Closest Senate race in 2026
Short Answer
Kansas is not expected to have the smallest margin of victory in the 2026 United States Senate elections, despite its D+0.7 polling average, with the market pricing this outcome at 15.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market’s sideways price action reflects sustained competition from other states, particularly Iowa, for the "closest race" designation. Polling averages from multiple sources show both races as toss-ups. The DeLuca tracker places the Kansas margin at D+0.7, while PollingForecast puts Iowa at R+0.6. The slight price decline for the Kansas contract from 17% to 15% does not coincide with a specific reported event, but rather the market's ongoing assessment of a very tight field of contenders.
Pricing across different venues corroborates this dynamic. On October 27, Kalshi data identified Iowa as the most divided race, likely placing a ceiling on the Kansas contract's probability. Polymarket pricing on October 30 shows Kansas as the narrow favorite at 15-16%, with Iowa just behind at 14-15%. The market is pricing a near-tie between the two states, resulting in range-bound trading instead of a clear directional trend for Kansas.
- Since last update (~184d): Headline model and market probabilities rose +13.4pp; Kansas and seven new outcomes were added.
- Georgia's model probability fell -13.2pp (model_led), with the edge compressing against the market.
- Iowa's model probability rose +7.6pp (model_led), widening the edge over the market.
- Confidence score decreased -1.0pp, while Texas saw a market_led drop of -10.5pp.
- Kansas and Iowa have sub-1-point polling averages, leading Polymarket for the closest race. Texas shows a statistical tie in recent polls, with reported 0-2 point margins.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 15.0% | 15.2% | Kansas leads prediction market pricing for the closest race and has a tight polling average. |
| Texas | 9.5% | 9.4% | Recent polling indicates a statistical tie in Texas, which Cook rates as a Toss-up. |
| Michigan | 8.7% | 7.5% | Michigan is rated a Toss-up by Cook, indicating a competitive race. |
| Iowa | 14.0% | 16.1% | Iowa's polling average shows a very tight margin, and it is a leading contender in prediction markets. |
| Alaska | 7.9% | 5.9% | Alaska is rated a Toss-up by Cook Political Report. |
Current Context
Kansas currently leads prediction markets for the closest 2026 Senate race. As of October 30, 2026, Kansas holds a 15-16% probability on Polymarket, slightly ahead of Iowa at 14-15%. The contract defines "closest" as the smallest absolute winner-runner-up vote-share margin, closing November 4, 2026 [1][2]. Polling averages also reflect tight contests: the DeLuca tracker shows Kansas at D+0.7, effectively tied [3], while Iowa is R+0.6, essentially tied, in PollingForecast [4]. Kalshi pricing on October 27 identified Iowa as the most divided race at approximately 58% Republican, with Maine around 60% Democratic [5]. The 2026 Senate election takes place on November 3, 2026, with 33 regular Class II contests plus special elections in Florida and Ohio [6][7]. Winners begin six-year terms on January 3, 2027 [6][7][8].
A core group of states defines the competitive Senate battleground. Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas as Toss-ups [9]. Minnesota and New Hampshire are Lean Democratic, South Carolina Lean Republican, and Nebraska and Mississippi are Likely Republican [9]. Sabato’s Crystal Ball highlighted Maine and Texas as especially significant races for determining majority control [10]. Expert consensus, including analyses from Reuters, Sabato’s, The New York Times, and Kalshi, centers on Kansas, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and Maine as pivotal states, with Alaska and Michigan remaining consequential [5][10][11][12]. Chris Cillizza noted an Iowa Democratic win could expand potential gains to 54-55 seats, while an Iowa win for the opposing party could cap Democratic gains at 51-52 seats [5].
