South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Darline Graham Nordone to win the South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. Political analysts and recent polling indicate a runoff is highly likely due to the large field of candidates.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market opened on July 23 with the nominee's implied probability at 69.1% and has since trended consistently downward. The price is currently 48.9%, near its all-time low of 44.6%, after falling from a peak of 74.9%. Two major downward movements define the recent price action. On July 30, the contract dropped from 74.2% to 58.2%. Later, on August 6, it fell another 11.5 percentage points from 60.5% to 48.9%. The price has broken below the prior support level in the high 50s and now appears to be testing support in the mid-to-high 40s.
The August 6 price drop occurred during the early voting period, which ran from August 5 to August 7. The context for the July 30 drop is less direct; the provided research indicates that a reported price spike for a rival candidate on the same day was a misattribution, suggesting market confusion may have been a factor. Critically, with a total traded volume of zero contracts, these price movements do not reflect actual market transactions. The price changes are likely algorithmic or manual adjustments by a market maker based on external information feeds rather than trader activity.
The lack of volume indicates there is no market conviction behind any price level. The downward trajectory suggests that sentiment has shifted dramatically from viewing the candidate as a strong favorite to being an underdog or, at best, in a toss-up race. The drop below the 50% threshold on August 6 is a significant psychological level, implying the market no longer views this candidate as the most likely winner of the primary. However, all price action in this market must be interpreted as purely theoretical given the absence of any trading.
- A runoff on August 25 is highly likely, given 12 candidates.
- Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman lead late July polls.
Current Context
South Carolina's special primary fills a Senate vacancy created by Graham's death. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham died on July 11, 2026, creating a vacancy for the Republican Party's U.S. Senate nominee [1][2][3][4]. A special Republican Party primary is scheduled for Tuesday, August 11, 2026, to select a replacement nominee for the November 3, 2026, General Election [5][6][7][3][8]. Twelve Republican candidates filed to run in this special primary election [2].
Early voting concluded, with a runoff possible if no candidate wins outright. Early voting for the special primary took place from Wednesday, August 5, to Friday, August 7, 2026 [1][5][7]. If no candidate secures a majority in the August 11 primary, a runoff election will be held on August 25, 2026 [2][5][3][8][9]. As of August 6, 2026, the special primary remains upcoming [10]. Candidates listed as participants include Duke Buckner, Glenda Parker, and Darline Graham [3][10].
Sources (10)
- 1How to vote early in the SC Senate primary to replace Graham | The Statethestate.com
- 2Republicans file for special primary to replace Lindsey Graham in Senate | AP Newsapnews.com
- 3Lindsey Graham's death will set off a special primary election for a Senate seat that's open for the second time since 1956 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 4Lindsey Graham becomes the fourth member of the U.S. Senate since 2013 to die while in office - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 5U.S. Senate Special Republican Party Filing & Primaryscvotes.gov
- 6United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2026...ballotpedia.org
- 7Early Voting - U.S. Senate Special Republican Primaryscvotes.gov
- 8FEC | Dates and deadlines | 2026 South Carolina Republican Party Senate primary/runoff election report noticefec.gov
- 9Lindsay Graham is the fifth U.S. Senator to die during a re-election campaign since 1918 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 102026 South Carolina US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Darline Graham Nordone
📉 August 06, 2026: 11.5pp drop
Price decreased from 60.5% to 48.9%
What happened: The 11.5 percentage point drop for Darline Graham Nordone on August 06, 2026, occurred during the early voting period for the South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary, which ran from August 5 through August 7, 2026 [1][2][3]. However, the provided research does not contain specific social media activity or traditional news reports from August 6, 2026, detailing events that would directly explain this significant price movement for Nordone [4][5][6][7][8][9]. Therefore, based on the available information, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market shift.
