Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary: Milwaukee County
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- David Crowley secured Milwaukee County, powered by Governor Evers' critical endorsement.
- Crowley's late re-entry redefined the primary, enabling his Milwaukee victory.
- Pre-election polling favored Hong, but Crowley ultimately won Milwaukee County.
Current Context
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Francesca Hong
📉 August 12, 2026: 34.0pp drop
Price decreased from 35.5% to 1.5%
📈 August 10, 2026: 19.0pp spike
Price increased from 55.5% to 74.5%
📈 August 08, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 36.5% to 53.5%
Outcome: David Crowley
📈 August 11, 2026: 47.0pp spike
Price increased from 17.5% to 64.5%
📉 August 09, 2026: 19.0pp drop
Price decreased from 37.5% to 18.5%
Sources (16)
- 1Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryjsonline.com
- 22026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 32026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 4Today's Biggest Prediction Market Moves: Kalshi & Polymarket | PicksByOddspicksbyodds.com
- 5Will CPI Core rise more than 0.9% in July?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for t… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 7Polling explains Francesca Hong's grip on Wisconsin Democratic primarygreenbaypressgazette.com
- 8Ahead of Democratic debate, poll finds Francesca Hong up in primary for governor - WPRwpr.org
- 9Socialist Francesca Hong Surges in Wisconsin Despite Democrat Anxiety - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 10Poll: Francesca Hong leads Democratic primary for governorupnorthnewswi.com
- 11Crowley Narrowly Eclipses Hong, Will Face Tiffany » Urban Milwaukeeurbanmilwaukee.com
- 12Wisconsin’s Democratic race for governor remains too close to callwisconsinwatch.org
- 13Francesca Hong and David Crowley battle for the lead in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governornbcnews.com
- 14How David Crowley upset Wisconsin’s governor’s race | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 15Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
- 16Moderate Democrat Projected to Win Wisconsin Primary; Trump Claims Hormuz Control | Bloomberg...youtube.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution for a candidate occurs if they receive the most valid votes in the Milwaukee County Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled for August 11, 2026. In case of a vote tie, the candidate with the alphabetically higher last name will be declared the winner. If results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Other," with official Wisconsin government reports serving as the final source for resolution.
Market Discussion
Traders overwhelmingly expect David Crowley to win Milwaukee County, driven by his established local base, prior state assembly service, and an endorsement from Governor Tony Evers. Despite Francesca Hong's broader progressive momentum and earlier statewide polling leads, she has garnered limited support in the county. With Crowley's narrow statewide victory already confirmed, the market reflects a strong consensus for him, making an unexpected recount or tabulation delay the only potential disruptor to the outcome.
5. Trader Dashboard
6. What key events and strategic shifts defined David Crowley's late surge in the Wisconsin Democratic primary?
| Re-entry Date | July 18, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Date | August 11, 2026 [1][3][4][2] |
| Winning Margin | Approximately 0.4% [1][3][4][2] |
Sources (5)
- 1David Crowley’s win sets up Wisconsin race with Trump-backed Tom Tiffany | AP Newsapnews.com
- 2David Crowley (D) defeated Joel Brennan (D), Francesca...news.ballotpedia.org
- 3David Crowley pulls off stunning comeback victory over...jsonline.com
- 4David Crowley accepts Democratic nomination for Wis. governor - WISNwisn.com
- 5How David Crowley upset Wisconsin’s governor’s race | CNN Politicscnn.com
7. How did pre-election polling for the Wisconsin Democratic primary compare to the final Milwaukee County vote tallies for David Crowley and Francesca Hong?
| Hong's lead in pre-election poll | 22-point advantage over Crowley (State Navigate) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Milwaukee County Primary Winner | David Crowley with 43.04% of the vote [3][1] |
| Statewide Primary Winner | David Crowley with approximately 39.8% of the vote [3] |
Sources (12)
- 1Crowley Narrowly Eclipses Hong, Will Face Tiffany » Urban Milwaukeeurbanmilwaukee.com
- 2Francesca Hong’s Chances of Beating David Crowley in Wisconsin: Final Polls - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 3Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryjsonline.com
- 4Seven Democrats seek Wisconsin governor nomination as Evers retires - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 5Wisconsin Democrats ask state commission to let mail-in voters recast ballots after changes to gubernatorial candidate field - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 6Mandela Barnes suspends campaign for Democratic nomination for governor of Wisconsin - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 7David Crowley (D) defeated Joel Brennan (D), Francesca...news.ballotpedia.org
- 8Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 11...ballotpedia.org
- 9David Crowley wins Democratic primary for Wisconsin...newsroom.ap.org
- 10Moderate Democrat Projected to Win Wisconsin Primary; Trump Claims Hormuz Control | Bloomberg...youtube.com
- 11Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
- 122026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
8. How did voter support for David Crowley and Francesca Hong vary across different neighborhoods and demographic groups within Milwaukee County?