Late polling snapshots indicate a fluid competitive top tier. Forbes data from October 29-30, 2026, shows specific race polls: Kansas (Hamilton 49%–Marshall 45%), Iowa (Hinson 48%–46%), Texas (Talarico 49%–Paxton 43%), Maine (Jackson 49%–Collins 45%), and Ohio (Brown 47%–Husted 44%) [13]. Kalshi’s October 27 commentary labeled Iowa the Senate linchpin and Texas its most-traded Senate market [5]. Overall control pricing on prediction markets favored Democrats at approximately 67-68% in late October snapshots, though individual race prices remained tight [2][14][15]. The Polymarket closest-race contract includes all November regular and special contests, resolving based on the decisive round where applicable [1].
Sources (15)
- 1Closest Senate Race?polymarket.com
- 2Senate Prediction Markets & Live Odds 2026polymarket.com
- 3Senate races · Election Forecast Trackerkevinmdeluca.com
- 42026 battleground: the closest races and the latest pollspollingforecast.com
- 5Cillizza's midterm metrics: The Senate odds, 7 days outnews.kalshi.com
- 62026 United States Senate electionsen.wikipedia.org
- 7United States Senate elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 8U.S. Senate Elections: 2026 Ballot & Results for Every Cycle Since 1990senatordb.com
- 92026 CPR Senate Race ratings | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
- 102026 Senate Archives - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
- 11Tracking Competitive Races in the House and Senatenytimes.com
- 12The races that will decide control of the US Senatereuters.com
- 13Latest Polls In 2026 Midterms: Democrats Lead In Texas...forbes.com
- 142026 Midterm Election Predictions & Odds: Live Senate, House & Governor Forecasts | Kalshikalshi.com
- 152026 Senate Races: All 35 Seats, Market by Marketpredictionmarketspicks.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content does not detail the specific criteria that define the "closest Senate race" for a YES resolution, nor the conditions for a NO resolution. Each market (e.g., Kansas, Iowa, Texas) would resolve YES if its respective Senate race is determined to be the closest, and NO otherwise. The latest date for market resolution and payout is January 2, 2027. No special settlement conditions are outlined in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Iowa | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Texas | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Maine | $0.09 | $0.91 | 9% |
| Michigan | $0.09 | $0.92 | 9% |
| Ohio | $0.07 | $0.93 | 8% |
| South Carolina | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Alaska | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Nebraska | $0.07 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Florida | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Mississippi | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Montana | $0.04 | $0.99 | 3% |
| New Hampshire | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Minnesota | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Arkansas | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Idaho | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Louisiana | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| South Dakota | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Georgia | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| North Carolina | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of October 30, 2026, prediction markets indicate a photo finish between Kansas and Iowa for the closest Senate race [1][2][3][4]. While Kansas leads Polymarket at 15% to Iowa's 14%, Kalshi's data, including an October 27 snapshot, shows these states essentially tied [1][2][3][4]. Substantive analysis from sources like Sabato’s Crystal Ball also identifies both Iowa and Kansas as Toss-up races with basically tied polling, with Texas and Maine frequently cited as other competitive battlegrounds [4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1Closest Senate Race?polymarket.com
- 2Senate Elections Prediction Markets & Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi Odds: Iowa 16% | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
- 4Cillizza's midterm metrics: The Senate odds, 7 days outnews.kalshi.com
- 5Closer Senate Race: Iowa or Maine?polymarket.com
- 6The Six Senate Races That Will Decide the Majoritynase.org
- 7Five Senate Rating Changes as Close Battle for Majority Control Rages - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
- 8Competitive 2026 Senate Races & Battlegrounds | Nijinnmidterms.nijinn.io
4. Trust Index
Largest single print on KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MS carried 56% of its $10,136 tape (window is 69% of 24h flow)
Integrity risk· Large trades
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score90Strong
Trade quality20% of score83Good
Trust score88Strong
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What polling data and expert ratings from Q3-Q4 2026 support the consensus that Kansas and Iowa are the top contenders for the closest race?