Outcome: Ralph Norman
📉 August 01, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 30.0% to 15.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not corroborate a 15.0 percentage point drop in Ralph Norman's prediction market price for the "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" on August 01, 2026 [10]. While Ralph Norman is a prominent candidate in the upcoming August 11, 2026, special Republican primary to replace the late Senator Lindsey Graham, no information detailing market price movements for this outcome on the specified date is available in the provided sources [11][12][10]. Without evidence of the reported price movement, it is impossible to identify its primary driver from the given research. Consequently, the role of social media in influencing this uncorroborated price movement cannot be assessed.
📈 July 30, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 20.5% to 37.5%
What happened: The provided research indicates that the reported 17.0 percentage point spike for Ralph Norman on July 30, 2026, is a misattribution or confusion with unrelated prediction market data, and not a verified movement for his campaign [13]. Consequently, without a confirmed market event, identifying a primary driver is not possible. No social media activity from key figures or traditional news announcements on or immediately preceding July 30, 2026, are present in the available sources that would explain such a specific and dramatic price increase for Ralph Norman [1-14]. Given the unverified nature of the price movement, social media appears to be irrelevant as a driver in this instance.
Sources (13)
- 1How to vote early in the SC Senate primary to replace Graham | The Statethestate.com
- 2Early Voting - U.S. Senate Special Republican Primaryscvotes.gov
- 3Early voting in special GOP Senate primary starts Wednesdaypostandcourier.com
- 4US Reinstates Blockade of Hormuz; Graham's Sister Appointed to Senate | Bloomberg Daybreak: US...youtube.com
- 5Trump Restarts Iran Blockade as US Plans 20% Hormuz Charge | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com
- 6Us & Iran Shun Diplomacy, 100% Drug Tariffs Plan | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
- 7Trump Accuses China of Election Meddling; Fears Mount of US and Iran Escalation | Bloomberg...youtube.com
- 8Trump Talks Up Iran Diplomacy; Chip Rout Deepens on China Competition | Bloomberg Daybreak: US...youtube.com
- 9Meb Faber’s Mid-Year Market Reviewyoutube.com
- 10Lindsey Graham's death will set off a special primary election for a Senate seat that's open for the second time since 1956 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 11U.S. Senate Special Republican Party Filing & Primaryscvotes.gov
- 12South Carolina 2026: Norman, Graham Lead GOP Special Primary; Runoff Likely - Emerson Pollingemersoncollegepolling.com
- 13News — top prediction-market movers | pdatapdata.world
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided content describes a Polymarket prediction market, not a Kalshi market.
Here's a summary of the contract rules:
1. What exactly triggers a YES resolution: A YES resolution for a specific candidate occurs if that candidate wins the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no special primary takes place by November 2, 2026, the market resolves YES for the candidate officially designated as the Republican nominee for the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate election. 2. What triggers a NO resolution: A NO resolution for a specific candidate occurs if they do not win the special Republican Primary, or are not named the official Republican nominee in the absence of a primary. If the results are not definitively known or there is no Republican nominee by November 2, 2026, the market will resolve to "Other," meaning all named candidates resolve NO. 3. Key dates/deadlines: The primary vote is set for August 11, 2026, with a runoff potentially on August 25, 2026. The definitive resolution deadline for the winner or nominee is November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 4. Any special settlement conditions: The market's resolution source will be the first official announcement from the South Carolina Republican party, or a strong consensus from credible news reporting. If no special primary occurs by the November 2, 2026 deadline, it resolves based on the official Republican nominee for the general election.
Market Discussion
Traders in the South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary market are focused on a fragmented field, with Darline Graham Nordone (48.9%), Ralph Norman (27%), and Russell Fry (23.3%) as the leading candidates. While Nordone holds a plurality, a lack of consolidated support among any candidate and persistent vote-splitting make a runoff highly probable. The market indicates that participants are weighing name recognition, institutional ties, and experience against potential outsider appeals and the impact of late endorsements.
