2028 Democratic Presidential ticket
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Gavin Newsom and James Talarico to be the 2028 Democratic Presidential ticket, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
Based on the chart data for the "2028 Democratic Presidential ticket" market, the price has traded in a narrow range between 1.0% and 5.0%. The market began at a 1.0% probability and experienced its most significant movement with a sharp increase to its current price of 5.0%. Since this spike, the price action has been sideways, holding steady at this new, higher level. The cause for this specific price increase cannot be determined from the available information, as no external context or news was provided that would coincide with the movement.
The trading volume in this market is exceptionally low, with only 24 contracts traded in total across all data points. This low volume, or thin liquidity, suggests that the market has limited participation and conviction. Price changes, including the notable jump to 5.0%, could be the result of a very small number of trades and may not reflect a broad shift in market consensus. The lack of significant trading activity indicates that conviction behind the current price is weak.
From a technical perspective, the market has established a clear support level at 1.0% and a resistance level at 5.0%. The price has not broken above or below this range. Overall, the market sentiment suggests that traders view this particular Democratic ticket as a long-shot possibility for 2028. The 5.0% probability, while low, reflects a non-zero chance, but the minimal trading volume implies the market is in a very early, speculative phase with little active interest or strong opinion from traders at this time.
- Gavin Newsom attracts significant early Hollywood donor support for 2028.
- Kamala Harris holds a central role as incumbent VP in party outreach.
- Josh Shapiro is actively growing his donor network and is a popular surrogate.
- Gretchen Whitmer leads a critical swing state and operates a federal PAC.
- Future federal PAC growth data for 2028 candidates remains unavailable.
- Moderate Democratic PACs show stronger early fundraising than progressive groups.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 5.0% | 8.1% | Newsom's executive experience and Ocasio-Cortez's progressive appeal could form a dynamic ticket. |
| Jon Ossoff and Andy Beshear | 4.0% | 6.5% | Ossoff offers youth and Senate experience, while Beshear brings executive success from a challenging state. |
| Gavin Newsom and James Talarico | 5.5% | 8.9% | Newsom provides executive leadership, paired with Talarico's progressive energy and appeal to a younger base. |
| Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro | 5.0% | 8.1% | A ticket combining Newsom's California leadership with Shapiro's successful governorship in a key swing state. |
| Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | 8.1% | Newsom's executive background and Buttigieg's national profile and policy expertise create a strong ticket. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This contract resolves to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic presidential nominee and Mark Kelly is the Democratic vice presidential nominee in the 2028 election, as verified by the Democratic Party, with the order of names being critical. If any single component of this combination becomes impossible or resolves to "No," the entire contract immediately resolves to "No." The market opened on April 17, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, and closes when the outcome occurs, or by November 7, 2028, at 10:00 AM EST, with an early close possible if conditions are satisfied or become impossible.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom and James Talarico | $0.06 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Gavin Newsom and Elissa Slotkin | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Gavin Newsom and Wes Moore | $0.04 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Jon Ossoff and Andy Beshear | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Gavin Newsom and Ruben Gallego | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Andy Beshear | $0.04 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gretchen Whitmer | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mark Kelly | $0.05 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg | $0.03 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ruben Gallego | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Wes Moore | $0.03 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.05 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Jon Ossoff and Gretchen Whitmer | $0.05 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score34High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score75Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. Why is future federal PAC growth data unavailable?
| Data Availability | Q1 2025 - Q4 2026 federal PAC growth data is not yet available as these are future reporting periods [1], [2], [3], [4] |
|---|---|
| Federal PAC Examples | Gavin Newsom's "Campaign for Democracy PAC" and Gretchen Whitmer's "Fight Like Hell PAC" are federal PACs [1], [3], [2], [4] |
| Josh Shapiro PAC Status | "Shapiro for Pennsylvania" references state-level campaign finance, not federal PACs [5], [6], [7] |
Future financial data for 2028 Democratic candidates is not yet available. The requested financial data, specifically quarter-over-quarter growth in individual donor contributions and cash-on-hand for potential 2028 Democratic candidates' federal PACs between Q1 2025 and Q4 2026, cannot be provided. Campaign finance reports are filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) after the conclusion of their respective reporting periods. As Q1 2025 through Q4 2026 are future quarters, the corresponding financial data has not yet been generated or reported to the FEC [1], [2], [3], [4]. For example, data for Q1 2025 would typically be filed by April 15, 2025, and data for Q4 2026 by January 31, 2027.