| Kansas Poll Margin | 1.4 points (Hamilton 46.7% vs Marshall 45.3%) [1] |
|---|---|
| Iowa Poll Margin | 0.6 points (Hinson 45.8% vs Turek 45.2%) [2] |
| Expert Rating Q4 2026 | Iowa and Kansas rated Toss Up (Cook Political Report, October 20) [3] |
Polling data and expert ratings from Q3–Q4 2026 consistently identify Kansas and Iowa as the top contenders for the closest Senate race. Research output during this period consistently supported both contests as plausible answers for the smallest absolute first-versus-second-place vote gap, based on exceptionally tight polling margins in late October. Expert ratings also reinforced this consensus, consistently labeling both races as top-tier toss-ups [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Recent polling shows exceptionally narrow margins in both Kansas and Iowa. As of October 29, an 18-poll average in Kansas indicated a 1.4-point margin, with Hamilton at 46.7% and Marshall at 45.3% [1]. Iowa's five-poll average was even narrower, showing a 0.6-point margin, with Hinson at 45.8% and Turek at 45.2% [2]. These exceptionally close margins are within ordinary polling error, making either state a strong candidate for the smallest certified margin [1][2][7]. Expert assessments, such as Cook Political Report's "Toss Up" rating for both states on October 20, further underscore their competitive nature [3]. Kansas, in particular, saw a significant shift towards competitiveness during Q3–Q4, moving from Lean Republican to Toss Up by October 13 according to Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball [4].
Prediction markets independently support the Kansas–Iowa consensus for a close race. This evidence aligns with the focus on the smallest absolute vote gap, rather than solely the likelihood of a party control change [5][6]. A Kalshi snapshot on October 27 priced Iowa at 16% and Kansas at 15%, with another late-October feed showing Kansas at 16% and Iowa at 15%, positioning both states ahead of other contenders like Texas [6][8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Kansas Senate Polls 2026: Marshall vs Hamiltonpollcheck.co.uk
- 22026 Polls: Iowa Senate270towin.com
- 32026 CPR Senate Race ratingscookpolitical.com
- 4United States Senate election in Kansas, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 5November 3, 2026: Closest Senate race in 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 6Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi Odds: Iowa 16% | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
- 72026 Senate Battleground Polls: Midterm Primary Trendsnbcnews.com
- 8Closest Senate race in 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 9Closest Senate race in 2026 odds: Iowa 16% on Kalshipredictdesks.com
6. How do the campaign finance landscapes in the Texas and Ohio Senate races compare for the 2026 cycle, particularly regarding outside spending and grassroots fundraising?
| Texas Talarico Q3 Fundraising | $64 million with 97% under $100 (Q3 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Texas Pro-Paxton Outside Spending | Over $175 million after September 1 [4] |
| Ohio Late-October Ad Spending Total | About $496 million [5][6] |
The 2026 Senate races in Texas and Ohio display distinct campaign finance landscapes. While both races are expensive and considered plausible close-race candidates, Texas features strong Democratic grassroots fundraising alongside a significant, single billionaire-backed outside spending effort supporting Republicans [4][1][2][7][8][5]. In contrast, Ohio also shows broad Democratic grassroots support but is characterized by a more conventionally structured, two-sided national-party spending contest [7][8][9][5].
Texas's Senate race features asymmetric fundraising and concentrated outside spending. Democrat James Talarico reported substantial grassroots fundraising, including $64 million in the third quarter of 2026 and over $134 million for the cycle [1][2][3]. A remarkable 97% of his third-quarter contributions were under $100, originating from more than 1.3 million donors [1][2][3]. Republican Ken Paxton's campaign and affiliated committees reported $18 million in the same quarter [1][2][3]. Outside spending in Texas is notably concentrated and vast, with Republican groups spending over $175 million supporting Paxton or opposing Talarico after September 1. This includes a reported $158 million transfer from Elon Musk, channeled through the Senate Leadership Fund to a Paxton-supporting Texas PAC [4]. By late October, total ad spending for the Texas race reached approximately $398 million [5][6].