5. Trader Dashboard
Trust profile
Event quality60
Healthy
6. What is the probability of a runoff election on August 25, and which candidates are best positioned for a two-person race?
| Primary Election Date | August 11, 2026 (August 11, 2026 [1][2][3]) |
|---|---|
| Runoff Election Date | August 25, 2026 (August 25, 2026 [1][2][3]) |
| Primary Candidate Field | 10 candidates (10-candidate field [4][5]) |
A runoff election on August 25, 2026, is highly likely. Political analysts and recent polling indicate that no single candidate is expected to secure the 50% majority required in the crowded 10-candidate field for the special Republican primary [4][5]. The special Republican primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026, and a runoff election is formally scheduled for August 25, 2026, if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round [1][2][3]. This primary aims to determine a replacement nominee [6].
Sources (6)
- 1U.S. Senate Special Republican Party Filing & Primaryscvotes.gov
- 2Upcoming South Carolina Election Datesvote411.org
- 3SC elections timeline set to determine Lindsey Graham's replacementgreenvilleonline.com
- 4SC GOP Senate primary polling shows no clear frontrunner | The Statethestate.com
- 59 Senate candidates make stump speeches to voters ahead of SC GOP special primary • SC Daily Gazettescdailygazette.com
- 6Lindsey Graham's death will set off a special primary election for a Senate seat that's open for the second time since 1956 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
7. What do the final public polls from July and August 2026 reveal about the potential top-two finishers in the SC Republican Senate primary?
| Special Primary Election Date | August 11, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Darline Graham's Highest Poll (Co/Efficient) | 30% [3][4][5][6] |
| Ralph Norman's Highest Poll (Emerson) | 22% [7][4][6] |
Late July polls indicated a likely runoff among top candidates. Public polling from late July 2026 suggested Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, and Russell Fry were the primary contenders to advance to a likely runoff in the August 11, 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary [7][3][4][6]. However, as of August 6, 2026, there was no publicly available polling data or expert-projected top-two finishers for this special Republican primary [8][1]. The special election was prompted by the death of incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11, 2026 [1][2].
Public polls from late July presented differing leads among candidates. The Emerson College poll, conducted July 28-29, placed Ralph Norman in the lead with 22%, followed by Darline Graham at 19%, Russell Fry at 12%, and Mark Sanford at 11% [7][4][6]. Conversely, a Co/Efficient poll showed Darline Graham leading with 30%, ahead of Russell Fry at 16% and Ralph Norman at 15% [3][4][5][6]. A Trafalgar Group poll also indicated Darline Graham leading with 27%, with Norman and Fry tied at 17% [3][4][5][6].
Prediction markets favored Darline Graham despite polling variations. Despite the lack of a clear leader in the publicly available polls, prediction markets, such as Polymarket, listed Darline Graham as the favorite to win the Republican nomination as of August 6, 2026 [3][6]. The special Republican primary election was scheduled for August 11, 2026 [1][2].
Sources (8)
- 1Lindsey Graham's death will set off a special primary election for a Senate seat that's open for the second time since 1956 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 2FEC | Dates and deadlines | 2026 South Carolina Republican Party Senate primary/runoff election report noticefec.gov
- 3SC GOP Senate primary polling shows no clear frontrunner | The Statethestate.com
- 4Election 2026: Graham, Norman share poll leads | South Carolina | thecentersquare.comthecentersquare.com
- 5How SC Senate candidates are prepping for an Aug. 11 primarypostandcourier.com
- 6Graham’s Chances of Replacing Brother on South Carolina Ballot After Debate - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 7South Carolina 2026: Norman, Graham Lead GOP Special Primary; Runoff Likely - Emerson Pollingemersoncollegepolling.com
- 82026 South Carolina US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
8. How do the campaign fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for leading candidates like Nancy Mace, Joe Wilson, and Alan Wilson compare ahead of the August 11 vote?
| Special Republican Senate Primary Date | August 11, 2026 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Candidates Not Running | Nancy Mace, Joe Wilson, Alan Wilson [5][6][7][8][9] |
| Current Listed Candidates | Darline Graham, Duke Buckner, Glenda Parker [5][6] |
Nancy Mace, Joe Wilson, and Alan Wilson are not candidates in the August 11, 2026, special Republican Senate primary. Consequently, there are no published campaign fundraising totals or cash-on-hand figures for these individuals specifically for this special Senate primary race [5][6]. Representative Joe Wilson has publicly stated his decision not to pursue a Senate bid, choosing instead to remain in the House [7][8]. Similarly, Attorney General Alan Wilson is not a candidate in this particular special primary [9][8]. While Representative Nancy Mace did consider a run for the Senate, there is no evidence indicating she possesses significant campaign funds specifically allocated for a current Senate race, as her House committee's activity has been limited and she faces issues with debt and fund transfers [9][10].
