Short Answer

Jermaine Johnson is not expected to win the 2026 South Carolina Governor election, with the market pricing this outcome at 5.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market consistently prices a low probability for a Democratic victory in the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election. The provided information does not contain a specific catalyst for the price movements from a high of 6.9% to a low of 3.1%. The state's established Republican lean in statewide contests is the likely driver for the contract's low absolute valuation.
The sideways trading pattern within a narrow range, combined with extremely low total volume, suggests a lack of new information or significant speculative interest. Price fluctuations appear to be minor adjustments in a placid market rather than reactions to specific events. The race features Republican Alan Wilson and Democrat Jermaine Johnson, with incumbent Henry McMaster term-limited.
  • Since last update (~28d): Alan Wilson's model probability increased by 4.9pp, with the model leading this move and its edge flipping.
  • Jermaine Johnson's model probability decreased by 4.9pp, with its edge widening.
  • The market probability for Jermaine Johnson fell by 4.4pp, now at 5.0%.
  • The headline edge between model and market widened by 0.5pp to -0.7pp.
  • Alan Wilson appears likely to win given South Carolina's consistent Republican advantage.
  • Wilson's significant fundraising strength supports his position as the leading candidate.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Jermaine Johnson 5.0% 4.3% Jermaine Johnson faces an uphill battle in a deeply Republican state with limited campaign resources.
Alan Wilson 94.0% 95.7% Alan Wilson benefits from South Carolina's strong Republican lean and the advantages of his incumbency.

Current Context

The 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026 [1][2]. Current Governor Henry McMaster is ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits; his final term concludes in January 2027 [1][3]. Republican nominee Alan Wilson and Democratic nominee Jermaine Johnson are the contenders [1][4].
Prediction markets show a strong advantage for the Republican candidate, Alan Wilson [5][6][7]. Decision Desk HQ projects Wilson as the likely winner, with a 77% win probability and a projected margin of R+10 as of August 28, 2026 [8]. The election has not yet occurred as of September 9, 2026 [2].
Key electoral dates precede the November 3 Election Day [1]. A televised debate between the candidates is scheduled for October 6, 2026, at WIS studios in Columbia [1][4]. Registration for in-person voting closes on October 2, 2026, and early voting runs from October 19 through October 31, 2026 [1].
Sources (8)
  1. 1South Carolina governor candidates to debatethetandd.com
  2. 22026 South Carolina Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3Henry McMaster - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 South Carolina Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  5. 5Who will win the governorship in South Carolina? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  6. 6South Carolina Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odd... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  7. 7November 3, 2026: South Carolina Governor winner Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 82026 South Carolina Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For any contract related to a candidate in this market:

  1. YES resolution: The contract resolves to YES if the specified candidate's party wins the South Carolina Governorship.
  2. NO resolution: The contract resolves to NO if the specified candidate's party does not win the South Carolina Governorship.
  3. Key dates/deadlines: Trading for the market begins on November 3, 8:00 AM EST. The maximum payout date for the market is November 3, 2027.
  4. Special settlement conditions: The market specifically resolves based on the winning party of the South Carolina Governorship.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Alan Wilson $0.95 $0.06 94%
Jermaine Johnson $0.07 $0.95 5%

Market Discussion

Traders overwhelmingly anticipate a Republican victory in the South Carolina Governor race, with Alan Wilson's party currently holding a 94% chance in the market. This strong consensus is supported by Wilson leading in candidate polls (47.5% to Jermaine Johnson's 38.7%) and South Carolina's consistent Republican lean in past presidential elections. The Democratic party is given only a 5% chance, indicating a very low perceived probability of an upset.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 76 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score82Good
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score76Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
78Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on GOVPARTYSC-26-R carried 44% of its $5,396 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 33d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
63Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first

Jermaine Johnson55
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 21% vs realized 2%
Alan Wilson63
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 2% vs realized 0%
Move quality
49Mixed

Some moves lacked volume

2 contracts · worst first

Alan Wilson48
Mixed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 3d

Jermaine Johnson66
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 7d

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Alan Wilson100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Jermaine Johnson100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
49High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 63 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.8c slippage (~14% of a 5.6c contract)

$1,000 order: 3.3c slippage (~59% of a 5.6c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Alan Wilson63Market scoreLiquidity63Move quality48Rule clarity100
Why 63
Liquidity
63 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 2% vs realized 0%
Move quality
48 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Jermaine Johnson55Market scoreLiquidity55Move quality66Rule clarity100
Why 55
Liquidity
55 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 21% vs realized 2%
Move quality
66 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 7d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