| Primary Winner | David Crowley (August 11, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| Crowley's Vote in Milwaukee County | approximately 43% [1][2][3][4][7][8] |
| Crowley's Margin in Milwaukee County | 1.60% [1][2][3][4][7][8] |
Sources (10)
- 1Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primarypostcrescent.com
- 2Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryjsonline.com
- 3Wisconsin Governor Primary Election 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
- 4David Crowley bests Francesca Hong to win Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor | Race for Governor | wkow.comwkow.com
- 5David Crowley (D) defeated Joel Brennan (D), Francesca...news.ballotpedia.org
- 6Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 11...ballotpedia.org
- 72026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 82026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 9Wisconsin Democrats ask state commission to let mail-in voters recast ballots after changes to gubernatorial candidate field - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 10David Crowley Wins an Upset with a Familiar Coalition Behind Him – Marquette University Law School Faculty Bloglaw.marquette.edu
9. Where can official precinct-level results for the August 11, 2026, Democratic gubernatorial primary in Milwaukee County be accessed?
| Primary Election Date | August 11, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Milwaukee County Results | Milwaukee County Clerk's Election Commission website [6][7][8] |
| Statewide Results | Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) website [9] |
Sources (13)
- 12026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 2Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 11...ballotpedia.org
- 32026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 4August 11, 2026, election resultsballotpedia.org
- 5Wisconsin gubernatorial and lieutenant...ballotpedia.org
- 68-11-26 Partisan Primary - Unofficial Results (Election...county.milwaukee.gov
- 7UNOFFICIAL RESULTS Summary Results Report 2026...county.milwaukee.gov
- 8Milwaukee Countycounty.milwaukee.gov
- 9https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/resultsdata/2023/precinct/WI_sp_sg_documentation.txtelection.lab.ufl.edu
- 10Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryjsonline.com
- 11Human error forces delay in Milwaukee primary election...wisn.com
- 12Wisconsin’s Democratic race for governor remains too close to callwisconsinwatch.org
- 13David Crowley wins Democratic primary for Wisconsin...pbs.org
10. What specific impact did Governor Tony Evers' endorsement have on David Crowley's performance in Milwaukee County?
| Crowley Re-entry into Primary | July 18, 2026 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Crowley's Vote Share in Milwaukee County | 43% [4][5][6][7][8] |
| Crowley's Statewide Primary Victory Margin | 39.80% to 39.38% [7][8] |
Sources (13)
- 1Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers backs David Crowley in Democratic primary | AP Newsapnews.com
- 2Milwaukee County Exec. David Crowley reenters Wisconsin governor’s race with Gov. Evers' endorsement • Wisconsin Examinerwisconsinexaminer.com
- 3David Crowley reenters Wisconsin governor's race with...politico.com
- 4Milwaukee County Exec. David Crowley calls for Democrats to unite as he accepts primary nomination • Wisconsin Examinerwisconsinexaminer.com
- 5Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryjsonline.com
- 6Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primarypostcrescent.com
- 72026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 82026 Wisconsin Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 9David Crowley (D) defeated Joel Brennan (D), Francesca...news.ballotpedia.org
- 10Forget left vs. center. Democratic voters are making clear they...ap.org
- 11Wisconsin Democrats ask state commission to let mail-in voters recast ballots after changes to gubernatorial candidate field - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 12The 'Crowley comeback' defied the odds, and reset expectations - WPRwpr.org
- 13David Crowley Wins Dem Primary For Wisconsin Governor | HuffPost Latest Newshuffpost.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: August 11, 2026
Sources (9)
- 1Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 11...ballotpedia.org
- 2David Crowley (D) defeated Joel Brennan (D), Francesca...news.ballotpedia.org
- 3Wisconsin election results by county for governor, Democratic primaryjsonline.com
- 4Francesca Hong and David Crowley battle for the lead in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governornbcnews.com
- 5Crowley Narrowly Eclipses Hong, Will Face Tiffany » Urban Milwaukeeurbanmilwaukee.com
- 6David Crowley’s win sets up Wisconsin race with Trump-backed Tom Tiffany | AP Newsapnews.com
- 7How David Crowley upset Wisconsin’s governor’s race | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 8Moderate Democrat Projected to Win Wisconsin Primary; Trump Claims Hormuz Control | Bloomberg...youtube.com
- 9Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com