Short Answer

The market expects Alan Wilson to win the 2026 South Carolina Governor election, pricing the probability at 93.4%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's stability is its defining feature, directly reflecting a lopsided polling environment. The contract for a Democratic victory has remained priced at a low probability, consistent with polls showing Republican Alan Wilson with a durable, double-digit lead over Democrat Jermaine Johnson. A mid-October Trafalgar poll placed Wilson ahead by 16 points, while a separate National Public Affairs survey from the same period showed a 10-point lead. These figures have anchored market expectations, preventing any significant upward repricing of Democratic chances.
The market has traded within a narrow band between 3.9% and 7.0%, with no specific news event corresponding to these minor fluctuations. Total volume is low, indicating a settled market consensus around the polling data. The price action suggests traders have priced in a likely Republican victory and see little new information to challenge that assessment ahead of the November 3 election.
  • Since last update (~42d): The market decisively priced a winner, with its probability increasing +88.4pp to 93.4%.
  • Confidence score increased by +2.0pp to 7.0, and the model's edge compressed by +0.5pp.
  • Alan Wilson's model probability decreased by -2.5pp, yet his edge compressed as model_led.
  • Jermaine Johnson's model probability increased by +2.5pp, with edge compressed, model_led.
  • Alan Wilson shows a commanding lead in prediction markets.
  • Decision Desk HQ projects a 74% win probability for Alan Wilson.
  • Prediction markets significantly favor Wilson over traditional polling averages.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Jermaine Johnson 6.8% 6.8% Challenger Jermaine Johnson faces an uphill battle against the incumbent in a deeply conservative state.
Alan Wilson 93.4% 93.2% Incumbent Republican Alan Wilson benefits from high name recognition and strong support in a reliably red state.

Current Context

Alan Wilson holds a strong lead in South Carolina governor polling. As of October 22, 2026, the South Carolina governor’s race remains undecided ahead of Election Day on November 3, 2026. Republican Alan Wilson faces Democrat Jermaine Johnson, with Green Party candidate Walid Hakim and United Citizens candidate Michael Addison also on the ballot [1][2][3]. Wilson is the clear polling favorite, with recent surveys showing leads ranging from 8.6 to 16 points. National Public Affairs Polling, fielded October 13–16, placed Wilson at 51% against Johnson’s 41%. A Trafalgar poll on October 18 reported 52.5% for Wilson and 36.5% for Johnson. Resonance’s survey from September 29–October 3 showed Wilson at 45.17% and Johnson at 35.03% [1][4][2][5]. The October 21 poll average, covering five polls, showed Wilson ahead by 11.5 points, with Wilson at 52.5%, Johnson at 36.5%, minor candidates combined at roughly 6%, and the remainder undecided [1].
Prediction markets also heavily favor Wilson, consistent with historical trends. Polymarket showed Wilson at 93% and Johnson at 7% on October 22. Kalshi reported similar odds at approximately 93.2% for Wilson and 6.8% for Johnson, with Prediction Edge likewise indicating 93%–7% odds [6][7][8]. Polymarket’s contract resolves upon a consensus call from AP, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification; reported volume was about $30,300 [6][7]. Key electoral dates included the March 30 filing deadline, June 9 primaries, and June 23 primary runoffs [3][9][10]. Johnson secured his Democratic primary outright, while Wilson advanced through a Republican runoff after initially trailing Pamela Evette [9][10]. Expert and campaign assessments anticipate a Republican victory. South Carolina GOP chairman Drew McKissick emphasized Wilson’s need to connect conservative priorities to voters. Strategist Joel Sawyer predicted a statewide Republican sweep, and AP noted that Democrats have not won the governorship since 1998 [9][11].
Remaining undecided voters represent the primary source of race uncertainty. Resonance found 15.84% of voters undecided, estimating Johnson would require approximately 82% of these voters to achieve a tie [4][2]. The NPA survey reported a lower 7% undecided, with Wilson’s lead exceeding the poll’s margin of error [4][2].
Sources (11)
  1. 1South Carolina governor polls 2026: Wilson vs. Johnsoncallthemap.com
  2. 2Crossroads 2026: Alan Wilson Retains Double-Digit Lead in S.C. Governor's Race - FITSNewsfitsnews.com
  3. 3South Carolina gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Resonance Media Services October 5, 2026 South Carolina Governor: statewide survey resultsfitsnews.com
  5. 5South Carolina Poll: Andrews Leads Graham Nordone for Senate, Wilson Leads for Governoronpointpolitics.substack.com
  6. 6South Carolina Governor Election Winnerpolymarket.com
  7. 7South Carolina Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Wilson vs. Johnson | Kalshikalshi.com
  8. 82026 South Carolina Governor Election: Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  9. 9What to expect in South Carolina’s state primary runoff | AP Newsapnews.com
  10. 10SC primary 2026: Governor's race, key contests head to runoffs | The Statethestate.com
  11. 11Connect to the Capitol: Race for governor set, Wilson talks campaign aheadwach.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" for a specific party's contract if their candidate wins the South Carolina Governor election. Conversely, it resolves to "No" for a party's contract if their candidate does not win the election. The key date is the general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026. The market specifically resolves based on the winning party of this election.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Alan Wilson $0.93 $0.07 93%
Jermaine Johnson $0.07 $0.94 7%

