Montana Senate 2026
Short Answer
Kurt Alme is likely to win the 2026 Montana Senate race, polling at approximately 44% in late August 2026 and benefiting from a split opposition between Democrat Alani Bankhead and Independent Seth Bodnar, an outcome the market prices at 91.9%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The contract's probability dropped by nearly three percentage points around September 9. This repricing followed reports that Republican Kurt Alme had become the frontrunner in Montana's U.S. Senate race. The reports, citing late August polling, placed Alme's support at approximately 44%.
The key driver for the shift in polling and market sentiment is a structural division in the opposition. Alme's lead is attributed to a vote split between Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent candidate Seth Bodnar. Before this information was priced in, the market was stable, holding in a narrow range between 9.5% and 9.6% from late August through early September.
- Since last update (~122d): Headline model probability plunged 74.7pp, with the market dropping 73.3pp and edge compressing.
- Kurt Alme's model probability rose 10.8pp, with the market leading an 11.9pp increase, compressing edge.
- Seth Bodnar's model fell 7.5pp, market dropped 9.3pp, reflecting market-led compression.
- Alani Bankhead's model dropped 3.3pp, market 6.7pp, also demonstrating market-led compression.
- Republicans appear likely to win; Kurt Alme polls at 44% in late August 2026. Alme benefits from split opposition between Independent Seth Bodnar and Democratic Alani Bankhead. * Bodnar polls second with strong funding; Bankhead lags with low cash on hand.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Bodnar | 6.7% | 6.7% | Seth Bodnar is polling second with strong campaign funding, but split opposition hinders a victory. |
| Kurt Alme | 91.9% | 92.2% | Kurt Alme benefits from split opposition, strong financial backing, and Montana's deep-red partisan baseline. |
| Alani Bankhead | 1.1% | 1.1% | Alani Bankhead polls third with low funding, and the independent candidate fragments the opposition vote. |
Current Context
Republican Kurt Alme leads Montana Senate race due to vote split. As of September 9, 2026, Alme is the frontrunner in the Montana U.S. Senate race, benefiting from a split in the opposition vote between Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent candidate Seth Bodnar [^][^][^][^]. Polling from late August 2026 shows Alme leading with approximately 44% of the vote [^][^][^]. Bodnar tracks at 22-26% and Bankhead at 19-21%, with 13% of voters undecided [^][^][^]. The general election ballot, solidified after the August 10, 2026 withdrawal deadline, features Alani Bankhead (D), Kurt Alme (R), Kyle Austin (Libertarian), and Seth Bodnar (Independent) [^][^][^][^][^].
Decision Desk HQ forecasts Republican victory despite national Senate shifts. As of September 1, 2026, Decision Desk HQ gives Kurt Alme a 91% probability of winning the Montana seat [^][^][^]. Nationally, the 2026 Senate control battle has shifted to a 'toss-up' in early September 2026, driven by President Trump's declining job approval ratings [^][^][^][^]. Despite this broader shift, Republicans remain strong favorites to hold the Montana seat [^][^][^][^]. The Montana U.S. Senate election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and no winner has been determined yet [^][^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "YES" contract for a specific candidate resolves positively if their associated party wins the Montana Senate election. Conversely, a "NO" contract resolves positively if that candidate's associated party does not win. The market event (election) is set to begin around November 3rd, 8:00 AM EST, and all contracts will be paid out by November 3, 2027. The market's resolution is solely determined by the winning party of the Montana Senate race.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | $0.91 | $0.09 | 92% |
| Seth Bodnar | $0.08 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Alani Bankhead | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
As of September 9, 2026, the 2026 Montana U.S. Senate general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with Republican Kurt Alme, Democrat Alani Bankhead, and independent Seth Bodnar among the candidates [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Alme is widely considered the heavy favorite to win, largely due to a fractured opposition stemming from Bankhead and Bodnar remaining in the race past the withdrawal deadline [^][^][^]. Prediction markets currently assign Kurt Alme approximately a 90% probability of winning the election [^][^][^][^].
4. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Seth BodnarPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.19
Kurt AlmeTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0.13
Alani BankheadTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.44
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 9, 2026
5. What polling data and historical voting patterns in Montana support Decision Desk HQ's forecast of a 91% probability of victory for Kurt Alme?
| Kurt Alme Victory Probability | 91% (Decision Desk HQ) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Kurt Alme Polling Support | 43.9% (August 31, 2026 average) [^][^][^] |
| Prediction Market Probability | 90.8% (September 2026) [^][^] |
Decision Desk HQ forecasts a 91% probability of victory for Kurt Alme. This projection for the 2026 Montana Senate race is primarily supported by current polling data indicating Alme's lead and Montana's consistent Republican lean. The forecast model allocates 53% of its weight to fundamental factors and 22% to polling data [^][^][^].
Recent polling shows Kurt Alme holding a significant lead over his opponents. An average from August 31, 2026, indicates Alme with 43.9% support, while independent Seth Bodnar has 25.7%, and Democrat Alani Bankhead trails with 21.4%. Although Bodnar and Bankhead collectively garner 47% support, their failure to coalesce benefits Alme, positioning him as the dominant candidate. These findings are consistent with Montana's deep-red partisan baseline, as demonstrated by Donald Trump's 20-point victory in the state in 2024. Alme's strong financial backing and the fractured opposition further contribute to his favored status [^][^][^]. Additionally, prediction markets in September 2026 reflect this outlook, assigning Alme an implied win probability of approximately 90.8% [^][^].
6. How might a significant shift in President Trump's national approval ratings before November impact undecided and independent voters in Montana?
| Trump approval among independent voters nationally | 25-29% by mid-2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Trump net approval in Montana | +4 (48% approve, 44% disapprove) as of August 2026 [^] |
| Kurt Alme probability of winning | 91% [^][^] |
President Trump's national approval has significantly declined among independent voters. Nationally, President Trump's approval among independent voters has dropped to approximately 25-29% by mid-2026, contributing to a national generic ballot advantage for Democrats [^][^][^][^][^]. In contrast, his net approval rating in Montana remains comparatively higher than his national standing, recorded at +4 (48% approve, 44% disapprove) as of August 2026, whereas his national net approval is approximately -24 [^].
The 2026 Montana U.S. Senate race leans strongly Republican. The election, featuring Republican Kurt Alme, Democrat Alani Bankhead, and Independent Seth Bodnar, is rated as Likely Republican by Decision Desk HQ/The Hill and Solid Republican by other analysts as of September 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. Forecasts indicate a high probability of Republican candidate Kurt Alme winning the race, currently standing at 91% [^][^].
National presidential approval shifts are unlikely to impact Montana's Senate race. Despite the national decline in President Trump's approval among independent voters, election forecasts do not indicate that these national presidential approval dynamics are expected to alter the current Likely or Solid Republican rating of the 2026 Montana Senate race [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. While independent candidate Seth Bodnar aims to appeal to voters who reject party labels, polling from late August 2026 shows Kurt Alme with a significant lead [^][^][^].
7. How do Alani Bankhead and Seth Bodnar compare on key policy issues, and where do their platforms diverge most significantly from Kurt Alme's?
| Social Programs Stance | Alani Bankhead and Seth Bodnar advocate for protecting existing social programs, including Medicaid expansion [^][^][^]. |
|---|---|
| Fiscal Priorities | Kurt Alme focuses on curbing deficit spending and providing tax relief [^][^][^][^]. |
| Political Approach | Seth Bodnar positions himself as an independent, non-politician, rejecting major parties for an independent voice in Washington, DC [^][^][^][^]. |
Alani Bankhead and Seth Bodnar align on protecting social programs. Alani Bankhead, the Democratic nominee, and Independent candidate Seth Bodnar share common policy positions, advocating for the protection of existing social programs like Medicaid expansion and resisting broad tax and spending cuts [^][^][^]. This stance stands in direct contrast to Republican Kurt Alme's platform, which prioritizes curbing deficit spending and implementing tax relief measures [^][^][^][^].
