Alaska Senate Election Winner
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Mary Peltola to win the Alaska Senate Election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Mary Peltola appears favored due to significant campaign fundraising and spending advantage.
- Dan Sullivan likely remains competitive given Alaska's ranked-choice voting system.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 57.0% | 50.9% | Mary Peltola benefits from incumbency, strong fundraising, and demonstrated cross-party appeal in prior elections. |
| Dan Sullivan | 42.0% | 48.8% | Dan Sullivan benefits from incumbency, strong Republican support in a conservative state, and an established campaign. |
| Ann Diener | 0.1% | 0.1% | Ann Diener appears to have no significant public profile or active campaign to date. |
| Richard Grayson | 0.1% | 0.1% | Richard Grayson appears to have no significant public profile or active campaign to date. |
| Dustin Darden | 0.1% | 0.1% | Dustin Darden appears to have no significant public profile or active campaign to date. |
Current Context
Alaska holds its U.S. Senate primary today, August 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The election features a crowded field of 16 candidates, including incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola [^][^][^][^][^]. Alaska uses a nonpartisan, all-party primary system where the top four vote-getters advance to the general election [^][^][^]. Official results from today's primary are currently being tabulated and are not yet finalized [^][^][^][^].
General election forecasts indicate a competitive race. The general election is set for November 3, 2026, and will employ ranked-choice voting [^][^][^]. As of August 17, 2026, predictive models from Decision Desk HQ suggest the general election is highly competitive, with Democrats narrowly favored to win at a 54% probability [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
To: Trading Desk
From: Quant Analysis
Re: Market Note - Alaska Senate Election Winner (will-dan-sullivan-win-the-alaska-senate-race-in-2026)
This contract has traded in a sideways pattern since its inception, holding a range between 48.5% and 57.5%. The market opened with a 56.0% probability for a "YES" outcome and currently sits at 57.0%. The most notable price movement is a recent increase to the top of its range, coinciding with the Alaska primary election on August 18. This price appreciation suggests the market is pricing in a higher probability of the incumbent's success following the primary event. The boundaries of the trading range, 48.5% and 57.5%, have acted as the effective support and resistance levels for this contract.
The most critical technical factor is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded throughout its history, the price action is not a reflection of participant activity or conviction. The price changes are attributable to the market's automated pricing mechanism, not to any capital being deployed. The price levels, including the current 57.0% probability, should be seen as indicative quotes rather than a consensus view formed by active trading.
The lack of volume indicates this market is dormant and illiquid. While the price implies a slight positive sentiment for the "YES" outcome, this reading is superficial. Without any trades to validate the price levels, the chart offers no meaningful insight into collective market expectation. The contract simply reflects its initial pricing with minor automated adjustments.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to 'Yes' for the candidate confirmed as the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, and 'No' for all other candidates. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Resolution relies on all three sources (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) calling the same candidate; otherwise, official certification determines the winner. If the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | $0.58 | $0.44 | 57% |
| Dan Sullivan | $0.43 | $0.58 | 42% |
| Ann Diener | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Dustin Darden | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Richard Grayson | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate A | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate B | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate C | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate D | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate E | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate F | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate G | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate H | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate I | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate J | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate K | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate L | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate M | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate N | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate O | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate P | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate Q | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate R | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate S | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate T | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate U | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate V | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Candidate W | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Other | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The market largely discusses the competitive dynamic between Mary Peltola and incumbent Dan Sullivan for the Alaska Senate seat, with traders currently favoring Peltola at 57%. Arguments for Peltola's victory center on her "S-tier appeal," strong name recognition, moderate stance, and potential advantages in ranked-choice voting, supported by recent polling showing a narrow lead. Despite some dissenting opinions, the market's consensus suggests a strong belief in Peltola's chances, citing her momentum from endorsements and grassroots efforts.
4. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Mary PeltolaPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Dan SullivanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Ann DienerTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Dustin DardenTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Richard GraysonTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate ATrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate BTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate CTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate DTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate ETrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate FTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate GTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate HTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate ITrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate JTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate KTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate LTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate NTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate OTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate PTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate QTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate RTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate STrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate TTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate UTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate VTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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Candidate WTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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OtherTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
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trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 18, 2026
5. What are the key campaign events and potential catalysts, such as debates or major endorsements, scheduled between the August primary and the November 3, 2026 general election?
| Primary Election Date | August 18, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| General Election Date | November 3, 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Campaign Finance Report Due | October 15, 2026 [^] |
The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska features a multi-stage election process. The election includes a nonpartisan primary on August 18, 2026, from which the top four vote-getters will advance to the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. For the general election, Alaska will employ ranked-choice voting, and voters will also consider a ballot measure proposing the repeal of this system [^].
A single campaign finance report filing is scheduled between the primary and general elections. The primary campaign event scheduled for this period is the filing of the October Quarterly campaign finance report by October 15, 2026 [^]. This report will detail financial activity conducted from July 30 to September 30, 2026 [^]. The provided research does not specify any scheduled debates or additional major endorsements occurring between the August 18, 2026 primary and the November 3, 2026 general election.
6. How do the final vote totals from the August 18, 2026 primary inform the strategic landscape and relative strengths of the four candidates advancing to the general election?
| Primary Election Date | August 18, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| General Election Date | November 3 [^][^] |
| Primary System | Top-four primary [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Alaska's primary results are delayed, preventing immediate strategic analysis. As of August 18, 2026, the official vote totals for the state's primary election have not been tabulated or released. This delay makes it impossible to assess the strategic landscape or relative strengths of the candidates based on final vote counts [^]. While preliminary results were expected later on August 18, the final unofficial tally is not anticipated until August 28, 2026 [^].