Market Discussion

The market overwhelmingly favors a Republican victory in the South Carolina Governor race, with Alan Wilson currently holding a 93.2% chance of winning compared to Jermaine Johnson's 6.8%. This strong consensus is supported by a forecasted Republican margin of +11.9% and Wilson's lead in recent polling averages (46.3% to 36.8%), consistent with South Carolina's history of leaning Republican in past presidential elections. Wilson's platform focuses on tax cuts and law enforcement, while Johnson prioritizes healthcare expansion and support for working families.

4. How do prediction market odds on Kalshi and Polymarket compare with traditional polling averages for the Wilson vs. Johnson race?

Alan Wilson Win Probability (Kalshi)93.2%–93.4% (October 22, 2026) [1][2]
Alan Wilson Win Probability (Polymarket)92% (Republican contract) [3][2]
Alan Wilson Polling Average46.6% (three-poll average) [2][4][5][6]
Prediction market odds favor Alan Wilson significantly more than traditional polls. Prediction market odds on Kalshi and Polymarket indicate a significantly higher likelihood of Alan Wilson winning the South Carolina Governor race compared to traditional polling averages [2]. These two prediction markets generally agree closely on their implied probabilities for the candidates [2].
Markets show Wilson with a dominant lead, while polls are closer. As of October 22, 2026, Kalshi priced Alan Wilson at approximately 93.2%–93.4% to win, with Jermaine Johnson at 6.8% [1][2]. Polymarket showed a Republican win probability of 92%, roughly translating to 93% for Wilson and 7% for Johnson [3][2]. In contrast, traditional polling is materially closer, with available polling putting Wilson around 46.6% in a three-poll average, implying approximately a 9-point lead [2][4][5][6].
A substantial difference exists between market implied odds and poll margins. This central comparison highlights a considerable divergence: markets imply an approximate 16-to-1 likelihood of a Wilson win, while polling indicates a competitive but Republican-leaning race [2]. A separate fundamentals-based forecast further supports the market predictions, giving Wilson a 96.7% win probability, which aligns more closely with the market forecasts than with the raw polling margin [2][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1South Carolina Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Wilson vs. Johnson | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2South Carolina Senate Race & SC Governor Race 2026actionnetwork.com
  3. 3South Carolina Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odd... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 42026 South Carolina Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  5. 52026 South Carolina Governor Forecast | Election Odds &...pollsmax.com
  6. 6Jermaine Johnson: 2026 South Carolina Governor Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com

5. What is Jermaine Johnson's most viable path to victory, and what late-breaking events could close the polling gap before November 3, 2026?

Johnson Kalshi Odds~6.8% (October 20-22, 2026) [1]
Wilson's Lead (NPA Poll)10 points (51% to Johnson's 41%) [2]
Johnson Cash On Hand~$136,000 [3][4]
Alan Wilson currently holds a significant lead in the gubernatorial race. As of October 20-22, 2026, market data from Kalshi indicates Wilson is favored at approximately 93.2% to Jermaine Johnson's roughly 6.8% [1]. Polling summaries generally place Johnson around 38%, with the latest NPA poll showing Wilson leading 51% to Johnson's 41% [2]. Johnson faces a significant structural challenge in South Carolina, a state that has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994 [5]. Wilson's lead is concentrated in regions that comprise over three-quarters of the electorate, and the 7% undecided share in the latest NPA poll is smaller than Wilson's 10-point advantage [2][5].
Johnson's most viable path to victory relies on a turnout-and-realignment strategy. This approach aims to consolidate Democratic voters, maximize turnout among Black and urban populations, and attract independents and suburban moderates by focusing on messages of affordability and ethics [6][3]. His platform emphasizes tax relief for working families, property-tax reduction, affordable housing, infrastructure, public safety, and opposition to corruption [6]. However, Johnson is at a practical disadvantage in resources, having raised approximately $867,000 with about $136,000 cash on hand, substantially less than Wilson's roughly $2.5 million raised and nearly $1.7 million cash on hand [3][4]. With early voting having commenced on October 19, there is limited time for a conventional paid-media campaign to close the existing polling gap [3].
Overcoming this double-digit deficit requires unusually strong turnout and specific late-breaking events. Johnson would need an exceptionally robust turnout operation, particularly among Democratic, Black, and young voters, both during early voting and on Election Day [3][4]. Other plausible late-breaking events include a significant controversy involving Wilson, a damaging debate performance, or a sharp affordability or ethics scandal that could nationalize the race [3][4]. Effective earned-media exposure could also enable Johnson to compete despite his financial limitations [3][4]. Any such event would need to sway both undecided voters and soft Wilson supporters, as a routine debate bump is unlikely to erase such a large deficit [3][4]. Third-party candidates Walid Hakim and Michael Addison, currently polling around 1% each, do not offer a sufficient route to victory for Johnson [3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1South Carolina Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Wilson vs. Johnson | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2Crossroads 2026: Alan Wilson Retains Double-Digit Lead...fitsnews.com
  3. 3South Carolina governor's race enters two-week sprintwistv.com
  4. 4SC Republicans and Democrats tout their fundraising...scdailygazette.com
  5. 5South Carolina gubernatorial and lieutenant...ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Policies | Explore Policy Solutions — Make A Differencejohnsonforsc.com

