Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the US to ban CBDC in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has experienced a significant upward trend, with the probability of a US CBDC ban in 2026 rising from a low of 17.0% to a current price of 48.0%. The most dramatic movement was a 26.0 percentage point spike on May 06, 2026, which saw the price jump from 21.0% to 47.0%. According to the provided context, this sharp increase occurred despite recent reports that legislative efforts in Congress had "fell short." The market's price action seems to be disconnected from or ahead of the publicly available news regarding the progress of bills like H.R. 1919, which is reported to have passed the House but has not become law.
The total trading volume of 9,127 contracts indicates a moderate level of market participation and conviction over the life of the contract. The chart's price action suggests an initial support level around the 17.0% mark, where the market began. After the spike, the price has consolidated in the 47.0%-48.0% range, which appears to be forming a new support level. The market's peak of 56.0% represents the current resistance level that traders have so far been unwilling to push beyond.
Overall, the chart suggests a strong shift in market sentiment. Traders have moved from viewing a 2026 CBDC ban as a low-probability event to pricing it as nearly a 50/50 possibility. The upward trend and the significant, unexplained price spike indicate that traders are increasingly anticipating a ban will happen before the Jan 1, 2027 resolution date, despite the legislative process remaining incomplete in the Senate.
  • Executive branch explicitly opposes a CBDC and takes prohibitive actions.
  • House passed H.R. 1919, the 'Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act'.
  • House's H.R. 1919 awaits consideration in the Senate.
  • Cryptocurrency and fintech industries significantly increased federal lobbying.
  • Ranking Member Maxine Waters actively opposes a CBDC ban.
  • Macroeconomic shocks may compel Senate to prioritize a CBDC ban vote.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Yes 49.0% 49.0% Congress may pass legislation prohibiting a US central bank digital currency.

Current Context

Legislative efforts to ban CBDC are ongoing but not yet enacted. H.R. 1919, known as the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, passed the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, with a vote of 219–210. As of April 29, 2026, this bill was described as having been sent for Senate consideration, indicating it had not become law by May 8, 2026 [1][2]. Similarly, S.464, the No CBDC Act, was introduced in the 119th Congress, with its latest action noted on February 6, 2025, and has not been enacted as a 2026 ban [3].
Non-legislative indicators reflect market and political attention on a potential CBDC ban. A prediction market on Kalshi exists for "Will the US ban CBDC this year?", displaying an end date of May 26, 2026, suggesting market activity around a possible 2026 ban, despite the absence of enacted legislation [4]. Additionally, Kevin Warsh, an individual linked to the Trump administration, has publicly vowed to block CBDC initiatives during the context of a Federal Reserve chair confirmation, representing a political or expert stance rather than a confirmed congressional ban [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Whip Emmer’s CBDC Ban Legislation Sent to Senate | House Majority Whipmajoritywhip.gov
  2. 2H.R.1919 - Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
  3. 3Text - S.464 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): No CBDC Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  4. 4Will the US ban CBDC this year? Odds & Predictions 2027 - Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Kevin Warsh Vows to Block CBDC Initiatives in Fed Chair Confirmationfinancefeeds.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 06, 2026: 26.0pp spike

Price increased from 21.0% to 47.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The 26.0 percentage point spike in the "Yes" outcome on May 06, 2026, is not directly supported by the traditional news available. Reports on May 04, 2026, indicated that conservative efforts to pass a CBDC-barring measure "fell short" in Congress and were considered "dead on arrival" in the Senate [1], which would typically decrease the probability of a ban. While the House had advanced H.R. 1919 to the Senate on April 29, 2026 [2], the subsequent negative news makes this an unlikely sole driver for the spike. Without specific social media activity or alternative news releases on or immediately prior to May 06 that promoted the likelihood of a ban, the primary driver for this market movement cannot be definitively identified from the provided information. Social media appears irrelevant given the absence of any cited posts.
Sources (2)
  1. 1Crypto fight at center of FISA extension poised to escalate - AOLaol.com
  2. 2Whip Emmer’s CBDC Ban Legislation Sent to Senate | House Majority Whipmajoritywhip.gov

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to 'Yes' if legislation banning the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency becomes law after its issuance (May 5, 2026) and after January 1, 2027. Conversely, it resolves to 'No' if such legislation does not pass, or if a presidential pocket veto expires; note the market closes by January 1, 2027, at 10:00am EST. Verification of law status (requiring full chamber passage and presidential signature or veto override) will be from the White House and Library of Congress.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Yes $0.50 $0.51 49%

Market Discussion

Legislation aimed at prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC, H.R.1919, passed the House in July 2025 and advanced in the Senate in late April 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Additionally, a reported Senate housing compromise, which passed with an 84-6 vote, includes a CBDC ban that would prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar until December 31, 2030 [5][6][7]. While these legislative efforts suggest movement towards a ban, broader prediction market sentiment tends to focus on the availability of a retail CBDC before 2031 rather than a specific 2026 ban [8].

