Who will the next Pope be?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds to Pietro Parolin as the most likely next Pope before 2070, with a 22.3% model probability versus the market's 9.0%, driven by its assessment of his relative strength as a long-term candidate.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market displays a distinct sideways trading pattern, with prices moving within an extremely narrow channel. The probability has remained consistently within a 3-point range, from a low of 4.0% to a high of 7.0%. The chart shows the price began at 7.0% and is currently at the same level, indicating no net change over the observed period. The most significant price movement was a brief dip to 4.0% around March 22, 2026, which quickly recovered to 7.0% within a few days. The provided context, which confirms Pope Leo XIV was recently elected in 2025 and is actively leading the Church, explains the overall price stability. However, there is no specific information that would account for the short-lived drop, suggesting it may have been caused by a single low-volume trade rather than a reaction to a specific news event.
The trading volume for this market is exceptionally low, with a total of only 1,738 contracts traded across 108 data points. This lack of volume indicates very low liquidity and a general absence of market conviction or speculative interest. In such an environment, even small trades can cause noticeable price swings, as likely seen with the dip to 4.0%. The price action has established a clear support level at 4.0% and a resistance level at 7.0%. Overall, the chart suggests that market sentiment is stable and reflects the current reality. The consistent, low probability of around 7% aligns with the understanding that a papal conclave is not expected in the near future, given the current Pope's active status and the market's resolution date far off in 2070. The market is effectively dormant, pricing in the status quo.
- Pope Leo XIV, 70, is healthy; successor highly likely before 2070.
- Cardinal Parolin holds highest Curia office, a strong traditional front-runner.
- Cardinal Arborelius' cross-aisle appeal makes him a compelling compromise candidate.
- African and Asian bishops prioritize decentralization and synodality.
- Pope Leo XIV's death or resignation would be key market catalysts.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 8.2% | 22.3% | His powerful position as Vatican Secretary of State makes him a leading curial choice. |
| Peter Erdo | 3.0% | 11.2% | His strong theological and canonical background makes him a prominent European candidate. |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | 4.0% | 13.0% | His significant role as Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem highlights his global leadership experience. |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 5.0% | 14.7% | His pastoral experience and popularity in Asia position him as a strong contender. |
| Fridolin Ambongo | 3.0% | 11.2% | As an influential African cardinal, he represents the church's growth in the global south. |
Current Context
Pope Leo XIV currently leads the Catholic Church after his 2025 election. Cardinal Robert Prevost was elected as Pope Leo XIV on May 8, 2025, succeeding Pope Francis following his death [1], [2]. The election process, which saw the new Pope assume his position, reportedly involved a dramatic conclave battle [1], [3].
No immediate papal conclave is anticipated due to the Pope's active leadership. There is no conclave scheduled before 2070, as Pope Leo XIV is actively engaged in leading the Church. His current agenda includes significant events like the closing of the 2026 Jubilee and ongoing general audiences [4].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Luis Antonio Tagle becomes the first person elected Pope before January 1, 2070, verified by major news sources such as The New York Times, Reuters, and The Washington Post; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on July 18, 2025, and will close early if the event occurs, or by January 1, 2070, at 10:00 AM EST, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. This outcome is mutually exclusive within the series for the next Pope.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | $0.08 | $0.95 | 8% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | $0.07 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Matteo Zuppi | $0.07 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | $0.07 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Anders Arborelius | $0.05 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Fridolin Ambongo | $0.06 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Peter Erdo | $0.05 | $0.97 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Traders are primarily focused on the unusually long timeframe of this prediction market, which could extend until 2070, questioning both the practicalities of waiting for a payout and the platform's longevity. While there are no specific "Yes" arguments for any particular candidate, "No" arguments center on the extreme duration of the bet and one commenter even suggests there won't be another Pope at all. The consensus highlights the significant patience required from participants.