6. How do Alan Wilson's and Jermaine Johnson's respective paths through the 2026 primaries compare in terms of voter enthusiasm and party unity?

Wilson runoff margin38-point margin (218,321 to 100,123 votes) [1][2]
Wilson runoff turnoutJust over 10% [1][2]
Johnson primary votersRoughly 221,000 [3][4][5][6]
Alan Wilson's Republican primary campaign navigated a competitive field and runoff. His path to nomination involved a competitive six-candidate primary, which was followed by a decisive runoff where he defeated his opponent by a 38-point margin [1][2]. This process generated visibly energized crowds and intense grassroots engagement, though it necessitated unifying voters from several defeated campaigns after a contentious, high-energy primary cycle [1][2][3][5][6]. Wilson's strategy to address this challenge included avoiding alienation of rivals' voters, referring to opponents as "competitors," and maintaining a unifying tone to prepare for consolidating support post-runoff [1][2].
Jermaine Johnson's Democratic nomination path secured outright victory. He avoided a runoff, leading to clearer immediate party unity [3][4][5][6]. Johnson garnered the support of roughly 221,000 primary voters, securing nearly 60% of the total vote [3][4][5][6]. While his campaign reportedly generated voter excitement and mobilization, independent evidence of unusually intense grassroots enthusiasm was less prominent compared to the Republican contest [3][4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Wilson wins big in GOP gubernatorial runoff racecharlestoncitypaper.com
  2. 2Republican Gubernatorial Primary Runoff | Season 2026pbs.org
  3. 32026 South Carolina Democratic Governor Primary Results & Winner | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  4. 4Early voting is still Happening! Last day...instagram.com
  5. 5ELECTION 2026: Jermaine Johnson wins Democratic...facebook.com
  6. 6State Rep. Jermaine Johnson won the Democratic...facebook.com

7. What demographic data is available from recent polls on the composition of undecided voters in the 2026 South Carolina governor's race?

SC General Election Undecided DemographicsUnavailable [1]
GOP Primary Undecided (Age 18-29, May 2026)11.5% [2]
GOP Primary Overall Undecided (June 2026)8.3% [3]
Demographic breakdowns for undecided voters in the 2026 South Carolina general election are largely unavailable. Published data does not include demographic details for undecided voters in the South Carolina governor's race, with one aggregator explicitly listing age, education, race, and gender crosstabs as not available [1]. Similarly, October 2026 general election polls that have been reviewed also do not expose demographic breakdowns for undecided voters in accessible snippets [4]. However, some recent polls of likely Republican primary voters did provide limited demographic information for undecided voters.
Specific Republican primary polls provided limited demographic insights into undecided voters. A Trafalgar poll conducted from May 21–24, 2026, among likely Republican primary voters, reported 5.6% of voters were undecided overall. This poll indicated that 11.5% of those aged 18–29 were undecided, and 6.6% of women surveyed were undecided [2]. A subsequent Trafalgar poll, fielded from June 5–7, 2026, found 8.3% of likely Republican primary voters were undecided overall, with 14.3% undecided among individuals aged 30–39 [3].
Additional primary polls reported overall undecided figures without demographic breakdowns. An April 2026 Starboard Communications poll indicated that 28% of likely Republican primary voters were unsure or refused to state a preference [5]. A March 2026 Quantus Insights poll found an even higher percentage, with 38% of likely Republican primary voters undecided on the initial ballot [6]. While the South Carolina Policy Council released a demographic crosstabs PDF for its February 2026 primary poll, specific figures detailing undecided voters by demographic group are not exposed in the available search evidence [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1South Carolina Governor 2026 Polls — Johnson vs Wilson — PoliAggpoliagg.com
  2. 2South Carolina Governor GOP Primary Pollthetrafalgargroup.org
  3. 3South Carolina Governor GOP Primary Pollthetrafalgargroup.org
  4. 4South Carolina ETVfacebook.com
  5. 5South Carolina Governor's Race: Polling Drought Endsfitsnews.com
  6. 6South Carolina 2026 Republican Governor Primarypolls.quantusinsights.org
  7. 7Crosstabs: Demographicsassets.nationbuilder.com

8. What polling data and expert forecasts underpin Alan Wilson's commanding lead in the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial race?

