When will AP call the Alaska Senate election
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- The AP call likely follows the November 18 RCV tabulation.
- A 1.1% lead and 2022 precedent indicate a later AP call.
- An early call is highly unlikely before November 18 RCV tabulation.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 14 | 7.0% | 4.8% | An early call is unlikely given tabulation is scheduled for November 18, 2026. |
| Before Nov 18 | 45.0% | 30.5% | A call before November 18, 2026, is unlikely due to scheduled tabulation and current narrow lead. |
| Before Nov 19 | 96.0% | 93.3% | A call before November 19, 2026, is less likely due to 2022 call precedent after tabulation. |
| Before Nov 26 | 99.0% | 98.3% | The AP is likely to call after November 18, 2026, following ranked-choice tabulation and precedent. |
| Before Jan 4 | 96.0% | 98.3% | The AP is expected to call after November 18, 2026, following ranked-choice tabulation. |
Current Context
Sources (15)
- 1Peltola and JKT strengthen leads in latest Alaska election resultsalaskapublic.org
- 22026 Alaska Midterm Election Results | AP Newsapnews.com
- 3When will Alaska's US Senate race be called? Check the latest numbers | 10tv.com10tv.com
- 4Alaskans wait for more votes to come in for Senate, governor's races | AP Newsapnews.com
- 52026 Midterm Elections: Every Major Race — Political.orgpolitical.org
- 6Alaska Senate Election Winnerpolymarket.com
- 7Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 8Sullivan, Peltola project confidence in Alaska US Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
- 96 takeaways from Alaska’s electionalaskapublic.org
- 10Alaska 2026 live midterm results: A long process to determine a Senate winner - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 11Three Dan Sullivans Run For Alaska Senate Seat | Dissenterdissenter.com
- 12Murkowski, Peltola win re-election bids - Roll Callinkl.com
- 13Murkowski, Peltola win reelection bids - Roll Callrollcall.com
- 14GOP's Lisa Murkowski wins reelection in Alaska Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
- 15When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before Nov 14
📉 November 11, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 32.0% to 11.0%
Outcome: Before Nov 19
📈 November 10, 2026: 74.0pp spike
Price increased from 16.0% to 90.0%
📉 November 08, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 61.0%
Outcome: Before Nov 18
📈 November 09, 2026: 37.0pp spike
Price increased from 21.0% to 58.0%
Outcome: Before Jan 4
📈 November 05, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 85.0% to 98.0%
Sources (12)
- 1Election - Division of Electionselections.alaska.gov
- 2Alaskans wait for more votes to come in for Senate, governor's races | AP Newsapnews.com
- 32026 Alaska Midterm Election Results | AP Newsapnews.com
- 4Here’s who won 2022’s most competitive Senate races - Roll Callrollcall.com
- 5Murkowski, Peltola win reelection bids - Roll Callrollcall.com
- 6Peltola and JKT strengthen leads in latest Alaska election resultsalaskapublic.org
- 7Called vs certified: what AP calls don't settle · The Whole Readthewholeread.com
- 8Sullivan, Peltola project confidence in Alaska US Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
- 9Frantic Trump, 80, Escalates Jaw-Dropping Alaska Midterms Election Demandthedailybeast.com
- 10Alaska voters react to allegations of a spoiler in the U.S. Senate race: NPRnpr.org
- 11Peltola’s lead over Sullivan grows, but Alaska’s Senate race is still tight - Anchorage Daily Newsadn.com
- 12Judge dismisses lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaska Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves based on when the Associated Press (AP) issues its first definitive call for the Alaska U.S. Senate election. A "Yes" contract for a specified date (e.g., "Before Nov 14") resolves positively if the AP makes this call prior to that date. Conversely, a "No" contract resolves positively if the AP call occurs on or after the specified date, with key resolution dates being November 14, November 18, and November 19 for different contracts.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 14 | $0.30 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Before Nov 18 | $0.63 | $0.49 | 45% |
| Before Nov 19 | $0.96 | $0.73 | 96% |
| Before Nov 26 | $1.00 | $0.08 | 99% |
| Before Jan 4 | $1.00 | $0.03 | 96% |
Market Discussion
Traders on Kalshi are actively discussing when the Associated Press will call the Alaska Senate election, with an overwhelming 96% probability that the call will be made before November 19th. While the probabilities for earlier calls (before November 14th and 18th) have notably decreased, the market maintains a strong consensus for the call to occur relatively soon. This sentiment is observed as 84.3% of the vote has been counted, showing a narrow lead for Democrat Mary Peltola (49.6%) over Republican Dan Sullivan (47.5%).