Sources (8)
  1. 1Whip Emmer’s CBDC Ban Legislation Sent to Senate | House Majority Whipmajoritywhip.gov
  2. 2H.R.1919 - Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
  3. 3Whip Emmer's CBDC Ban Legislation Sent to Senateemmer.house.gov
  4. 4Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Actcloud.house.gov
  5. 5The US Senate includes a ban on CBDCs in a major housing reformcointribune.com
  6. 6US CBDC Ban Freezes Digital Dollar Plansblocknow.com
  7. 7Congress Moves Closer To Making Fed CBDC Ban Permanent | CoinMarketCapcoinmarketcap.com
  8. 8Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031? | Manifoldmanifold.markets

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 73 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score34High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score73Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXCBDCBAN-26MAY carried 34% of its $1,650 tape (print is 45d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Yes—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
39Mixed

Some moves lacked volume

1 contract

Yes39
Mixed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Yes95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
34High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 39 across 1 legs

$100 order: 3.0c slippage (~3% of a 89c contract)

$1,000 order: 3.4c slippage (~4% of a 89c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Yes–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality39Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
39 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. What potential macroeconomic shocks or international digital currency developments in 2026 could compel the Senate to prioritize a vote on a CBDC ban?

Potential Senate CBDC Ban VotePrioritized in 2026 [1][2][3]
House-Passed CBDC Ban LegislationH.R. 1919, Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act [4]
Temporary Retail CBDC BanUntil Dec 31, 2030, via Senate housing package provision [5]
The Senate may prioritize a CBDC ban vote in 2026 due to macroeconomic shocks. Bank failures, often linked to weak capital, earnings, and risky asset portfolios, could accelerate during rapid runs, making "digital money" deployment a politically salient issue during periods of financial stress in 2026 [2]. A "major macroeconomic shock" combined with issues in private credit and repricing of risky assets could lead to recession or financial turmoil, potentially prompting policymakers to quickly enact structural payment reforms or prohibitions [3].
International digital currency progress intensifies U.S. CBDC policy urgency. In January 2026, a China-led cross-border digital currency platform experienced a surge, indicating expanding global "digital currency" infrastructure [1]. An International Monetary Fund assessment in 2025 highlighted active CBDC exploration globally, particularly for wholesale and cross-border uses, suggesting that international progress in 2026 could be perceived by U.S. lawmakers as a rapidly evolving competitive landscape [6]. This potential urgency would build on existing legislative momentum, including the House-passed H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which aims for Senate passage [4]. Furthermore, a provision in a Senate housing package would temporarily prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail CBDC until December 31, 2030 [5]. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer has publicly argued that CBDCs threaten privacy and freedom, advocating for Senate approval of an accompanying CBDC ban measure [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1China-led cross-border digital currency platform sees surge | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Bank Failures: Solvency and Liquidity | Richmond Fedrichmondfed.org
  3. 3A financial crisis may be coming - it won't be like last timebbc.com
  4. 4H.R.1919 - Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
  5. 5U.S. Senate housing bill includes CBDC bancoindesk.com
  6. 6Central Bank Digital Currency: Further Navigating Challenges and Risksimf.org
  7. 7Whip Emmer’s CBDC Ban Legislation Sent to Senate | House Majority Whipmajoritywhip.gov

7. What do Federal Reserve reports and Treasury official statements from 2025-2026 indicate about the executive branch's perceived need for a CBDC?