Ohio's race shows a large outside spending advantage for Republicans. However, its direct fundraising gap between candidates is less asymmetric than in Texas [7][8][9][5]. Democrat Sherrod Brown raised $23.1 million in the third quarter, attracting nearly 200,000 donors with an average contribution of $40, while Republican Jon Husted raised $4.8 million [7][8][9][5]. Ohio's outside spending was reported at $350 million by October 15, with Republicans holding a $105 million lead, and total projected spending for the race could reach $749 million by Election Day [7][8][9]. Late-October ad-spending totals for Ohio were approximately $496 million [5][6]. In the "Closest Senate race in 2026?" Kalshi market, late-October snapshots indicated Texas was materially above Ohio, with Texas at approximately 10%–12% and Ohio at 7%–8% [10][11][12].
Sources (12)
- 1James Talarico says raised Q3 record $64 million in Texas...cnbc.com
- 2James Talarico raises record $64 million in third quartertexastribune.org
- 3Democrat James Talarico targets Elon Musk at rallytheguardian.com
- 4Republicans bet Musk's millions can rescue Texas' Paxton...reuters.com
- 5Breaking Down Ad Spending for the 2026 Electionsnytimes.com
- 6The races that will decide control of the US Senatereuters.com
- 7Brown outraises Husted as outside groups enter Ohio's...ohiocapitaljournal.com
- 8Brown outraises Husted in final fundraising reportsspectrumnews1.com
- 9The Money Race Shaping Ohio's 2026 Senate Electionlegis1.com
- 10Closest Senate race in 2026? — Before Ja… — Odds & Prediction | Predictions.iopredictions.io
- 11Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi Odds: Iowa 16% | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
- 12Closest Senate race in 2026 | Kalshi Odds | EVDESKevdesk.ai
7. What potential 'October surprise' scenarios or national political shifts could most significantly tighten the vote margins in key states like Maine and Michigan before the November 2026 election?
| Maine Senate Race Poll (Jackson vs. Collins) | Jackson 49%, Collins 45% (October 30, 2026 polls) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Michigan Race Poll (El-Sayed vs. Rogers) | El-Sayed 49%, Rogers 42% (October 30, 2026 polls) [1][2][5] |
| Potential October Surprise Impact | Could disrupt late-stage polling and momentum, impacting vote margins [6] |
Potential "October surprises" significantly disrupt late-stage election dynamics. These scenarios typically involve explosive reports of campaign misconduct or criminal investigations, identified as a significant factor that could disrupt late-stage polling and momentum leading up to the November 2026 election. Such events are capable of impacting vote margins in key states, including Maine and Michigan [6].
Maine and Michigan Senate races show narrow leads or toss-up conditions. As of October 30, 2026, the Maine Senate race between Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is categorized as a toss-up, with recent polls indicating leads within the margin of error, such as Jackson 49% to Collins 45% or 49% to 47% [1][2][3][4]. In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has shown a lead over Republican former Representative Mike Rogers in recent polls, with figures like 49% to 42% or 50% to 48% [1][2][5]. Such late-breaking developments from an "October surprise" could significantly tighten vote margins, especially in Michigan where one candidate currently holds a lead, or further influence the already very close race in Maine [6][1][2][3][4][5]. The available information does not include details on potential national political shifts that might tighten vote margins in these specific states.
