Short Answer

The AP is expected to call the Alaska Senate election before November 26, 2026, though the November 18 ranked-choice voting tabulation will delay the announcement past election day; the market prices this at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

A federal judge's dismissal of a Department of Justice lawsuit on November 1 appears to have driven a significant price spike on November 5. The lawsuit had sought to block certification of the U.S. Senate race in Alaska. Its dismissal removed a key legal uncertainty, increasing the perceived probability of a timely election call.
That sentiment has since reversed. Initial election results show no candidate with the 50% first-choice vote required to win outright. As of November 10, Mary Peltola (D) leads Dan Sullivan (R) 49% to 47.2% with 84% of votes counted. This triggers a ranked-choice vote tabulation to determine the winner, a process which delays a final result. The market's current 11% probability reflects the expectation that the AP will not call the race until that tabulation is complete. Electoral mechanics are now the primary price driver, not legal challenges.
  • The AP call likely follows the November 18 RCV tabulation.
  • A 1.1% lead and 2022 precedent indicate a later AP call.
  • An early call is highly unlikely before November 18 RCV tabulation.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Nov 14 7.0% 4.8% An early call is unlikely given tabulation is scheduled for November 18, 2026.
Before Nov 18 45.0% 30.5% A call before November 18, 2026, is unlikely due to scheduled tabulation and current narrow lead.
Before Nov 19 96.0% 93.3% A call before November 19, 2026, is less likely due to 2022 call precedent after tabulation.
Before Nov 26 99.0% 98.3% The AP is likely to call after November 18, 2026, following ranked-choice tabulation and precedent.
Before Jan 4 96.0% 98.3% The AP is expected to call after November 18, 2026, following ranked-choice tabulation.

Current Context

Mary Peltola (D) leads the Alaska Senate race, favored to win. As of November 10, 2026, Peltola holds approximately 49% of the vote against Dan Sullivan's (R) 47.2%, a lead of roughly 2,500 votes with 84% of ballots counted [1][2]. No candidate has exceeded the 50% first-choice vote threshold required to win outright [3][4][5]. Prediction markets show high confidence in Peltola's victory, with Polymarket and Kalshi reporting 98-99% probability for Peltola versus 1-1.4% for Sullivan as of November 11, 2026 [6][7]. Peltola's campaign manager Cheryl Bruce expressed "exceptional confidence," stating "there is not a viable path to reelection for Senator Sullivan" [1]. The presence of a third candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who holds about 4,000 votes, further complicates the first-choice vote tally [8][9][10][11].
AP is likely to call the race after November 18. Alaska's ranked-choice voting tabulation is scheduled for November 18, 2026, which is the expected date for the AP call [3][4][5]. The Division of Elections requires all ballots to be counted by this date, including those from overseas voters accepted up to 15 days post-election, completing tabulations under the state's ranked-choice voting system [3][5][8][4]. Charles Stewart of MIT Election Lab, who has served on network decision desks, anticipates media organizations will remain conservative in calling the race, basing decisions on first-choice votes until the official tabulation on November 18 [1]. This aligns with the 2022 Alaska Senate race, which the AP called on November 23, following the completion of ranked-choice tabulation [12][13][14].
Prediction markets favor a late call; legal challenges persist. Kalshi prediction market odds indicate a 90% chance the AP will call the race before November 19, a 55% chance before November 18, and a 32% chance before November 14, 2026 [15]. The race also faces a legal challenge: President Trump ordered the Justice Department to sue to block certification if the incumbent loses. A federal judge dismissed the initial lawsuit, with the DOJ appealing [8][9][10][11]. The Division of Elections aims for certification by November 25, 2026 [3][5].
Sources (15)
  1. 1Peltola and JKT strengthen leads in latest Alaska election resultsalaskapublic.org
  2. 22026 Alaska Midterm Election Results | AP Newsapnews.com
  3. 3When will Alaska's US Senate race be called? Check the latest numbers | 10tv.com10tv.com
  4. 4Alaskans wait for more votes to come in for Senate, governor's races | AP Newsapnews.com
  5. 52026 Midterm Elections: Every Major Race — Political.orgpolitical.org
  6. 6Alaska Senate Election Winnerpolymarket.com
  7. 7Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  8. 8Sullivan, Peltola project confidence in Alaska US Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
  9. 96 takeaways from Alaska’s electionalaskapublic.org
  10. 10Alaska 2026 live midterm results: A long process to determine a Senate winner - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  11. 11Three Dan Sullivans Run For Alaska Senate Seat | Dissenterdissenter.com
  12. 12Murkowski, Peltola win re-election bids - Roll Callinkl.com
  13. 13Murkowski, Peltola win reelection bids - Roll Callrollcall.com
  14. 14GOP's Lisa Murkowski wins reelection in Alaska Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
  15. 15When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Before Nov 14