5. Trust Index
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What specific vote margin or ballot-counting scenario would trigger an AP call for either Peltola or Sullivan before the scheduled November 18 RCV tabulation?
| Peltola Lead for Early AP Call | Approximately 3 or more percentage points [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Scheduled RCV Tabulation Date | November 18, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5] |
| Sullivan 10+ Point Win Probability | 3.6% [2][4][5] |
Sources (5)
- 1When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2US Elections Prediction Markets & Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Alaska Senate Race 2026: Kalshi Prices & Volumeticker-tracker.com
- 4Senate Odds on Kalshi Today: Who Will Control the Senate? (1478 Markets) | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
- 52026 US Midterms | Prediction Markets | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
7. How does the AP's call timeline for the 2022 Alaska Senate election serve as a precedent for the 2026 race, particularly in relation to the state's official RCV tabulation date?
| 2022 Election Voting System | Ranked-choice voting (RCV) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Election Date | November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
| Prediction Market Resolution | AP's first definitive call of a winner [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
Sources (10)
- 1When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2AP calls the Alaska Senate race by... Odds | Prediction Tickerpredictionticker.com
- 3When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 4When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 5When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6When will AP call the Alaska Senate election odds: Before Nov 26 97% on Kalshipredictdesks.com
- 7When will AP call the Alaska Senate election?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
- 8When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 9Alaska - BetCryptobetcrypto.now
- 10Alaska Senate Race 2026: Kalshi Prices & Volumeticker-tracker.com
8. How did the AP's 2022 Alaska Senate race call time compare to those of other major networks like CNN and NBC News?
| 2026 Alaska Senate Election Date | November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
|---|---|
| Probability of AP call before November 19 | 90% (as of November 10, 2026) [9] |
| Probability of AP call before November 18 | 68% (as of November 10, 2026) [9] |
Sources (10)
- 1When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3AP calls the Alaska Senate race by... Odds | Prediction Tickerpredictionticker.com
- 4When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 5When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 6When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? (Nov 3, 2026 election): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 7Alaska Senate Race 2026: Kalshi Prices & Volumeticker-tracker.com
- 8When will AP call the Alaska Senate election odds: Before Nov 26 97% on Kalshipredictdesks.com
- 9When will AP call the Alaska Senate election?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
- 10When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
9. What is the official schedule from the Alaska Division of Elections for releasing ballot count updates between Election Day on November 3 and the November 18 deadline?
| Election Day Initial Unofficial Results | November 3, after 9 pm [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Second Ballot Count | November 10 (7 days after Election Day) [1][2][3] |
| Final Scheduled Update and Ranked Choice Tabulation | November 18 (15 days after Election Day) [1][2][3] |
10. How might legal challenges, such as the lawsuit involving Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., impact the AP's call timeline relative to the state's vote counting process?
| AP Call Before Nov 11 Probability | 1% (closing) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| AP Call Before Nov 14 Probability | 10% estimated [1][2] |
| Probability of 2 Ranked-Choice Rounds | 76-85% [3][4][5] |
Sources (9)
- 1When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2When will AP call the Alaska Senate election?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
- 3Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 4Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 5Alaska - BetCryptobetcrypto.now
- 6When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? (Nov 3, 2026 election): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 8When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 9Alaska Senate Race 2026: Kalshi Prices & Volumeticker-tracker.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 03, 2026
- Expiration: November 18, 2026
- Closes: January 04, 2027
Sources (15)
- 1When will Alaska's US Senate race be called? See the latest numbers | krem.comkrem.com
- 2Alaska Senate Race 2026: Odds, Candidates and Key Datesvantagepredictions.com
- 3When will Mississippi and Alaska Senate elections be called?usatoday.com
- 4Murkowski, Peltola win re-election bids - Roll Callinkl.com
- 5Murkowski, Peltola win reelection bids - Roll Callrollcall.com
- 6GOP's Lisa Murkowski wins reelection in Alaska Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
- 7Here’s who won 2022’s most competitive Senate races - Roll Callrollcall.com
- 8How the AP calls elections and why it matters | AP Newsapnews.com
- 9Peltola and JKT strengthen leads in latest Alaska election resultsalaskapublic.org
- 102026 Alaska Midterm Election Results | AP Newsapnews.com
- 11Alaska Senate Election Winnerpolymarket.com
- 12Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 13Sullivan, Peltola project confidence in Alaska US Senate race | AP Newsapnews.com
- 14Alaska Senate race odds: Peltola at 72% on Kalshi as judge rejects Trump lawsuitnews.kalshi.com
- 15When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAPCALLAKSEN-26NOV04-NOV111200A: NO (Nov 11, 2026)