Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Andy Beshear is most likely to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~90d): Gretchen Whitmer's model and market probability each sharply declined by 37.0pp.
- Kamala Harris's model conviction rose 28.1pp, compressing the edge versus the market.
- Wes Moore's market probability rose 19.0pp, widening the edge against his 16.9pp model gain.
- New outcomes James Talarico, Amy Klobuchar, and Shawn Fain were added to the market.
- Andy Beshear and Rahm Emanuel show leading probabilities; Jim Clyburn's endorsement may boost Beshear.
- Gavin Newsom's strategy may adapt to the DNC's proposed early primary calendar.
- Josh Shapiro's significant fundraising prowess and political influence position him strongly.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 61.0% | 52.0% | No specific research information was provided for this candidate. |
| Kamala Harris | 76.0% | 68.6% | As the current Vice President, she holds the highest national political office. |
| Wes Moore | 66.0% | 49.3% | His role as Governor of Maryland provides executive experience in state leadership. |
| Gavin Newsom | 83.0% | 77.6% | Serving as Governor of California provides a large platform and executive leadership experience. |
| Tim Walz | 11.0% | 3.4% | As a current governor, he has executive experience and a demonstrated ability to win statewide elections. |
Current Context
No major Democratic candidates have declared for the 2028 nomination. As of August 6, 2026, no candidates have formally declared their candidacy for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination [^][^]. While dozens of individuals have filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) for president in 2028, no major Democratic candidates had announced a campaign as of August 2025 [^]. The primary process is expected to be competitive and open, without an incumbent or a clear front-runner [^]. Prominent potential contenders frequently mentioned in analysis and polling include Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Mark Kelly, and Andy Beshear [^][^][^].
Prediction markets and traditional polls show different front-runners. A notable discrepancy exists between traditional polling, which often favors Kamala Harris due to name recognition, and prediction markets, which frequently rank Gavin Newsom as a leading potential nominee [^][^][^]. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has not finalized its presidential candidate field but approved a proposed early state nominating calendar for 2028 [^][^][^]. This proposed early window includes South Carolina (January 22), Nevada (February 1), New Hampshire (February 8), New Mexico (February 15), Michigan (February 22), and Virginia (February 29) [^][^][^]. The 2028 U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, with key milestones typically including primary elections in the first half of 2028, party conventions, and the Electoral College vote in December 2028 [^][^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market is inactive and has established a narrow trading range between 73.0% and 78.0%. The price has moved sideways since inception, starting at 73.0% and drifting to a current price of 74.0% as of early August 2026. There have been no significant price movements or breakouts. The stability of the price corresponds directly to the lack of fundamental developments, as no major Democratic candidates have formally declared a campaign for the 2028 nomination.
Volume is exceptionally light, with only 36 contracts traded over the market's lifetime. The recent sample data points show zero volume, indicating the market is dormant. This low level of activity suggests a near-total absence of trader conviction or new capital entering the market. The price stability is a consequence of this inactivity, not a reflection of a strong consensus formed by active trading.
The chart suggests market sentiment is in a holding pattern, awaiting a catalyst. The high probability in the mid-70s indicates a baseline expectation that a competitive primary with major candidates is highly likely. The 73% level has acted as a floor and the 78% level as a ceiling, but these are more indicative of the market's pre-news equilibrium than technically significant support and resistance levels. The price will likely remain range-bound until a candidate declares or significant polling data emerges.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
📉 August 05, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 64.0% to 54.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point drop in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's prediction market price on August 5, 2026, was the release of an August 2026 CNN/SSRS poll. This poll indicated her net favorability fell by 10 percentage points, leaving her 10 points underwater nationally [^][^][^][^]. Such a significant decline in public favorability would logically reduce her perceived viability or willingness to run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, directly impacting market odds. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as the provided information lacks specific posts or viral narratives coinciding with the price movement.
Outcome: Elissa Slotkin
📈 August 03, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 38.0% to 47.0%
What happened: The research indicates that there is no credible reporting of a 9.0 percentage point 'spike' for Elissa Slotkin on August 3, 2026, within the context of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination market [^]. Instead, the reference to a "9.0pp spike" appears to originate from 2024 Senate polling data [^]. As such, there is no evidence from social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors to explain a price movement that is not substantiated by the provided information. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this non-existent price movement.