📉 November 11, 2026: 21.0pp drop

Price decreased from 32.0% to 11.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 21.0 percentage point drop was the official timeline for Alaska's ranked-choice voting (RCV) tabulation, making an AP call before November 14 highly improbable. Alaska's Division of Elections states that final RCV results "will not be available until November 18, 2026," because all eligible ballots, including overseas ones accepted up to 15 days post-election, must be reviewed and counted [1][2]. This official timeline, coupled with the closeness of the race [3] and the precedent of the 2022 Alaska Senate race not being called until November 23 after RCV tabulation [4][5], fundamentally constrained the possibility of an early call. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity or influence was identified in the provided information.

Outcome: Before Nov 19

📈 November 10, 2026: 74.0pp spike

Price increased from 16.0% to 90.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the price movement was the strengthening lead of Mary Peltola (D) in traditional news reports on November 10, 2026. News outlets announced that with 76% of votes counted, Peltola had solidified her lead, and the remaining 60,000-75,000 outstanding ballots were projected to favor her [6]. This increased clarity on the likely outcome ahead of the crucial November 18 ranked-choice tabulation likely boosted market confidence that the AP would call the race promptly after the tabulation, therefore before November 19 [7][2][8][6]. Social media activity from President Trump, demanding reallocation of votes for a 'fake Sullivan' candidate, appeared to be mostly noise, as such claims would more likely introduce legal uncertainty and delay a call rather than accelerate it [9][6][10].

📉 November 08, 2026: 17.0pp drop

Price decreased from 78.0% to 61.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the price drop was the official timeline established by the Alaska Division of Elections, which stated that ranked-choice election results would not be available until November 18, 2026 [7][11]. This crucial announcement, likely disseminated or reaffirmed on or before November 8, significantly reduced the perceived probability of the Associated Press (AP) calling the race "Before Nov 19." As the AP generally calls races only when the outcome is "unquestionable" [6], the unavailability of official ranked-choice tabulation until November 18 made an earlier call highly improbable. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant to this price movement.

Outcome: Before Nov 18

📈 November 09, 2026: 37.0pp spike

Price increased from 21.0% to 58.0%

What happened: The provided research offers no clear primary driver for the 37.0 percentage point spike on November 09, 2026, in the prediction market outcome "Before Nov 18" for the Alaska Senate election. There is no evidence of specific social media activity, key announcements, or market structure factors that would logically accelerate the Associated Press's call. In fact, Alaska's election timeline indicates ranked-choice voting results will not be available until November 18, 2026, due to ballot deadlines and tabulation processes [1]. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver, and no other catalyst was identified from the available information.

Outcome: Before Jan 4

📈 November 05, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 85.0% to 98.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the November 05, 2026, price spike was likely the federal judge's dismissal of a Department of Justice lawsuit on November 1, 2026, which had sought to block certification of Alaska's U.S. Senate race [12]. While the DOJ filed a notice of appeal, the initial dismissal likely reduced the perceived risk of prolonged legal challenges that could push the AP's final call past January 4, thereby increasing confidence in an earlier resolution [12]. This traditional news event appeared to lead the price movement. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified in the research.
Sources (12)
  1. 1Election - Division of Electionselections.alaska.gov
  2. 2Alaskans wait for more votes to come in for Senate, governor's races | AP Newsapnews.com
  3. 32026 Alaska Midterm Election Results | AP Newsapnews.com
  4. 4Here’s who won 2022’s most competitive Senate races - Roll Callrollcall.com
  5. 5Murkowski, Peltola win reelection bids - Roll Callrollcall.com
  6. 6Peltola and JKT strengthen leads in latest Alaska election resultsalaskapublic.org
  7. 7Called vs certified: what AP calls don't settle · The Whole Readthewholeread.com
  8. 8Sullivan, Peltola project confidence in Alaska US Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
  9. 9Frantic Trump, 80, Escalates Jaw-Dropping Alaska Midterms Election Demandthedailybeast.com
  10. 10Alaska voters react to allegations of a spoiler in the U.S. Senate race: NPRnpr.org
  11. 11Peltola’s lead over Sullivan grows, but Alaska’s Senate race is still tight - Anchorage Daily Newsadn.com
  12. 12Judge dismisses lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaska Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves based on when the Associated Press (AP) issues its first definitive call for the Alaska U.S. Senate election. A "Yes" contract for a specified date (e.g., "Before Nov 14") resolves positively if the AP makes this call prior to that date. Conversely, a "No" contract resolves positively if the AP call occurs on or after the specified date, with key resolution dates being November 14, November 18, and November 19 for different contracts.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Nov 14 $0.30 $0.94 7%
Before Nov 18 $0.63 $0.49 45%
Before Nov 19 $0.96 $0.73 96%
Before Nov 26 $1.00 $0.08 99%
Before Jan 4 $1.00 $0.03 96%