5. How do Alan Wilson's and Jermaine Johnson's policy platforms on key South Carolina issues compare?

Alan Wilson's State Income Tax PolicyReduce state income tax [1][2]
Jermaine Johnson's State Income Tax PolicyEliminate state income tax [3][4]
Jermaine Johnson's Additional Policy FocusSupports Universal Basic Income (UBI) pilot program [5]
Alan Wilson and Jermaine Johnson offer distinct policy platforms for South Carolina. Wilson, promoting a conservative agenda, prioritizes reducing the state income tax, modernizing infrastructure through public-private partnerships, implementing strict law-and-order approaches, enforcing immigration, and ensuring election integrity [1][2][6][7]. Conversely, Johnson’s platform centers on eliminating the state income tax, investing in public education, expanding healthcare access, providing affordable housing, and repairing existing infrastructure [3][4]. A primary distinction between the candidates is their stance on the state income tax: Wilson aims for its reduction [1][2], while Johnson advocates for its complete elimination [3][4].
Infrastructure and social programs highlight further policy divergences. On infrastructure, Wilson's approach focuses on modernization through public-private partnerships [1][2], while Johnson prioritizes the general repair of existing systems [3][4]. Additionally, Johnson’s platform includes specific social initiatives, such as establishing a Governor’s Commission on Fathers & Families [3][4][8] and expressing support for a Universal Basic Income (UBI) pilot program within South Carolina [5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Alan Wilson's Conservative Prioritieswilsonforsc.com
  2. 2Alan Wilson lays out priorities in bid for governor alongside running...abcnews4.com
  3. 3Policies | Explore Policy Solutions — Make A Differencejohnsonforsc.com
  4. 4Dr. Jermaine Johnson for Governorjohnsonforsc.com
  5. 5Jermaine Johnson - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6SC Governor's Race | Candidate Profile: Alan Wilson - Fox Carolinafoxcarolina.com
  7. 7Alan Wilson, anti-voting attorney general, wins South Carolina GOP...democracydocket.com
  8. 8Jermaine Johnson is running for South Carolina Governor in 2026...facebook.com

6. What do the latest campaign finance reports for Alan Wilson and Jermaine Johnson reveal about their fundraising and spending priorities?

Alan Wilson Fundraising (recent quarter)Nearly $1.3 million [1]
Alan Wilson Cash on Hand (late 2025)Over $1 million [1]
Jermaine Johnson Fundraising (post-primary)$165,000 (June 9 - June 30, 2026) [2][3][4]
South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson has demonstrated significant fundraising strength, accumulating substantial campaign funds. His campaign reported a recent haul of nearly $1.3 million in a single quarter, maintaining over $1 million in cash on hand as of late 2025 [1]. While Wilson's financial performance has been strong, specific granular spending priorities for his 2026 gubernatorial campaign are not explicitly disclosed in the provided search results [5][6].
Jermaine Johnson's fundraising lags significantly behind Wilson's, focusing on digital and media expenditures. This trend of lower fundraising is typical for Democratic gubernatorial candidates in South Carolina [4]. Johnson raised $165,000 between his primary victory on June 9, 2026, and June 30, 2026 [2][3][4]. His campaign has heavily utilized digital and media strategies for expenditures, with notable payments made to firms such as Complete Digital, NGP VAN, and Ripple Effect Strategies [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Alan Wilson's campaign reports record fundraising ahead of 2026...abcnews4.com
  2. 2Quarter 1, 2026 Report | Jermaine L. Johnson - SC Ethics Filingethicsfiling.sc.gov
  3. 3Reports - SC Ethics Filing - South Carolinaethicsfiling.sc.gov
  4. 4Can Jermaine Johnson turn his fundraising tide in South Carolinathestate.com
  5. 52026 South Carolina Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 South Carolina Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Jermaine L Johnson - South Carolina Candidate - Transparency USAtransparencyusa.org

7. How might the scheduled October 6, 2026 debate between Wilson and Johnson impact polling and market odds?

Gubernatorial Debate DateOctober 6, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Alan Wilson Win Probability (Sept 9, 2026)77% [6]
Republican Win Odds90% to 93.5% [7][8][9][10]
The upcoming debate is unlikely to significantly alter the South Carolina gubernatorial race. The scheduled live, one-hour gubernatorial debate on October 6, 2026, between Republican nominee Alan Wilson and Democratic nominee Jermaine Johnson, to be hosted by Gray Media stations at WIS studios in Columbia [1][2], is expected to have limited long-term impact. Debates typically cause only short-term shifts in polling and public perception, rarely changing the overall course of an election, particularly when candidates have established positions with voters [3][4][5]. This is especially true for South Carolina, which has been a reliably Republican seat since 2003 [7][8][9][10][11][12].
Prediction markets overwhelmingly favor a Republican victory in the gubernatorial election. Republican candidate Alan Wilson is consistently favored, with specific data from September 9, 2026, showing a 77% probability of winning against Democratic candidate Jermaine Johnson's 23% [6]. Across various other prediction markets, the probability for a Republican win generally spans 90% to 93.5%, while Democratic prospects typically range from 5% to 9% [7][8][9][10]. This high stability in prediction market odds holds firm despite the impending debate [12]. However, Decision Desk HQ's data for September 9, 2026, shows no active prediction markets for this race [6].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Exclusive SC governor's race debate set between Johnson and Wilsonfoxcarolina.com
  2. 2South Carolina governor candidates, Johnson and Wilson, to debategreenvilleonline.com
  3. 3Commentary on the first 2016 presidential debate - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Fox News Republican Debate - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Commentary on the third 2016 presidential debate - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 62026 South Carolina Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7South Carolina Governor Election Winner — Odds & Charts | Prescientprescient.markets
  8. 8South Carolina Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  9. 9https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/south-carolina-governor-winner-2026polymarket.copilot.markets
  10. 10PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
  11. 11Wilson wins GOP nomination for South Carolina governor after...pbs.org
  12. 12Will a Republican Win the South Carolina Governor Race?lines.com

