Short Answer

Montana's US Senate race will have the smallest margin of victory, with reported election results indicating a 10.6-point margin compared to New Jersey's 27-point difference; the market prices this outcome at 95.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's most significant movement was its resolution following the November 3 election. The contract for the New Jersey race being closer collapsed by 81 percentage points on November 4, falling from a high of 87% to 6%. This was a direct result of official vote counts. The Montana Senate race was decided by a 10.6-point margin, whereas the New Jersey contest had a much wider 27-point spread. News organizations called the New Jersey race just one minute after polls closed, while the Montana call came hours later as the closer vote was tallied.

An earlier price spike on October 28 was driven by polling data. The release of a Concord Public Opinion Partners poll showing a tight one-point difference in the Montana race (Bodnar 39%, Alme 38%) coincided with a 9.0 percentage point jump, from 73% to 82%, in the probability of Montana having the tighter margin. This poll was an outlier and suggested a more competitive contest in Montana than other data had indicated.

Montana's reported 10.6-point margin was significantly narrower than New Jersey's.
New Jersey's US Senate race saw a much wider 27-point victory.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Montana US Senate	95.0%	99.0%	Montana's reported margin of victory was approximately 10.6 percentage points, substantially narrower than New Jersey's.
New Jersey US Senate	9.0%	1.0%	New Jersey's US Senate race concluded with a reported approximately 27-percentage-point margin of victory.

Current Context

Montana's Senate race was definitively closer than New Jersey's. The Montana contest's margin of victory was approximately 10.6 percentage points, with Republican Kurt Alme securing 48.3% of the vote against independent Seth Bodnar's 37.7% ^[1]. New Jersey's race, in contrast, saw Senator Cory Booker defeat Murphy by roughly 27 percentage points, 62.24% to 35.18% ^[2]. The Associated Press called the Montana race at 12:54 a.m. on November 4, with 78% of votes counted ^[3]. The New Jersey race was called just one minute after polls closed at 8 p.m. on November 3 ^[4]. Prediction markets supported this, with Kalshi and Public.com showing 95-99% probability for Montana being the closer race by November 4-6, 2026, while Polymarket indicated 78% by November 6, 2026 ^[5]^[6]^[7]. The resolution criteria defined 'margin of victory' as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates ^[6]^[7].

Montana's outcome was shaped by a multi-candidate field. The race was a four-way contest where independent Seth Bodnar, backed by former Senator Jon Tester, finished second with 37.7%, splitting the anti-Alme vote with Democrat Alani Bankhead, who received 12.1% ^[3]^[8]^[9]^[10]. This marked Montana's first open Senate race since 1976, as incumbent Senator Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed Alme minutes before the March 4, 2026 filing deadline ^[3]^[10]^[11]^[12]. Bodnar's campaign spent $4.3 million, exceeding Alme's $2.4 million and Bankhead's $167,745, yet he lost by 10.6 points, reflecting the vote division ^[8]^[9]. Pre-election polling in Montana showed Alme leading by 6-20 points, though one poll (Concord Public Opinion Partners, Oct 22-23) showed Bodnar ahead by one point ^[13]^[14]^[15]. Republicans ultimately held the Montana seat ^[16].

New Jersey's Senate contest was a decisive incumbent victory. Senator Cory Booker secured his third full Senate term, extending a 54-year streak of Democratic wins in New Jersey U.S. Senate races ^[17]. His campaign raised $35 million, substantially more than his opponent Murphy's $75,000 ^[4]^[18]. No general-election polls of the likely nominees were conducted for New Jersey; forecasts relied solely on fundamental metrics, indicating a Democratic lead of 25 points ^[19]^[20]. New Jersey remained a Democratic Senate seat in the 2026 midterms ^[16].

Sources (20)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: New Jersey US Senate

📉 November 05, 2026: 81.0pp drop

Price decreased from 90.0% to 9.0%

What happened: The 81.0 percentage point drop for "New Jersey US Senate" as the closer race was primarily driven by the official election results confirming the Montana Senate race was significantly narrower. Traditional news outlets, including AP, called the decisive New Jersey Senate race on November 3, 2026, with an approximately 27.2 percentage point margin, and the closer Montana Senate race early on November 4, 2026, with a 10.6 percentage point margin ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. The market moved on November 5, 2026, reflecting the fact that Montana was indeed the closer race ^[6]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant for this specific price adjustment, which was a direct reaction to confirmed election outcomes.