Sources (6)
- 1Latest Polls In 2026 Midterms: Democrats Lead In Texas...forbes.com
- 2CNN poll shows Democrats leading in Michigan and Texas...foxnews.com
- 3Jackson, Collins separated by 2 points in Maine Senate...thehill.com
- 4Democrats in striking distance: New CNN polls in four...keyt.com
- 5Latest Polls In 2026 Midterms: Democrats Lead In...forbes.com
- 6Pre-Election Analysis for the 2026 Midtermsfiscalnote.com
8. Beyond polling, what do prediction market odds on Kalshi and other platforms suggest about the relative closeness of the races in Texas versus Alaska as of late October 2026?
| Probability Difference | Texas favored by 3-5 percentage points for narrowest race [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Odds (Oct 29) | Texas about 10%, Alaska about 7% [1] |
| Polymarket Odds | Texas 11.5%-12%, Alaska 6.3%-7% [2][4][5] |
Prediction markets from late October 2026 indicated Texas was more likely than Alaska to have the closest Senate race in 2026 [1][6][7][2][4][5]. This suggested a modest advantage for Texas, with market probabilities for it being the narrowest race generally 3–5 percentage points higher than for Alaska [1][2][3][4].
Multiple platforms consistently showed Texas with a higher probability than Alaska. Kalshi's "Closest Senate race in 2026?" market on October 29 showed Texas at approximately 10% compared to Alaska's approximately 7% [1]. Earlier snapshots from October 28 and 27 similarly favored Texas, with percentages around 12% versus Alaska's 6.9% [6][7]. Polymarket-related data consistently placed Texas between 11.5% and 12% while Alaska ranged from 6.3% to 7%, with one display showing Texas at 10% and Alaska at 7% [2][4][5].
While competitive, both states were secondary contenders for the overall closest race. Alaska was not uncompetitive, but the cross-platform signal consistently suggested it was less likely than Texas to produce the single narrowest Senate margin [3]. It is important to note that these prices measure the chance of having the smallest final margin, not the expected margin itself. Both Texas and Alaska remained secondary contenders behind states like Iowa or Kansas for the overall closest race [1][2][3][4].
Sources (7)
- 1Closest Senate race in 2026 | Kalshi Odds | EVDESKevdesk.ai
- 2Closest Senate race in 2026? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Polynode Exploreexplore.polynode.dev
- 4Closest Senate Race? — Polymarket odds | Polymtradepolym.trade
- 5Closest Senate Race? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 6Closest Senate race in 2026? — live odds on Kalshi · OddsOnAiroddsonair.live
- 7Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi Odds: Iowa 16% | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
9. How do the state-specific laws for vote counting, certification deadlines, and automatic recounts in Georgia and North Carolina compare, and how might they impact the final certified margin in a razor-thin race?
| Georgia Recount Threshold | 0.5% or less (candidate-triggered) [1] |
|---|---|
| North Carolina Recount Threshold | Lesser of 0.5% or 10,000 votes (candidate-triggered) [2] |
| Georgia Statewide Certification | 17 days after the election [3] |
Georgia and North Carolina have different vote certification and recount rules. Their differing state laws for vote counting, certification deadlines, and automatic recounts create distinct timelines for finalizing election results, especially in close U.S. Senate races. Both states rely on candidate-triggered recounts for these federal contests, meaning that unofficial Election Night margins may not represent the final certified outcome due to outstanding ballots, canvass corrections, and potential recounts [3][2][4].
Georgia's certification process is quicker with a 0.5% recount threshold. In Georgia, county superintendents must certify consolidated returns by 5:00 p.m. on the Monday following Election Day, with a subsequent statewide certification due 17 days post-election [5][3]. Federal races no longer qualify for an automatic recount; however, a candidate can request a recount if the margin is 0.5% or less. This request typically occurs within two business days after county certification, and the recount process has the potential to alter the certified result before the statewide certification [1][3].
North Carolina has a later certification and a more restrictive recount threshold. North Carolina's State Board convenes to certify results no later than 10 days after the Tuesday three weeks following Election Day, establishing a significantly longer certification timeframe compared to Georgia's county certification [6][7]. Similar to Georgia, there is no automatic recount for a statewide Senate contest in North Carolina [2]. A trailing candidate may request a recount after the county canvass if the difference is no more than the lesser of 0.5% of votes cast or 10,000 votes. The request deadline is noon on the second business day after the county canvass for State Board contests [2][8]. This dual threshold makes North Carolina's recount criteria more restrictive than Georgia's percentage-only rule in high-turnout statewide races [8][2][7][5].