Federal PACs were identified for Newsom and Whitmer, but Shapiro's appears state-level. Based on available sources, Gavin Newsom's "Campaign for Democracy PAC" (FEC Committee ID C00836320) and Gretchen Whitmer's "Fight Like Hell PAC" (FEC Committee ID C00842104) are identified as federal PACs registered with and reporting to the FEC [1], [3], [2], [4]. However, the information provided for Josh Shapiro's "Shapiro for Pennsylvania" primarily references state-level campaign finance activity and reports filed with the Pennsylvania Department of State, rather than federal PAC filings with the FEC [5], [6], [7]. This distinction would prevent a direct comparison with federal PACs, even if future financial data were accessible.
Sources (7)
- 1FEC Disclosure Form 3X for Campaign For Democracy PACdocquery.fec.gov
- 2FEC Disclosure Form 3X for Fight Like Hell PACdocquery.fec.gov
- 3CAMPAIGN FOR DEMOCRACY PAC - committee overview | FECfec.gov
- 4FIGHT LIKE HELL PAC - committee overview | FECfec.gov
- 5Shapiro’s campaign reports $10 million raised in Q1yahoo.com
- 6Shapiro raises $10M – and other takeaways from Pennsylvania’s newest campaign finance reports - City & State Pennsylvaniacityandstatepa.com
- 7Campaign Finance Online Filingcampaignfinanceonline.pa.gov
6. Who Are the Top Campaign Surrogates for 2026 Midterms?
| Anticipated Democratic Surrogate | Vice President Kamala Harris (expected to travel extensively [1]) |
|---|---|
| Anticipated Republican Surrogate | Former President Donald Trump (draws large crowds, focuses on swing states [1]) |
| Highlighted Democratic Star | Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (popular on the campaign trail [2]) |
High-profile political figures will be crucial campaign surrogates in 2026 swing states. During the 2026 midterm elections, federal and gubernatorial candidates in key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada are expected to heavily rely on high-profile political figures [1], [3]. Democrats are anticipated to deploy Vice President Kamala Harris, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, and former First Ladies Michelle Obama and Jill Biden to headline numerous public events. Their efforts will aim to drive turnout and engagement for the party [1], [3].
Vice President Harris and Governor Shapiro lead Democratic surrogate efforts. Vice President Kamala Harris is projected to be a central Democratic figure, continuing her extensive travel to decisive swing states, mirroring her engagement in the 2024 election [1]. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is identified as a particularly "popular on the campaign trail" surrogate for Harris and other Democrats, indicating significant demand for his appearances, especially within his home state [2]. He is also recognized as one of President Biden's "campaign trail star surrogates" [4]. Other consistently popular Democratic surrogates known for drawing crowds and driving engagement include former President Barack Obama, former First Lady Michelle Obama, and former President Bill Clinton, all of whom actively campaigned in 2024 [3], [5]. First Lady Jill Biden has also undertaken a significant surrogate role, conducting campaign swings for Democratic candidates [6], [4]. On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump is expected to be a highly sought-after surrogate due to his proven ability to draw large crowds and motivate his base. His historical focus on crucial swing states underscores their strategic importance to his political agenda, positioning him as a vital asset for Republican federal and gubernatorial candidates in 2026, should he not be running himself [1]. The continued high stakes in these battleground states ensure that figures with strong partisan appeal will remain essential for both parties in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms.
Sources (6)
- 1How Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and their running mates are dividing time between the 7 swing statesnbcnews.com
- 2Josh Shapiro is popular on the campaign trail for Harris and other Democratsinquirer.com
- 3Harris turns to high-profile surrogates in campaign's final days to drive turnoutnews3lv.com
- 4Ranking Biden’s campaign trail star surrogatesdigital-dev.thehill.com
- 5A big difference between the two campaigns: Heavyweight surrogatesmsnbc.com
- 6Jill Biden takes on new surrogate role with first campaign swing for Harriscnn.com
7. Which Democratic Faction Leads 2025-2026 Early Fundraising?
| New Democrat Coalition Action Fund Fundraising | Approximately $2,500,000 (2025-2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC Fundraising | Approximately $1,800,000 (2025-2026) [1] |
| Early Fundraising Momentum Leader | New Democrat Coalition Action Fund [1] |
Moderate Democratic PAC shows stronger early fundraising than progressives for 2025-2026. An analysis of early fundraising totals for the 2025-2026 election cycle reveals that the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund has garnered approximately $2,500,000. In contrast, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC has recorded fundraising totals of approximately $1,800,000 for the same period [1]. These figures represent the initial financial positioning of each ideological wing as the new election cycle commences following the 2024 election.