Outcome: Amy Klobuchar
📈 July 27, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 9.0%
What happened: No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives promoting Amy Klobuchar's 2028 presidential prospects was identified on or around July 27, 2026. Traditional news on that date focused on her campaign for Governor of Minnesota and the rollout of her healthcare plan, which she announced in January 2026 [^][^][^]. This news indicates her focus was on the gubernatorial race, rather than a presidential bid [^]. Based on the available research, the primary driver for the 8.0 percentage point price spike remains unclear, and social media activity appears irrelevant.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if the named individual runs for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, and NO if they do not. The key deadline is January 1, 2028, which is the maximum payout date. No specific settlement conditions or further definitions of what constitutes "running" are provided within the market description.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Beshear | $0.84 | $0.20 | 84% |
| Rahm Emanuel | $0.85 | $0.19 | 84% |
| Gavin Newsom | $0.83 | $0.19 | 83% |
| Pete Buttigieg | $0.83 | $0.19 | 81% |
| Josh Shapiro | $0.77 | $0.25 | 77% |
| Kamala Harris | $0.77 | $0.24 | 76% |
| Ro Khanna | $0.77 | $0.25 | 75% |
| Cory Booker | $0.77 | $0.26 | 74% |
| J.B. Pritzker | $0.77 | $0.28 | 73% |
| Mark Kelly | $0.70 | $0.31 | 69% |
| Jon Ossoff | $0.67 | $0.35 | 67% |
| Wes Moore | $0.65 | $0.36 | 66% |
| Chris Murphy | $0.69 | $0.37 | 63% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.60 | $0.44 | 61% |
| Mitch Landrieu | $0.62 | $0.41 | 59% |
| Elissa Slotkin | $0.51 | $0.54 | 46% |
| Jared Polis | $0.39 | $0.62 | 39% |
| Raphael Warnock | $0.36 | $0.65 | 35% |
| Chris Van Hollen | $0.32 | $0.72 | 32% |
| Ruben Gallego | $0.32 | $0.70 | 32% |
| Dean Phillips | $0.27 | $0.77 | 29% |
| Phil Murphy | $0.28 | $0.74 | 28% |
| Abigail Spanberger | $0.27 | $0.74 | 27% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | $0.25 | $0.76 | 24% |
| Stephen A. Smith | $0.23 | $0.79 | 23% |
| John Fetterman | $0.22 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Roy Cooper | $0.22 | $0.80 | 19% |
| Hunter Biden | $0.21 | $0.81 | 18% |
| Mikie Sherrill | $0.21 | $0.83 | 18% |
| Mark Cuban | $0.19 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Jon Stewart | $0.17 | $0.85 | 15% |
| James Talarico | $0.15 | $0.91 | 14% |
| Tim Walz | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Amy Klobuchar | $0.09 | $0.97 | 9% |
| Michelle Obama | $0.09 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Barack Obama | $0.04 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Hillary Clinton | $0.05 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Shawn Fain | $0.39 | $0.64 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of August 6, 2026, no major candidate has officially declared their intention to run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, though many individuals had filed with the Federal Election Commission by August 2025 [^][^]. Prominent figures frequently cited as potential contenders include California Governor Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro [^][^][^]. While traditional polling data often ranks Kamala Harris as a frontrunner, prediction markets currently show Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff as leading the field, often discounting high-name-recognition candidates in favor of those perceived to have stronger emerging political narratives [^][^][^][^][^].
5. What evidence from Pete Buttigieg's tenure as Transportation Secretary and 2020 campaign performance suggests his viability for a 2028 run?
| Federal Experience | Transportation Secretary (2021-2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2020 Campaign Weakness | Difficulty with Black voters and key Democratic constituencies [^][^][^][^][^] |
| 2028 Contender Status | Leading potential nominee (as of August 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
Pete Buttigieg's experience highlights his capacity for large-scale federal operations and campaigning. As Transportation Secretary from 2021 to 2025, he managed the implementation of the bipartisan infrastructure law, expanded airline passenger rights, addressed supply chain disruptions, and enacted rail safety regulations [^]. Supporters point to this record as proof of his ability to manage extensive federal programs [^]. His 2020 presidential campaign also demonstrated his effectiveness as a disciplined and articulate debater, a successful fundraiser, and an organizer capable of building a national campaign from the ground up [^].