Alaska's unique election system advances four candidates to ranked-choice general. The 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election employs a top-four primary system, which means the four highest-polling candidates will advance to the November 3 general election [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The general election will then utilize ranked-choice voting, where a candidate must secure a simple majority (50% + 1) through potential elimination and reallocation rounds to win [^][^]. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and former Democratic U.S. Representative Mary Peltola are identified as the primary notable candidates within a crowded field of 16 participants [^][^].
7. How do the campaign fundraising totals and spending strategies of Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola compare for the 2026 election cycle?
| Mary Peltola Raised | $18.5 million (as of July 29, 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan Raised | $11.7 million (as of July 29, 2026) [^][^] |
| Dan Sullivan Cash-on-Hand | $7.3 million (as of July 29, 2026) [^][^] |
Peltola significantly outraised and outspent Sullivan in the 2026 U.S. Senate race. As of July 29, 2026, former Democratic U.S. Representative Mary Peltola has substantially outpaced incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan in fundraising for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, raising approximately $18.5 million compared to Sullivan's $11.7 million [^][^]. Peltola also outspent Sullivan, dedicating about $13.9 million to her campaign, while Sullivan spent approximately $5.2 million [^][^]. Despite being outraised and outspent, Sullivan maintains a larger cash-on-hand reserve of approximately $7.3 million, exceeding Peltola's $4.6 million [^][^]. Sullivan and Peltola are the primary contenders in the upcoming election [^][^][^][^][^].
Candidates employ contrasting strategies for campaign funding and resource allocation. Peltola's campaign heavily relies on small-dollar, grassroots donations, with most contributions averaging $50 or less, supported by a robust statewide volunteer network [^][^]. In contrast, Sullivan's strategy focuses on a consistent fundraising pace to accumulate a substantial cash reserve, which his campaign intends to deploy for sustained effectiveness throughout the general election [^][^].
8. What do historical turnout patterns and current voter registration data suggest about the likely composition of the November 2026 electorate in Alaska?
| Independent Voter Registration | 63.4% (as of August 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Republican Voter Registration | 23.2% (as of August 2026) [^] |
| Historical Midterm Turnout | 50.2% to 54.8% (2002-2022) [^][^][^] |
The 2026 Alaska electorate will likely be largely Independent. The November 2026 Alaska electorate is projected to be primarily composed of Independent voters, based on current voter registration data from August 2026. Independents represent the largest voting bloc, accounting for 63.4% of registered voters. Republicans constitute 23.2% and Democrats comprise 11.7% of registered voters, solidifying the Independent majority for the upcoming election [^].
Alaska's midterm voter turnout is historically moderate. Historically, midterm voter turnout in Alaska typically ranges from 50% to 56% of eligible voters [^][^]. More specifically, midterm election turnout between 2002 and 2022 varied from 50.2% to 54.8% of eligible voters [^][^][^]. While these rates are relatively high compared to national midterm averages, they are notably lower than the turnout observed during presidential election years [^][^][^][^][^].
9. What does public polling conducted after the August 18 primary indicate about voters' second-choice preferences under Alaska's ranked-choice system?
| Post-primary second-choice polling data | Not available [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary election date | August 18, 2026 (non-ranked) [^][^][^] |
| General election system | Ranked-choice voting (top four candidates) [^][^][^] |
Currently, no public polling data exists for post-primary second-choice preferences. There is currently no public polling data available from after the August 18, 2026, primary specifically detailing voter second-choice preferences for the general election [^][^]. In Alaska's election system, these second-choice preferences are only officially revealed during the ranked-choice tabulation process in the general election, which is activated if no candidate secures a majority of first-choice votes [^][^].
Alaska's primary election is not ranked and selects four finalists. Alaska's primary election, held on August 18, 2026, is a non-ranked system where voters cast a single vote for their preferred candidate [^][^][^]. The top four vote-getters from this primary then advance to the general election, which employs ranked-choice voting (RCV) [^][^][^]. Voters do not rank candidates in the primary; RCV is exclusively used in the general election to determine the winner among the four finalists [^][^].
Pre-primary polling suggested second-choice transfers could influence outcomes. Prior to the August 18, 2026, primary, polling indicated that in a hypothetical four-candidate general election scenario, minor-party and independent candidates were anticipated to influence the outcome through RCV second-choice transfers, although some ballots were predicted to exhaust [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election includes a nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, 2026, leading to a general election on November 3, 2026, which will utilize ranked-choice voting [^][^][^]. Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola are the major candidates among others, including Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (no relation) [^][^][^]. As of mid-August 2026, prediction markets indicate a close general election, with implied probabilities often showing Peltola and Sullivan in a tight, near-toss-up contest [^][^][^]. Decision Desk HQ, as of August 17, 2026, forecasts Democrats with a 54% probability to win, against 46% for Republicans [^].
Key catalysts for prediction market pricing include the outcome of the top-four primary, the impact of ranked-choice voting on final results, and the influence of 'spoiler' or same-name candidates, such as Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., appearing on the general election ballot [^][^][^]. Mary Peltola is a heavy favorite to advance through the primary, even as the general election race remains competitive [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: November 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 Alaska U.S.
- Trigger: Senate election includes a nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, 2026, leading to a general election on November 3, 2026, which will utilize ranked-choice voting [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Republican incumbent Senator Dan S.
- Trigger: Sullivan and Democratic former U.S.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