8. Which polling firms are tracking the 2026 South Carolina governor's race, and what is their historical accuracy in the state?

Polling FirmPublic Policy Polling [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Polling DateJuly 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Alan Wilson Win Probability (Decision Desk HQ)77% (as of September 2026) [2]
Public Policy Polling has tracked the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial race. This firm conducted polling in July 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. While the South Carolina gubernatorial election is typically scheduled for November 3, 2026, occurring every four years during midterm cycles [7][6], there is contradictory information regarding the 2026 race. Multiple sources report a 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election featuring Alan Wilson and Jermaine Johnson [8][9][10]; however, the official South Carolina Election Commission's schedule for November 2026 does not include a gubernatorial race [8][9][10].
Forecasts predict a Republican victory despite conflicting election information. Despite the conflicting reports on whether a gubernatorial race is scheduled for 2026, Decision Desk HQ's forecast as of September 2026 predicts Alan Wilson (Republican) has a 77% probability of winning against Jermaine Johnson (Democrat), who has a 23% probability [2]. The provided information does not contain any details regarding the historical accuracy of Public Policy Polling or any other polling firm in the state.
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 South Carolina Governor Pollingvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 South Carolina Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 South Carolina Governor Polling | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  5. 5South Carolina Governor GOP Primary | DDHQ Polling Averagevotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Governor of South Carolina - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Article IV, South Carolina Constitution - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 82026 South Carolina Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  9. 92026 South Carolina gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  10. 10South Carolina Governor Primary Election 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com

9. What do historical voting patterns in South Carolina since 2016 suggest for a statewide Republican versus Democratic contest?

2024 Presidential Election (GOP)58.2% (Source [1])
2022 Gubernatorial Election (GOP)58.04% (Source [1][2][3])
2026 SC GOP Primary Runoff WinnerAlan Wilson with 68.56% (Source [4][5])
South Carolina consistently demonstrates a strong Republican advantage in statewide elections. Historical voting patterns confirm this consistent Republican advantage since 2016, with the state consistently favoring the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1980 and not electing a Democratic governor since 2003 [6][7][8][9][1]. In presidential contests, the GOP secured 54.9% of the vote in 2016, 55.1% in 2020, and 58.2% in 2024 [1].
Gubernatorial contests further underscore the Republican Party's consistent electoral strength. Republican candidates achieved victories with 53.96% of the vote in 2018 and 58.04% in 2022 [1][2][3]. Most recently, in the context of the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election, a Republican primary runoff on June 23, 2026, saw Alan Wilson defeat Pamela Evette, securing 68.56% of the vote [4][5].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Compare Graphsuselectionatlas.org
  2. 22022 Gubernatorial General Election Results - South Carolinauselectionatlas.org
  3. 32018 Gubernatorial General Election Results - South Carolinauselectionatlas.org
  4. 4South Carolina gubernatorial election, 2026 (June 23 Republican...ballotpedia.org
  5. 52026 South Carolina Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Presidential voting trends in South Carolina - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7South Carolina Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin.com270towin.com
  8. 8Historical trends in South Carolina voting demographics - WCIVabcnews4.com
  9. 92024 United States presidential election in South Carolina - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Republican Alan Wilson and Democrat Jermaine Johnson are the nominees [1]. Incumbent Governor Henry McMaster (R) is term-limited, making him ineligible for re-election [1][5][3].
Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, show a Republican victory probability consistently above 90% as of September 2026 [6][7][8][9][10]. Decision Desk HQ forecasts the race as 'Likely Republican,' with Alan Wilson at a 77% win probability against Jermaine Johnson's 23% [11]. Voter registration deadlines from October 2–4 and the start of early voting on October 19 precede Election Day on November 3, 2026 [12].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (12)
  1. 12026 South Carolina gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2South Carolina gubernatorial election, 2026 (June 23 Republican...ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Governor of South Carolina - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 election and voting dates - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Henry McMaster - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6South Carolina Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  7. 7South Carolina Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odd... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  8. 8November 3, 2026: South Carolina Governor winner Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  9. 9South Carolina Governor Election Winner — Odds & Charts | Prescientprescient.markets
  10. 10South Carolina Governor Election Winner 2026 Prediction & Odds - Politics - OG.comog.com
  11. 112026 South Carolina Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  12. 122026 Election Calendar (scVOTES)scvotes.gov