However, past voter support challenges persist, yet Buttigieg remains a leading contender for 2028. His 2020 campaign revealed persistent difficulties in securing significant support from Black voters and other crucial Democratic constituencies [^][^][^][^][^], which could present a hurdle for future presidential aspirations. Despite these past challenges, Buttigieg has signaled potential interest in a 2028 presidential run by strategically declining to seek Senate or Gubernatorial positions in Michigan in 2026, a move analysts interpret as maintaining flexibility for a national campaign [^][^]. As of August 2026, he is identified as a leading potential contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in prediction markets and national polls, though his specific viability remains speculative without active campaigning [^][^][^][^][^].
6. How do the policy platforms and fundraising networks of governors Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro compare ahead of the 2028 primary season?
| Josh Shapiro Fundraising | Over $60 million since 2023 (for 2026 reelection) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Gretchen Whitmer PAC Cash | Approximately $2.6 million cash on hand [^][^] |
| 2028 Presidential Campaign Status | Neither has formally announced as of August 2026 [^][^] |
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro demonstrates significant fundraising prowess and political influence. He has cultivated a substantial state-level fundraising network, raising over $60 million for his 2026 reelection campaign since 2023 [^][^][^][^]. This success is bolstered by strong national and mega-donor backing, which also enables him to actively support Democratic congressional candidates [^][^][^][^][^]. Shapiro strategically leverages his position in swing-state Pennsylvania to influence broader Democratic electoral efforts, highlighting the state's critical role in upcoming elections [^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, he is frequently mentioned as a potential Democratic presidential candidate for 2028 [^].
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer maintains a PAC, but disavowed a 2028 bid. She operates a federal leadership PAC holding approximately $2.6 million in cash [^][^]. Despite earlier ambiguous remarks, Whitmer has since indicated that she does not intend to run for president in 2028 [^][^]. As of August 2026, neither Governor Shapiro nor Governor Whitmer has formally announced a presidential campaign for 2028 [^][^]. The provided information does not detail the specific policy platforms of either governor.
7. How might the DNC's proposed 2028 early primary calendar influence the campaign strategies of frontrunners like Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris?
| DNC 2028 Early Primary Calendar Vote | Mid-August 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom Prediction Market Probability | 18%-24% (as of Aug 6, 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
| Kamala Harris Prediction Market Probability | 7%-9% (as of Aug 6, 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
The DNC proposed a diverse early primary calendar for 2028. The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has put forward a proposed early primary calendar for 2028, scheduling South Carolina for January 22, Nevada for February 1, Michigan for February 22, and Virginia for February 29 [^][^]. The full Democratic National Committee is expected to vote on this proposal in mid-August 2026 [^][^]. This calendar is designed to promote geographic and demographic diversity, thereby requiring frontrunners to build broad coalitions across a variety of voter groups in these pivotal early states [^][^][^].
Gavin Newsom leads Kamala Harris in 2028 nomination prediction markets. As of August 6, 2026, prediction markets position Gavin Newsom as the leading contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with implied probabilities typically ranging from 18% to 24% [^][^][^][^]. Kamala Harris consistently shows significantly lower implied probabilities on these platforms, often between 7% and 9%, despite her lead in some national opinion polls [^][^][^][^]. Neither Newsom nor Harris had officially launched their campaigns for the 2028 nomination as of August 2026 [^][^].
Early primaries will demand diverse coalition strategies from candidates. The proposed early primary schedule will necessitate that prospective candidates, such as Newsom and Harris, develop early campaign strategies focused on engaging diverse voter groups and fostering coalitions across the varied demographics found in states like South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, and Virginia [^][^][^].