📈 November 03, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 10.0% to 19.0%

What happened: No primary driver for a 9.0 percentage point spike in the "New Jersey US Senate" outcome (indicating New Jersey as the closer race) on November 03, 2026, could be identified from the provided information. Instead, the dramatic market repricing on November 03-04, 2026, was driven by traditional news reports clarifying election results ^[7]. Specifically, New Jersey's Senate race was called early for Cory Booker with a wide margin of 27.0-27.2 percentage points ^[5], while Montana's race, involving an independent candidate, proved much closer at 10.6 percentage points ^[1]. This led to the probability of New Jersey being the closer race dropping by 82 percentage points, directly contradicting a spike ^[7]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant.

Outcome: Montana US Senate

📉 November 04, 2026: 81.0pp drop

Price decreased from 87.0% to 6.0%

What happened: The 81.0 percentage point drop occurred for the "New Jersey US Senate" outcome, not "Montana US Senate," as the market resolved on November 04, 2026, dropping from approximately 87-88% to 6-9% ^[8]^[7]^[9]. The primary driver was the official reporting of election results and associated calls by news agencies, which confirmed Montana's significantly narrower margin of victory (10.6 percentage points) compared to New Jersey's (27.1-27.2 percentage points) ^[2]^[10]^[11]^[12]. The AP called the New Jersey race with a large margin for Booker on November 3 ^[13], followed by the Montana race call for Alme with a tighter margin on November 4 ^[14]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver or contributing factor.

📈 October 28, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 73.0% to 82.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike on October 28, 2026, was the release of a Concord Public Opinion Partners poll that day, which showed Montana's Senate race with a one-point difference (Seth Bodnar 39%, Kurt Alme 38%) ^[15]^[16]^[17]^[18]. This poll was a significant outlier, contrasting with other surveys that predicted Alme leading by 8-16 points, making the race appear much closer ^[15]^[16]. This news catalyzed the prediction market, making Montana seem more likely to be the "Closer Senate Race" compared to New Jersey, where Cory Booker held a substantial lead ^[16]^[19]. Social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement.

Sources (19)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The provided content does not explicitly define the specific conditions that trigger a YES or NO resolution for the "Montana US Senate" contract. The key deadline is the maximum payout date of November 10, 2026. No special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided text.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Montana US Senate	$0.99	$0.67	95%
New Jersey US Senate	$0.12	$1.00	9%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets resolved that Montana would be the closer Senate race, with final odds on one market showing 94-97% for Montana and 3-6% for New Jersey as of November 6, 2026 ^[1]. Montana's margin of victory was approximately 10.6 percentage points, significantly narrower than New Jersey's 27.2 percentage points ^[2]. This was anticipated in pre-election polling, which projected Montana as a much tighter contest, partly due to a four-way race splitting the vote, whereas New Jersey models projected a wider win for the incumbent ^[3].

Sources (3)

5. Trust Index

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score86Strong

Trade quality20% of score49High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score79Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. How Did Cory Booker's 2026 Fundraising Compare to the Combined War Chests in Montana's Open Senate Race?

Cory Booker Cash on Hand	$22.9 million (as of October 14, 2026 reporting) ^[1]
Cory Booker Total Raised	$35.4 million (2025-2026 cycle) ^[1]
Seth Bodnar Q3 Fundraising	$1.4 million (between July 1 and September 30, 2026) ^[2]

Cory Booker significantly outraised Montana's open Senate race candidates combined. New Jersey Senator Cory Booker's fundraising for his 2026 reelection campaign showed a substantial lead over the collective financial resources of candidates in Montana's open Senate race. Booker reported between $22.6 million and $22.9 million in cash on hand ^[1]^[3], a figure that was approximately 10 to 20 times greater than the combined war chests of all Montana Senate candidates, whose funds were in the low millions range ^[1]^[3]^[4]^[2].

Booker demonstrated a vast fundraising advantage over his specific challenger. For the 2025-2026 cycle, Cory Booker accumulated approximately $35.4 million in total contributions, with $22.9 million available as cash on hand as of October 14, 2026 ^[1]. In contrast, his Republican challenger, Justin Murphy, raised only about $75,205 during the same cycle, concluding Q3 2026 with $9,578 in cash on hand. This resulted in a fundraising gap of approximately 50:1 in the most recent quarter ^[1]. Meanwhile, in Montana, independent Seth Bodnar, who led fundraising for most of that election cycle, added $1.4 million to his campaign's war chest between July 1 and September 30, 2026 ^[2].

Sources (4)

7. What Did Historical Election Data Since 2000 Suggest for a 2026 Democratic Margin of Victory in a New Jersey Senate Race?