Market Discussion

Traders on Kalshi are actively discussing when the Associated Press will call the Alaska Senate election, with an overwhelming 96% probability that the call will be made before November 19th. While the probabilities for earlier calls (before November 14th and 18th) have notably decreased, the market maintains a strong consensus for the call to occur relatively soon. This sentiment is observed as 84.3% of the vote has been counted, showing a narrow lead for Democrat Mary Peltola (49.6%) over Republican Dan Sullivan (47.5%).

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 84 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score92Strong
Trade quality20% of score52Caution
Trust score84Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. What specific vote margin or ballot-counting scenario would trigger an AP call for either Peltola or Sullivan before the scheduled November 18 RCV tabulation?

Peltola Lead for Early AP CallApproximately 3 or more percentage points [1][2][3][4][5]
Scheduled RCV Tabulation DateNovember 18, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Sullivan 10+ Point Win Probability3.6% [2][4][5]
An early AP call depends on a decisive first-round vote margin. An Associated Press (AP) call for either Mary Peltola or Dan Sullivan would occur before the scheduled November 18, 2026, ranked-choice voting (RCV) tabulation if the first-round results on election night (November 3, 2026) demonstrate a margin so significant that no RCV preference transfers could mathematically alter the outcome [1][2][3][4][5].
Peltola needs a significant lead for an early victory declaration. The Associated Press is likely to call the Alaska Senate election for Mary Peltola before November 18 if her first-round lead on election night is approximately 3 or more percentage points [1][2][3][4][5]. This would be triggered if Peltola's first-round vote count lead over Dan Sullivan is larger than the combined vote totals of all eliminated candidates whose voters would predominantly transfer to Sullivan as their second choice in RCV, making it mathematically impossible for those transfers to close the gap [1][2][3][4][5]. Prediction markets indicate that a 3+ point lead for Peltola makes an early call probable, while a scenario where Sullivan wins by 10 or more points has only a 3.6% probability [2][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2US Elections Prediction Markets & Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
  3. 3Alaska Senate Race 2026: Kalshi Prices & Volumeticker-tracker.com
  4. 4Senate Odds on Kalshi Today: Who Will Control the Senate? (1478 Markets) | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
  5. 52026 US Midterms | Prediction Markets | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

7. How does the AP's call timeline for the 2022 Alaska Senate election serve as a precedent for the 2026 race, particularly in relation to the state's official RCV tabulation date?

2022 Election Voting SystemRanked-choice voting (RCV) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]
2026 Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]
Prediction Market ResolutionAP's first definitive call of a winner [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]
The 2022 Alaska Senate election used ranked-choice voting. Ranked-choice voting (RCV) significantly influences the timeline for both official election results and the Associated Press's (AP) declaration of a winner. The upcoming 2026 Alaska Senate election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and prediction markets related to this race will resolve based on when the AP makes its first definitive call of a winner [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10].
Insufficient data prevents comparing AP call timelines between elections. The available facts do not contain enough information to establish how the AP's call timeline for the 2022 Alaska Senate election could serve as a precedent for the 2026 race. Specifically, the research lacks the precise AP call timeline for the 2022 election and the state's official RCV tabulation dates for both the 2022 and 2026 elections. Without these critical details, a direct comparison regarding the impact of RCV on the AP's call timeline cannot be made [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2AP calls the Alaska Senate race by... Odds | Prediction Tickerpredictionticker.com
  3. 3When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  4. 4When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  5. 5When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6When will AP call the Alaska Senate election odds: Before Nov 26 97% on Kalshipredictdesks.com
  7. 7When will AP call the Alaska Senate election?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  8. 8When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  9. 9Alaska - BetCryptobetcrypto.now
  10. 10Alaska Senate Race 2026: Kalshi Prices & Volumeticker-tracker.com