Prediction Market Lead93–94% to win (as of October 22, 2026) [1][2][3]
Latest Public Poll Lead51% to 41% (10-point lead in October 13–16 survey) [4][5]
PoliAgg Model Forecast99% victory with +23.6 point margin [6]
Alan Wilson holds a commanding lead for South Carolina Governor in 2026. Prediction markets indicate a 93–94% chance of victory for Alan Wilson in the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial race as of October 22, 2026 [1][2][3]. Public polling also supports Wilson's strong position, with an October 13–16 survey and an October 21 report showing him ahead of Jermaine Johnson by 51% to 41%, representing a 10-point margin [4][5].
Recent polling and models consistently favor Wilson, though with caveats. Earlier polling consistently favored Republicans with smaller margins, showing Wilson with 8- to 10-point leads from July through early October [6][7][8]. The PoliAgg model further forecasts a Republican victory for Wilson at 99%, with a central margin of +23.6 points [6]. However, this model explicitly cautions that its estimate carries unusual uncertainty due to the limited number of recent polls available [6].
Prediction markets show greater confidence than polls, citing the state's GOP lean. The prediction market's strong forecast is significantly more bullish than the polling average, implying about a 16-to-1 favorite status compared to the 8- to 10-point leads found in reported polls [7]. Analysts attribute this discrepancy to South Carolina's strong Republican baseline, the GOP's long statewide dominance, and reduced uncertainty following Wilson's secure Republican nomination [7][8]. A key caveat is that the market is not a poll, and the available survey record is sparse, with one polling-average source listing only three surveys; market prices can also incorporate structural partisan assumptions beyond observed vote margins [1][7][3].
Sources (8)
  1. 1South Carolina Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Wilson vs. Johnson | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2South Carolina Governor winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  3. 3South Carolina Governor Election Winner: Live Odds & Probability | Parideskparidesk.com
  4. 4South Carolina Governor Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  5. 5New NPA polling shows Republican gubernatorial...facebook.com
  6. 6South Carolina Governor 2026 Polls — Johnson vs Wilson — PoliAggpoliagg.com
  7. 72026 South Carolina Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  8. 8South Carolina Senate Race & SC Governor Race 2026actionnetwork.com

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Alan Wilson, the Republican candidate, holds a strong position in the South Carolina gubernatorial race. Prediction markets show Wilson as a clear favorite, with Kalshi implying 93.2% and Polymarket approximately 93% as of October 22, 2026 [1][2]. Decision Desk HQ projects a 74% win probability for Wilson and a 26% probability for Jermaine Johnson [3]. Polling consistently favors Wilson by roughly 10–12 points, with Call the Map reporting a five-poll average of Wilson +11.5 as of October 21 [4]. Recent polls listed Wilson +16 (Trafalgar, October 18) and +10 (National Public Affairs, October 16) [4]. The structural backdrop is strongly Republican; South Carolina has not elected a Democratic governor since 1998, and race ratings classify the contest as Solid/Safe Republican [5][6]. Wilson secured the Republican nomination in the June 23 runoff with 68.56% [7].
Despite Wilson's lead, potential bearish catalysts for his campaign include a national midterm environment unfavorable to Republicans, polling error, or shifts in Democratic turnout and enthusiasm [4][3][5]. Any late-breaking scandal or campaign disruption could also influence the race [4][3][5]. Decision Desk HQ's 74% forecast is materially lower than exchange prices near 93%, which implies market sensitivity to downside news [3]. Wilson appears priced as a roughly 93% favorite on exchange markets, suggesting limited upside from ordinary favorable news [1][2][3]. The larger repricing risk is a late move toward Johnson if polls compress, Republican turnout weakens, or national conditions deteriorate [1][2][3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (7)
  1. 1South Carolina Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Wilson vs. Johnson | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2South Carolina Governor Election Winnerpolymarket.com
  3. 32026 South Carolina Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4South Carolina governor polls 2026: Wilson vs. Johnsoncallthemap.com
  5. 5What to expect in South Carolina’s state primary | AP Newsapnews.com
  6. 62026 South Carolina electionsen.wikipedia.org
  7. 7Statewide GOP runoff voters choose nominees for governor, AG, agriculture commissioner | News | indexjournal.comindexjournal.com