Candidates diverge significantly on specific issues and priorities. Bodnar differentiates himself by critiquing chaotic tariff policies and emphasizing non-partisan rural advocacy, asserting that major political parties have failed Montana [^][^][^][^][^]. Bankhead's platform further highlights government accountability, protections for vulnerable populations, and a focus on rural healthcare [^][^]. In contrast, Alme centers his campaign on conservative priorities such as public safety, border security, protecting the 'Montana way of life,' supporting veterans, defending the Second Amendment, restricting sports participation by gender, and supporting farmers and ranchers, alongside his fiscal goals [^][^][^][^][^].
8. What is the expected release schedule for major public polls in the Montana Senate race between September 2026 and Election Day?
| Election Date | November 3, 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Poll Release Schedule | No fixed or expected schedule [^] |
| Public Poll Standardized Schedule | No standardized or official schedule [^] |
The 2026 Montana U.S. Senate election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^][^]. No set schedule exists for major public polls in this race, particularly for the period between September 2026 and Election Day [^]. Public polling concerning the Montana Senate race is infrequent and lacks a predetermined, publicly announced release schedule [^].
Independent organizations conduct polls, preventing a standard release timetable. Polling in this election is carried out independently by various organizations, which means there is no standardized or official timetable for the release of public poll results [^]. Instead, poll results are aggregated by services only as they become available [^].
9. How does campaign fundraising and cash-on-hand compare between the Kurt Alme, Alani Bankhead, and Seth Bodnar campaigns as of the latest 2026 FEC filings?
| Seth Bodnar (I) Total Raised | $3,238,151 [^] |
|---|---|
| Kurt Alme (R) Total Raised | $1,984,861 [^] |
| Kurt Alme (R) Cash on Hand | $1,450,719 [^] |
Bodnar leads in fundraising, while Alme has the most cash on hand. As of the June 30, 2026, FEC filing deadline, independent candidate Seth Bodnar reported raising $3,238,151 and held $977,779 in cash on hand [^]. Republican Kurt Alme's campaign had raised $1,984,861 and maintained a higher cash on hand balance of $1,450,719 [^]. Democratic candidate Alani Bankhead's campaign reported significantly lower financial figures, with $58,829 raised and $21,485 in cash on hand [^].
Bodnar's campaign activity reflects substantial receipts and disbursements. Seth Bodnar's campaign specifically reported total receipts of $3,238,150.74 between March 4, 2026, and June 30, 2026 [^][^][^]. During the same period, the campaign's total disbursements amounted to $2,260,371.43 [^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 Montana U.S. Senate race, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features Republican Kurt Alme as the front-runner for the open seat vacated by retiring Sen. Steve Daines [^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets currently assign the Republican candidate an approximate 90% probability of winning [^][^][^][^], with Decision Desk HQ forecasting Kurt Alme with a 91% win probability against Seth Bodnar's 9% [^]. This bullish sentiment for the Republican candidate is primarily driven by a fractured opposition, as Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar remain in the race, splitting the anti-Republican vote [^][^][^].
The continued presence of multiple opposition candidates—Alani Bankhead (D), Kurt Alme (R), Kyle Austin (L), and Seth Bodnar (Independent)—sustains the current market probability favoring Alme [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Senate seat - Ballotpedia News" data-source-lanes="curated">[^]. Polling consistently shows Alme leading significantly over both Bankhead and Bodnar [^][^][^]. A bearish scenario for the Republican candidate would require a consolidation of the Democratic and independent vote, which has not materialized as of September 2026 [^][^]. The general election on November 3, 2026, remains the final determinant of the outcome [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 Montana U.S.
- Trigger: Senate race, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features Republican Kurt Alme as the front-runner for the open seat vacated by retiring Sen.
- Trigger: Steve Daines [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets currently assign the Republican candidate an approximate 90% probability of winning [^] [^] [^] [^] , with Decision Desk HQ forecasting Kurt Alme with a 91% win probability against Seth Bodnar's 9% [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