Executive Order DateJan 23, 2025 (EO 14178 signed, revoking EO 14067 and directing rescission of Treasury's 2022 framework) [1][2]
Agency CBDC ActionsAgencies are prohibited from establishing, issuing, or promoting CBDCs (except as required by law) [1]
Federal Reserve StanceDoes not intend to proceed with CBDC issuance without clear support from the executive branch and Congress [3]
The executive branch explicitly opposes a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), demonstrating this stance through definitive actions to prohibit related agency initiatives. On January 23, 2025, Executive Order 14178 was signed, which revoked Executive Order 14067 and directed the rescission of the Treasury's July 7, 2022 'Framework for International Engagement on Digital Assets' [1][2]. This executive order explicitly prohibits agencies from establishing, issuing, or promoting CBDCs, or continuing existing CBDC plans, unless legally mandated [1]. A Treasury fact sheet from 2025 further corroborated that the 2022 framework no longer reflects current U.S. Treasury or U.S. Government policy regarding digital assets [4].
The Federal Reserve requires clear executive and congressional support for CBDC development, viewing it as a critical condition for any potential issuance. According to an April 10, 2025, CRS In Focus report, the Federal Reserve does not intend to proceed with a CBDC without clear support from both the executive branch and Congress, ideally formalized through specific authorizing legislation [3]. This position is consistent with earlier Federal Reserve statements that emphasized broad public and cross-governmental support as a prerequisite for advancing toward a CBDC [5][3]. Furthermore, congressional materials from 2026 highlight ongoing legislative efforts to ban the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC, with proposed legislation designed to codify the January 2025 executive order and prevent future administrations from utilizing a CBDC as a 'surveillance state' tool [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  2. 2https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-02123.pdfpublic-inspection.federalregister.gov
  3. 3https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF11471/IF11471.4.pdfcongress.gov
  4. 4Fact Sheet: Framework for International Engagement on Digital Assets | U.S. Department of the Treasuryhome.treasury.gov
  5. 5The Fed - Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformationfederalreserve.gov
  6. 6Whip Emmer’s CBDC Ban Legislation Sent to Senate | House Majority Whipmajoritywhip.gov
  7. 7Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Actcloud.house.gov

8. How do the provisions and legislative support for the House's 'Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act' (H.R. 1919) compare to the Senate's 'No CBDC Act' (S.464)?

H.R. 1919 House Passage DateJuly 17, 2025 [1]
H.R. 1919 House Vote Count219–210 [1]
S. 464 Introduction DateFebruary 6, 2025 [2]
Both House and Senate bills aim to restrict U.S. central bank digital currency. The House's 'Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act' (H.R. 1919) and the Senate's 'No CBDC Act' (S.464) share the overarching goal of limiting the development and implementation of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC). However, H.R. 1919 has demonstrated greater legislative momentum, having passed the House on July 17, 2025, by a vote of 219–210 and is currently awaiting consideration in the Senate as of April 29, 2026 [1][3]. In contrast, S.464, which was introduced on February 6, 2025, remains in a Senate committee [2][4][5].
H.R. 1919 broadly prohibits Federal Reserve CBDC development and use. Specifically, H.R. 1919 explicitly bars the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from employing a CBDC for monetary policy objectives. Furthermore, it prohibits these entities from engaging in the testing, studying, development, creation, or implementation of a CBDC [6][7][8]. The bill does include an exception for “dollar-denominated” open, permissionless, private currencies, provided they uphold the same privacy protections as U.S. coins and physical currency [6][7][8].
S.464 specifically targets direct CBDC issuance to individuals and related services. The 'No CBDC Act,' as introduced, seeks to amend the Federal Reserve Act to prevent Federal Reserve banks, the Board of Governors, the Treasury, and other agencies from minting or issuing a CBDC directly to individuals, including through custodial intermediaries [2]. It also prohibits these entities from offering products or services related to CBDCs to individuals or maintaining accounts on their behalf. Additionally, S.464 places constraints on the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet holdings and its use of U.S.-government-minted digital currencies as assets [2].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Whip Emmer’s CBDC Ban Legislation Sent to Senate | House Majority Whipmajoritywhip.gov
  2. 2Text of S. 464: No CBDC Act (Introduced version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  3. 3H.R.1919 - Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) |congress.gov
  4. 4All Info - S.464 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): No CBDC Actcongress.gov
  5. 5No CBDC Act (S. 464) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  6. 6Text of H.R. 1919: Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (Reported by House Committee version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  7. 7Bills 119hr1919rh.htmgovinfo.gov
  8. 8Bills 119hr1919eh.htmgovinfo.gov

9. What data is available on financial and tech industry lobbying expenditures related to CBDC and digital currency legislation for the 119th Congress?