Sources (8)
- 1Election Recount Rules in Georgiageorgia.gov
- 2The Recount Process in North Carolina Explainedncsbe.gov
- 3How Georgia Votes: Explaining certifications and recountseastcobbnews.com
- 4Election Results, Canvass, and Certificationeac.gov
- 5Georgia Code § 21-2-493 (2025) - Computation, canvassing, and tabulation of returns; investigation of discrepancies in vote counts; recount procedure; posting of digital images of scanned paper ballots; certification of returns; change in returns:: 2025 Georgia Code:: U.S. Codes and Statutes:: U.S. Law:: Justialaw.justia.com
- 6State Election Canvassing Timeframes and Recount...nass.org
- 7Election Certification Deadlinesncsl.org
- 8Recounts — MultiState Electionsmultistate.us
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 Texas Senate race is effectively a toss-up between James Talarico (D) and Ken Paxton (R). Recent polling shows a range from a tie at 45%-45% to Talarico +2 at 49%-47%, with a ±2.19-point margin rendering the latter a statistical tie [1][2][3]. DDHQ models Talarico with a 60% win probability, while Kalshi prices him at 68% [4][5]. Other critical toss-up races include Maine, Kansas, and Iowa [1][3][4][5]. Maine polling shows a tie [3], Kansas has no clear leader [3], and Kalshi prices Marshall/Hamilton at 50%/50% [5]. Iowa presents as a toss-up, with Kalshi favoring Republican Ashley Hinson 52% to Democrat Josh Turek, though DDHQ gives Democrats 53% [4][5]. These races, particularly the six identified toss-ups including Ohio and Alaska, are central to Senate control [6][1][3][4][5][7].
Market probabilities currently indicate a Democratic lean for Senate control. DDHQ gives Democrats a 60% chance to win the Senate and projects 52 seats [4]. Kalshi's Senate-control page shows roughly 67%-68% Democratic control, with its Congress balance-of-power market showing a Democratic sweep at 66% [5][8][7]. Bullish catalysts for Democratic contracts include late October polling leads in Texas, Michigan, Ohio, and potentially Maine [6][1][2][3][4][5]. Negative Paxton favorability, Talarico's cross-party support, the Democratic generic-ballot advantage, and model momentum toward Democratic control also serve as bullish factors [6]. Conversely, bearish catalysts for Democrats encompass polling error, turnout-model uncertainty, Iowa's Republican edge, Maine/Kansas volatility, and correlated national-wave risk [6].
Election Day is November 3, 2026 [9][5][8][10][7]. However, final resolution for some Senate races, especially those involving Alaska's ranked-choice counting, may extend for weeks [5][8][10][7]. Certain combo markets allow resolution by official certification, or, if not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, an "Other" outcome [10]. This timeline suggests that the user's January 3, 2027 cutoff, marking the opening of the new Congress, does not necessarily guarantee market settlement for all contracts [9][5][8][10][7]. Combo contracts, trading joint probabilities, carry substantial tail and settlement risk due to potential correlation and delayed vote calls [6][1][3][4][5][7].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 10, 2027
- Closes: January 03, 2027
Sources (10)
- 1Latest Polls 2026, 2028 | RealClearPollingrealclearpolling.com
- 2TSU Texas senate poll shows Talarico narrowly ahead of Paxtonusatoday.com
- 3Democrats in striking distance: New CNN polls in four...cnn.com
- 42026 U.S. Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 5Senate Elections Prediction Markets & Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
- 62026 Senate Battleground Polls: Midterm Primary Trendsnbcnews.com
- 7Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?kalshi.com
- 82026 Live Midterms Forecasts by State | Kalshikalshi.com
- 9The Six Senate Races That Will Decide the Majoritynase.org
- 10Senate Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine: Dems sweep 49% | PolyZigpolyzig.com