Predicted Democratic Win Probability	98% ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
Expected Democratic Margin	15-21+ points ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
2020 NJ Presidential Election Margin	D+15.6 ^[7]^[8]^[4]

New Jersey's historical election data consistently favors Democratic candidates. Since 2000, New Jersey Senate elections have consistently shown large Democratic margins, positioning incumbent Democrat Cory Booker as a strong favorite for the 2026 Senate race ^[7]^[8]^[4]. This pattern is further supported by the state's presidential election results, which recorded a Democratic margin of 15.6 points in 2020 and 2.8 points in 2024 ^[7]^[8]^[4].

Prediction markets strongly project a high Democratic victory probability. For the 2026 New Jersey Senate race, these markets reflect the historical trends by projecting a 98% probability of a Democratic win ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. They anticipate Democratic margins ranging from 15 to over 21 points ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. More specifically, predictions show an 81% chance of a Democratic margin of 21% or more, a 17% chance of a 15-18% margin, and a 7% chance of a 12-15% margin ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6].

Sources (8)

8. What Late-Breaking Endorsements or Events Could Have Shifted Support Between Kurt Alme and Seth Bodnar in October 2026?

Kurt Alme Election Vote Share	47-48% ^[1]^[2]
Seth Bodnar Election Vote Share	38-39% ^[1]^[2]
Pete Buttigieg Endorsement for Bodnar	October 23, 2026 ^[3]

Seth Bodnar experienced a late surge in support fueled by key endorsements in the October 2026 Montana Senate race. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar received a significant endorsement from Pete Buttigieg on October 23, 2026 ^[3], following the October 12, 2026 resignation and endorsement by Montana Democratic Party Chair Shannon O'Brien ^[4]. Bodnar also garnered cross-party backing from figures such as former RNC Chair Marc Racicot and Democratic former U.S. Senator Max Baucus ^[4]^[5]. During the sole all-candidate debate on October 11, 2026, Bodnar accused opponent Kurt Alme of being involved in a plot with incumbent Senator Steve Daines ^[4]. NBC Montana reported a notable increase in Bodnar's support late in the campaign, attributing it to his cross-party endorsements and anti-partisan message ^[6].

Kurt Alme secured a key endorsement amidst other campaign dynamics that influenced the race's outcome. Alme received a significant endorsement from President Trump, who held a rally in Kalispell, Montana, on October 14, 2026 ^[2]. Other contributing factors included the cancellation of a second debate ^[7] and internal Democratic Party conflict over whether candidate Alani Bankhead should withdraw to consolidate the anti-Alme vote, which caused uncertainty through Election Day ^[7]^[3]^[1]. Despite Bodnar's late surge, election-night results showed Kurt Alme winning the race with 47-48% of the vote, while Seth Bodnar received 38-39% ^[1]^[2].

Sources (7)

9. Are There Any Head-to-Head General Election Polls for the 2026 New Jersey Senate Race Between Cory Booker and Christine Serrano Murphy?

Republican Nominee 2026	Justin Murphy (facing Cory Booker) ^[1]^[2]
Prediction Market Indication	New Jersey models project larger Democratic margins exceeding 15 points ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
Polymarket Dem Victory Probability	98% for 'Democrat 21%+' ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]

Christine Serrano Murphy is not a candidate in the 2026 New Jersey Senate general election. She previously ran in the 2024 Republican primary, finishing second ^[1]^[2]. The Republican nominee for the 2026 New Jersey Senate race is Justin Murphy, who secured his primary victory on June 2, 2026, and will challenge incumbent Democrat Cory Booker. Booker ran unopposed in his primary ^[1]^[2].

No direct head-to-head general election polls were found between Cory Booker and Justin Murphy. Despite the absence of specific polling data, various prediction markets offer insights into the projected outcome ^[3]. These models indicate that New Jersey models project larger Democratic margins, exceeding 15 points ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. Specifically, Polymarket's New Jersey Senate Margin of Victory market shows a 98% probability for a 'Democrat 21%+' victory ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6].

Race ratings consistently favor the Democratic candidate as of late October 2026. Assessments for the 2026 New Jersey Senate race are consistently Democratic. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the contest as 'Solid Democratic', while Decision Desk and Sabato's Crystal Ball assess it as 'Safe Democratic', as of October 27, 2026 ^[2].

Sources (6)

10. How Did the Open-Seat Dynamic in Montana Contrast with Cory Booker's Incumbency Advantage in New Jersey for the 2026 Midterms?