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score33High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score73Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. Has Pope Leo XIV Appointed New Cardinals Yet?
| New Cardinal Appointments | None held as of March 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Consistory Purpose | Consultative, not for new cardinals (January 2026, planned June 2026) [1] |
| Pope Leo XIV Profile | Bridges North and South American influence; moderate, synodal, missionary profile [2] |
As of March 2026, Pope Leo XIV has not appointed new cardinals. Since his election in May 2025, Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost) has not held any consistories for the creation of new cardinals [1]. Consequently, no specific theological or geographical voting blocs have been strengthened within the College of Cardinals by new appointments under his pontificate. The gatherings he has convened, such as an extraordinary consistory in January 2026 and another planned for June 2026, have been consultative, intended for discussion rather than the creation of new cardinals [1]. Therefore, the current composition of the College of Cardinals largely reflects those appointed by his predecessor, Pope Francis.
No voting bloc shifts are evident under Pope Leo XIV's papacy. Given the absence of new cardinal appointments, there is no evidence to suggest any shift in alignment towards known frontrunners like Pietro Parolin, associated with the Italian establishment, or Luis Antonio Tagle, representing Asian growth factions. Pope Leo XIV himself is described as bridging Catholicism's geographic divide, with his background connecting North and South America (US-Peru) [2]. His pontificate is characterized by a moderate, synodal, and missionary profile, continuing the direction established by Pope Francis [2]. His own election reportedly saw support from an Americas bloc, rather than the Italian or Asian factions [2].
6. What is Pope Leo XIV's Current Health and Activity Level?
| Age | 70 years old [1] |
|---|---|
| Health Status | Robust health, no signs of declining health (Web Research Results) [1] |
| Next Conclave Projection | Unlikely before the 2030s (Web Research Results) [1] |
Pope Leo XIV, age 70, exhibits robust health and maintains a demanding schedule. Currently 70 years old [1], he shows no quantitative or qualitative indicators of declining health and maintains robust health consistent with his pre-papacy fitness routine. He moved into the renovated papal apartment within the Apostolic Palace on March 14, 2026 [2], and sustains a demanding schedule, which includes regular weekly general audiences. The Holy See Press Office has not reported any unscheduled absences from major liturgical events or shortened public addresses.
His rigorous 2026 travel schedule demonstrates significant physical activity and strong leadership capacity. His official itinerary for that year includes a visit to Monaco on March 28, followed by an 11-day Africa tour from April 13 to April 23 encompassing four countries. He also undertook an apostolic journey to Spain from June 6 to June 12, alongside numerous visits across Italy throughout July [3]. This consistent pattern of public engagement and international travel, combined with the absence of health-related disruptions, indicates his sustained leadership.
Current health and activity suggest a conclave is unlikely before 2030s. Based on this comprehensive analysis of Pope Leo XIV's health and demanding public schedule, the next conclave is projected as unlikely to occur before the 2030s.
7. How significant is Cardinal Parolin's administrative power in the Roman Curia?
| Current Office | Secretary of State [1] |
|---|---|
| Office Significance | Highest office in the Roman Curia [2] |
| Additional Role | Confirmed member of the Dicastery for Bishops [3] |
Cardinal Pietro Parolin holds the highest administrative power among the 'papabili'. His current position as Secretary of State is recognized as the most significant administrative role within the Roman Curia [1]. This office entrusts him with critical responsibilities, including assisting the Pope in governing the universal Church, managing the Holy See's diplomatic affairs, and coordinating various other dicasteries [2]. Under Pope Leo XIV, Cardinal Parolin's tenure in this crucial leadership role is anticipated to extend beyond 2025 [4].
Parolin's ongoing appointments surpass other 'papabili' in administrative influence. In addition to his leadership as Secretary of State, Cardinal Parolin serves as a confirmed member of the Dicastery for Bishops, a key body that assists the Pope in the appointment of bishops [3]. While other 'papabili', such as Cardinal Prevost, have been prominent candidates and notably held the position of former Prefect for Bishops [5], research indicates that Cardinal Parolin maintains the highest ongoing Curial role. No other cardinal among the 'papabili' mentioned in the provided sources holds an equivalent or higher ongoing appointment as Prefect or Secretary of a major dicastery, underscoring his significant accumulation of administrative influence [2].