The special Republican primary is scheduled to fill the late Senator Lindsey Graham's seat. This election is set for August 11, 2026, with early voting scheduled from August 5–7 [1][2][3][4]. The candidates currently listed for this specific race are Darline Graham, Duke Buckner, and Glenda Parker [5][6]. Prediction markets for the Senate special primary widely indicate Darline Graham Nordone as the favored candidate [11][12][13].
Sources (13)
- 1U.S. Senate Special Republican Party Filing & Primaryscvotes.gov
- 2How to vote early in the SC Senate primary to replace Graham | The Statethestate.com
- 3U.S. Senate Special Republican Party Primaryberkeleycountysc.gov
- 4Lindsey Graham's death will set off a special primary election for a Senate seat that's open for the second time since 1956 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 5United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2026...ballotpedia.org
- 62026 South Carolina US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 7Republicans scramble to find a replacement for Sen. Lindsey Graham ahead of the midterm electionsnbcnews.com
- 8Who in SC will try to succeed Graham in U.S. Senate? | The Statethestate.com
- 9Lindsey Graham’s death resets South Carolina Senate race, halts his massive money machine • OpenSecretsopensecrets.org
- 10Nancy Mace, Ralph Norman still eyeing Senate bids despite Trump snubaxios.com
- 11South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner | W.E.T.worldeventtrading.com
- 12South Carolina Senate primary odds: Graham's sister opens as heavy favoritenews.kalshi.com
- 13South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner: Kalshi Odds, Predictionsactionnetwork.com
9. Are there reliable, recent polling data available at a congressional district level for the August 11 special primary?
| Polling Data Availability | No reliable, recent polling data available (South Carolina Republican U.S. Senate special primary, August 11, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Election Type | Statewide contest, not by congressional district [2][6][3][7][4][5][1] |
| Reason for Data Scarcity | Compressed nature of election following incumbent's death [2][3][4][5] |
No recent, reliable public polling exists for the upcoming special primary. As of August 6, 2026, there is no publicly available polling data for the South Carolina Republican U.S. Senate special primary, which is scheduled for August 11, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. This contest is a statewide election, not organized by individual congressional districts [2][6][3][7][4][5][1].
A compressed timeline limited opportunities for extensive public polling. The absence of reliable and recent polling data is primarily due to the expedited nature of this election [2][3][4][5]. The special primary was necessitated by the unexpected death of the incumbent, resulting in a quick turnaround that typically restricts the ability for comprehensive public polling efforts [2][3][4][5].
Sources (7)
- 12026 South Carolina US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 2U.S. Senate Special Republican Party Filing & Primaryscvotes.gov
- 3How to vote early in the SC Senate primary to replace Graham | The Statethestate.com
- 4Early voting in special GOP Senate primary starts Wednesdaypostandcourier.com
- 5Early voting open in special South Carolina Republican primary to replace late Sen. Lindsey Grahamwbtv.com
- 6Early Voting - U.S. Senate Special Republican Primaryscvotes.gov
- 7Republicans file for special primary to replace Lindsey Graham in Senate | AP Newsapnews.com
10. What impact have key endorsements from national figures like Donald Trump or state leaders had on candidate momentum in the final weeks before the primary?
| Endorsement Impact | None reported as primary-altering as of August 6, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Date | August 11, 2026 [3][4][5] |
| Number of Candidates | 10 [4][6][7][8] |
No significant endorsements have emerged in the South Carolina special primary. As of August 6, 2026, there have been no specific, widely reported primary-altering endorsements from national figures or state leaders in the ongoing 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary cycle [1][2]. This special primary, scheduled for August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026, aims to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated following the death of Senator Lindsey Graham [3][4][5]. The crowded field consists of 10 candidates, including U.S. Representatives Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, incumbent Senator Darline Graham, former governor Mark Sanford, and businessman Mark Lynch [4][6][7][8].