New Jersey Senate Race Margin	approximately 26.8 points ^[1]
Montana Independent Voters	42% ^[2]
Cory Booker's Vote Share (New Jersey)	62.1% ^[1]

The 2026 midterm elections strikingly contrasted Montana’s open Senate seat with New Jersey’s incumbent race. Montana ultimately proved to be the significantly closer contest, a distinction affirmed by prediction markets ^[3]^[4]. This closer outcome in Montana was largely attributed to its three-way split in the vote, which resulted in a smaller margin of victory, unlike New Jersey's more traditional two-party dynamic ^[3]^[4].

Montana's open Senate seat presented a highly competitive, multi-candidate election. This was Montana's first open Senate seat since 2014, featuring Republican Kurt Alme, Democrat Alani Bankhead, and Independent Seth Bodnar ^[5]. The state's unusually high 42% of independent voters contributed to Bodnar’s viable candidacy ^[6]^[2]. This dynamic led to a split in the Democratic-leaning vote, with Bodnar receiving 49% and Bankhead 43%, allowing Alme to secure victory with just over 40% of the vote by a narrow margin ^[5]^[6]^[2]. This occurred despite pre-election polls indicating a 10-12 point lead for Alme and calls for one of the other candidates to withdraw ^[5]^[7]^[8].

In New Jersey, incumbent Cory Booker secured a decisive and overwhelming reelection victory. He garnered 62.1% of the vote against Justin Murphy's 35.3%, resulting in an approximate 26.8-point margin ^[1]. Booker’s substantial incumbency advantage was evident through his significant fundraising lead, out-raising Murphy $35 million to $75,000, in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 1972 ^[9]^[10]. His resounding win has positioned him as a potential contender for the 2028 presidential election ^[1].

Sources (10)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The market for 'Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?' priced Montana at 94-95% by November 6, 2026, across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms ^[1]^[2]. This pricing reflected Montana's narrower 10.6 percentage point margin of victory (Alme 48.3% vs. Bodnar 37.7%) compared to New Jersey's approximately 27.1-point margin (Booker 62.2% vs. Murphy 35.1%) ^[3]^[4]^[5]. Montana's three-way race, featuring Alme (R) at 48.3%, Bodnar (I) at 37.7%, and Bankhead (D) at 12.1%, contributed to a tighter top-two outcome, despite Montana's R+9.8 lean and Trump +19.9 in 2024 ^[3]^[6]^[7].

The significant fundraising disparity in New Jersey contributed to the wide margin; Cory Booker raised $18.87M and held $23.06M cash on hand, while Justin Murphy raised $27.3K with $123 cash on hand ^[8]^[9]. In Montana, independent Seth Bodnar spent approximately $4.3 million compared to Kurt Alme's $2.4 million, yet lost by 10.6 points, which demonstrated the impact of vote-splitting in a three-candidate race ^[10]. While Montana was deemed closer in this specific head-to-head market, the broader Polymarket 'Closest Senate Race?' market indicated Mississippi as the tightest overall at 95.4%, placing Montana at 1% and New Jersey below 1% ^[11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: November 10, 2026
Closes: November 10, 2026

Sources (11)

12. Keep Exploring

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map. More Senate markets See more senate setups in the same theme. Browse all Elections markets Keep exploring adjacent elections markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

13. Related News

-81.0pp Published: November 6, 2026

Last updated: November 6, 2026, 12:23 UTC

Montana Election Result Drives 'Closer Race' Market to 95% Certainty

Reported results from the November 3, 2026, midterm elections have effectively settled a prediction market contract asking whether the U.S. Senate race in Montana or New Jersey would be closer. In the...

Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: New Jersey US Senate

📉 November 05, 2026: 81.0pp drop

📈 November 03, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Outcome: Montana US Senate

📉 November 04, 2026: 81.0pp drop

📈 October 28, 2026: 9.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. How Did Cory Booker's 2026 Fundraising Compare to the Combined War Chests in Montana's Open Senate Race?

7. What Did Historical Election Data Since 2000 Suggest for a 2026 Democratic Margin of Victory in a New Jersey Senate Race?

8. What Late-Breaking Endorsements or Events Could Have Shifted Support Between Kurt Alme and Seth Bodnar in October 2026?

9. Are There Any Head-to-Head General Election Polls for the 2026 New Jersey Senate Race Between Cory Booker and Christine Serrano Murphy?

10. How Did the Open-Seat Dynamic in Montana Contrast with Cory Booker's Incumbency Advantage in New Jersey for the 2026 Midterms?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Related News

Montana Election Result Drives 'Closer Race' Market to 95% Certainty

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: New Jersey US Senate

📉 November 05, 2026: 81.0pp drop

📈 November 03, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Outcome: Montana US Senate

📉 November 04, 2026: 81.0pp drop

📈 October 28, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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Montana Election Result Drives 'Closer Race' Market to 95% Certainty

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company