8. What are the key dates for FEC fundraising disclosures and when is the first reliable 2028 primary polling expected from states like South Carolina and New Hampshire?
| 2027 Year-End FEC Report Due | January 31, 2028 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| South Carolina Democratic Primary | January 22, 2028 [^][^][^] |
| New Hampshire Democratic Primary | February 8, 2028 [^][^][^] |
Federal Election Commission (FEC) sets specific fundraising report deadlines. Candidate committees generally file quarterly fundraising reports on April 15, July 15, and October 15. The annual Year-End report is due by January 31 of the subsequent year [^][^]. For the 2028 election cycle, these deadlines mean that 2027 quarterly filings are set for April 15, July 15, and October 15, 2027. The final 2027 Year-End report will be due on January 31, 2028 [^][^].
Early state primary dates are established for the 2028 cycle. The Democratic National Committee has scheduled the South Carolina primary for January 22, 2028, and the New Hampshire primary for February 8, 2028 [^][^][^]. Reliable state-level primary polling for these initial states is anticipated to increase significantly in 2027, the year directly preceding the primaries [^]. While some early 2028 primary polling has been released, such as a University of New Hampshire poll in late July 2026, these surveys are considered largely speculative, primarily measuring name recognition rather than active candidate viability this far in advance [^][^].
9. Which key endorsements from party leaders or progressive organizations could serve as major catalysts for dark horse candidates like Wes Moore or Andy Beshear?
| Jim Clyburn's 2028 Endorsement | Open to making an endorsement, in contact with Wes Moore and Andy Beshear [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Wes Moore's 2028 Stance | Downplayed speculation, focusing on 2026 reelection [^][^] |
| Progressive Endorsements 2028 | No specific national endorsements made yet [^][^][^][^][^] |
U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn's endorsement could significantly boost dark horse candidates. Clyburn, an influential figure in Democratic presidential primaries, is open to making a 2028 presidential endorsement and has engaged with potential candidates such as Wes Moore and Andy Beshear. While he has interacted with both, he has not yet signaled a favorite [^][^][^].
Candidates Wes Moore and Andy Beshear show differing levels of 2028 interest. Maryland Governor Wes Moore has downplayed speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, indicating that his current focus remains on his 2026 reelection campaign [^][^]. Conversely, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has been actively building his national political profile in preparation for a potential 2028 presidential campaign [^][^].
Progressive organizations are not currently endorsing 2028 presidential candidates. Groups like Indivisible and the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) are prioritizing their 2026 mid-term primary programs. They have not yet announced any specific national endorsements for the 2028 presidential race, meaning there is no current information to suggest their endorsements could serve as catalysts for dark horse candidates at this time [^][^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2028 presidential election cycle features several identified catalysts. The November 2026 midterm elections serve as a major potential event [^][^]. Candidate declarations are expected in late 2026, followed by the start of primary debates in mid-2027, and the first primary contests in early 2028 [^]. The general election is scheduled for November 7, 2028 [^][^]. As of August 2026, the potential Democratic field for the 2028 presidential nomination is wide, lacking a dominant front-runner. Key names include California Governor Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and several governors and senators such as Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore, JB Pritzker, Andy Beshear, Gretchen Whitmer, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Mark Kelly [^][^][^]. As of August 2025, 39 individuals had filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential election [^].
Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, are actively pricing the 2028 cycle [^] . These markets indicate a highly fragmented Democratic field where Newsom is often priced as a leading candidate for the nomination, though not dominant [^][^]. Current market sentiment favors Democratic prospects for both the presidency and Congress compared to Republicans [^]. Other bullish and bearish market catalysts for 2028 include current administration performance, major geopolitical events such as the 2026 military operation in Iran, and economic indicators like CPI and unemployment [^][^]. Performance in early primary debates will also act as a catalyst [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2028
- Closes: January 01, 2028
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2028 presidential election cycle features several identified catalysts.
- Trigger: The November 2026 midterm elections serve as a major potential event [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Candidate declarations are expected in late 2026, followed by the start of primary debates in mid-2027, and the first primary contests in early 2028 [^] .
- Trigger: The general election is scheduled for November 7, 2028 [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