This financial disparity suggests a stronger position for the party's moderate wing. Based on these fundraising totals, the moderate wing of the Democratic Party, as represented by the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund, shows more momentum entering the 2025-2026 period. The higher fundraising by the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund suggests a stronger financial foundation and potentially broader donor support early in the cycle, which would favor a moderate type of Democratic candidate for a 2028 Vice Presidential pick, such as a Beshear or Shapiro type. Conversely, the lower early fundraising for the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC indicates less initial financial momentum for the progressive wing, suggesting an AOC-type VP candidate would face a more challenging path to significant financial backing in the immediate post-2024 environment.
8. Which Democratic Candidates Are Attracting 2028 Presidential Donor Support?
| Gavin Newsom Donor Support | Hollywood donors aligning for 2028 White House bid [1] |
|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro Donor Activity | Growing donor network for 2028 preparation [2] |
| Other Candidate Endorsements | No early 2028 presidential endorsements from Democracy Alliance for Gretchen Whitmer, George Soros, or Reid Hoffman [3] |
Hollywood donors are aligning early with Gavin Newsom's 2028 aspirations. California Governor Gavin Newsom is attracting significant early financial backing, with Hollywood donors reportedly lining up to support his anticipated White House bid [1]. This indicates an initial wave of support and endorsements from a notable donor community as the 2028 Democratic presidential cycle begins to take shape.
Josh Shapiro is building his donor network, but specific details are pending. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is actively developing his donor base in preparation for the 2028 election cycle [2]. However, current information does not detail specific first public endorsements or major fundraisers from his network, nor does it name individual donors. The available research also lacks information regarding major donors or donor networks making first public endorsements or hosting significant 2028-cycle fundraisers for Gretchen Whitmer. Furthermore, there is no mention of specific activities related to the 2028 presidential race from organizations like the Democracy Alliance or individuals such as George Soros or Reid Hoffman [3].
9. What is the Democratic outlook for state legislative seats in 2026?
| California Democratic Control | Supermajorities in both legislative chambers (Assembly: 62/80, Senate: 32/40) [1] |
|---|---|
| Michigan 2026 Election Scope | All 110 House seats and all 38 Senate seats contested [2] |
| Pennsylvania Legislative Control | Democrats hold slim majority in House, Republicans control Senate [3] |
Predicting 2026 state legislative seat changes for Democrats is currently impossible as these elections have not yet occurred [3]. In California, Democrats hold commanding supermajorities for the 2025-26 session, securing 62 of 80 Assembly seats and 32 of 40 Senate seats [1]. All 80 State Assembly seats and half of the State Senate seats (20 of 40) are scheduled for election in 2026 [4]. Given the state's strong Democratic leaning, the party is not expected to experience substantial net seat losses [1]. Conversely, Kentucky presents a formidable challenge for Democrats, as Republicans maintain strong supermajorities in both the House and Senate [3]. All 100 House seats and 19 of the 38 Senate seats will be contested in 2026 [2]. Significant net gains for Democrats in Kentucky are considered difficult to achieve due to the state's strong Republican lean [3].
Michigan and Pennsylvania present highly competitive legislative battlegrounds. In Michigan, Democrats currently hold slender majorities in both the House and Senate, which will be vigorously defended in the 2026 elections [3]. All 110 House seats and all 38 Senate seats in Michigan will be on the ballot [2]. Pennsylvania's legislative landscape is characterized by a divided government, with Democrats holding a narrow majority in the House and Republicans controlling the Senate [3]. All 203 House seats and 25 of the 50 Senate seats are up for election in 2026 [5], making these contests particularly crucial for determining the future balance of power [3].
Sources (5)
- 1California State Legislature, 2025–26 sessionen.wikipedia.org
- 22026 United States state legislative electionsen.wikipedia.org
- 3Handicapping The 2026 State Legislative Map: A First Look - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
- 4California State Assembly elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5Pennsylvania House of Representatives elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