8. How did the AP's 2022 Alaska Senate race call time compare to those of other major networks like CNN and NBC News?

2026 Alaska Senate Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]
Probability of AP call before November 1990% (as of November 10, 2026) [9]
Probability of AP call before November 1868% (as of November 10, 2026) [9]
No comparative data is available for the 2022 Alaska Senate race. The provided research does not contain information comparing the AP's call time for the 2022 Alaska Senate election to those of other major networks like CNN and NBC News. Instead, the focus is on the upcoming 2026 Alaska Senate election, which is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10].
Prediction markets are actively tracking the AP's 2026 election call. Platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Public.com are currently monitoring when the AP will make its first definitive call of the winner for the 2026 election [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. For the purposes of these markets, the AP's call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate has won, appearing on one of AP's primary platforms, and the phrase 'projected to win' alone is considered insufficient [2][4][5][9].
Kalshi traders predict the AP call will likely occur soon. As of November 10, 2026, Kalshi traders are pricing the probability of the AP calling the Alaska Senate election before November 19 at 90%. The probability of a call occurring before November 18 is 68%, and the likelihood of a call before November 14 is 64% [9].
Sources (10)
  1. 1When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3AP calls the Alaska Senate race by... Odds | Prediction Tickerpredictionticker.com
  4. 4When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  5. 5When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  6. 6When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? (Nov 3, 2026 election): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  7. 7Alaska Senate Race 2026: Kalshi Prices & Volumeticker-tracker.com
  8. 8When will AP call the Alaska Senate election odds: Before Nov 26 97% on Kalshipredictdesks.com
  9. 9When will AP call the Alaska Senate election?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  10. 10When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

9. What is the official schedule from the Alaska Division of Elections for releasing ballot count updates between Election Day on November 3 and the November 18 deadline?

Election Day Initial Unofficial ResultsNovember 3, after 9 pm [1][2][3]
Second Ballot CountNovember 10 (7 days after Election Day) [1][2][3]
Final Scheduled Update and Ranked Choice TabulationNovember 18 (15 days after Election Day) [1][2][3]
Alaska will release election ballot count updates from November 3 to 18. The Alaska Division of Elections has outlined its official schedule for releasing ballot count updates for the 2026 General Election, commencing on Election Day, November 3 [1][2][3]. Unofficial results are anticipated to be posted on Election Night, November 3, after 9 pm, following the count of polling place and early vote ballots [1][2][3]. Further ballot counts are scheduled for November 10, November 13, and November 18 [1][2][3].
Later updates include various ballots and critical deadlines. Seven days after Election Day, on November 10, the count includes absentee, early, and questioned ballots. Additionally, November 13, which is 10 days after Election Day, marks the deadline for receiving absentee ballots mailed from within the U.S. and includes a 10-day count [1][2][3].
The final update establishes deadlines and initiates ranked choice tabulation. The final scheduled update occurs on November 18, 15 days after Election Day [1][2][3]. This date serves as the deadline for receiving absentee ballots mailed from outside the U.S. and includes a 15-day count for overseas absentee ballots. During this update, races are reviewed to determine if any candidate has achieved 50%+1 vote [1][2][3]. If this threshold is not met, the process for ranked choice tabulation is initiated [1][2][3]. All absentee and questioned ballots must be counted no later than 15 days following the general election, and subsequent tabulation rounds are conducted by the Director's Office after this final count [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1MEDIA PACKETelections.alaska.gov
  2. 2MEDIA PACKETelections.alaska.gov
  3. 3Alaska’s Ballot Counting System - Division of Electionselections.alaska.gov

10. How might legal challenges, such as the lawsuit involving Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., impact the AP's call timeline relative to the state's vote counting process?