Donald Trump's endorsements typically influence Republican primaries significantly. Research indicates that endorsements from Donald Trump frequently lead to double-digit increases in fundraising and polling numbers, particularly in low-information or highly contested Republican primary races [9][10][11][12][13]. While Donald Trump had previously indicated potential interest in supporting Russell Fry, he has not issued a formal endorsement for the 2026 special Senate primary as of August 6, 2026 [4][6].
Key endorsements have not directly influenced this primary race to date. Therefore, as of the final week leading up to the August 11, 2026 election, available information does not specify any direct impact on candidate momentum resulting from key national or state leader endorsements in this particular primary [1][2].
Sources (13)
- 1Lindsey Graham's death will set off a special primary election for a Senate seat that's open for the second time since 1956 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 2Endorsers in South Carolinaballotpedia.org
- 3U.S. Senate Special Republican Party Filing & Primaryscvotes.gov
- 4Republicans file for special primary to replace Lindsey Graham in Senate | AP Newsapnews.com
- 5How to vote early in the SC Senate primary to replace Graham | The Statethestate.com
- 6Field set for SC GOP primary race to replace Lindsey Grahampostandcourier.com
- 7Judge orders Danny Ford II be added to SC GOP Senate ballot | The Statethestate.com
- 89 Senate candidates make stump speeches to voters ahead of SC GOP special primary • SC Daily Gazettescdailygazette.com
- 9How Much Is a Trump Endorsement Worth?cambridge.org
- 10Who Decides? Media,MAGA,Money,and Mentions in the 2022 Republican Primariessage.cnpereading.com
- 11Who Decides?mikecowburn.com
- 12WashU Expert: Research explains Trump’s influence on primary contests - The Source - WashUsource.washu.edu
- 13What Tuesday’s election results say about Trump’s GOP influencenbcnews.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Following the death of incumbent U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on July 11, 2026, a special Republican primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026, to select a replacement nominee for the November 3, 2026, general election [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The primary field consists of 12 candidates [7][2][3]. A potential runoff election is scheduled for August 25, 2026, if no candidate secures a majority of the vote in the August 11 primary [7][2][3][4][5][8][6]. Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, Senator Graham's sister, to complete the remainder of the Senate term [2][3][9].
Early voting for the special Republican primary took place from August 5 through August 7, 2026 [1][10][11][12]. Eligibility for this primary is limited to voters who participated in the June Republican primary or did not vote in either party's June primary; those who voted in the June Democratic primary are ineligible [1][10][11][12]. As of August 6, 2026, the special primary remains upcoming, with Duke Buckner, Darline Graham, and Glenda Parker listed among the candidates [2][13].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: August 11, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1U.S. Senate Special Republican Party Filing & Primaryscvotes.gov
- 2Lindsey Graham's death will set off a special primary election for a Senate seat that's open for the second time since 1956 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 32026 United States Senate election in South Carolinaen.wikipedia.org
- 4Primary election report notice - South Carolina Republican...fec.gov
- 5Congressional pre-election reporting dates (2026)fec.gov
- 6Lindsay Graham is the fifth U.S. Senator to die during a re-election campaign since 1918 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 7Republicans file for special primary to replace Lindsey Graham in Senate | AP Newsapnews.com
- 8South Carolina and Maine will be the first states to replace a major party U.S. Senate nominee since 2016 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 9US Reinstates Blockade of Hormuz; Graham's Sister Appointed to Senate | Bloomberg Daybreak: US...youtube.com
- 10Early Voting - U.S. Senate Special Republican Primaryscvotes.gov
- 11Early voting in special GOP Senate primary starts Wednesdaypostandcourier.com
- 12How to vote early in the SC Senate primary to replace Graham | The Statethestate.com
- 132026 South Carolina US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
