges to be removed from the ballot [1][8][3].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (8)
- 1The Alaska Senate race: 3 Republicans, 2 Dans Sullivan, 1 Democratnbcnews.com
- 2Mary Peltola’s Alaska Chances As Dem Drops Out, Race Moves To ‘Tilt D’ - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 3United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 42026 Alaska US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 5Alaska Senate winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
- 6https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-winnerpolymarket.com
- 7Sen. Sullivan, ex-congresswoman Peltola to face off for Alaska Senate seat | AP Newsapnews.com
- 8Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating Dan Sullivans in Alaska - Newsweeknewsweek.com