Crypto Industry Federal Lobbying (H1 2025)Over $18.4 million [1][2]
Total In-House Lobbying (119th Congress)$654,329 [3]
Record Quarterly Lobbying Spending$221,229 in Q1 2026 [3][4]
The cryptocurrency and financial technology (fintech) industries significantly increased their federal lobbying efforts. The cryptocurrency industry spent over $18.4 million in the first half of 2025, advocating for "light-touch" regulation and legislative success [1][2]. Concurrently, major fintech companies, including Chime, PayPal, and Block, also escalated their lobbying expenditures, focusing on broader issues like banking, cryptocurrency, and artificial intelligence [5][6].
Lobbying trends during the 119th Congress showed an upward trajectory in expenditures. Quarterly lobbying expenditures culminated in a record high of $221,229 in Q1 2026 [3][4]. Over this period, total in-house spending reached $654,329 [3]. The Digital Chamber was a prominent advocate, concentrating on establishing a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for digital assets, stablecoin regulation, and market structure clarity [3][4]. They actively lobbied on key legislation, such as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 and the GENIUS Act, with the latter becoming law [3][4][1].
External lobbying firms also reported expenditures related to digital currency legislation. In Q1 2026, Chapman and Cutler LLP reported $10,000 for "digital currency clarity legislation," and Fulcrum Public Affairs LLC reported an additional $10,000 for their work on "digital assets and blockchain technology" [3]. However, the research did not provide specific details on lobbying expenditures directly related to Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) legislation.
Sources (6)
  1. 1readsludge.com
  2. 2americanbanker.com
  3. 3legis1.com
  4. 4legis1.com
  5. 5bankingdive.com
  6. 6tucsonsentinel.com

10. What are the primary arguments and who are the key political and financial figures advocating against a CBDC ban in 2026?

Key Opponent of CBDC BanMaxine Waters [1]
Argument 1 Against BanStifles U.S. innovation and international competitiveness [1]
Argument 2 Against BanUndermines federal agency fighting inflation [1]
House Financial Services Ranking Member Maxine Waters opposes a CBDC ban. Ranking Member Maxine Waters is a key political figure actively advocating against a potential Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) ban in 2026. She has explicitly opposed an anti-CBDC bill on the House floor. The available research identifies Waters as the sole political figure explicitly advocating against such a ban [1].
Waters argues a ban stifles innovation and undermines agencies. Ranking Member Waters contends that enacting a CBDC ban would stifle U.S. innovation and competitiveness on an international scale [1]. Furthermore, she states that such legislation would undermine the federal agency most critical for combating inflation. These points constitute the primary arguments presented against a CBDC ban, and the research indicates they are the only arguments specified in opposition [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Ranking Member Waters Opposes Anti-CBDC Legislation on House Floor: “This Bill Is…An Attempt to Stifle U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness Abroad, and to Undermine the Federal Agency that is the Most Critical to Fighting Inflation.” | U.S. House Committee on Financial Services Democratsdemocrats-financialservices.house.gov

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

On 2026-04-29, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer stated that the House advanced H.R. 1919 (“Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act”) to the U.S. Senate, and it “awaits consideration in the Senate” [1]. This measure was passed by the House on 2025-07-17 [2]. H.R. 1919 is tracked as a 119th Congress bill (2025–2026) [2].
On 2026-03-12, the U.S. Senate approved a housing bill that contained an additional provision banning the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC until at least the end of 2030; the House’s response to this bill was described as uncertain [3]. A standalone Senate CBDC-limiting bill, S.464 (“No CBDC Act”), was “Introduced” on 02/06/2025 but is not enacted [4]. The existence of a prediction market explicitly asking “Will the US ban CBDC this year?” on Kalshi with a 2026 resolution date of May 26 suggests that traders view calendar-2026 as an actionable resolution window [5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 01, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (5)
  1. 1Whip Emmer’s CBDC Ban Legislation Sent to Senate | House Majority Whipmajoritywhip.gov
  2. 2H.R.1919 - Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
  3. 3U.S. Senate votes to ban CBDCs in housing bill that may face trouble in the Housecoindesk.com
  4. 4Text - S.464 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): No CBDC Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  5. 5Will the US ban CBDC this year? Odds & Predictions 2027 - Kalshikalshi.com