AP Call Before Nov 11 Probability1% (closing) [1][2]
AP Call Before Nov 14 Probability10% estimated [1][2]
Probability of 2 Ranked-Choice Rounds76-85% [3][4][5]
Legal challenges will likely delay the AP's Alaska Senate election call. Legal disputes, including allegations of a 'spoiler scheme' and an FBI subpoena, are anticipated to prolong the Alaska Senate election outcome and consequently delay the Associated Press (AP) call [1][2][6][7]. The AP's strict requirement for a definitive declaration without qualifiers means that such legal uncertainties will likely prompt them to await the full resolution of vote counting and any associated legal issues before making a call [1][2][6]. This expectation is underscored by prediction markets, where the 'Before Nov 11' contract closed at only 1% probability and the 'Before Nov 14' contract currently shows just a 10% estimated probability for an AP call [1][2].
Ranked-choice voting adds complexity, further delaying the AP's final declaration. Alaska's utilization of ranked-choice voting inherently extends the timeline required to determine a winner through multiple tabulation rounds [3][4][5]. Prediction markets indicate a high probability for such extended processes, with 2 rounds showing a 76-85% probability and 3 rounds showing a 67% probability [3][4][5]. This multi-round system, coupled with a close race (Mary Peltola at 49.6% and Dan Sullivan at 47.5% as of November 10, 2026) and the ongoing legal disputes, increases the likelihood that the AP will wait for the entire vote counting process, including all ranked-choice rounds, to conclude before making a definitive announcement [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2When will AP call the Alaska Senate election?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  3. 3Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  4. 4Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  5. 5Alaska - BetCryptobetcrypto.now
  6. 6When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? (Nov 3, 2026 election): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  8. 8When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  9. 9Alaska Senate Race 2026: Kalshi Prices & Volumeticker-tracker.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Alaska Senate election's resolution hinges on ranked-choice voting mechanics and specific deadlines. Alaska's system mandates November 18 for final ballot receipt from overseas voters, at which point ranked-choice tabulation is set to begin if no candidate surpasses 50% of first-choice votes [1][2][3]. The Alaska Division of Elections targets November 25 for result certification [1][2]. Historically, the AP called the 2022 Alaska Senate race on November 23, 15 days after Election Day, following full ranked-choice tabulation [4][5][6][7]. The AP's Decision Team will delay calling the race until it determines with certainty that the trailing candidate cannot close the gap, factoring in outstanding ballots, ranked-choice mechanics, and potential legal challenges [8][9].
As of November 10, 2026, Mary Peltola holds a narrow lead over Dan Sullivan by approximately 2,500 votes, with 76% of votes counted [1][10]. Peltola has secured 106,321 votes (48.6%), while Sullivan has 103,804 votes (47.5%) [1][10]. Prediction markets currently price Peltola at 98-99% probability to win the Alaska Senate seat, with Kalshi showing 98.5%, Polymarket 99%, and Vantage Predictions 98% [11][12][2]. However, the Justice Department has appealed a federal judge's November 1, 2026 dismissal of a lawsuit seeking to block certification if Sullivan loses, introducing legal uncertainty into the process [13][14]. Kalshi market analysis indicates a 90% probability the AP will call the election before November 19, 2026, with a 55% probability before November 18 and 32% before November 14 [15].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 03, 2026
  • Expiration: November 18, 2026
  • Closes: January 04, 2027
Sources (15)
  1. 1When will Alaska's US Senate race be called? See the latest numbers | krem.comkrem.com
  2. 2Alaska Senate Race 2026: Odds, Candidates and Key Datesvantagepredictions.com
  3. 3When will Mississippi and Alaska Senate elections be called?usatoday.com
  4. 4Murkowski, Peltola win re-election bids - Roll Callinkl.com
  5. 5Murkowski, Peltola win reelection bids - Roll Callrollcall.com
  6. 6GOP's Lisa Murkowski wins reelection in Alaska Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
  7. 7Here’s who won 2022’s most competitive Senate races - Roll Callrollcall.com
  8. 8How the AP calls elections and why it matters | AP Newsapnews.com
  9. 9Peltola and JKT strengthen leads in latest Alaska election resultsalaskapublic.org
  10. 102026 Alaska Midterm Election Results | AP Newsapnews.com
  11. 11Alaska Senate Election Winnerpolymarket.com
  12. 12Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  13. 13Sullivan, Peltola project confidence in Alaska US Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
  14. 14Alaska Senate race odds: Peltola at 72% on Kalshi as judge rejects Trump lawsuitnews.kalshi.com
  15. 15When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXAPCALLAKSEN-26NOV04-NOV111200A: NO (Nov 11, 2026)