Sources (5)
- 1Pietro Parolinen.wikipedia.org
- 2Cardinal Secretary of Stateen.wikipedia.org
- 3Pope confirms 30 members of Dicastery for Bishops - The Catholic Thingthecatholicthing.org
- 4Resignations and Appointmentspress.vatican.va
- 5Papabile of the Day: Cardinal Prevost could be first 'superpower' pope for USthecatholicherald.com
8. Which Cardinals Show Strongest Cross-Aisle Appeal for Papal Conclave?
| Arborelius Cross-Aisle Appeal | Most significant among lesser-known candidates (Web Research Results) [1] |
|---|---|
| Ambongo Cross-Aisle Appeal | Does not show comparable cross-faction praise (Web Research Results) [1] |
| Arborelius Ideology | Blends traditional moral views with progressive stances (1, 2) [1] |
Cardinal Anders Arborelius exhibits significant cross-aisle appeal among lesser-known candidates. The Archbishop of Stockholm is described as ideologically enigmatic, successfully blending traditional moral views with progressive stances on various issues such as ecumenism, immigration, climate change, and synodality [1]. This unique ideological flexibility allows him to bridge gaps between cardinals, earning him recognition as a "bridge-builder" with moderate-progressive views and an openness to dialogue, positioning him as a potential compromise candidate in a deadlocked conclave [1].
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo lacks comparable cross-factional praise or appeal. Despite his close ties to Pope Francis and his role in the Council of Cardinals (C9), Cardinal Ambongo Besungu, Archbishop of Kinshasa, is generally perceived as staunchly conservative [Web Research Results, 4, 6]. While he is a strong voice for the African church and outspoken on social justice, the available research indicates he lacks the broad, cross-factional appeal that Arborelius has garnered as a potential compromise figure [6, Web Research Results].
9. What Mandate Do African And Asian Bishops Seek For The Next Pope?
| Key Mandate | Decentralization via robust synodality (since 2025) [1] |
|---|---|
| Core Synodal Elements | Listening, participation, consensus-building, local adaptation [1] |
| Preferred Pope Profile | Proven promoter/implementer of synodality from Africa or Asia [Web Research Results] [1] |
African and Asian conferences prioritize decentralization and synodality since 2025. Regional episcopal conferences, specifically the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar (SECAM) and the Federation of Asian Bishops' Conferences (FABC), have consistently advocated for a 'mandate for change' rooted in decentralization and the robust implementation of synodality. Their official communiques stress the importance of listening, participation, consensus-building, and local adaptation to diverse cultural contexts [1]. This commitment is evident in initiatives such as a 2025 report on the pastoral challenge of polygamy in Africa and efforts in Asia to deepen synodality, building on a 2024 statement that celebrated synodality and indigenous living traditions [1]. Furthermore, SECAM's active promotion of the Synod's implementation phase highlights a dedication to enhanced regional collaboration and subsidiary authority [2].
Conferences do not prioritize financial or progressive social reforms. Research indicates a lack of significant pressure for financial reform or new progressive stances on social issues, such as LGBTQ+ rights. Instead, the focus remains on developing contextual pastoral approaches within established doctrinal frameworks and empowering local churches through strengthened synodal structures [1]. This clear preference for decentralization and local adaptation strongly suggests a desire for a future Pope who is a proven promoter and implementer of synodality, potentially from Africa or Asia. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, who serves as SECAM president and a synod promoter, is cited as an example of a candidate who aligns with this emergent mandate [Web Research Results].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
As of March 25, 2026, Pope Leo XIV (Robert Francis Prevost) is the sitting Pontiff, having been elected on May 8, 2025, following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025 [1]. Currently, there are no active prediction markets for a papal successor prior to 2070, as Pope Leo XIV remains in office and no new conclave is scheduled. Official Vatican communications for 2026 confirm his continued tenure [1].
Key catalysts that could lead to the emergence of successor prediction markets would include the death or resignation of Pope Leo XIV [1]. Such an event would necessitate the scheduling of a new papal conclave, thereby creating an identifiable event for which successor markets could be established [1].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2070
- Closes: January 01, 2070
